(Almost) Simple WW Game - Game Over

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sun May 10, 2009 8:40 pm

woot - we got ourselves a wolf...well you guys did. Nice job. To be perfectly honest, i didn't see that much wolf in him to begin with, well..maybe a bit at the end. But for all intents and purposes I was going to stick w/ grund yesterday.

But now, now we got ourselves some information to work off of. Gonna have to go through and scour his posts.

Also, if we assume that Semaj was the she-wolf.. highly likely, though not absolute.....he was directing the kills. So therefore...he killed remus in basically a tit-for-tat scenario....since remus expressed joy of taking out semaj early in games.

Then he took out scoop....now why scoop? What did scoop do to engender Semaj's wrath?

Gonna have to go back and read through semaj's interactions with everyone, and vice versa.

And feel free to suspect me, even vote for me...but, I will say this...I am a villager, andn i equate a miss for the good guys. We have two lynches left (worst case scenario) ...let's be wise how we use em.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sun May 10, 2009 8:50 pm

and ya know...yeah this has been repeated before...the more i think about it...if semaj was the shewolf...his taking out scoop, could very well have been a play for us villagers to go after Grund on Tues....I mean Grund is a threat....and maybe semaj was just hoping we'd be doing his dirty work. Hmmm....I hate to say this...but that actually raises Grund in my eyes...yeah i know welcome to yesterday.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:15 pm

Another morning, another foyer, another corpse - this time in a rather creative adaptation of the Wild Thing pose. Unagi was clearly more limber in death than he had ever been in life.

Boilerplate

Town Residents
1. Newcastle
2. Unagi
3. Chaosraven
4. Theohall
5. Grundbegriff
6. Lassr
7. Mr Bubbles
8. Scoop20906
9. Semaj
10. Remus West

Who's the wolf?
Voting majority is 3.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:52 pm

Welp it's morning. Sorry to see you go also Unagi.

I been going over some of Semaj's posts....some things that interest me.

1. Semaj was the last one to name a suspect.

Semaj wrote:Morning lads...

My main pick (Lassr) is not a werewolf.

I was up til ~6am finishing up a 25 man naxx, so I am a skoch tired.

-now does this make the case for him being the shewolf? Basically waiting till the last minute. And then hoping on to someone already named? It

Was Semaj just waiting to see if the Hewolf named him as innnocent? So then he had to take a plunge and name someone, so he chose lassr.

2. Then throw into the mix that Remus was taken out first. A case could be made of Semaj gettuing a bit of revenge and tryin to effectively hang it on CR.

3. Also that no one cleared Semaj of being the Shewolf.

These things are actually interesting pieces of the puzzle, because it leads more credence to the thought that Semaj was indeed the shewolf. A counter thought though could be that if he were the he wolf, he was waiting for the she wolf to go....but I dont think I am going to put much credence into that.

A lot of hte base evidence, speaks to me that Semaj was indeed the shewolf....so now...that leaves us w/ some information to off of. And it is this...the he-wolf, knew of Semaj's existence. Knew that Semaj was the she-wolf. We can now look back and see if any one's posts were "odd" in relation to semaj.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 1:37 am

Alas, Unagi.... A man of infinite quest.

I was going to point out that this was a payback slaughter, since Unagi led the charge on Semaj, and maybe that's correct. But a deeper wrinkle occurred to me: even a payback-worthy Unagi would've been left alive if he were still useful as cover.

I think this implies that the nightly free ride Chaosraven noted may have come to an end.

Chaosraven
Grundbegriff
Lassr
Mr Bubbles
Newcastle

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 2:35 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Alas, Unagi.... A man of infinite quest.

I was going to point out that this was a payback slaughter, since Unagi led the charge on Semaj, and maybe that's correct. But a deeper wrinkle occurred to me: even a payback-worthy Unagi would've been left alive if he were still useful as cover.

I think this implies that the nightly free ride Chaosraven noted may have come to an end.

Chaosraven

Grundbegriff

Lassr

Mr Bubbles

Newcastle

Indeed. The SheWolf pool was winnowed pretty heavily.

I'm proceeding under the impression that Semaj was SheWolf.
The Lassr and Bubbles votes suggest to me that neither is HeWolf.

So from my POV that leaves Newcastle and you, Grund.

