Missing explosives [This kind of sucks]

[WAW]

Here is the Times story

The Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives - used to demolish buildings, produce missile warheads and detonate nuclear weapons - are missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations

Thats over 700,000 pounds of explosive.

The International Atomic Energy Agency publicly warned about the danger of these explosives before the war, and after the invasion it specifically told United States officials about the need to keep the explosives secured, European diplomats said in interviews last week. Administration officials say they cannot explain why the explosives were not safeguarded, beyond the fact that the occupation force was overwhelmed by the amount of munitions they found throughout the country.

How in the name of sweet jumping Jesus does D. Rumsfeld still STILL HAVE A FUCKING JOB. The Bush motto:Failure its what we do! [/b]

[Eduardo X]

Yeah, that's not so good.

[WAW]

But how will they spin it so its Clinton's fault. I thought we went to Iraq to safe guard the world from his weapons not scatter them to the four winds.

[Faldarian]

I thought they were destroying this stuff?

[Zarathud]

What amazes me is that pressure was mounting to force Rumseld out before 9/11, but afterwards Rumseld became the "golden boy" in the War against Terror.

Rumsfeld must be holding onto copies of Bush's military record. Or the pictures of Bush getting high on coke. Or the President's stained underwear from when he learned about 9/11 while reading to children.

[Unbreakable]

Or the President's stained underwear from when he learned about 9/11 while reading to children.

Or maybe it had different stains from before he learned about the airplanes...

[Eduardo X]

Where is Rumsfeld these days?
I haven't seen him since the torture scandals. Which are still being uncovered. 10 more from Guantanemo claim they were tortured, and apparently a few who were released were caught fighting against the US.
I can't imagine him staying if Bush gets elected, but then again I couldn't imagine Bush getting elected last time.

[Poleaxe]

You guys are funny.

[Austin]

You guys are funny.

You call it funny, I call it sad.

[CSL]

I thought they were destroying this stuff?

Oh it'll be destroyed for sure, just it'll kill some Iraqi or American forces along the way.

[triggercut]

The explosives didn't disappear yesterday. Think back about 12-15 months. While we were protecting oil pipelines/refineries/pumping stations that still got blown up a few times, those explosives were looted out.

Now then, these aren't just "explosives". This stuff is nasty, with a capital N. Less than 1 pound of this stuff brought down Pan Am 103. About 5-10 pounds was used in Russian housing complex bombing that brought a building down and killed 300 people. A similar amount was used in an apartment bombing in Riyadh.

The folks who stole this stuff don't have a small amount of it.

They have 380 tons.

It can be used to trigger nuclear weapons. That's why the IAEA was monitoring it. It's being used in roadside bombs now that kill US soldiers daily. It's being used in suicide bombs all over Iraq.

It disappeared on Paul Bremer's watch. Why won't he talk about it?

[RunningMn9]

The explosives didn't disappear yesterday. Think back about 12-15 months.

That's what I thought. What new happened that this year-old story is being recycled?

[Poleaxe]

When exactly did it disappear? Isn't the most likely explanation that the controling Iraqi military units took it with them before disappearing into the population?

[Little Raven]

That's what I thought. What new happened that this year-old story is being recycled?

The IAEA got involved. There's an awful lot going FUBAR in Iraq right now, (but don't worry, I'm sure we painted a school somewhere) so something minor like this can easily get overlooked for a year, but once the IAEA starts issuing press releases, even the liberal media has to pay attention.

[noun]

The explosives didn't disappear yesterday. Think back about 12-15 months.

That's what I thought. What new happened that this year-old story is being recycled?

I think it's part of the media's unspoken apology for not covering the news all that well for the past few years, so they're revisiting stuff they neglected the first time. Or maybe they're digging up all the dirt they have because the election is next week.

This was incredibly bad then, and even more so 12-15 months after the fact since we haven't found the crap yet.

Where's Rumsfeld? He and Ashcroft are both probably being kept out of sight until after the election.

[Eco-Logic]

What amazes me is that pressure was mounting to force Rumseld out before 9/11, but afterwards Rumseld became the "golden boy" in the War against Terror.

