Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by coopasonic »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:31 am
coopasonic wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:30 am In the end, my friend at work got a pretty good deal from Chevy. He ended up swapping his 2018 Bolt for a loaded 2022 with $1500 out of pocket... less a $2500 incentive from Texas on the EV for a net gain of $1k on top of the much nicer car.
That's more like it. What was involved in obtaining that deal?
I am sure he has told me the whole story over the course of the past couple years, but I may not have put that data in long term storage. He's the one person I know that may have owned more EVs than you.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

Sounds like a great guy.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

This is super disappointing, as the Air looks like a pretty nice product.

Lucid slashes production estimates, again
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by stessier »

Well this is unfortunate - It’s possible no electric vehicles will qualify for the new tax credit.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 passed the United States Senate on Sunday and heads to the House of Representatives, where it is expected to pass easily. It contains numerous changes to the tax code, meant in large part to prevent the worst effects of climate change.

Among these is a revision to the existing tax credit for new plug-in electric vehicles. As we detailed last week, the IRA introduces income caps for the tax credit, and it will only apply to sedans that cost less than $55,000 and other EVs that cost less than $80,000. The bill also drops the 200,000 vehicle-per-OEM cap on the tax credit, which would benefit both General Motors and Tesla.

At least it will if their EV batteries are mostly made within North America, with at least 40 percent of the materials used having been extracted and processed within North America or a country with a free trade agreement. Now, instead of being based on battery capacity, half the credit ($3,750) is tied to where the pack is made, and the other half its supply chain. And that will be a problem if you're looking to buy an EV in 2023.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

I saw that (and some other interpretations not so dire for the first years of the new credit). I struggle with it because the purported goals (cleaning up / onshoring the supply chain) are good and most BEVs right now have significantly more demand than supply. Tesla / Ford are going to sell every BEV they can make in 2022 and 2023 with no problems, credit or no credit. Still not a great look to now have a better phase-in period, though. If I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:28 amIf I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
FWIW I don't think it matters much - PHEV is looking economically like its a dead end.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:34 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:28 amIf I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
FWIW I don't think it matters much - PHEV is looking economically like its a dead end.
Definitely. But having it in there at all in a bill for 2023-2032 is just silly. At least they approximately doubled the required battery size.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:35 am
malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:34 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:28 amIf I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
FWIW I don't think it matters much - PHEV is looking economically like its a dead end.
Definitely. But having it in there at all in a bill for 2023-2032 is just silly. At least they approximately doubled the required battery size.
I forgot about that. That aspect of the bill shows how twisted things got. The EV section is a complete mess and that shows how they don't understand the market/engineering issues. Doubling the battery size doesn't fix the weight/value problem that is at the heart of issue. It might actually make it worse and kill the concept dead finally.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:39 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:35 am
malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:34 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:28 amIf I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
FWIW I don't think it matters much - PHEV is looking economically like its a dead end.
Definitely. But having it in there at all in a bill for 2023-2032 is just silly. At least they approximately doubled the required battery size.
I forgot about that. That aspect of the bill shows how twisted things got. The EV section is a complete mess and that shows how they don't understand the market/engineering issues. Doubling the battery size doesn't fix the weight/value problem that is at the heart of issue. It might actually make it worse and kill the concept dead finally.
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm just saying no one will be getting a tax credit for a PHEV with a 5 kWh battery anymore.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:43 am
malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:39 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:35 am
malchior wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:34 am
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:28 amIf I'm picking quibbles with the bill, I'd have PHEVs still qualifying far above the supply chain pieces, though.
FWIW I don't think it matters much - PHEV is looking economically like its a dead end.
Definitely. But having it in there at all in a bill for 2023-2032 is just silly. At least they approximately doubled the required battery size.
I forgot about that. That aspect of the bill shows how twisted things got. The EV section is a complete mess and that shows how they don't understand the market/engineering issues. Doubling the battery size doesn't fix the weight/value problem that is at the heart of issue. It might actually make it worse and kill the concept dead finally.
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm just saying no one will be getting a tax credit for a PHEV with a 5 kWh battery anymore.
Yeah I was getting that. I was more musing on what they were thinking. The credit might entirely miss the market which is unfortunate but almost seems ... intentionally obtuse. :)
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

Interesting thread discussing the pack sourcing requirements and how easy / difficult it might be for manufacturers to meet the requirements. Focused on Tesla but applicable to any BEV maker.

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:01 pm Interesting thread discussing the pack sourcing requirements and how easy / difficult it might be for manufacturers to meet the requirements. Focused on Tesla but applicable to any BEV maker.