I'm inclined to believe it's Newcastle, as I stated "yesterday", since I know he's not SheWolf, and the Vote for you seems to me like a "leave the SheWolf alone"

* Unagi acc Semaj (1) - SheWolf doesn't know her partner
* Grund acc Semaj (2) - SheWolf doesn't know her partner
* Newcastle acc Grund (1) - Newcastle is not the SheWolf, as HeWolf could try to save SheWolf
* Semaj acc Grund (2) - Semaj was either SheWolf or HeWolf
Lassr acc Semaj (3) - this tells me Lassr isn't the HeWolf, as that would make Semaj the SheWolf (since Lassr cannot be)
Lassr wd Semaj (2) - except...
* Bubbles acc Semaj (3) - this tells me Bubbles isn't the HeWolf, as that would make Semaj the SheWolf (since Bubbles cannot be)
* Chaosraven acc Semaj (4) (Unagi and Grund can fill this in with the note about SheWolf and partner)

Perhaps some digging on the Newcastle posts and the Semaj posts...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 2:52 am

Chaosraven wrote: The Lassr and Bubbles votes suggest to me that neither is HeWolf.

So from my POV that leaves Newcastle and you, Grund.

Newcastle's the most conspicuous choice. However, the fact that you're willing to give Lassr and Bubbles a pass makes me wonder about you. Lassr withdrew his vote, as you pointed out, and Bubbles voted third-- a pretty safe harbor for the He-Wolf once it's clear that his partner isn't going to survive. I find those moves moderately troubling. You find them exonerating?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:19 am

Let's just say in the scheme of things I find the rest of this worse:

Newcastle wrote:ok lets continue a grand ole tradition

semaj

pm to stessier - please can we knock off grund, he is going to be our first nights kill; ty

Interesting night zero...

Newcastle wrote:you can add this in to the...hindisight is 20/20 or otherwise known as utterly useless after the fact dealio...

Remus west was the innocent i knew about.

Adds his to the Remus pile (safe place to put it)

Newcastle wrote:you know i was going to come in here and argue that in all likelihood the hewolf would not name the shewolf as an innocent. My main line of thinking is that, if that person is lynched for whatever reason, the village will turn upon that person who "cleared" the wolf, especially if that wolf only had 1 clear on it. If there were more than 2 people who declared that person wolf free...and they showed up wolf...the wolf is the he wolf...if only 1 person, odds are higher that it's the she, but not excludes the she wolf.

So long winded way of saying, if I was the wolf I would not give the she wolf clearance. They could play the odds, but I wuold do my best to diver suspicion from them. But, they could also be thinking that if they were cleared, on what grounds would the village want to lynch them? and then the village would need 2 lynches to clear both out...need to run through the math here to see how many days and lynches we have to take this game to the edge. Could the hewolf clear the shewolf to try in effect run out the clock? Dicey play, but huge rewards.

The other scenario to lay out, why wouldn't the wolf claim that the villager they killed was in fact the name they were given? Makes them fit in and look like part of the group. Reason am stating this is we have the remus situation. In that scenario either I or theohall could be the shewolf...but Bubbles could be the She wolf...unless lassr was the he wolf and decided to try to clear up the shewolf. ...risky play

And now....why Remus? Yes I like to start there. Could it be all the night time chatter? Could it be that someone was tryin to throw some suspicions on CR and elicit a false trail? Was it CR and he wants to hide in plain sight? Could it be Semaj harboring a grudge? two great possibilities of creating a false trail, two great candidates for suspcicions...CR and Semaj.

Anyway some ramblings. Am tired, late at night. Will check in tomorrow.

What I find intriguing here is the mentions of Bubbles and Lassr as wolves, primarily because of the NotSheWolf duo therein, tho at this moment only Bubbles was free, Semaj chimes in last with "Lassr". The notation regarding the pileon naming.

Scoop20906 wrote:Not Recognized at all
Semaj
Grundbegriff
Theohall
Chaosraven
Unagi

Now, from this list, Semaj was a Wolf. Theohall and Unagi were not.
From my POV that leaves only Grund. If he's not a wolf, from his POV that leaves only me.

Newcastle wrote:3. Of the three not cleared...theo, grund, and CR...i'd be more inclined in testing Theo first....then it would either be cr or grund...and at that stage, am not sure whom i'd be more interested in testing. I think i need to go back and look at the daisy chain linkage that CR put up earlier, where he said...if one of those two are lynched and come up good, it semi proves either scoop or me. Also, I kind of want Grund and CR to be around, since I am curious to see what they can uncover.

And I am not going to vote any time soon. But if i would have to, i think i'd pop it on Theo. And am still hanging around and keeping up here. Just observing is all.

And then there's this... 3 not cleared. Semaj and Unagi left off.
Notably Semaj.

