California Recall

[malchior]

How long until this sort of rhetoric gets folks killed...again?

[Zarathud]

Fraud, pure and simple, to undermine democracy. Republicans cannot get their election participation trophies by threats.

[malchior]

I'm not even a citizen there but I can't wait for this to behind us. It'll at least dry up one very tired question line asked of every California politician during interviews. What if Newsom loses? Which no sensible politician even bothers to try to answer. It's just filler.

[Skinypupy]

Is it just me, or does it feel like they’re really starting to overplay their hands with the “every election is fraudulent” angle? The die-hards won’t ever change their minds and will continue to howl, but it feels like anyone who is not fully on board that train is starting to say “hey, wait a minute…”. At some point, people will recognize a pattern when you claim fraud in every single election you don't winning. Doubly so when you claim it before election day and before a single return is announced.

Crying wolf, and all that.

[TheMix]

Maybe that's the plan? Cry wolf now so that later they can actually steal an election. And then, when the D's raise the cry, they'll be ignored?

Though that would be some pretty forward-thinking planning.

[El Guapo]

The most plausible route that the GOP has to 'stealing' an election (not counting things like voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college) is to use voter fraud allegations as a thin smokescreen to justify things like the state legislature changing the electoral outcome in that state and/or to justify Congress voting to reject Democratic electors (if the GOP controls the House and Senate at the time). And for that to work they probably only need the Fox News base to believe that Democratic electoral fraud to be widespread and credible, and for the SCOTUS to be able to write an opinion like "The state legislature deemed the fraud allegations to be credible, and state legislatures have complete authority over their electoral processes, therefore we won't stop Wisconsin / Georgia / etc. from submitting whatever electoral college delegations that they want to."

It helps if the mainstream media also views fraud allegations with credulity (I'm sure that Politico will up until the GOP bans their publication), but it's not essential.

[Octavious]

If they had the house and the senate Trump would 100% still be in office. And they will certainly do that next time they have a shot considering all their people are totally ok with it. It's really kind of amazing how I didn't realize how shitty people were until the last 4-6 years. I mean I knew some people sucked... But now it seems like every other person.

[TheMix]

It's really kind of amazing how I didn't realize how shitty people were until the last 4-6 years. I mean I knew some people sucked... But now it seems like every other person.

Right there with you. That has been the most depressing thing around all of this. And, every time I think I've gotten a handle on how shitty people are... something worse happens.

[LordMortis]

If they had the house and the senate Trump would 100% still be in office. And they will certainly do that next time they have a shot considering all their people are totally ok with it. It's really kind of amazing how I didn't realize how shitty people were until the last 4-6 years. I mean I knew some people sucked... But now it seems like every other person.

It started to come in to focus for me during the Obama years. It became crystal clear in the last 4-6 years. I'm not sure I'll bounce back. So many tiger stripes have been revealed, everywhere. One thing after another. COVID really put the exclamation point on wanting nothing to do with no small percentage of my fellow Americans. January 6th concluded the paragraph. I don't want to read the rest.

[Daehawk]

Amen brothers.

[Pyperkub]

e "The state legislature deemed the fraud allegations to be credible, and state legislatures have complete authority over their electoral processes, therefore we won't stop Wisconsin / Georgia / etc. from submitting whatever electoral college delegations that they want to."

Note that this is what the law is in Texas now.

[Octavious]

I think that was taken out. What was passed didn't include that as far as I know. Georgia on the other hand totally did put that.

[Kasey Chang]

It's also interesting to me, how GOP has turned mask and vaccine issue into a wedge issue. They are so determined to win the short game (i.e. election 2022) they don't care how many people they kill indirectly in the process, esp. their own constituents.

[Holman]

538 and other places are looking at early exit polls and mail-in numbers, and so far all the signs are very good for defeating the recall effort.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the election called not long after the polls close (with the GOP "Stop the Steal" effort announced simultaneously).

[Jaymann]

Polls are closed, 61% NO vote so far. Another colossal Repugnican waste of money.

[Octavious]

Rigged!!!!

[naednek]

66% for No. So who do we send the $175 million bill to

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[Octavious]

I think you can stick a fork in it already...
69 percent no so far. A slaughter would be nice.

