Octopus Overlords

Election Day begins and we have the first results.

From Dixville Notch

Five votes for Joe Biden.

And no votes for Trump


Now we just have to wait 2-3 weeks for the counting to end.

I'll go ahead and declare MA for Biden by around 40 points. In a real shocker, Markey will beat what's-his-name by a similar margin.

my home state (MN) and current state of residence (WA) both for Biden

Woah, woah, woah, don't declare states where some people still have to vote. I wouldn't even declare victory in DC.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:29 am In a real shocker, Markey will beat what's-his-name by a similar margin.

I see what you did there.

I'm torn between watching election coverage and just hiding in a hole somewhere.

Eel Snave wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:17 am I'm torn between watching election coverage and just hiding in a hole somewhere.

I'll probably play a game and then tune in after 10 tonight and see where we stand. I watched last time and it didn't turn out well to say the least

I was in Disney World of all places when the 2016 election results came in (I had absentee ballot voted early). I left the family and sat by myself in the Hall of Presidents on election day knowing it would be the last time I saw that lineup without Hillary or Trump.

I was leaving Epcot when I started getting the news that Trump was winning. Needless to say it was a surreal moment being in "the happiest place on Earth" but feeling so utterly miserable.

I will most certainly be glued to the TV tonight. I feel like me not being there cost Clinton the election last time.

In 2016 we were in a restaurant called Not Your Average Joe's. Election Day is always within a few days of Wife's birthday. Service slowed to a crawl as the staff watched the TV in the bar with the same horror, dread, and disbelief as the customers. We all knew things were going to be bad, but nobody imagined that four years later we wouldn't be able to go to restaurants anymore. Wife has a $15 birthday credit at Average Joe's and we briefly toyed with going there again, but it's too dangerous and traumatic.

The day after the election in 2016 I had to catch a flight for business. I was looking around the airport thinking: nearly half of you fucking idiots voted for Trump.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:20 pm In 2016 we were in a restaurant called Not Your Average Joe's. Election Day is always within a few days of Wife's birthday. Service slowed to a crawl as the staff watched the TV in the bar with the same horror, dread, and disbelief as the customers. We all knew things were going to be bad, but nobody imagined that four years later we wouldn't be able to go to restaurants anymore. Wife has a $15 birthday credit at Average Joe's and we briefly toyed with going there again, but it's too dangerous and traumatic.

We used to go there all the time (the one in Needham)! One of our Mass go-tos. Loved the wasabi glazed tuna they used to have. Glad to hear they’re still doing ok.

The 2016 election was on my birthday. Sufficed to say, worst birthday present ever.

Back in 2016 after the results were in I got into a heated discussion with a co-worker who voted for Trump.

He repeated the tired trope of "Benghazi" among the usual Fox talking points.

Well, I hope you feel better about the four dead Americans at Benghazi vs the quarter million under your guy. Asshole.

Heh, it took me like two days after the last presidential election before I was able to pass out long enough to get a full night's sleep.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:15 pm
I will most certainly be glued to the TV tonight. I feel like me not being there cost Clinton the election last time.

So this last four years has all been your fucking fault?!?!?!

From the Trump supporters I know, last time they hated Clinton with a fiery passion, but there was an inevitability about her winning and so they went into election day assuming they would win.

This time, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they're convinced Trump will win (and that if Biden will win it will mean communism, if Covid doesn't kill us first because only Trump can save the country from Covid).

Someone's going to wake up to a rude surprise. And it better not be me, this time.

‘and it better not be me, again. ‘

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:43 pm From the Trump supporters I know, last time they hated Clinton with a fiery passion, but there was an inevitability about her winning and so they went into election day assuming they would win.

This time, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they're convinced Trump will win (and that if Biden will win it will mean communism, if Covid doesn't kill us first because only Trump can save the country from Covid).

Someone's going to wake up to a rude surprise. And it better not be me, this time.