Newcastle wrote:think of it what you will, no harm in hypothezising. Guess, I should've reread more carefully what i was saying. Maybe edit it a bit more, maybe simply remove a few if's. Just too darn logical with that there Grund, you found me. I was simply thinking out loud and how I would play the wolf if I were indeed the wolf (get that there Grundy, I put if in there...wonder how many more times I could slip it in there and it rock your radar...oops - could that have been a clue). Guess that's what i get for tryin to go down the unbeaten path (oh, was that a clue grund?)

In the pot calling the kettle black department (oops coudl that be a clue?) would be curious to see what Semaj has to say though. It seems pretty clear that most people feel (and i do think they are right) that we will gain some nuggets of knowledge by tossing Theo to the wolves (oh, was that a slip grund? - ok i am having way too much fun with this). Seems that lassr, GRund, Lassr, bubbles and unagi are headed that way. while Scoops going after CR. Who's not really known yet? Semaj and myself.

I think we are overlooking the fact that the He-wolf could easily have named the shewolf as an innocent.

My question then is this - if theo comes up innocent - how do we proceeded - we only have 3 misses in this game. We would be then down to two. Do we go after Grund and CR?

IF theo comes up guilty - do we go after CR & GRund then; or do we focus fire on someone who quasi defended him (me?). Where do we go from there?

or would it be more, cross that bridge when we get to it?

It's all nice and dandy that we are looking at the logical constructs here. But I think we can also look a bit at behavior too. And yes Theo did act a bit sketchy, I will not deny that.

I guess am a little leery of a premature bandwagon, before more eggs have been broken mr. grund. (Oh, was that a clue?)

Newcastle wrote:Ya know, i just had a brain storm....

What is the one thing that wolves do not want to happen, that they can reasonably prevent from happening? -a night w/ no kill. There is nothing to gain from a night of no kill. The wolves lose a chance to winnow the field. They lose their power. It seriously bucks the trend, and gives the good guys more opportunities to find more knowledge (at least I think it does...anyway, my brains a sizzling with this idea)

Now, with that thought...how do you prevent that? Easy, the hewolf, names the she wolf as the innocent. What does this accomplish -
1. THey are then linked up with each other. They can read what the other is doing. They can try to work together, but from a distance.
2. They also have plausible deniability on both ends. The He-wolf can always claim or make the argument that it must have been the shewolf (if things go south)...was in actuality the he-wolf...ie he duplicilty switches roles w/ the slain wolf.

This is a risky move, but it does give the She-wolf a veneer of protection. The worse thing that the shewolf can have is no having any claim whatsoever, the he-wolf knows that he has a chance of being named as an innocent, the she wolf doesnt.

This also enables the wolves to stall the clock out. Granted the hewolf would have to argue his balls off, shoudl the shewolf actually be lynched.

Now how do we find this...easy...look at those people who have only 1 claim of innocence attached to them.

(copied from Grund earlier)

Cleared thrice: Remus West (by Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, theohall) (also confirmed by death)
Cleared twice: Mr Bubbles (by Lassr, Unagi); Lassr (by Scoop0906, Semaj)
Cleared once: Newcastle (by Chaosraven); Scoop20906 (by Grundbegriff)
Cleared not at all: Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Semaj, theohall, Unagi

Who fits into the singular category - Grund & CR.

So therefore potential links of She/he-wolf are -
Grund - scoop
CR- Newc.

Simply something to ponder is all. And yeah, am tryin to think how a wolf would play it.

Newcastle wrote:
theohall wrote:If being the first to post a name is what makes one guilty, guess I should've waited and been a bandwagon jumper instead. It's not like getting home from work, reading the board and posting has anything to do with when the post was written.
I think people's belief in your guilt has a lot more to do with your squirmish defense of yourself than anything else. And i am almost of the mind to pop a vote on you. But, I really would like to hear more from
Semaj

Dont get me wrong, I do see why everyone is voting for Theo, but at the same time I really dont want to see a days vote wasted. I mean what do we gain from Theo's death that builds on our knowledge base? As Scoop has pointed out, I totally see why he's popped a vote on CR.

I would like to see more from Semaj, because he's in essence gotten a free pass for today. I dont intend on voting for CR today. I might vote for Theohall, but i really would like to hear more from Semaj.

Also before the night comes...any additional info Lassr and Bubbles wish to share with the rest of us? Since in all likelihood either one of you two will be tonight's snack.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:21 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote: The Lassr and Bubbles votes suggest to me that neither is HeWolf.

So from my POV that leaves Newcastle and you, Grund.
Newcastle's the most conspicuous choice. However, the fact that you're willing to give Lassr and Bubbles a pass makes me wonder about you. Lassr withdrew his vote, as you pointed out, and Bubbles voted third-- a pretty safe harbor for the He-Wolf once it's clear that his partner isn't going to survive. I find those moves moderately troubling. You find them exonerating?

