2022 Midterm Election

[malchior]

Of course, circuses are not exactly new. When you took me to task the other day for focusing on the unfixable, I think you were right. But if you're proposing that the problem here is that voters are generally uninformed and fixated on the short term, I think you may be doing the same thing.

Totally fair for you to see that but that's not what I meant. I'm more spreading the blame around. I still think a lot of work could be done to address it.

What I expect is that a lot of ink is going to be spilled by the press explaining this election while ignoring root issues around misinformation. And i worry they will still continue to enable it. That's where I get a bit fatalistic.

Edit: Also important, voters might be idiots but you can communicate with them. Partially where they are or lead them to where they should be. The Democrats have unfortunately shown no ability to do that or cut through the misinformation deluge. Both which are important.

[Fireball]

I don't think voters are idiots. Voters are people living complicated lives, and the factors that each voter does or doesn't weigh when choosing a candidate may make sense given the challenges they feel are most salient, but which are baffling to those of us whose life experiences are different.

We have real problems with media literacy in this country, which leads to tribalism and susceptibility to misinformation on both sides of our political divide. How many people on the left gave money to Marcus Flowers against Marjorie Taylor Green this year, for example?

If Democrats lose one of both chambers of Congress this year, that will be bad. It will highlight some real problems we have in terms of communicating our successes and our vision to the American public. It will also, likely, be a sign that we missed the narrative turn, and entered the fall trying to talk about abortion and democracy to voters in a panic about inflation and rising crime. That's on us, not on voters. We need to talk to voters about the things they care about and persuade them to also care about the things we want to talk about.

Either way, American democracy will endure, and we'll have a chance to re-elect Biden and put Democrats back in control of the House, but likely not the Senate, in two years.

[Skinypupy]

Either way, American democracy will endure, and we'll have a chance to re-elect Biden and put Democrats back in control of the House, but likely not the Senate, in two years.

I’ll admit that you’ve probably forgotten more about politics than I’ll ever know, but this feels wildly optimistic given what the GOP has already said they will do with regards to voting rights if/when they gain control.

Hopefully I’m wrong.

[Zarathud]

Trump also says he won against Biden. So overstating what he’s able to do in fixing elections is on brand.

[Pyperkub]

Either way, American democracy will endure, and we'll have a chance to re-elect Biden and put Democrats back in control of the House, but likely not the Senate, in two years.

I’ll admit that you’ve probably forgotten more about politics than I’ll ever know, but this feels wildly optimistic given what the GOP has already said they will do with regards to voting rights if/when they gain control.

Hopefully I’m wrong.

One factor complicating things for total GOP rule is that so many of the new GOP who have piled in are generally low competence grifters, and end up being sued and exposed by the other low competence grifters being normalized by today's GOP who wanted in, and got shut out or cut out.

There are also those who just aren't clever enough to pull off the lie and gain loud enough traction while managing not to end up exposing themselves to massive defamation lawsuits in their eagerness to pile on to the lies for the grift.

[LordMortis]

Either way, American democracy will endure, and we'll have a chance to re-elect Biden and put Democrats back in control of the House, but likely not the Senate, in two years.

I’ll admit that you’ve probably forgotten more about politics than I’ll ever know, but this feels wildly optimistic given what the GOP has already said they will do with regards to voting rights if/when they gain control.

Hopefully I’m wrong.

+1 and with what they've been demonstrably trying to do right on the table out in the open since 2017 and before in my state. The only positive for me is they haven't succeeded but what happens when should they get more control? (Again, judicial is my real fear, and yet I didn't do my diligence on the judicial I can vote for. )

[YellowKing]

I don't share Fireball's optimism either. I think it's understandable, because as I mentioned in the Civil War II thread, we as Americans like to believe that all problems can be fixed at the ballot box because historically that was true. That will cease to be true when we get enough election deniers in key offices to flip close results. And with the country's current level of polarization, almost every election will be close.