Rumsfeld must be holding onto copies of Bush's military record. Or the pictures of Bush getting high on coke. Or the President's stained underwear from when he learned about 9/11 while reading to children.

This must be that "serious debate" Exodor was talking about...

[LawBeefaroni]

The fact that these explosives were lost/stolen and that we can't find them isn't suprising. The world is a big place. Could we seriously hope to to control all munitions in a country halfway around the world? Under the best circumstances no, we can't even control it domestically. In a hostile, lawless country we have even less hope.

We can try to do the impossible, control the world, or we can try to come up with a better solution. I don't want to start the whole Global Test/France/Cowboy Bravado/UN go around, but it does help when you have more friends than enemies.

380 tons? That's quite a lot. But I'd guess it's a drop in the ocean on a global scale.

[RunningMn9]

But didn't we find out 12-15 months ago because the IAEA issued a press release?

That we haven't found it yet isn't all that surprising, it it?

That said - as I recall, we were told before the invasion that this stuff was there, and there in quantity. While I'm not privy to the list of priorities the military had at the time, it seems to me that protecting this stuff (assuming it was there when we got there) would have been a good plan.

But like always, one needs to know the context of the disappearance before whipping your pre-determined scapegoat.

To that, Poleaxe asked a good question. When exactly did the stuff go missing?

[LawBeefaroni]

While I'm not privy to the list of priorities the military had at the time, it seems to me that protecting this stuff (assuming it was there when we got there) would have been a good plan.

You're assuming the words "good" and "plan" had anything to do with Operation Iraqi Freedom. Besides, why would we want anything to do with IAEA intelligence information or advice? It was accurate. Though I could easily see 380 tons of conventional explosives being WMD.

It is a head scratcher.

[WAW]

The fact that these explosives were lost/stolen and that we can't find them isn't suprising. The world is a big place. Could we seriously hope to to control all munitions in a country halfway around the world? Under the best circumstances no, we can't even control it domestically. In a hostile, lawless country we have even less hope.

We can try to do the impossible, control the world, or we can try to come up with a better solution. I don't want to start the whole Global Test/France/Cowboy Bravado/UN go around, but it does help when you have more friends than enemies.

380 tons? That's quite a lot. But I'd guess it's a drop in the ocean on a global scale.

Picture the weight of 2 QE2 ocean liners that how much munitions are lose in Iraq. Our country men are dieing because of the sloppy Bush administration.

[RunningMn9]

You're assuming the words "good" and "plan" had anything to do with Operation Iraqi Freedom. Besides, why would we want anything to do with IAEA intelligence information or advice? It was accurate. Though I could easily see 380 tons of conventional explosives being WMD.

It is a head scratcher.

Well, dismantling the country certainly seems to have been planned well enough. Putting it back together, not so much.

The reason I asked, and presumably Poleaxe asked, is because I haven't yet (or don't recall) seeing the timeline for when this crap disappeared. When was the last time it was seen (by us or the IAEA)? If it was December 2002, well, that's a different story than if it was July 2003 - no?

Moving 380 tons of anything seems to me like it would require some awfully careful and conspicous logistics. I mean, it's not like dirty insurgents can run out of a warehouse with a ton of explosives on their back.

Can they? I don't recall seeing much in the current news stories other than "Yep. it's still missing, and it's still bad." Anyone have the chronology?

[triggercut]

One of the reasons this is a story now is that the IAEA just released their copy of memoranda sent to the DOD and White House warning them explicitly and in the strongest language possible about these explosives and the munitions dump where they were housed. The IAEA gave complete and explicit instructions that this material was extremely dangerous, and allowing it to get into the hands of insurgents or terrorists. Their stern warnings weren't heeded, and now there are 380 tons of explosives being used by Zarqawi and his ilk to blow up Americans.

[noxiousdog]

The reason I asked, and presumably Poleaxe asked, is because I haven't yet (or don't recall) seeing the timeline for when this crap disappeared. When was the last time it was seen (by us or the IAEA)? If it was December 2002, well, that's a different story than if it was July 2003 - no?

You're not supposed to ask that question. It might not be Bush's fault if the answer is Pre-March 2003.