As far as the Third vote from either... it was tied up. 2 for him and 2 for you.
That 3rd vote could just have well have been dropped on you by either of them, with the easy out as being safe and the odd factors of the night kills.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:28 am

I'm willing to believe it's Newcastle.

Semaj killed Remus for two purposes. One, the banter of dying first in their recent history. Second, it frames me well.

Semaj killed Scoop for much the same reason(s), regarding who Scoop was suspecting and the implications of his death, namely that lynching Grund no longer serves a purpose and therefore makes it MORE suspicious.

Newcastle seems to be practically SCREAMING "here I am"

So, yeah, based on what I see, Lassr could easily have dropped that 3rd vote on you. So could Bubbles. And *NEITHER* of them can be SheWolf. So if either of them have fur, that makes 'em the HeWolf... voting down their partner when there was still time to go after you.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:32 am

Chaosraven wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote: The Lassr and Bubbles votes suggest to me that neither is HeWolf.

So from my POV that leaves Newcastle and you, Grund.
Newcastle's the most conspicuous choice. However, the fact that you're willing to give Lassr and Bubbles a pass makes me wonder about you. Lassr withdrew his vote, as you pointed out, and Bubbles voted third-- a pretty safe harbor for the He-Wolf once it's clear that his partner isn't going to survive. I find those moves moderately troubling. You find them exonerating?
As far as the Third vote from either... it was tied up. 2 for him and 2 for you.
That 3rd vote could just have well have been dropped on you by either of them

Only after Lassr withdrew his vote. I want to revisit the sequence. I'm ok with killing Newcastle if he's the wolf he seems to be. I hope you'll understand that I'm less ok with killing him if he's an innocent (albeit wolfish) dupe in some trick you're setting up.

Nothing personal.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:47 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:That 3rd vote could just have well have been dropped on you by either of them
Only after Lassr withdrew his vote. I want to revisit the sequence.

Town Residents
1. Newcastle
2. Unagi
3. Chaosraven
4. Theohall
5. Grundbegriff
6. Lassr
7. Mr Bubbles
8. Scoop20906
9. Semaj
10. Remus West

Wed:
Unagi accuses Semaj (2009 May 06, Wed 08:34 pm)

Thu:
Grundbegriff accuses Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 11:43 am)
Newcastle accuses Grundbegriff (2009 May 07, Thu 11:49 am)
Semaj accuses Grundbegriff (2009 May 07, Thu 04:17 pm)
Lassr accuses Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 05:05 pm)
Lassr withdraws Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 10:10 pm)

Sat:
Mr Bubbles accuses Semaj (2009 May 09, Sat 12:46 am)
Chaosraven accuses Semaj, killing him (2009 May 09, Sat 05:21 pm)

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:49 am

I dont mind being today's sacrifice on the whole. But do realize this...there will be a tomorrow. And I hope you reflect on what your moves will be for a three man game. And i hate to scream that out, and incessantly repeat the common refrain "i'm innocent." Just use my death for the maximal amount of information that you can gain.

I can one up you also CR - i think i said somewhere "in the pot calling the kettle black" dept. and i placed a vote on semaj back on day 1 I think, when we were all close to lynching theo.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:55 am

And right now, I have a hard time tryin to figure who's the wolf between the 4 of you. I really am...I got CR seeming to fit me for a noose, Grund thinking am a wolf, who knows what Lassr is thinking, and am not sure what Bubbles is gonna do.

And here's the rub, one of you 4 are evil...simply enough, and I can't seem to figure out who it is. Ya see I got reasons to suspect everyone.

1. CR - for his starting to fit the noose for me
2. Grund - His play style earlier seemed to strike me as evil
3. Lassr - i really didn't like his distinct lack of remorse when we whiffed on the THeohall lynch
4. Mr. Bubbles - dont have a read on him

And I was not even suspecitn unagi when he was alive.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:00 am

Wed:
Unagi accuses Semaj (2009 May 06, Wed 08:34 pm)

Thu:
Grundbegriff accuses Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 11:43 am)

By Thursday morning just before lunch, Semaj had 2/4 votes.

Newcastle accuses Grundbegriff (2009 May 07, Thu 11:49 am)
Semaj accuses Grundbegriff (2009 May 07, Thu 04:17 pm)

By Thursday afternoon, Grundbegriff had 2/4 votes.

Lassr accuses Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 05:05 pm)
Lassr withdraws Semaj (2009 May 07, Thu 10:10 pm)

Lassr, if a wolf, must be He (since confirmed as Not-She). He could've placed a vote against me, but he didn't. On the other hand, he placed a vote against Semaj, and then he withdrew it.

