[Poll] Will Trump Do Time?

[Holman]

Prediction time!

With four indictments so far, it's starting look like Trump could face consequences. But will he??

[LordMortis]

The stuff that sticks in a reasonable time frame will be fines and such. He'll die in a lengthy trial or be pardoned before he sees the inside of a jail. We're just not that nation. that's just my WAG though. I have no reason, other than if it drags on for a decade, we will see a president that pardons him, either because "justice" or "heal the nation."

[Blackhawk]

I'd say he'll die first, but with a 6'3, 215 pound athletic physique, he'll be fine.

I believe that if he's sentenced to prison, the appeals process would take place with him in prison (although I'm hesitant to speak up on something like that in a room full of lawyers.) With that said, he may try to make a deal for house arrest given his 'advanced age.' Maybe something with a provision that he never serve in public office...

[LawBeefaroni]

He'll die first but not necessarily because he's dying anytime soon. There will be endless delays at all stages. He may face a few sanctions for smaller stuff, as he has his entire "career", but the big stuff will be around posthumously.

[YellowKing]

Taking my role as the forum optimist and voting on him seeing the inside of a federal prison at some point.

[hepcat]

He’ll skip away with nothing but a few fines. Dems are too disorganized to prevent that, and Republicans are too afraid of him to do anything but keep sucking him off while he steers their car off a cliff.

[Alefroth]

So you don't think he'll be convicted in GA?

[Blackhawk]

So you don't think he'll be convicted in GA?

Do Florida and Georgia have an extradition treaty?

[hepcat]

So you don't think he'll be convicted in GA?

The poll asks if he’ll serve any time. He won’t.

[Carpet_pissr]

My call: Georgia and any state charges will go nowhere. He MIGHT eventually get a conviction at the federal level, but for whatever reason, will never ever EVER go to jail.

MY WORDS. MARK THEM.

Also, in terms of people saying he will die first...or hope he will die soon. He seems relatively healthy to me, and if we are comparing (we weren't but now we are)...he seems much further from death's door than does Biden. If Biden keeled over tomorrow I would not be surprised at all (sorry, Joe, it's true! Yer old, dude!!)

My vote: OTHER: NO, but can't say why not Or all are possible...not convicted, pardon, and a distant third: death (unless it takes several years, which I guess is possible)

[hepcat]

Satan won’t let Trump die until he’s done as much damage as possible to the country.

[El Guapo]

The fines / house arrest option doesn't make any sense to me. The crimes charged are ones that carry jail time. is it possible that in the documents case that (if Trump gets convicted) the trumpy judge will issue some crazy light sentence without jail time? It's *possible* but that seems like far from the most likely outcome (and that also presumes that he's not convicted in any other case).

I'm also surprised that the exile option isn't getting any votes. If Trump loses (or is way behind in the polls) in the 2024 election and gets convicted on at least one offense, I would think a long vacation overseas would start to look attractive to him. Not the most likely outcome either, but I think more likely than fines and/or house arrest.

But otherwise, I think a large part of this is tied to the 2024 election. If Trump wins, I can't imagine anyone successfully holding him accountable for anything really. If he loses, then I think the odds of him getting convicted and going to jail for at least one of these charges (and maybe future charges!) become fairly high.

[Scraper]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he fled to Russia. I know that's more difficult than it sounds especially given his Secret Service detail, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him.

[LordMortis]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he fled to Russia. I know that's more difficult than it sounds especially given his Secret Service detail, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him.

I would be surprised but not surprised. He has so much to lose (legacy and familial wealth) if he becomes a criminal political exile and so many angry violent followers that he has already harnessed and proven he can aim.

[El Guapo]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he fled to Russia. I know that's more difficult than it sounds especially given his Secret Service detail, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him.

I would be surprised but not surprised. He has so much to lose (legacy and familial wealth) if he becomes a criminal political exile and so many angry violent followers that he has already harnessed and proven he can aim.

I think it's an "end of the line" option for Trump. Not the most likely outcome I think, but not totally shocking either.

[Blackhawk]

The fines / house arrest option doesn't make any sense to me. The crimes charged are ones that carry jail time.

Since when has the norm had any impact on Trump? I don't think many here would be surprised if he somehow found a way out of the consequences, either through delay or bullshit.

[Smoove_B]

I am firmly in the crowd that believes he'll be dead before a jail cell is reality. I'm also confident that's what everyone is hoping for. Indicting a former President (at least) 4 times is one thing (a big thing, to be clear). Actually tossing one behind bars? I just can't believe we're at a societal point where that would happen.

To be clear it needs to happen and imho he should already be incarcerated, but broadly I don't think we're ready for it. Hell, I don't think we're ready to hold most elected officials to a legal standard, much less a former President.

[Blackhawk]

Am I correct that if he were sentenced to prison time and appealed, those appeals would happen with him behind bars?

[El Guapo]

The fines / house arrest option doesn't make any sense to me. The crimes charged are ones that carry jail time.