[RunningMn9]

One of the reasons this is a story now is that the IAEA just released their copy of memoranda sent to the DOD and White House warning them explicitly and in the strongest language possible about these explosives and the munitions dump where they were housed. The IAEA gave complete and explicit instructions that this material was extremely dangerous, and allowing it to get into the hands of insurgents or terrorists. Their stern warnings weren't heeded, and now there are 380 tons of explosives being used by Zarqawi and his ilk to blow up Americans.

I get that part. Well, at least I was already aware that we were warned by the IAEA. But that still doesn't answer my question. When was the last time anyone saw them where they were supposed to be?

Do we know that Zarqawi stole it? As near as I can tell, there have been three incidents (two in Russia and one in Saudi Arabia) where similar (if not the same) explosive has been used. And in relatively small quantities.

Did I miss something where we saw the quivalent of a picture of Zarqawi standing on a big pile of this stuff, giving us the finger or something?

[triggercut]

Looks like April, 2003. Keep spinning, ND.

The Nelson Report (which requires subscription) broke the story and scooped everyone. TPM has a good summary of Chris Nelson's original story on this:

This has been rumored in Washington for several days. And now the Nelson Report has broken the story.

Some 350 tons of high explosives (RDX and HMX), which were under IAEA seal while Saddam was in power, were looted during the early days of the US occupation. Like so much else, it was just left unguarded.

Not only are these super-high-yield explosives probably being used in many, if not most, of the various suicide and car bombings in Iraq, but these particular explosives are ones used in the triggering process for nuclear weapons.

In other words, it's bad stuff.

What also emerges in the Nelson Report is that the Defense Department has been trying to keep this secret for some time. The DOD even went so far as to order the Iraqis not to inform the IAEA that the materials had gone missing. Informing the IAEA, of course, would lead to it becoming public knowledge in the United States.

I quote from Chris Nelson's summary ...

Despite pressure from DOD to keep it quiet, the IAEA and the Iraqi Interim Government this month officially reported that 350-tons of dual-use, very high explosives were looted from a previously secure site in the early days of the US occupation in 2003. Administration officials privately admit this material is likely a primary source of the lethal car bomb attacks which cause so many US and Iraqi casualties. In the first presidential candidate debate, on foreign policy, Democratic nominee John Kerry charged that captured munitions and weapons were being turned against Coalition Forces, with US troops suffering 90% of the casualties. But the specifics of the losses from the Al Qa Qaa bunker and building complex, only now being reported, were apparently unknown outside of DOD and the US occupation authorities. The Bush Administration barred the IAEA from any participation in the Iraq invasion and occupation process, and blocked IAEA requests to help in the search for WMD and other dangerous materials. As part of the UN sanctions regime still in place when the US invaded, the IAEA had “under seal” 350 tons of RDX and HDX explosives, since singly, and in combination, these materials can be used in the triggering process for a nuclear weapon. However, the explosives were allowed to remain in Iraq due to their conventional use in construction, oil pipe lines, and the like. Since the explosives went missing last year, sources say DOD and other elements in the Administration sought to block the IAEA from officially reporting the problem, and also tried to stop the new Iraqi Interim Government from cooperating with the IAEA. But finally, on Oct. 10, the Iraqi’s formally notified the IAEA, and on Oct. 15, the IAEA formally notified the Bush Administration. In press guidance prepared for release in the event news got out, but not released until today, when requested by The Nelson Report, State Department spokesmen confirmed the Iraqi government and IAEA report dates, and that 350 tons of dual use high explosives could not be accounted for. State says DOD has now authorized the Iraq Survey Group to investigate the situation, which, by all accounts, took place in April, 2003. The official press guidance claims “no indications of WMD” at the Al Qa Qaa site, but concedes that the IAEA-sealed explosives were already missing at that time. Some sources say that in addition to the explosives, 20,000 RDX-armed rockets were lost, but we cannot confirm this. However, sources do say that parts of Iraqi Scud engines, and other metal components, have turned up in scrap metal yards in Amsterdam.