Why would the He-Wolf hesitate to tip the balance against me? The only reason I can think of on the spur of the moment is not wanting to have both furballs as votes, and adjacent, on a short list: {Newc, Semaj, Lassr, X}. But avoiding that sort of thing-- trying not to look suspicious or linked-- would also have led Lassr to avoid voting against Semaj and then withdrawing that vote. And if Lassr wasn't paying attention to that more suspicious linkage, then he probably wouldn't be paying attention to the less suspicious one. Which would mean that Lassr, if wolfy, likely wouldn't have hesitated to vote against me. Ergo, Lassr probably isn't the He-Wolf, and is probably human.

Sat:
Mr Bubbles accuses Semaj (2009 May 09, Sat 12:46 am)

Late Friday, into the wee hours, Mr Bubbles pops in and votes against Semaj. Again, he could've voted against me at that point, but didn't. But the nature of his engagement in the game is hard to read, and between Thursday morning and Friday night, Semaj had virtually outed himself. What would a He-Wolf do when confronted with a fait-accompli?

Chaosraven accuses Semaj, killing him (2009 May 09, Sat 05:21 pm)

Same question.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:01 am

Newcastle wrote:I can one up you also CR - i think i said somewhere "in the pot calling the kettle black" dept. and i placed a vote on semaj back on day 1 I think, when we were all close to lynching theo.

That's a pretty safe move, isn't it?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:05 am

Chaosraven wrote:Let's just say in the scheme of things I find the rest of this worse:

Newcastle wrote:ok lets continue a grand ole tradition

semaj

pm to stessier - please can we knock off grund, he is going to be our first nights kill; ty
Interesting night zero...

Newcastle wrote:you can add this in to the...hindisight is 20/20 or otherwise known as utterly useless after the fact dealio...

Remus west was the innocent i knew about.
Adds his to the Remus pile (safe place to put it)

[/quote]

COuple of rebuttals -

1. TheoHall also placed a vote on Semaj; again in the same vein as me. Albeit on Mon. Morning.

2. In the - If i were a wolf dept. scenario - How would my saying that Remus be innocent be the "safe place to put it"? ANywhere I put it would in fact be safe. I would have 9 people to choose from. Something bugs me about how you said this CR. I would have the knowledge, I could easily say grund, CR, Unagi, anyone for that matter, since I am playing with teh knowledge of who the wovles are.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon May 11, 2009 10:05 am

Newcastle wrote:who knows what Lassr is thinking

I do. I'm thinking you or Grund is the last wolf. You for the reasons Grund pointed out earlier. Where it appeared you were signaling the she-wolf.
Grund because of things I have mentioned. The killing of Scoop to open Chaos as the next target. Lack of traps. And now he's seems to be giving me a pass (granted he's right about me but it always disturbs me when someone claims me innocent when there is not 100% proof but I can let this one slide more because at least I am 50% innocent).

Newcastle wrote:3. Lassr - i really didn't like his distinct lack of remorse when we whiffed on the THeohall lynch

See this just looks like you trying to find something to pin on me in case the need arises for you to vote for me. Would it help if I said I cried in private? We almost always kill an innocent on the first day, I'm kind of numb to it now.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 10:39 am

Lassr wrote:
Newcastle wrote:who knows what Lassr is thinking
I do.

Can't argue with that!

I'm thinking you or Grund is the last wolf.

I'm not.

Grund because of things I have mentioned. The killing of Scoop to open Chaos as the next target. Lack of traps. And now he's seems to be giving me a pass (granted he's right about me but it always disturbs me when someone claims me innocent when there is not 100% proof but I can let this one slide more because at least I am 50% innocent).

For the record, I tilted you toward probably because of timing. However, the thing I said of Bubbles also applies to you: "between Thursday morning and Friday night, Semaj had virtually outed himself. What would a He-Wolf do when confronted with a fait-accompli?" It is possible that you would vote against your partner if you thought his death was going down no matter what. Therefore, it's also possible that you're the He-Wolf. But I was addressing what strikes me as likely, not what strikes me as certain. So you haven't been given a pass.

(Setting traps requires moving parts that are subject to (mis)interpretation. Think about it. What exactly do we have to work with here? (rhetorical question))

So yeah-- Bubbles looks more suspicious to me than you do, and Newcastle looks more suspicious to me than either of you. And Chaosraven... well, he looks either very innocent or very suspicious, depending on how willing I am to entertain the notion that he's a conniving schemer.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 10:49 am

Following up on that thought....

Chaosraven wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote: The Lassr and Bubbles votes suggest to me that neither is HeWolf.