All that said, I'm not necessarily despondent over the likely outcome of the midterms. Strip away all of the extremism, election denial, and Trumpism, and we'd still expect Republicans to take Congress this year because that's the way it usually goes. I'm despondent about what they're going to do with that power. In past times, I could live with them simply being a source of DC gridlock. But we know with this new extremist version of the party, it's going to be a nightmarish 2 years of them simultaneously doing everything in their power to crucify their political enemies and rig every system possible to prevent Dems from ever getting Congress or the White House back. We're about to let the fox loose in the henhouse.

[Fireball]

I understand being deeply concerned. The Republican Party is terrible — and has been terrible for 20 years, though now it's uniquely dangerous.

I guess my point is that in terms of Federal races, this is not going to be a hugely impactful election. Given the Democrats' 4 seat margin from 2020, there's nothing we could have done, realistically, to keep the House this year. From a Senate perspective, the question is literally about Biden judicial appointments. I'm also more optimistic than 538 or (the very biased) RCP about our chances of holding the Senate.

The statewide elections could be a nightmare, and yes, could portend the end of American democracy in 2025 if Republicans gain a federal trifecta.

But telling people democracy is in danger doesn't help us win their votes. We have to actually propose solutions to the material problems that are driving their voting decisions. And that may also mean stepping back on some of the other issues we feel are important but which put distance between us and the median voter.

For four years we've been screaming that democracy is in danger, but offering no policy concessions to broaden our coalition. We have to try a different approach.

[Kurth]

I don't think voters are idiots. Voters are people living complicated lives, and the factors that each voter does or doesn't weigh when choosing a candidate may make sense given the challenges they feel are most salient, but which are baffling to those of us whose life experiences are different.

...

If Democrats lose one of both chambers of Congress this year, that will be bad. It will highlight some real problems we have in terms of communicating our successes and our vision to the American public. It will also, likely, be a sign that we missed the narrative turn, and entered the fall trying to talk about abortion and democracy to voters in a panic about inflation and rising crime. That's on us, not on voters. We need to talk to voters about the things they care about and persuade them to also care about the things we want to talk about.

This is exactly what I was trying to express. If the Democrats suffer significant losses (and I think they will), I think it's a cop-out to retreat to our positions of blaming the "garbage people" and "low information voters" and "stupid people" who vote for the GOP because of gas prices and inflation and rising crime and homelessness. Democrats should, instead, look at their message and ask the question Fireball is posing: How did they so badly miss the narrative turn?

A somewhat related aside: In that Oz/Fetterman piece I mentioned earlier from The Daily, another thing that struck me was the differing perceptions of Fetterman. While urban/metro voters seemed to think of Fetterman as having authenticity, other voters from small towns outside of Scranton see him as a fake. One voter described Fetterman - dressed in Carhartt hoodies and tattoed - as exactly what liberals think would appeal to rural and working class voters. Almost a caricature based on what progressive liberals imagine a working class voter would respond to. He found it laughable.

[YellowKing]

I think you're right, but it's still frustrating to watch voters turn toward fascism because the party that actually cares about them *seems* fake. Sort of like "I feel like my mechanic is not really telling me what's wrong with my car, so I'm going to take it to my chiropractor instead."

[Smoove_B]

This is exactly what I was trying to express. If the Democrats suffer significant losses (and I think they will), I think it's a cop-out to retreat to our positions of blaming the "garbage people" and "low information voters" and "stupid people" who vote for the GOP because of gas prices and inflation and rising crime and homelessness. Democrats should, instead, look at their message and ask the question Fireball is posing: How did they so badly miss the narrative turn?

I don't think Democrats are going to lose in 2022 (and 2024) because of low information voters. I think they're going to lose because there's still too many people that don't vote. More to the point nothing motivates someone to vote like the vitriol that is spewed by the GOP. Honestly, I want to believe the Roe v Wade decision from June will get people out to vote, but that was 3+ months ago; it seemingly doesn't matter now.

Can you find any election material this year that mention anything public health or health care related? Maybe it's just what I'm seeing locally, but I can't find one. Instead it's all about crime, gas prices, and rainbow fentanyl.