1. The Summary gives you the sum total of what we have been told, starting Friday, by informed observers and directly involved officials. There was an expectation of a major newspaper story on it this morning, and perhaps also a segment on tonight’s 60 Minutes, on CBS Television. The newspaper report failed to materialize, the TV show may yet appear...stay tuned.

-- the information confirmed by the State Department Press Guidance, prepared, but not called for Friday, is important in that it provides, for the first time, explicit details on exactly what was lost to “looters” of the Al Qa Qaa bunker and building complex in the early days of the Iraq invasion and occupation, in April, 2003. The importance of the information? A highly informed official offered the assessment that, “this is the stuff the bad guys have been using to kill our troops, so you can’t ignore the political implications of this, and you would be correct to suspect that politics, or the fear of politics, played a major role in delaying the release of this information.”

Further down in this evening's edition of The Nelson Report comes this ...

3. The Iraqi authorities were caught in a similar bind, observers feel. Under heavy pressure from their sponsors in DOD and US occupation authorities not to cooperate with the IAEA, by confirming that all 350 tons of sealed explosives could not be accounted for, the Iraqi’s had to wait until the formal turnover of authority before notifying the IAEA, sources here suggest. So the Iraqis failed to act until Oct. 10, and the IAEA did not formally notified the US, by letter, until Oct. 15, according to the State Department’s official press guidance.

-- “What the hell WE were doing in the year and a half from the time we knew the stuff was gone, is obviously a huge question, and you can imagine why no one [in the Administration] wants to face up to it, certainly not before the election,” an Administration source says. Other sources also noted the language of the State Department guidance, which they interpret as seeking to deflect from the gravity of the situation in two ways: first, by listing hundreds of thousands of tons of other munitions and weapons already discovered and/or destroyed, “the Guidance has the effect, for unsophisticated listeners, of lowering the profile of ‘only’ 350 tons of RDX and HMX explosives from Al Qa Qaa”.

Note: experts were reluctant to say exactly how much of this stuff it takes for a successful road side bomb, for example, but the guesstimates were “a few pounds, at most.” In other words, “with 350 tons out there, the bombing can go on for years...”


4. Second, several highly informed sources were careful to hint, the “implications” of RDX and HMX, singly, and in combination, “are also an extremely serious issue, which is why they were under IAEA-seal”. One expert pointedly added, “and that’s all I can say on that, even on background.” Another sources noted, however, “it’s interesting that the Press Guidance seems to want us to look past any WMD implications for what was taken.”

-- another obvious question is what’s been done with the 350 tons, if anything, outside of Iraq? Our sources were unanimous in thinking that for reasons noted below, “it’s still in Iraq, and this is the most likely primary source of the explosives which have been used to blow up Humvees and in all the deadly car bomb attacks since the Occupation began.” Sources also discount any possibility except that “this was a highly organized operation using heavy equipment, and it was done right under our noses.”

(Bolded text is from the Nelson Report. The rest is Marshall's summary of it.)

[RunningMn9]

Looks like April, 2003. Keep spinning, ND.

I don't know that ND is spinning. It's a legitimate question, which your pasted text didn't answer. When was the last time the IAEA (or the US) actually saw the materials in the Al Qa Qaa complex?

Clearly the IAEA could not possibly have seen it after the invasion in March, since we booted them out/wouldn't let them participate. So have we acknowledged that the complex was chock full of 350 tons of explosives and 20,000 RDX-armed rockets in April of 2003? That we just left unguarded?

If so - I would again like to understand more about the priorities that the commanders in the field were operating under that they left that unguarded.

If instead our understanding is that the IAEA had last seen the materials before March 2003, and we discovered that the bunker was empty of said materials in April of 2003 - well, that just establishes the time frame that the heist occured during. I'm looking for a little more specific than between A and B, since we don't yet know what A is, and you're assuming that it's simply B.

[noxiousdog]

Looks like April, 2003. Keep spinning, ND.

I'm not spinning anything. You have found good reporting. I have just heard what's on NPR.

I would like to know how you can move that much material though. Al Qa Qaa isn't exactly near the border.

