Fight for the Future (ww) - Human's Win

[Unagi]

Punisher was a wolf!

Well, nice job there Lagom. I'm sorry I pumped the brakes.

[Lagom Lite]

And a message for the wolves:

[Unagi]

A message for the other Engineer: Don't bother protecting me.

[stessier]

[Lagom Lite]

Just hope day 2 is not a speed trial.

Unfortunately, tomorrow may become another speed trial if the wolves manage to kill a Human. Because in that scenario, they can still reach a majority by themselves using the secret vote of the surviving Beta.

If someone is killed tonight, I recommend another quick and speedy lynch tomorrow. Whoever comes out as a wolf in order to coordinate with his partner needs to be put down mercilessly and immediately by all the good guys.

The remaining Beta wolf is either Lassr or Isgrimnur.

[Unagi]

The remaining Beta wolf is either Lassr or Isgrimnur.

It's possible that Punisher was actually the Alpha wolf - and both Beta wolves are still alive.

[Punisher]

(Messed dr vortex to see if I can post something if I don't it means he said no. I think it's funnyish so at the end of the game someone remind me to post what I sent him in case I forget anout it)

[Unagi]

(Messed dr vortex to see if I can post something if I don't it means he said no. I think it's funnyish so at the end of the game someone remind me to post what I sent him in case I forget anout it)

Generally speaking, ghost are strictly restricted to

[Newcastle]

Helluva play Lagom. Helluva play.

I want to think through today. I am wondering if we should hold off on night orders to do some kibbitzing. Basically come up w/ a plan of attack for tommorow.

First what the eff happened last night? How did 2 people die? Die the sniper decide to off someone? That's the only variable that makes sense.

[Unagi]

That’s my assumption.
And killed a teammate.

[Holman]

First what the eff happened last night? How did 2 people die? Die the sniper decide to off someone? That's the only variable that makes sense.

The Wolves all vote and Scoop adjudicates their kill.

The Cyborg Commander also gets a kill every night.

The sniper gets a one-time kill, but it's unlikely that they would throw it away on a random guess on Night 0.

What's weird, really, is that there were any kills at all. Since teams can't secretly communicate, nobody had any information to go on. Every Wolf's vote had a 1/3 chance of hitting a fellow Wolf, and the Cyborg Commander must have been just guessing randomly.

Am I missing something? It really seems like Night 0 was just a random bloodbath where the dice went Wolfwise.

[Unagi]

Well, one of the wolves (at least) placed a vote and that was one of the kills - and yeah - it was (I also assume) basically random.

The other kill was was either the Sniper or the Commander using their power, and both would have the same reason not to use it on night zero. The Sniper an extra reason not to use it: because they can only use it once. One of them 'went for it' - and yeah - probably the Commander, now that I think about it.

[Lassr]

The Wolves all vote and Scoop adjudicates their kill.

The Cyborg Commander also gets a kill every night.

This is what I assume. I've read through and digested the play today. Good play Lagom. No risk, no reward, and it paid off.
I was very confused by the conversation someone had that everyone votes at night, but I see that was Punisher that said that early in the threat when confronting Lagom, so only wolf bots vote at night.

Commander kills one, which I assume is what happened, but why would he risk that night one? Or does he not have a choice and must choose?

Day went so fast that I'm not sure what we have learned about the others. Unagi did place the final kill vote on a wolf but that does not clear him. For all you old people with bad memories, it is an old wolf trick if there is no choice.

So now we wait, and everything will probably happen tomorrow, before I can even join the conversation.

[Punisher]

. For all you old people with bad memories, it is an old wolf trick if there is no choice.

[Newcastle]

@ Punisher. I am so sorry you got smoked on day 1 in super fast WW speed. If you wish to change spots so you get more time to play, you are more than welcome to take mine. [this is an act of compassion, am happy to play; but he said he was looking forward to it, and considering his medical condition. ]

One of the reasons I wanted to pump the brakes a little bit, is today went by super fast with not a lot of data to comb through. Plus has Issy even spoken up?

[Newcastle]

Well, one of the wolves (at least) placed a vote and that was one of the kills - and yeah - it was (I also assume) basically random.

The other kill was was either the Sniper or the Commander using their power, and both would have the same reason not to use it on night zero. The Sniper an extra reason not to use it: because they can only use it once. One of them 'went for it' - and yeah - probably the Commander, now that I think about it.

Agreed. 1 death = wolves; 1 death = sniper.

Yeah it was the sniper shot to take someone out that is super weird. Why use it on night 1 with no data? I mean why? The only thing I can think of is for shits and giggles. Which well...maybe was amusing to them. Is this a real life grudge? So maybe the question to be asked is: does someone hold a grudge against Moliere or Stessier that would make the person off them on night 0?