[Skinypupy]

A somewhat related aside: In that Oz/Fetterman piece I mentioned earlier from The Daily, another thing that struck me was the differing perceptions of Fetterman. While urban/metro voters seemed to think of Fetterman as having authenticity, other voters from small towns outside of Scranton see him as a fake. One voter described Fetterman - dressed in Carhartt hoodies and tattoed - as exactly what liberals think would appeal to rural and working class voters. Almost a caricature based on what progressive liberals imagine a working class voter would respond to. He found it laughable.

Which begs the question, what would feel authentic to these rural and working class voters? Because it sure seems that nothing short of extremist lunatics who promise the world - and then actually exacerbate their problems - seem to be having any sort of messaging success. Is there something or someone who could actually break through that barrier with some sort of credibility?

I suspect there isn't, for lots of reasons.

[Kraken]

Can you find any election material this year that mention anything public health or health care related? Maybe it's just what I'm seeing locally, but I can't find one. Instead it's all about crime, gas prices, and rainbow fentanyl.

If by election material you mean Facebook memes, I see plenty of them accusing Democrats of ruining businesses and children's educations and the holidays with their fascist lockdowns.

[Zarathud]

Having substance doesn’t matter anymore. We’re in a Twit era that celebrates followers and eyeballs. Engagement matters, and working class voters don’t think democracy ever helped them anyway. They don’t do policy, they do feelings.

Pete B’s doing the right thing — getting on FOX trying to talk to conservative voters. It’s a shame about Fetterman’s stroke. Guys like him could break through.

[LawBeefaroni]

Can you find any election material this year that mention anything public health or health care related? Maybe it's just what I'm seeing locally, but I can't find one. Instead it's all about crime, gas prices, and rainbow fentanyl.

I've seen a lot of messaging around the Inflation Reduction Act lowering prescription drug prices and capping OOP costs for Medicare enrollees.

Have yet to hear an explanation of how this will work and doesn't just shift the cost, but certainly seeing a lot of ads featuring it.

[LawBeefaroni]

A somewhat related aside: In that Oz/Fetterman piece I mentioned earlier from The Daily, another thing that struck me was the differing perceptions of Fetterman. While urban/metro voters seemed to think of Fetterman as having authenticity, other voters from small towns outside of Scranton see him as a fake. One voter described Fetterman - dressed in Carhartt hoodies and tattoed - as exactly what liberals think would appeal to rural and working class voters. Almost a caricature based on what progressive liberals imagine a working class voter would respond to. He found it laughable.

Which begs the question, what would feel authentic to these rural and working class voters? Because it sure seems that nothing short of extremist lunatics who promise the world - and then actually exacerbate their problems - seem to be having any sort of messaging success. Is there something or someone who could actually break through that barrier with some sort of credibility?

I suspect there isn't, for lots of reasons.

8-figure-plus millionaires who happen to own a farm or ranch dressing up in creased jeans and a flannel shirt and claiming nto be a simple farmer seems to do the trick.

[Little Raven]

Pacific News calls Guam for the Republicans.

Republican Sen. James Moylan defeated Democrat former Speaker Judi Won Pat in the delegate race after ballots from all 67 precincts were tabulated at about 4 a.m. Wednesday.

Moylan led by 1,648 votes.

Based on partial, unofficial results from the Guam Election Commission:

Moylan, James C. (Republican), 17,075 votes
Won Pat, Judith T. (Democrat), 15,427 votes
Moylan earned 52.19% of the votes counted to Won Pat’s 47.15%.

Moylan will fill the seat that incumbent Del. Michael San Nicolas will vacate in January.

San Nicolas lost to Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in August.

With Moylan winning the race for Guam's non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives, he will be the second Republican to be elected to the seat since Congress created it in 1972.

I....have no idea how meaningful this is. I mostly thought it was funny.

[Zaxxon]

So, having run the numbers, it seems to me that if the Democratic candidates get more votes than the Republican candidates in a majority of the races, things should be fine.

Or, in the words of the late, great John Madden, “at the end of the game the team with the most points on the board is going to win.”

Well, sure, in 2022. In 2024, not so much (just like in 2016 and 2000).

[RunningMn9]

It’s a nice democracy we had, sorry to see it go.

