Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 6:32 pm
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
https://octopusoverlords.com/forum/
RECAP: Red Wings drop 7-6 shootout decision to Sabres
Detroit gains a point, but is eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention for seventh straight season
As a bonus, one team would have to draft the Leafs.It’s a topic that I’ve railed about before: The draft order, how best to determine it, and the related issues of tanking and fan bases checking out on the season. As it stands now, we encourage bad teams to lose as much as possible, assign some odds based on the final standings, and then let a barrel full of ping-pong balls sort it out. Surely, there has to be a better way.
By now, you know my view on that one. I’m a big fan of the Gold Plan, the idea that we should determine draft order based on how many points a team earns after being eliminated from the playoffs. It’s a great system, one that gives an advantage to the worst teams while still forcing them to win their way to the top pick and giving their fans a reason to cheer them on and stay engaged. Yes, there are objections, and no, none of them are especially convincing, a case I make here. The Gold Plan rules.
But there are other options. We could scrap the draft entirely. We could go to some sort of auction-based system. We could keep the lottery but change how it works, maybe by flattening the odds so three or five or all of the non-playoff teams (or even all the teams period) have the same shot at the top pick. Maybe you flip the script and give the better picks to the best non-playoff teams, instead of the worst. Maybe we steal the NBA’s idea for The Wheel that they considered but never implemented. Or maybe we even make all the bad teams stick around to compete in a postseason tournament for the top pick, and hope against hope that the exhausted players would actually try. (They wouldn’t)
All solid enough ideas, each with pros and cons. And all of them at least a tiny bit realistic. Today’s idea probably isn’t realistic. It’s also awesome. Let’s get into it.
Here are the key details:
We’re keeping the current system that gives the worst teams the best odds at the top pick, without guaranteeing it. But we’re scrapping the lottery. Not changing it, or tweaking it. It’s gone. No more ping-pong balls.
On the surface, that doesn’t make sense. If there’s no lottery, how do we decide which bad team gets the coveted No. 1 pick?
Simple: By pairing each bad team with one of the good teams that made the postseason. If the playoff team that you’re paired with wins the Stanley Cup, you win too, because you get the first pick.
Let’s assume the Blackhawks finish dead last this year, and use them as an example. Instead of getting top odds and then hoping they get lucky in the lottery, they end up getting paired with this year’s heavy Cup favorites, the Boston Bruins. If the Bruins win it all, the Hawks win the top pick.
Here’s the neat part: The actual odds don’t change all that much. Right now, whichever team finishes dead last has a 25.5 percent chance of “earning” the No. 1 pick in the lottery. Depending on what model you like, the Bruins have very similar odds of winning the Cup. (Dom’s model has recently had them bouncing between 21 percent and 24 percent.) Not quite the same, but pretty close.
Dom’s second-best team right now is the Avs, at 13 percent, almost exactly matching the second-worst team’s 13.5 percent lottery odds. Dom’s third favorite comes in at 12 percent. The lottery odds for that slot are 11.5 percent. Fourth spot is 10 percent for Dom, 9.5 percent for lottery odds.
It’s eerily close. That won’t necessarily be the case every year, but in the parity era, it’s not going to swing wildly. And of course, now that Seattle has joined the league, we’ve got a perfect split between playoff teams and non-playoff teams, with 16 of each. Everyone can pair up.
The Cup winner’s partner team get the first pick in the draft. The second pick goes to the team paired up with Cup Final loser. Third pick to whoever has the conference finals loser that lasts longest, and on down the line, for each of the first 16 picks.
By this point, I’m guessing that you think this sounds silly but find yourself weirdly intrigued. Good. Now comes the question you’re probably wondering about. How do we decide which team gets paired up with which? Not all playoff teams are created equal, so how do we decide which ones are actually better? Do we just rely on regular-season points? Go by the playoff seedings? What about factoring in playoff matchups, or injuries, or who finished strong, or all the other factors that go into deciding who should be considered Cup favorites? How do we assign the teams in a way that ends up being fair?
That’s the beauty of it. We don’t worry about any of that. Those non-playoffs teams do, because each one gets to draft its partner team.
Welcome to the draft pick draft
(OK, the name might need work. I’m open to suggestions.)
This is where the advantage for the bad teams comes in. You finish dead last, you get first pick in the draft of all the playoff teams. In our example, we’re assuming the Blackhawks would take the Bruins, but maybe they’d prefer a team with an easier path through the weaker Western Conference. That’s their choice to make. Then the 31st-place team gets to pick the best of the rest, and so on until all 16 non-playoff teams have their playoff partner.
One more thing, and I hope this goes without saying. Those picks will happen at a special draft that we’ll televise the night before the playoffs start, because dear lord would that ever make for a fascinating night.
You’re telling me you wouldn’t drop absolutely everything to be in front of your TV when each non-playoff team has to announce which team they’re taking as their draft pick ride-or-die? Imagine being a fan of one of those bad teams, arguing with your fellow fans over which team they should take, then watching teams come off the board while you’re waiting for your pick to come up. Or imagine being a fan of one of the playoff teams, sitting there simmering as you watch your team get snubbed with pick after pick while teams you know are worse teams get taken ahead of them.