I'm too old to read twitter threads. Especially when they are broken down into thought fragments that don't break with the threads. My brain just can't follow. I'm glad ally'all can maintain focus but the platform is horrible for me. Reading these threads is like to trying to comprehend the worst textbooks ever.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by LordMortis »

That is night and day. (though still weirdly fragmented)
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Isgrimnur »

The tech isn't perfect yet, but it's a start.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Putting this here because it cracked me up:

When you floor the Hummer EV, the ass end squats and the steering goes light as damn near five tons of truck does its best Cigarette-boat impression, prompting involuntary profanity. It seats five, which it would describe as two and a half Insane Clown Posses. Along with all else, we're quite sure this represents the first pairing of 35-inch tires with blue-tinted T-tops. We suspect GM started with a mood board that featured Top Fuel dragsters, double-neck electric guitars, and the cast of Duck Dynasty.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Isgrimnur »

Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by em2nought »

I wonder if the government is paying for all the pimping going on for electric vehicles? People are pimping those things all over Facebook. :doh:
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by stessier »

The IRS published rules that anything before Aug 16th falls under the old rules for the tax credit... Which is what I expected, but still good to have confirmed.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

Solid set of conversations on the current state of L3 EV charging. Covers a lot of experiences on Electrify America and Tesla, both the good and bad for both. Long, but I had no trouble following at 2x speed.

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by malchior »

I made it through that last night. I have a lot of notes because I've been learning a lot about the 'green sector' over the last few weeks. I've been doing an increasing amount of cybersecurity engagements in the sector. Fun fact - I as far as I know did the first cybersecurity assessment for evGo back in 2011/2012.

The first interview with Brandon Flasch did a good job explaining why it's so bad and how to improve it. At 35 minutes they talk about the real root problem - the financials. It's too low volume right now. The path forward of simplifying maintenance makes perfect sense to me and I hope the EA and evGo's of the world move in that direction.

It was also a failure of public policy. Both evGo and EA were born out of compliance actions. Both were forced to build out networks when there was little demand and before the technology was ready. It was set up to fail and a huge own goal. I also note that this is another sector where we're at the mercy of foreign suppliers for something that is a critical national priority. We need to fix that (and there is public money to do so now).

In any case, that's why Tesla is so far ahead. Short-term they know they'll be losing money there and make it up on the car sales side. And they've probably gotten to the point where making money at scale is possible.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:43 amIt was also a failure of public policy.
Agreed. And most of the grants/incentives that have been available to this point (to my knowledge) focused on getting chargers installed, with no requirements for subsequent uptime/maintenance.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:51 am
malchior wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:43 amIt was also a failure of public policy.
Agreed. And most of the grants/incentives that have been available to this point (to my knowledge) focused on getting chargers installed, with no requirements for subsequent uptime/maintenance.
It depends on how you define subsequent. As I recall keeping in mind my last discussion with anyone at evGo was 2015ish was that they had to build and operate x amount of chargers by a date. And there was fairly tight governance, it wasn't like it was build it and check a box. During that period the stations were audited with actual vehicles to ensure they were in compliance. I'd assume EAs oversight was similar. Still Brandon in the video explains it accurately. I audited some of that tech and it was all repurposed industrial power supplies which were finicky at best. And there now is a ton of that janky stuff out there. The failure was compounded by not having a plan about how to cut over to the "post-compliance" world.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

California bans gasoline vehicles starting in 2035.

This is huge, not just for the 2035 deadline, but also because there are interim requirements of 68% in 2030 and 35% in 2026 (current is 12%). Hopefully the CARB-following states, including my own, follow this framework.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

California's FAQ is a great rapid-fire shoot-down of the typical objections to BEVs, as well.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by LordMortis »

For clarity, they are not banning gasoline vehicles but rather
California is expected to put into effect on Thursday its sweeping plan to prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035,
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

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LordMortis wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:21 pm For clarity, they are not banning gasoline vehicles but rather
California is expected to put into effect on Thursday its sweeping plan to prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035,
Yeah, sorry. I should have been clearer--it's a sales ban. It's not feasible for any location the size of California to ban existing gasoline-powered vehicles anytime 'soon.'
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

More EA road trip woes, this time from Transport Evolved. I really hope they get their crap together soon.



This is more like it:

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

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Well, maybe.

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by LordMortis »

By my reckoning, Ford is about 18 years late going all in. The time from when they launched their Escape Hybrid and I put in faith in their movement and desire to be front runners. But even so, 18 years late still puts them in front of the rest of the larger OEMs. I'm still a bit dumbfounded on how slowly traditional auto has moved, even as they have only been answering the call of the consumer in the last two decades, rather than anticipating it and then find themselves scrambling to try and answer the call today.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by stessier »

That is really interesting. Wonder what direction the ones around me will go.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

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stessier wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:10 am That is really interesting. Wonder what direction the ones around me will go.
I think my favorite part is the description of how they plan to implement no-haggle pricing--since they can't get around the dealer franchise laws, all sales will continue to happen through dealers. But those dealers selling EVs will have to set in advance a specific price for each hunk of BEV metal on their lot, that price will be posted on ford.com alongside the pricing of every other EV across all Ford dealers, and customers will be able to complete the purchase online and opt for home delivery if desired.