So from my POV that leaves Newcastle and you, Grund.
Newcastle's the most conspicuous choice. However, the fact that you're willing to give Lassr and Bubbles a pass makes me wonder about you. Lassr withdrew his vote, as you pointed out, and Bubbles voted third-- a pretty safe harbor for the He-Wolf once it's clear that his partner isn't going to survive. I find those moves moderately troubling. You find them exonerating?
As far as the Third vote from either... it was tied up. 2 for him and 2 for you.
That 3rd vote could just have well have been dropped on you by either of them, with the easy out as being safe and the odd factors of the night kills.

Here's what's bugging me about this play of yours, Chaosraven. You look as if you're trying to lay groundwork for the endgame-- something only a furball would do. Not setting up today's vote, but angling toward tomorrow's.... The specific thing you're doing is this: you're exonerating Lassr and Mr Bubbles because each of them was willing to vote against Semaj in the 3rd slot of 4 rather than try to save him. (Implicit premise: the He-Wolf would try to save his partner.) However, you're holding me out as a possible furball even though I voted against Semaj (days earlier, in the 2nd slot of 4) after having helped to detect him and make the case against him.

What Is Up With That? And you were notably absent from the detection and prosecution of Semaj, coming in only at the end to cast the 4th and final vote.

(Also, that whole "Here's how things look from my perspective, but here's how they look from your perspective" thing always strikes me as lupine in its conspicuous 'fairness'.)

Ordinarily, I'd have voted against Newcastle by now just on the basis of behavior. But I'm holding back because, especially in view of your recent run of successful deductions, I believe you're capable of leading everyone up the garden path. I'd like to feel more comfortable that that's not what's going on.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Mon May 11, 2009 12:35 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
So yeah-- Bubbles looks more suspicious to me than you do, and Newcastle looks more suspicious to me than either of you. And Chaosraven... well, he looks either very innocent or very suspicious, depending on how willing I am to entertain the notion that he's a conniving schemer.

Interesting...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 1:53 pm

Mr Bubbles wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
So yeah-- Bubbles looks more suspicious to me than you do, and Newcastle looks more suspicious to me than either of you. And Chaosraven... well, he looks either very innocent or very suspicious, depending on how willing I am to entertain the notion that he's a conniving schemer.
Interesting...

Seeming suspicious is the price you pay for your almost but not quite entirely absent demeanor.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon May 11, 2009 2:20 pm

Newcastle is still my top suspect unless someone else wants to semaj all over themselves.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:13 pm

why do you suspect me lassr? just curious.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:20 pm

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:28 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
So yeah-- Bubbles looks more suspicious to me than you do, and Newcastle looks more suspicious to me than either of you. And Chaosraven... well, he looks either very innocent or very suspicious, depending on how willing I am to entertain the notion that he's a conniving schemer.
Interesting...
Seeming suspicious is the price you pay for your almost but not quite entirely absent demeanor.

Not trying to meta game here, but I'm in the middle of my paper right now. Judge tomorrow by my demeanor after I've finish up this baby and then judge me. Until that point I don't think I've done anything to garner suspicion. You, Chaos, and Newcastle are on my watch list. I will post more later when I have the time.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:53 pm

Newcastle wrote:why do you suspect me lassr? just curious.

I agree with Grund that it looked as if you were letting the she-wolf know that you were the he-wolf when you talked about the he-wolf signaling the she-wolf.
But it looked kind of obvious to me and usually that doesn't mean anything in these games as the wolves are usually not that obvious. Same as when I was looking at semaj. It seemed so obvious that he could be a wolf that it made me step back and think we were headed in the wrong direction as a wolf usually doesn't stick his neck out like that. Turns out that semaj was indeed a wolf. So now I have to look at you and think maybe you really were signaling the she-wolf.

What's eating at me more is that Chaos is being so smooth this game, too smooth and is probably the last wolf and I would have a hard time voting for him because I see nothing or bare minimum in his play that bothers me.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 5:50 pm

Lassr wrote:What's eating at me more is that Chaos is being so smooth this game, too smooth and is probably the last wolf and I would have a hard time voting for him because I see nothing or bare minimum in his play that bothers me.

Perhaps you mean "blunt" rather than "smooth"

My death will prove two things, as it would have the last couple days. I am not a Wolf, and Newcastle is not the SheWolf.
As I noted, while voting for myself the last time, this does not exonerate him from being HeWolf, which I believe him to be at this point.