Since when has the norm had any impact on Trump? I don't think many here would be surprised if he somehow found a way out of the consequences, either through delay or bullshit.

To be clear there is a very real chance that he evades the consequences. I just don't think a sentence of fines is a likely means of him doing so.

[Smoove_B]

Am I correct that if he were sentenced to prison time and appealed, those appeals would happen with him behind bars?

For a normal person, I'd think so. But a former President? House arrest and social media!

[stessier]

Random information:
If he gets to sentencing in Georgia, he will be considered a first time offender regardless of the outcome in the other cases because GA law bases everything by your status at the time you committed the offense.

[Kurth]

Honestly, between YES and DEATH, I do not have a preference. Either would be fine with me.

[coopasonic]

Also, in terms of people saying he will die first...or hope he will die soon. He seems relatively healthy to me, and if we are comparing (we weren't but now we are)...he seems much further from death's door than does Biden. If Biden keeled over tomorrow I would not be surprised at all (sorry, Joe, it's true! Yer old, dude!!)

One of them looks his age. The other has had work done, wears makeup, is on the heavy side which hides wrinkles more and is allegedly on illicit drugs. We know he doesn't exercise, is overweight and has a terrible diet. He may look younger, but I doubt very much he is healthier.

[Holman]

Also, in terms of people saying he will die first...or hope he will die soon. He seems relatively healthy to me, and if we are comparing (we weren't but now we are)...he seems much further from death's door than does Biden. If Biden keeled over tomorrow I would not be surprised at all (sorry, Joe, it's true! Yer old, dude!!)

I have the opposite impression. Compare Biden riding a bicycle with Trump riding a golf cart for even short distances. Biden walks upright while Trump all but lurches. Compare how they handle their emotions (a good indicator of mental health).

They're only 2.5 years apart, after all. They're both old men, but Biden has taken much better care of himself.

[Alefroth]

If Biden keeled over tomorrow I would not be surprised at all (sorry, Joe, it's true! Yer old, dude!!)

But you would be if Trump did?

[Carpet_pissr]

If Biden keeled over tomorrow I would not be surprised at all (sorry, Joe, it's true! Yer old, dude!!)

But you would be if Trump did?

Of course, that was kind of my whole point. Biden seems only a few steps behind McConnell. Very frail, very weak, walking is not steady, stumbling, falling, etc.

I will admit to not having seen Trump speak in person lately (makes sense, because I actively avoid it), so he may have gone downhill since the last time I watched him. And at this age, it can happen quickly...look at Mitch...one minute he's powerfully destroying our country, then the next minute, he's stroking out in front of mics...multiple times. I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

[Daehawk]

I hope he does time. And more than a few days or weeks. I want years and years like anyone else would get. And not in some white collar or better joke of a prison where he can talk on the phone all day, use the internet, watch tv, swim, play pool, and dine on Michelin star food.

[Kraken]

I hope he does time. And more than a few days or weeks. I want years and years like anyone else would get. And not in some white collar or better joke of a prison where he can talk on the phone all day, use the internet, watch tv, swim, play pool, and dine on Michelin star food.

No gorilla channel, and no McDonalds either.

[Blackhawk]

I hope he does time. And more than a few days or weeks. I want years and years like anyone else would get.

Well, I think the maximum he's facing is a little over 700 years. Would that do?

[Alefroth]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

[Carpet_pissr]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

[Alefroth]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

Lol... sure. $20 to a charity of choice.

[LordMortis]

I think it's hard to say. TFG sure looks more healthy, is three years younger, and is psycho enough that he probably suffers very little stress, possibly none at all over anything. But his healthy lifestyle is literally golfing vs the rest of what he does. I wouldn't take the bet either way.

[Unagi]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

I think assassination should be on the table.

[El Guapo]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

I think assassination should be on the table.

Bear in mind that due to our bonkers presidential succession system that McCarthy is third in line for the presidency.

[Unagi]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

I think assassination should be on the table.

Bear in mind that due to our bonkers presidential succession system that McCarthy is third in line for the presidency.

Second in line, actually.

[Daehawk]

VP is ahead of Speaker otH

[TheMix]

VP is ahead of Speaker otH

Unagi's point is that if we are talking about a succession line, it doesn't start with the President. It starts with the VP. Which makes the Speaker 2nd, in the line of succession.

[Carpet_pissr]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

Lol... sure. $20 to a charity of choice.

It’s on! (And what a horrible, grim bet btw).

Haley is already going around cawing that a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala. Probably not a horrible strategy, in terms of effectiveness.

[Unagi]

I guess that "quick turn for worse" possibilty is why 51% of respondents said Trump would die before being jailed.

I just don't see how you view it as a quick turn for the worse. He's a poster child for heart disease.

Care to place a wager on who dies first, Trump or Biden? Natural causes only, assassination doesn’t count.

Lol... sure. $20 to a charity of choice.

It’s on! (And what a horrible, grim bet btw).

Haley is already going around cawing that a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala. Probably not a horrible strategy, in terms of effectiveness.

They used that strategy/angle the first time around as well, if you will recall.