[RunningMn9]

So here we are on election eve. What I'm wondering is how the Repugnicans will try to steal elections that they lose, by which I mean the mechanism. For the presidential election the fudging of electors is how they plan to do it. But for the midterms there are no such electors. What is their despicable plan?

Won’t you be surprised when they outright win them without much fight?

[RunningMn9]

But I think calling people “stupid” if they vote because of gas prices and inflation is misguided.

I’m calling them stupid because they have no idea what causes gas prices and inflation to rise, they have no idea how to address rising gas prices and inflation, and they are voting for people that offer nothing in the way of solving rising gas prices or inflation - but instead are vocally committed to making most other aspects of their life worse. While not doing anything about gas prices and inflation.

This isn’t an election between people who have actively brought about rising gas prices and inflation, and those that have solid policy plans to address that. This is an election between people that happened to be in “charge” when many complex factors conspired to increase gas prices and inflation, and people who are using that to fear monger that so that they can get into power to wreak havoc.

I’m calling them stupid because they are stupid, and they fell for it. If that makes me an elitist, then I’m an elitist. And they’re stupid. I’m no longer interested in making them feel better about their ignorance and the damage it is doing to democracy in this country.

It isn’t that they don’t care about it - IT’S THAT THEY ARE THE ONES THAT ARE CAUSING ITS FAILURE.

[waitingtoconnect]

Arizona voting machines have failed in some areas . Republicans already calling it an attempted steal.

The Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate for the republicans says they will never lose another election.

Republicans may well overturn the 2020 result in the next few weeks in states like Arizona and Georgia before thanksgiving.

Once a major party says we win even if we lose democracy dies that day.

[Holman]

I voted in person today. It was a pretty straightforward ballot (no judges or minor-office races requiring research).

My wife is working at the polling place all day, and she reported that (even at 1pm) the day was shaping up towards presidential rather than midterm participation in our majority-Dem neighborhood.

[Little Raven]

I voted early, but my daughter voted (for the first time) in person after school.

Long line but it moved quickly, so she only had to wait about 20 minutes. Very involved electorate. As you make your way through the parking lot, you will be approached by various campaign volunteers hoping to make a last minute pitch, but everyone was very polite and respectful. It's a big country, and I'm sure something is going wrong somewhere, but it was smooth as glass here in North Austin.

[Little Raven]

Don't know who this Ralston guy is, but he has thoughts.

[Little Raven]

From Phoenix, according to the Times:

The Republican National Committee announced it has filed suit seeking to extend voting hours due to tabulation glitches on Tuesday.

Nice to see the GOP interested in EXPANDING the voting base for once.

[Daehawk]

We know how this will go. People are idiots. They see the economy...the here and now...and dont see or care about the long term or how shitty the candidate is. They listen to promises the person will never fulfill. Most dont care about america or the people...they care about power and money yet the public doesn't see or care.

[malchior]

Some of the early returns are bad. Like astonishingly bad. I didn't have high hopes here but thought it might be close. Unless it's all by mail - the Democratic base might have stayed home. The GOP might be riding a blowout into autocracy.

[Little Raven]

Kentucky called for Rand Paul - big surprise there.

[Skinypupy]

One way or another, we’ll get the government we deserve.

[hepcat]

Kentucky called for Rand Paul - big surprise there.

Neighbor, why have you forsaken us!?

[Little Raven]

DeSantis takes Florida in a route.

[Little Raven]

Moore wins Maryland.

[msteelers]

My supposedly blue county seems to have gone Republican for both county commission seats…

The local Democratic Party is a disaster, just like the national party.

I’m very pessimistic about everything right now. But hey, at least the weathers nice. There seems to be a bit of a breeze picking up out there.

[Jaymann]

DeSantis takes Florida in a route.

Which one, the I-4?

[WYBaugh]

It's bad gentlemen.

[Smoove_B]

I didn't doubt for a second DeSantis would be re-elected. But Rubio? Really?

[malchior]

Rubio was supposedly competitive. The hope right now is Florida is an outlier. If it isn't then pain.

[RunningMn9]

I really don’t understand how people didn’t see this coming.

[RunningMn9]

Good news though, everything that goes wrong will still be the fault of liberals (that have no power).