Newcastle

Yes, I suspect Grund more than Lassr or Bubbles, but less than Newcastle.

theVulcan wrote:Here's what's bugging me about this play of yours, Chaosraven. You look as if you're trying to lay groundwork for the endgame-- something only a furball would do. Not setting up today's vote, but angling toward tomorrow's.... The specific thing you're doing is this: you're exonerating Lassr and Mr Bubbles because each of them was willing to vote against Semaj in the 3rd slot of 4 rather than try to save him. (Implicit premise: the He-Wolf would try to save his partner.) However, you're holding me out as a possible furball even though I voted against Semaj (days earlier, in the 2nd slot of 4) after having helped to detect him and make the case against him.

What Is Up With That? And you were notably absent from the detection and prosecution of Semaj, coming in only at the end to cast the 4th and final vote.

I did note my suspicion earlier in the game, but can't claim anything beyond my excessive gaming to explain my absence.
I don't claim any great deduction to have placed the vote on Semaj beyond he was one of the remaining SheWolf candidates.
Could just as easily have been you at 3 votes, Grund, and I probably would have voted that way.

Based on the voting, I have less indication of Furry Tendencies from Lassr and Bubbles than you.
Instead of saying "Grund, you walk like a Woman" perhaps "Bubbles and Lassr walk less like a Woman" is more appropriate, to paraphrase Robert Asprin. Substitute Wolf for Woman.

I have two pieces of info, which I was willing to sacrifice my life for, that I am not a Wolf, and Newcastle is not the SheWolf.
I'll admit to being a sneaky bastard in general...

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 5:56 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:What would a He-Wolf do when confronted with a fait-accompli?

Chaosraven accuses Semaj, killing him (2009 May 09, Sat 05:21 pm)
Same question.

I'm amazed this wasn't pointed out by Newcastle.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 6:22 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
theVulcan wrote:...you're exonerating Lassr and Mr Bubbles because each of them was willing to vote against Semaj in the 3rd slot of 4 rather than try to save him.... However, you're holding me out as a possible furball even though I voted against Semaj (days earlier, in the 2nd slot of 4) after having helped to detect him and make the case against him.

What Is Up With That?
...Based on the voting, I have less indication of Furry Tendencies from Lassr and Bubbles than you.
Instead of saying "Grund, you walk like a Woman" perhaps "Bubbles and Lassr walk less like a Woman" is more appropriate, to paraphrase Robert Asprin. Substitute Wolf for Woman.

I guess you expect folks to jump on your Newcastle prompt now. But for all your words, you didn't answer the question: How is hunting down and slaying a wolf more an indicator of FurryTendencies/WomanlyWalking than laying back and watching which way the wind blows?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 8:41 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
theVulcan wrote:...you're exonerating Lassr and Mr Bubbles because each of them was willing to vote against Semaj in the 3rd slot of 4 rather than try to save him.... However, you're holding me out as a possible furball even though I voted against Semaj (days earlier, in the 2nd slot of 4) after having helped to detect him and make the case against him.

What Is Up With That?
...Based on the voting, I have less indication of Furry Tendencies from Lassr and Bubbles than you.
Instead of saying "Grund, you walk like a Woman" perhaps "Bubbles and Lassr walk less like a Woman" is more appropriate, to paraphrase Robert Asprin. Substitute Wolf for Woman.
I guess you expect folks to jump on your Newcastle prompt now. But for all your words, you didn't answer the question: How is hunting down and slaying a wolf more an indicator of FurryTendencies/WomanlyWalking than laying back and watching which way the wind blows?

If your question is in reference to my own behavior, I have no answer for you.

I don't suspect myself.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:08 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:I guess you expect folks to jump on your Newcastle prompt now. But for all your words, you didn't answer the question: How is hunting down and slaying a wolf more an indicator of FurryTendencies/WomanlyWalking than laying back and watching which way the wind blows?
If your question is in reference to my own behavior, I have no answer for you.

I don't suspect myself.

Another dodge. I wasn't asking you to clarify why you give yourself a pass for being a slow, final vote against Semaj.

I was asking for an answer to the question I posed and repeated. I'm looking for a reason to think you're not the He-Wolf. And suggesting that I'm lupine when I'm not only human but second only to Unagi in my anti-lupine achievements and zeal makes it look as if you're trying to set me up.

That makes me very wary. I think it's entirely possible that you're being opportunistic against a Newcastle who's actually human, despite his apparent wolfishness. If we kill Newcastle and he's He, that's super. But if he's human, then you slay one of {Lassr, Mr Bubbles} tonight and turn the other against me tomorrow on the basis of the suspicions you're trumping up today. Lupine victory.