Let's assume they had a medium tonnage Renault truck One of those can haul only 16 tons, so even at peak load you're talking a convoy of 20+ trucks. That screams target of opportunity -even if you're not 'guarding' the facility-.

Ok, now I'm spinning

[Eduardo X]

God, this is awful.
I kept being amazed that so many people were dying in the car bombings, as typically a car bomb or suicide bomb kills a dozen or so people. But there have been some bombs that kill 200+, and I've always been shocked at those numbers.
Now I see how they could be happening.
What a terrible, terrible mess.

[triggercut]

What's interesting to me is something else JMM links to in another chunk on TPM.

Apparently one theory being pushed by Ass-Coverers (tm) on this is that the roadside bombs, car bombs, and suicide bombs that are destroying Humvees and buildings are being made from explosives recovered from artillery shells.

Nelsonreport says "posh" to that, and has sources within the DoD quashing that, too. Apparently making bombs like that is dangerous, and you'd have a lot more random explosions in non-target type areas going off due to accidents in the bomb-making process. (It's strange to call terrorist/murderers blowing themselves up making more weapons as "accidents"; let me rephrase and call them "unintended premature explosions in the manufacturing process")

Anyway, there aren't nearly enough of those, nor would resulting reconstituted bombs do the damage being caused by the roadside bombs in Iraq. Instead, JMM suggests you look at the Kashmir terrorist in India, who *do* use explosives like those stolen in roadside bombs, and who achieve similar, grisly results.

[RunningMn9]

Anyway, there aren't nearly enough of those, nor would resulting reconstituted bombs do the damage being caused by the roadside bombs in Iraq.

What about the TWENTY THOUSAND RDX-armed rockets allegedly missing (as I read it, in addition to the 350 tons of explosives)?

And were you able to find out the last time IAEA physically saw the sealed materials, and whether or not they were there when we initially investigated Al Qa Qaa?

[Eduardo X]

If you're targeting soldiers, you aren't commiting an act of terrorism. If you suicide bomb a motherfucking school or a group of children or any civilians for that matter, you are a terrorist. There is a huge difference, though it seems that quite a lot of terrorists in Iraq are also saboteurs.

[triggercut]

RM9, it sounds like everything was intact under seal when the last third-party folks left in March, 2003.

We knew they were missing by May/June of that year.

So...

1. Saddam made an illegal grab for these arms himself, just before the invasion, or

2. They were taken afterwards.

Given the amount of finger-pointing and blame-laying coming out of the White House and DoD today, I'm guessing it's 2. The DoD is blaming "multinational" forces for failing to follow-through on an assignment to keep Al Qa Qaa secure, while Scott McClellan is being just hilarious, blaming the Iraqi Provisional Government....which, um, took over in July, 2004. Someone get Scotty a drink of water.

Anyway, the playing of "blame" cards tells me there's documentation, if classified, that the stockpile was intact at some point after that area had fallen to US forces.

[Meghan]

Here's a good AP articleabout the latest cockup from the Bush Admin.

In short -

Jan 03 - IAEA inspectors look at explosives, seal them up.

early Mar 03 - IAEA inspectors inspect the vaults & seals. Everything still intact.

late Mar 03 - inspectors leave ahead of the US invasion, insisting that their work is making a difference & Iraq has no WMD.

March/ April - Coalition forces search the area of Al Qa Qa (which they knew was a weapons plant) for WMD, both during & in between battles. Pentagon spokesman now says, "They saw nnnnuthink! Absolutely NUTHink!"

Early April - tales of looting and unsecured weapons sites widespread.

The current Iraqi Science minister now says that while the Coalition forces were there, sometime around April 9, the vast quantities of explosives were taken.

While it's true that last year we were told that looting was in progress, the details of this fact are only just now being made public. The head of the IAEA said it wanted to give the US time to find these munitions before making it widely known.

The White house says the Prez and our oh so talented Sec of Defense only just found out about the details last month. Sidenote - I don't really believe that but I'm sort of grimly amused that they think this is a good excuse - that, in other words, they heard about the looting vaguely and have just wedged their thumbs all year so how can they be blamed for not finding out what went wrong, as the Preznit now says he wants to do. Right.