Mulling this through.

Also, what do we do tomorrow? What do we game plan if a human dies? Cyborg? Wolf? Is it worth contemplating if Punisher was alpha or beta?
Alpha: Scan goes away.
Beta: 1 extra vote goes by by.

What happens if we have to sprint?

Most likely they will target Lagom since he is "proven" so to speak.


Aside: Also have to agree w/ Unagi. Calling 2 teams a variation of bot is confusing. Maybe Beta-robo-wolf? Alpha-robo wolf?

[Punisher]

@ Punisher. I am so sorry you got smoked on day 1 in super fast WW speed. If you wish to change spots so you get more time to play, you are more than welcome to take mine. [this is an act of compassion, am happy to play; but he said he was looking forward to it, and considering his medical condition. ]

One of the reasons I wanted to pump the brakes a little bit, is today went by super fast with not a lot of data to comb through. Plus has Issy even spoken up?

I know I'm not supposed to speak but this seems safe.
Thanks! I REALLY do appreciate it but I don't think it's a good idea.
First off, I may remember things from my wolf time and not be able to separate them from whatever role you have.
Secondly it wouldn't be right. I lost fair and square. I'll explain why when the game ends or if dr V gives me permission sooner.
Thirdly it will probably confuse me more jumping into a new role.
Hopefully I Jumpstarted rhe forum games and this is only the 1st of many. While I do hope these games will help me, I also know that my condition may be permanent. In rhat case, the games still do me goid by giving me something to look forward to and helping me to engage with you guys. It's why I posted about plsying games online with you guys which I will revisit once I clean my computer out a bit.
Now back to

[Newcastle]

So the way i think right now is this:

Most likely good:
Lagom
Holman

Dude in a lounge chair:
Newcastle

Then the ... they up to no good pool:
Unagi,
Lassr,
Issy

[Holman]

Thanks, Punisher!

I also hope that we'll all see a renaissance of forum games. I'm not particularly good at these, but I've missed them.

[Unagi]

Well, one of the wolves (at least) placed a vote and that was one of the kills - and yeah - it was (I also assume) basically random.

The other kill was was either the Sniper or the Commander using their power, and both would have the same reason not to use it on night zero. The Sniper an extra reason not to use it: because they can only use it once. One of them 'went for it' - and yeah - probably the Commander, now that I think about it.

Agreed. 1 death = wolves; 1 death = sniper.

Don't say agreed, I guessed it was more likely the Commander. /smirk

[Newcastle]

Well, one of the wolves (at least) placed a vote and that was one of the kills - and yeah - it was (I also assume) basically random.

The other kill was was either the Sniper or the Commander using their power, and both would have the same reason not to use it on night zero. The Sniper an extra reason not to use it: because they can only use it once. One of them 'went for it' - and yeah - probably the Commander, now that I think about it.

Agreed. 1 death = wolves; 1 death = sniper.

Don't say agreed, I guessed it was more likely the Commander. /smirk

yeah so many boom booms to make the game go zoom zoom.

[VexingVortex22]

@ Punisher. I am so sorry you got smoked on day 1 in super fast WW speed. If you wish to change spots so you get more time to play, you are more than welcome to take mine. [this is an act of compassion, am happy to play; but he said he was looking forward to it, and considering his medical condition. ]

One of the reasons I wanted to pump the brakes a little bit, is today went by super fast with not a lot of data to comb through. Plus has Issy even spoken up?

I know I'm not supposed to speak but this seems safe.
Thanks! I REALLY do appreciate it but I don't think it's a good idea.
First off, I may remember things from my wolf time and not be able to separate them from whatever role you have.
Secondly it wouldn't be right. I lost fair and square. I'll explain why when the game ends or if dr V gives me permission sooner.
Thirdly it will probably confuse me more jumping into a new role.
Hopefully I Jumpstarted rhe forum games and this is only the 1st of many. While I do hope these games will help me, I also know that my condition may be permanent. In rhat case, the games still do me goid by giving me something to look forward to and helping me to engage with you guys. It's why I posted about plsying games online with you guys which I will revisit once I clean my computer out a bit.
Now back to

Ah, Punisher! A valiant spirit, indeed, but rules are the backbone of this chaotic cosmos! Though your voice from the great beyond is intriguing, it can disturb the natural flow of time and decisions. I must insist that you abide by our time-honored tradition. Stick to the to signal your celestial observations. Let the living write their own fate. We eagerly await your return in potential sequels, where new timelines await your influence!

[Unagi]

No risk

You say "no risk", but I was kinda surprised the Sniper didn't take a shot at Lagom when he made his original announcement. Although I suppose there is only a 1 in 3 chance he is still in the game.