That's what I'm talking about when I say that it looks like you're trying to lay groundwork against me for the endgame.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon May 11, 2009 10:24 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:I guess you expect folks to jump on your Newcastle prompt now. But for all your words, you didn't answer the question: How is hunting down and slaying a wolf more an indicator of FurryTendencies/WomanlyWalking than laying back and watching which way the wind blows?
If your question is in reference to my own behavior, I have no answer for you.

I don't suspect myself.
Another dodge. I wasn't asking you to clarify why you give yourself a pass for being a slow, final vote against Semaj.

I was asking for an answer to the question I posed and repeated. I'm looking for a reason to think you're not the He-Wolf.

Your level of paranoia is epic

Don't have anything to offer you.

seriously, like you couldn't talk any of these people into hanging me before you...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 11:09 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:I was asking for an answer to the question I posed and repeated. I'm looking for a reason to think you're not the He-Wolf.
Your level of paranoia is epic

It seems to me that this is the turning point of the game. If we get this right, it's champagne. If not, things get very dicey.

Don't have anything to offer you. seriously, like you couldn't talk any of these people into hanging me before you...

You flatter me. How wolfish.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon May 11, 2009 11:17 pm

Fine. I'm going to take the leap of faith and follow you up the path. If you're the He-Wolf, then the cost of killing me tonight would be that you'd end up trying to persuade Lassr that Bubbles it the Mastermind, or persuading Bubbles that Lassr is the Mastermind. Because Lassr tilts toward good and Bubbles tilts toward absent, they'd see through it and kill you.

If you're a furball, you're setting up Chaosraven & Grundbegriff & {Lassr xor Mr Bubbles}. So the free ride continue after all!

Newcastle has walked like a wolf. He has talked like a wolf. He has voted and hemmed and hawed and all but howled like a wolf. Either he's an exceptionally hirsute human, or ...

Newcastle

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon May 11, 2009 11:53 pm

I'm not going to miss out on this vote. Let's see what we have here. Can we have 2 villagers acting wolfish that really are wolves?

Newcastle

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue May 12, 2009 12:42 am

good luck guys - am not a wolf. think of tomorrows move. Wish you the best. And not sure what mroe i can add.

I dont think it's bubbles, but most of you have come to that.

Top suspects
1. CR - him and grund are neck and neck but give Cr the nudge here.
2. Grund
3. Lassr

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue May 12, 2009 6:36 am

VOTING CLOSED!

Wednesday Vote Tally - Final Count

Chaos acc Newcastle (1)
Grund acc Newcastle (2)
Lassr acc Newcastle (3)

Votes needed = 3

Against Newcastle: Chaos, Grund, Lassr

No vote: Newcastle, Mr Bubbles

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue May 12, 2009 6:47 am

With Unagi's corpse still warm, Chaos ran into the town square and shouted "Newcastle did it!" Grund and Lassr looked at each other and said "Good enough for us."

Shocked, Newcastle looked around in bewilderment as he was grabbed and dragged to the town square. There he saw the tall oak with a noose with his name on it - he quite admired the skill the Rope Maker had used to integrate it without apparently weakening the rope.

Snapping out of his revere, Newcastle figured enough was enough. These mortals would finally learn the true meaning of fear - and with that, he turned into a 7' tall mass of hairy, writhing muscle and teeth. Chaosraven had just enough time to register the transformation before his throat was ripped out. Grund was the next to fall as Semaj's claws ripped through his spine. Lassr and Bubbles provided a nice finish as Newcastle fed well that night.

/*Fade to black*/

"Ahhh", thought Newcastle, "it's a good thing I dropped all those hints. The wolves will surely admire that and grant me their powers." Concentrating with all his might, he thought he felt his canines growing as the rope snapped taught.

The mob waited in quiet anticipation. 1 minute...2 minutes...5 minutes...pffft, what's the point. They could wait the whole night but this poser wasn't going to change into anything but a bloated corpse. Seriously, people, Newcastle couldn't even grow a decent beard...what was the chance he was going to howl at the moon?!?

NEWCASTLE WAS A GOOD GUY.

And now both he and Theohall are cursing you from beyond the grave.
/*Golf clap*/
I hope you are proud of yourselves.

Town Residents:
1. Newcastle
2. Unagi
3. Chaosraven
4. Theohall
5. Grundbegriff
6. Lassr
7. Mr Bubbles
8. Scoop20906
9. Semaj
10. Remus West

Boilerplate:

Night has fallen.

Oh Great Wolfy One, who is on the Menu?

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Tue May 12, 2009 9:14 am

Well two of my suspects voted for Newcastle. Interesting. True he was on my suspect list as well, but I'm kind of surprised by this vote. We're getting down to the wire and we're losing time. So who is it... Is it Grund or Chaos. Hmmmm decision.