So that's the story. Yeah, the looting story in general is sort of old news - but the devil, as they say, is in the details and the details are entirely relevant as we ask ourselves next week, "Who do we trust the most?"

[triggercut]

RM9 (et al.) I put your very question to JMM in an email today. Here's his response to me: (The question: how do we know the stockpile was taken in April; might it have not been taken beforehand?)

"It was clearly there in March. The IAEA inspected it just before the war. According to various reports, and an AP report that I've just posted, the initial US Mil reconnaissance of the facility after the war found that all the stuff was still there and that the seals were in place. The truth I think is that there's a troubling lack of knowledge on the part of the USG on everything about this. But the available evidence seems to point overwhelmingly to the conclusion that it was grabbed post-war."

In other words, our own recon reported the stockpile still intact, still under seal, *after* the collapse of the Husseini government.

[RunningMn9]

First of all - let me just say that Meghan said cockup.

Anyway. Trig - from your last post it seems that A is Mar 3rd at the latest (since we kicked the IAEA inspectors out at that point). If the rest is true, that US forces found the weapon stores intact and still sealed post-invasion - then we have our B. But from that description it sounds like they were nabbed after B, but before May/June - is that right?

What were US forces guarding instead of the 350 tons of explosives and 20K RDX-armed rockets?

Was this during the time that we were being ridiculed for not guarding museums and the like? Or were there other duties with higher priorities?

Incidentally, if the latter is true, that's a good case for not having enough troops which would at least have some tangible evidence to show directly how more troops would have made a clear difference (short of completely overwhelming force anyway).

I suppose now would be a good time for me to find out who established that these weapons stockpiles were to be left unguarded.

[Defiant]

.

[noxiousdog]

Apparently, per usual, there is more to the story.

According to NBC, (via NRO via Instapundit)

NBC News: Miklaszewski: “April 10, 2003, only three weeks into the war, NBC News was embedded with troops from the Army's 101st Airborne as they temporarily take over the Al Qakaa weapons installation south of Baghdad. But these troops never found the nearly 380 tons of some of the most powerful conventional explosives, called HMX and RDX, which is now missing. The U.S. troops did find large stockpiles of more conventional weapons, but no HMX or RDX, so powerful less than a pound brought down Pan Am 103 in 1988, and can be used to trigger a nuclear weapon. In a letter this month, the Iraqi interim government told the International Atomic Energy Agency the high explosives were lost to theft and looting due to lack of security. Critics claim there were simply not enough U.S. troops to guard hundreds of weapons stockpiles, weapons now being used by insurgents and terrorists to wage a guerrilla war in Iraq.” (NBC’s “Nightly News,” 10/25/04)

Roger Simon has the following thoughts on the New York Times:

This kind of biased behavior is unconscionable. Although it is nowhere near as drastic, of course, it makes me think of the days of Walter Duranty, that Timesman who won a Pultizer while white-washing Stalin. How could such things happen, I always wondered. Now I know. They happen when people think they are doing the right thing for the right cause and in their zeal don't stop to consider the reality of what they are saying and writing. Yes, this is worse than Jayson Blair.

[Poleaxe]

And so, what have we learned?

1. Once again we learn that all that is written is not true even when it sounds plausible

2. John Kerry stepped into it again

[RunningMn9]

Now wait a minute. Trig - can you contact your sources with this new information? He was claiming that we found the materials when we took over the base. The embedded reporters are saying it was missing when they got there.

That's a very big difference, and a VERY important point. I would think that's something that should be gotten to the bottom of.

EDIT: Thus far, at least MSNBC is reporting this information on the timing of the theft. What says TPM or Trig's other acronym? CNN as well, although you have to dig to find the update (despite the original story being the main headline yesterday ).

Sorry, one last edit, from the CNN article:

The IAEA said that before the war it inspected the Al Qaqaa facility multiple times and verified that the material was present in January 2003.

So it was there in January. And it was gone by the time we got there in April. That's an awfully large window of opportunity to move the stuff.

[Eco-Logic]

And so, what have we learned?

1. Once again we learn that all that is written is not true even when it sounds plausible

2. John Kerry stepped into it again

Indeed.