[Zaxxon]

If they had the house and the senate Trump would 100% still be in office. And they will certainly do that next time they have a shot considering all their people are totally ok with it. It's really kind of amazing how I didn't realize how shitty people were until the last 4-6 years. I mean I knew some people sucked... But now it seems like every other person.

It started to come in to focus for me during the Obama years. It became crystal clear in the last 4-6 years. I'm not sure I'll bounce back. So many tiger stripes have been revealed, everywhere. One thing after another. COVID really put the exclamation point on wanting nothing to do with no small percentage of my fellow Americans. January 6th concluded the paragraph. I don't want to read the rest.

Same.

I think you can stick a fork in it already...
69 percent no so far. A slaughter would be nice.

Whew.

[naednek]

As someone who works for CalEpa/Air Resources Board I'm relieved

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[Octavious]

And already called by multiple sites. I don't think that worked out the way they wanted it to.

[Skinypupy]

And already called by multiple sites. I don't think that worked out the way they wanted it to.

Unless their intent was to simply give them another opportunity to blare the "ELECTION FRAUD" horn again, in which case they kinda succeeded, I guess.

Although it seems fewer and fewer are listening.

[Octavious]

Well not according to the right wing sites but that doesn't mean much. Fox called it btw. Trump to declare victory in a few minutes.

[Carpet_pissr]

Trump to declare victory in a few minutes.

LOL!!

[El Guapo]

Now logically the Democrats would promptly reform the recall rules to prevent the disaster that they just averted from happening a few years from now. At a minimum by allowing the governor to be a candidate in the Part 2 election, or by separating the recall vote from the election vote, or at least by adding ranked choice voting for Part 2.

BUT I'm sure they're going to do nothing and then Conservative Lunatic Du Jour will get elected in 2025 with 15% of the vote.

[malchior]

I just caught up on the recall hot takes. Wow. Wow is all I can say. You can read opinions ranging from the oblique to the downright silly. For example, the "paper of record" somehow positioning this recall in California as a bellwether for the mid-terms. Say what? How?!? I saw people saying that it was vindication for harsh pandemic lockdowns. Call me more than a little skeptical on that front. Kasie Hunt (formerly of MSNBC and now CNN) got dragged all over Twitter for a silly thread about how this should be a warning to Democrats about the dangers of elitism. We are awash in just terrible, fact free, logic free sensationalist punditry.

As El Guapo mentioned what we learned is the Democrats should reform the process. It is too easy to start a recall. That's most of what this was. Newsom won by about the same margin that elected him.

What did we learn? California is about as polarized now as it was before the pandemic. There is a spot of good news in there. People turned out. That's a good sign but will that carry over to next year, everywhere? Possible but doubtful. I also don't think we've learned a thing about how the mid-terms will go since THEY ARE STILL REDISTRICTING NOW.

I don't have words how useless our chattering class is. The very serious people are too busy donning their clown makeup to figure out how dumb this has all become. I get they are paid to give us their opinions but they're so many empty suits there. John Legend probably got this closest to right. Not to say anything bad about John Legend, just to point out he isn't a 7-figure pundit. Sheesh.

[El Guapo]

She probably had this take ready to go before it became apparent that the result was going to be a blowout.

But has Chris Cillizza weighed in yet?

[Holman]

She probably had this take ready to go before it became apparent that the result was going to be a blowout.

But has Chris Cillizza weighed in yet?

Indeed.

[malchior]

She probably had this take ready to go before it became apparent that the result was going to be a blowout.

I actually believe she was channeling the Met Gala twitter outrage and didn't think it through.

Indeed.

The Editor-at-large at CNN for Political Reporting. It's sorta amazing how far downhill CNN has gone. And I say that looking at it from a totally different lens than say the right does. It's just a vapid noise machine at this point.

[El Guapo]

She probably had this take ready to go before it became apparent that the result was going to be a blowout.

But has Chris Cillizza weighed in yet?

Indeed.

Hmmmm. That actually isn't all that stupid (this *was* good for Elder's political career and profile). Cillizza's usually the gold standard for idiotic pundit class takes.

I'm disappointed, honestly.

[malchior]

Hmmmm. That actually isn't all that stupid (this *was* good for Elder's political career and profile). Cillizza's usually the gold standard for idiotic pundit class takes.

I'm disappointed, honestly.

I disagree - this is his standard skin deep take. It elevated his name recognition - that's it? That's the takeaway? Go ask the population at large if they've ever heard of him. I suspect it is still near zero. We know it because we follow the news. We're the outliers on that front.