[Lagom Lite]

The remaining Beta wolf is either Lassr or Isgrimnur.

It's possible that Punisher was actually the Alpha wolf - and both Beta wolves are still alive.

No.

I claimed to be the Alpha-wolf, remember? If Punisher were the real Alpha-wolf, he would have known I was lying, and would therefore not have taken my bait.

Punisher was a Beta wolf.

[Lagom Lite]

Helluva play Lagom. Helluva play.

I want to think through today. I am wondering if we should hold off on night orders to do some kibbitzing. Basically come up w/ a plan of attack for tommorow.

First what the eff happened last night? How did 2 people die? Die the sniper decide to off someone? That's the only variable that makes sense.

Be wary of Scoop's time limit though. Order must be in before 10 PM tonight or they are forfeited.

I don't understand why anyone would assume that the Sniper was the one doing the Night kill. It was obviously the Commander, using his free Night kill ability.

It makes perfect sense to me that the Wolves would use their night-time kill ability on Night 0. From a wolf perspective, there was only a 25% risk of hitting a wolf but 75% chance of hitting an enemy. In a gambling game about lying and chance, it makes very little sense to NOT try a Night kill.

As for the Cyborg, the Night 0 kill was somewhat riskier, but still worth taking. There was a 37,5% chance to hit a Wolf, with a 25% risk of killing a fellow Cyborg. Killing a Human (37,5%) runs the risk of reducing the vote pool during the day (which is dangerous because of Wolf secret votes), but Cyborgs don't otherwise care about Humans.

Cyborgs were extremely unlucky to have two players eliminated on Night 0, which is why we ended up in the situation we did, with us needing to quickly lynch a Beta wolf or lose the game. We very well could have lost yesterday if the real Alpha-wolf had been quicker or sharper.

Which is why I'm still reading Unagi as the Alpha-wolf. He's smarter than he's letting on right now, or he genuinely just has not been paying attention. Either way, the Alpha-bot:

1. Knew that I was lying yesterday, and probably hid among the good guys by voting for me.
2. Wasn't paying attention to/did not read the rules and missed the opportunity to win the game for his team.

Both points match Unagi.

[Lagom Lite]

Also, what do we do tomorrow? What do we game plan if a human dies? Cyborg? Wolf? Is it worth contemplating if Punisher was alpha or beta?

Punisher was a Beta-wolf.

If a Cyborg dies, it's game over.

If a Human dies, the wolves can attempt to do what I faked yesterday. Which means all the good guys must immediately lynch a self-outed wolf before his team-mate turns up - or if the Sniper is alive, snipe it.

[Lagom Lite]

No risk

You say "no risk", but I was kinda surprised the Sniper didn't take a shot at Lagom when he made his original announcement. Although I suppose there is only a 1 in 3 chance he is still in the game.

The Sniper would have known I was faking Alpha-wolf. I claimed to have found the Commander, which would not haven been possible with just one Cyborg left.

[Lagom Lite]

Alright, so here's a new play for y'all to consider while I sleep (I'm in the EU timezone, so I've already sent my Protect order to Scoop):

Let's dub it the Lassr/Isgrimnur Beta play - or LIB for short. I know you Americans like your acronyms.

LIB can only be attempted if the last Cyborg is either a Sniper or a Commander. So, Mr. Cyborg? If you're a Scout, you can stop reading, it's all moot.

Basically, LIB comes down to this:
1. The Cyborg submits an order to kill Lassr (or Isgrimnur) tonight.
2. Tomorrow, we lynch Isgrimnur (or Lassr) without discussion.

LIB is predicated on the assumption that the remaining Beta-bot is one of Lassr or Isgrimnur. How do I come to this conclusion?

- Yesterday, Lagom Lite came out strongly as the Alpha-Bot. Punisher, a Beta-bot, took the bait.
- Newcastle, Holman and Unagi voted against Lagom Lite. Which means they are either Human, Cyborg or Alpha-Bot, but NOT a Beta-bot. A Beta-bot would NOT vote against a self-declared, uncontested Alpha who was that close to being lynched, especially when victory was at hand.
- The only remaining players are Lassr and Isgrimnur. Meaning, one of them MUST BE a Beta-bot.

[Unagi]

The remaining Beta wolf is either Lassr or Isgrimnur.

It's possible that Punisher was actually the Alpha wolf - and both Beta wolves are still alive.

No.

I claimed to be the Alpha-wolf, remember? If Punisher were the real Alpha-wolf, he would have known I was lying, and would therefore not have taken my bait.

Punisher was a Beta wolf.

Yes, I remember. I think you are likely right, mostly because he also seemed to 'call out' to the alpha wolf at one point.

I'm just being conversational, not trying to convince anyone of some deeper plot.