How would GMs of non-playoff teams decide who to pick? Do you trust your analytics folks, or the pro scouts? Would they let history or rivalries influence their choices? If the Habs ended up last this year, would they actually take Boston? If they did, and you’re a Montreal fan, is the lure of Connor Bedard enough to make you cheer for the hated Bruins to win it all? Imagine a year where the Flames had a chance to pick the Oilers, or the Islanders got the Rangers. And how many friendships between golfing buddies would be destroyed when some GM snubbed his pal’s quasi-contender?
Now imagine watching the playoffs, knowing that both the Stanley Cup and the first pick were on the line. I wouldn’t have thought that it was possible to make the playoffs even more important than they already are, but we just did. As a fan, you might go from being vaguely aware of a contender from the other conference to knowing everything about them as you cheered them on to a Cup win that would give your team the top pick.
I don’t know about you, but I think this sounds a lot more fun than cheering for ping-pong balls or Bill Daly flipping cards for a few minutes.
That's the point. Teams with the worst records have a slight advantage, just like the lottery.
This was the slam-dunkiest easy prediction to hit. Both WAS and PIT aged out (together, of course) in the East and in the West we lost STL, CGY, and NSH. Fresh blood are NJD, NYI, VGK, SEA, and WPG.
Playoff prediction. I’m less bold about the Rangers not being the EC champs, but overall this seems an easy one to stand by.Lots of folks elevating the Rangers as the Eastern Conference favorite (not I). Carolina seems to be the number two favorite. I’ll take the field (Panthers, if pushed).
OTT and VAN both missed (but Ottawa made strides; Vancouver was a tire fire). The Pacific race was crazy tight to the very end.North of the border folks excited to promote the rise of Ottawa and Vancouver this season. The Pacific playoff race promises to be exciting down the wire.
I’m watching closely the five teams in the East trying to rise to relevance: New Jersey, Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and Columbus. Hard to rank among that group. Likely comes down to goaltending and health.
This was also a playoff prediction, but one that’s already failed. In ‘21-‘22 these were the two #1 seeds in the West. In ‘22-‘23, CGY missed the playoffs. A big miss on my part.I’d take Colorado over Calgary in the West. Kings should be a fun story. St Louis is intriguing how they respond to the off season roster losses.
The Panthers squeezed into the postseason with an amazing final third of the season, but they’re up against a biblically strong Bruins in the first round. This is a post-season prediction, and right now it’s not looking too promising.Florida over the Avs for me.
It seems that if Markstrom had eliminated even half of his league-leading 'if you're a goaltender, tend the goal!' entries this year, they'd have made it.
Indeed. Though that one hit was truly nasty. I'm amazed that the refs waived it off. He clearly bent his knees and then launched himself upward to hit the other player in the jaw/head with his shoulder. I thought that wasn't allowed. But apparently it's open season.
Yeah, I don't understand that call, either. They reviewed the 5-min major call and I thought they were going to drop it to 2, but instead it goes 4-v-4. I get that DAL reacted, but it seems off that the end result is not a DAL power play. The puck was gone, I saw a bit of a launch, as well. I don't think it was 'dirty' per se, and I think the main issue for Pavelski was the way he landed (specifically, by starting with his head), but come on. Someone takes out McDavid that way, the whole team's going to the box.TheMix wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:32 amIndeed. Though that one hit was truly nasty. I'm amazed that the refs waived it off. He clearly bent his knees and then launched himself upward to hit the other player in the jaw/head with his shoulder. I thought that wasn't allowed. But apparently it's open season.
Which leaves me a bit torn. I want them to beat up on each other so that we have an easier match up. But I really think that the league would be improved if that kind of behavior went away. IMO, the game is about puck handling, passing, skating, shooting, goal tending, and scoring. But if you listen to the announcers, it seems like most of them believe it's about HITTING, HITTING, HITTING, fighting,..........................scoring.
Had the same thought.gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:58 am I chuckled listening to color commentary from PK Subban in intermission and him defending the hit as something a defender has to do (looking for body contact to finish the check or whatever). Yeah...one of the dirtiest players of his day describing a hit as something he would do doesn't exactly ring the way he thinks.
This goal should have been seen as a bad omen.
bzzt! (thankfully)
I've seen so many of those shit the bed in every sport. It's possible to be completely dominant in every level below the big-time, then be utterly hopeless when competing with the best of the best. Since being a "franchise changer" could be interpreted both ways (he could change them to be even suckier), I rather agree with the way the Bears are going about mitigating risk and addressing multiple needs, as well a future flexibility. My concern is this guy could be Walter Payton on skates -- a phenomenal talent surrounded by dreck most of his career.
And it's not like he's entirely green, here. He's been Gretzkying the WHL and WJC for a couple years now. Is he guaranteed to be the next McDavid/Crosby/MacKinnon? No. Is it overwhelmingly likely? Yeah.
They have sold at minimum over $6 million dollars of new season ticket plans since the draft lottery.
There's always that possibility. How many cups does Connor McDavid have? (spoiler alert: none. Also, the Oilers haven't won the Cup since Gretzky/Messier years).