Edit: Also obviously the diminishing population of Republicans in California. For the mouth breathers in the GOP elsewhere he is probably already forgotten.

[Smoove_B]

Unless their intent was to simply give them another opportunity to blare the "ELECTION FRAUD" horn again, in which case they kinda succeeded, I guess.

Well, they did cause the taxpayers somewhere around $300 million to run the recall campaign. It would be nice if the State of CA sued the CAGOP for forcing them to spend that money on a BS recall election circus.

[El Guapo]

Hmmmm. That actually isn't all that stupid (this *was* good for Elder's political career and profile). Cillizza's usually the gold standard for idiotic pundit class takes.

I'm disappointed, honestly.

I disagree - this is his standard skin deep take. It elevated his name recognition - that's it? That's the takeaway? Go ask the population at large if they've ever heard of him. I suspect it is still near zero. We know it because we follow the news. We're the outliers on that front.

Edit: Also obviously the diminishing population of Republicans in California. For the mouth breathers in the GOP elsewhere he is probably already forgotten.

Yeah, I mean this isn't particularly insightful, but it's not wrong nor aggressively stupid - it's just shallow. While Kasey Hunt's take by contrast is aggressively stupid and doesn't come anywhere near an actual point that connects with evidence, it's just fitting some narrative she wants to push (with that narrative also being aggressively stupid). I think she's got a big future at CNN.

[El Guapo]

One question I have is whether this validates the Democrats' binary "Newsom or the lunatics" approach to this recall election. Newsom v. Elder, which this mostly came down to, is almost exactly what the state democrats were hoping for. Though obviously they took some significant risks with this approach as well.

[malchior]

One question I have is whether this validates the Democrats' binary "Newsom or the lunatics" approach to this recall election. Newsom v. Elder, which this mostly came down to, is almost exactly what the state democrats were hoping for. Though obviously they took some significant risks with this approach as well.

I still think it was too big a risk. They risked lives to be frank. If Elder or some other GOP moron gets elected then more people die. That seems like straightforward forecasting to me. The alternate messaging would have been easy. Maybe they're handicapping their ineptitude at messaging.

FWIW I think there was a safer alternative and an opportunity squandered to position an up and comer for the future. Another factor against this strategy was that they made this call when early polling wasn't nearly this lopsided. And it only looks ok because of the result versus being ok as a real strategy.

[Octavious]

The thing I'm most pissed about is Mike Piazza. First he was at the Trump rally and now he does a PSA for Elder. You were my favorite Met... Why man??? Whyyyyyyyyyy

[naednek]

Our local realtor knows how to market himself

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[Defiant]

Now logically the Democrats would promptly reform the recall rules to prevent the disaster that they just averted from happening a few years from now. At a minimum by allowing the governor to be a candidate in the Part 2 election, or by separating the recall vote from the election vote, or at least by adding ranked choice voting for Part 2.

It would be weird for a recall to pass, but for the person being recalled to win the replacement vote (I suppose that could happen with ranked choice voting, though. Or just because voters can be illogical)

Honestly, it seems to me it would be better to just have a successfully recalled governor replaced by the Lt Governor (or whomever is second in line). That would mean less partisan motivation to start a recall election.

[Daehawk]

[malchior]

It would be weird for a recall to pass, but for the person being recalled to win the replacement vote (I suppose that could happen with ranked choice voting, though. Or just because voters can be illogical)

It's a plurality of the voters. Which is why some think the recall mechanism might be unconstitutional because it doesn't ensure the person with the most votes wins. As a thought experiment: 52% could vote to recall. That'd be an implicit vote of 48% for the current governor. Their successor could win with 1% of the votes in a highly split field. Some legal scholars think that's not constitutional.

When the last recall happened in 2003, Schwarzenegger got more votes than the people who voted to *not recall* and the question didn't come up. The Democratic leadership messaged the electorate to vote No and leave the other question blank. This message was likely intended to force that democratic principles issue. Which seems to me to be a pretty dicey gamble with such a highly partisan US SCOTUS.

Honestly, it seems to me it would be better to just have a successfully recalled governor replaced by the Lt Governor (or whomever is second in line). That would mean less partisan motivation to start a recall election.

I wholly agree and that's what most states do if they have such a mechanism.