[Unagi]

LIB is predicated on the assumption that the remaining Beta-bot is one of Lassr or Isgrimnur. How do I come to this conclusion?

I think this is very likely correct as well.
If the remaining Cyborg is the scout, I would suggest they scan one of them, just to "verify". Probably should go without saying, but I'll just say it anyway.

[Unagi]

No risk

You say "no risk", but I was kinda surprised the Sniper didn't take a shot at Lagom when he made his original announcement. Although I suppose there is only a 1 in 3 chance he is still in the game.

The Sniper would have known I was faking Alpha-wolf. I claimed to have found the Commander, which would not haven been possible with just one Cyborg left.

Um, yeah - that is sorta my point. Lassr said your move was "No risk"... But the Sniper might have been (may be) still in the game, and you would have made yourself a very prime target. I realize you are saying that the Sniper would have seen what you did as a lie and then concluded you must be a Non-wolf. In fact, any cyborg would have known you were lying (*unless Newcastle was the Commander, and would have likely really bought your 'wolf-lie').
I guess I just feel that (1) the wolves, as you correctly saw too, were in a position to strike fast and likely win. A beta-wolf-Lagom-Lite might have stepped up and tried to make this move - and also provide cover for the real alpha wolf.

I guess I'm stuck on the point that I thought the Sniper would save us and kill you before it all went down (this was before you revealed the lie, and admittedly while I was still flaking out on the fact that both deaths were cyborg hunters), but it could have happened - and that's not "No Risk".

[Unagi]

Both points match Unagi.

Oh, Lordy.
Just read this. I seem to read in reverse post order.

[Newcastle]

Thanks for the analysis Lagom. Lots to think about. I really dont have much more to add.

[Lassr]

My comment was no risk no reward, meaning he took a risk and was rewarded. You are twisting my words? Wolf boy.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[Isgrimnur]

I mean, the thread title still says Night Zero. And I've been covered up with work meetings for two days.

[Unagi]

No risk, no reward, and it paid off.

I suppose you are right, sorry. I honestly thought it said "no risk, high reward, and it paid off" -- and that it was a list of the reasons Lagom's play was so great. And I thought - well - it wasn't "no risk".

And, I'm seriously not clear on how that would even come across as me "setting you up".

[Unagi]

from my position, and not terribly profound...

Remaining Players:
Lassr - likely wolf **
Isgrimnur - likely wolf **
Holman - likely good *
Unagi - me
Newcastle - likely good *
Lagom Lite - very likely good ***


* - in the event that either one of them is the alpha-bot, I think they would have seen your trap and avoided it. I don't really get a strong impression that's what happened though. So, until I knew what Issy or Lassr was, I'd not try and figure that out.

** - one is likely the other beta-bot (working the assumption Punisher was beta), one the alpha-bot.

*** - more-or-less proven. I can't think of why a wolf-Lagom wouldn't have just stuck with the original move, and a wolf-Lagom (I imagine) would have waited until everyone checked in before the announcement, so as to get beta-bot support.

anyhow, it's not profound - as I said.

[VexingVortex22]

Night 1 Ends

Fellow humans, cybernetic soldiers, and cunning lycanthropic machines, the sands of time have run out for Night 1. All orders are now frozen in the timestream, etched into the cosmic ledger by Scoop20906.

Brace yourselves, for as dawn breaks on Day 2, the fallout of your nocturnal maneuvers will be laid bare for the world to witness. Have you forged bonds of steel or sewn seeds of deception? The answer lurks just beyond the horizon.

--Dr. Vortex

[VexingVortex22]

Dr. Vortex emerges from a vortex of swirling lights and mysterious energies. "Welcome to the dawn of Day Two, survivors. The night was eventful, claiming Isgrimnur, one of the Robotic Werewolves."

A pause for effect ensures the weight of his words sink in. "As the game nears its conclusion, every choice you make becomes a matter of survival or extinction."

"The sand is slipping through the hourglass. Once a majority of 3 votes is reached, that individual will be expelled, and we shall descend once again into the veiled uncertainties of the night," says Dr. Vortex, his tone tinged with caution. "Choices now have significant ramifications, echoing into the unknown corridors of time."

With a calculated smile, Dr. Vortex leans in, "Let the Day Two voting begin!"

–Dr. Vortex

======================
Remaining Players:
Lassr
Isgrimnur
Holman
Unagi
Newcastle
Punisher
Lagom Lite

Deceased Players:
Moliere
Stessier
Punisher
Isgrimnur
======================

[Lassr]

So, the commander was killed or he didn't kill last night. I assume wolf killed a wolf? ...oopsie.

I'm thinking Unagi. Was he protecting a fellow wolf yesterday and why was he twisting my words to say I said there was no risk in Lagom's play.