Basically, the 'go the Tesla route without going the Tesla route, wink wink' path.

The fast-charging piece I'm ambivalent on. Obviously dealers need some fast chargers for service work, prepping cars, etc. But customers have never, and will never, prefer to do their fast charging at dealerships.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by stessier »

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:22 am
stessier wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:10 am That is really interesting. Wonder what direction the ones around me will go.
I think my favorite part is the description of how they plan to implement no-haggle pricing--since they can't get around the dealer franchise laws, all sales will continue to happen through dealers. But those dealers selling EVs will have to set in advance a specific price for each hunk of BEV metal on their lot, that price will be posted on ford.com alongside the pricing of every other EV across all Ford dealers, and customers will be able to complete the purchase online and opt for home delivery if desired.
Yeah - I look forward to the gnashing of teeth for the poor sales people. I hope Ford is able to monitor and punish bad behavior - they have been unable to do much about the current gouging.
The fast-charging piece I'm ambivalent on. Obviously dealers need some fast chargers for service work, prepping cars, etc. But customers have never, and will never, prefer to do their fast charging at dealerships.
I think it's a good thing. As mentioned, 95% of people live within 10 miles of a dealership. More chargers are good (if they are maintained). Be nice to have other options in an emergency.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:30 am
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:22 am
stessier wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:10 am That is really interesting. Wonder what direction the ones around me will go.
I think my favorite part is the description of how they plan to implement no-haggle pricing--since they can't get around the dealer franchise laws, all sales will continue to happen through dealers. But those dealers selling EVs will have to set in advance a specific price for each hunk of BEV metal on their lot, that price will be posted on ford.com alongside the pricing of every other EV across all Ford dealers, and customers will be able to complete the purchase online and opt for home delivery if desired.
Yeah - I look forward to the gnashing of teeth for the poor sales people. I hope Ford is able to monitor and punish bad behavior - they have been unable to do much about the current gouging.
The fast-charging piece I'm ambivalent on. Obviously dealers need some fast chargers for service work, prepping cars, etc. But customers have never, and will never, prefer to do their fast charging at dealerships.
I think it's a good thing. As mentioned, 95% of people live within 10 miles of a dealership. More chargers are good (if they are maintained). Be nice to have other options in an emergency.
Definitely a good thing--more maintained chargers are good, for sure. They're just unlikely to matter much, and definitely won't be ideal if it's 1-2 publicly-available plugs, in locations not chosen specifically for convenient access / plugging specific L3 gaps. So my ambivalence relates more to the fact that dealers are being roped into spending ~$1M on these when the utility to their customers is questionable. Personally I'd rather get greater dealer buy-in with 8x 50 kW or 30x 11 kW L2 stations. That seems like a better use of money to me, and a better backstop for customers.
But I'm glad they're requiring charging in the general sense!
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Pyperkub »

I actually saw a Rivian Truck in the wild over the weekend in LA. I had to double check to make sure it wasn't a mirage!
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Pyperkub »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:18 am By my reckoning, Ford is about 18 years late going all in. The time from when they launched their Escape Hybrid and I put in faith in their movement and desire to be front runners. But even so, 18 years late still puts them in front of the rest of the larger OEMs. I'm still a bit dumbfounded on how slowly traditional auto has moved, even as they have only been answering the call of the consumer in the last two decades, rather than anticipating it and then find themselves scrambling to try and answer the call today.
ford also licensed the hybrid tech from Toyota for the Escape, and Toyota is now FAR behind just about everyone on BEV's...
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

Pyperkub wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:57 pm I actually saw a Rivian Truck in the wild over the weekend in LA. I had to double check to make sure it wasn't a mirage!
I saw 2 here in the last week--one on the road, and a diff one in my neighborhood.
Pyperkub wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:58 pmford also licensed the hybrid tech from Toyota for the Escape, and Toyota is now FAR behind just about everyone on BEV's...
The fall of Toyota from an electrified leadership position to today is very disappointing to me, as a former Toyota-only owner. I've had 3, and my extended family has had like a dozen. Down to zero now.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by JCC »

Read an interesting article about how Toyota (the world's largest auto maker) isn't as aggressively trying to go most/all EV as quckly as its competitors. I will let you guys form your own conclusions. One pretty interesting thing to me about EV's in general was this:
The Metals Co., a Canadian-based start-up, estimates there is significantly insufficient production of battery-grade nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfate to reach U.S. EV targets by 2030.

The publicly traded mining company forecasts that even if all forecast nickel sulfate production through 2030 from U.S. and free trade agreement countries went into producing electric vehicles, it would supply less than 60% of EV targets set by automakers during that timeframe.
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Re: Electric Vehicles [BEVs] [FinallyADedicatedThread]

Post by Zaxxon »

Yeah, that's one reason why you see larger EV-producing companies diversifying battery chemistries and aggressively driving toward (for one example) zero-colbalt chemistries.
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