The Trump support I've spoken to fall in to one of two camps. Trump would win there was no COVID and if Biden wins then it's corruption and we need to be prepared for the courts to figure it out. Their biggest fear is actually that Pelosi will be president and they hate Pelosi. They see her like I see McConnell. (Ignoring the fact the McConnell has been pulling strings since 2003 while Pelosi has only been so since 2007 and she is in the House while McConnell is in the Senate)

So regardless of who wins, when are you gonna split the country up into affluent decadentville vs well-armed looneyville? I mean it's what Russia wants you to do, you know you're powerless to resist.

On election day 2016, I fell asleep during the news coverage that night. (I don't think I was on night shift at the time, but my sleep schedule was likely still screwy.) I awoke in the middle of the night or early the next morning and was dumbfounded. This wasn't forecast. How could this happen? It was literally inconceivable.

Four years later, honestly, I think things have gone far better than they could have. The U.S. handling of Covid is a horrific exception. But early on, I was having nightmares of new wars. And many times it seemed like disastrous conflicts in North Korea and Iran were very real possibilities. Not that the ongoing conflicts aren't horrific enough.

(Disclosure: I'm Canadian; Mrs. Nym is American. We've lived in Canada for the past 10+ years and currently have no plans to relocate. But having lived in the U.S. for a few years growing up, I feel like I have a little more insight than some on the outside. And obviously, U.S. politics affect Canada enormously.)

Sudy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:29 pm Four years later, honestly, I think things have gone far better than they could have.

That's the only reason I can sleep at night. However, things are far worse than they should be and they continue to trend that direction. This goes from actual law and law enforcement to violence in the streets to emboldening the unstable to the point of acting on their irrationality (see violence in the streets)

This isn't meant as a counterpoint, but I was musing earlier... does anyone really think that stuff would get any better under Biden? I feel like the genie's out of the bag. I mean, the so-called unstable won't be getting encouraged by the most powerful man in the nation anymore, but I'm sure he'll still be calling shots from the golf course. And even if he doesn't, other individuals and groups will seize that vacuum and continue preaching to that audience. Not to mention having an "opponent" in power again will fuel them even further.

Sudy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:47 pm This isn't meant as a counterpoint, but I was musing earlier... does anyone really think that stuff would get any better under Biden? I feel like the genie's out of the bag. I mean, the so-called unstable won't be getting encouraged by the most powerful man in the nation anymore, but I'm sure he'll still be calling shots from the golf course. And even if he doesn't, other individuals and groups will seize that vacuum and continue preaching to that audience. Not to mention having an "opponent" in power again will fuel them even further.

It's like surviving Chernobyl. It can still kill you in a few years.

Sudy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:47 pm This isn't meant as a counterpoint, but I was musing earlier... does anyone really think that stuff would get any better under Biden?

Depends what your perspective is on "better", but if you're like me and think the US needs moar socialism, the left actually has a shot at influencing Biden. It's much easier to fight a liberal than to fight a fascist.

Also, Trump might be the end of the American Empire. Whether that's a good thing or not is also a matter of perspective.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:00 pmDepends what your perspective is on "better", but if you're like me and think the US needs moar socialism, the left actually has a shot at influencing Biden. It's much easier to fight a liberal than to fight a fascist.

The problem is that Biden's coalition will be stretched from center-rightish to the progressive left. There won't be appetite to do that especially as Biden is fighting fires for 4 years. We aren't going to get much more socialism.

Also, Trump might be the end of the American Empire. Whether that's a good thing or not is also a matter of perspective.

Your "neighbor" Johan Galtung got it right years ago. Trump is definitely the end of American empire. I was reading Australian news just yesterday where Trump re-election means they have to figure out something now. A Biden win gives them time to figure out what alignment they need to do but they can't trust us. And they are absolutely correct. Biden will be fighting domestic demons his entire administration.

If you mean "has a shot" in the sense that the left has 0% chance at influencing Trump and 0.01% chance of impacting Biden, then maybe. Biden winning would be a win for decorum and an end to the unabashed endorsement of extremism (from the top, anyway), but it's not ending the wars, getting everyone the healthcare they need, or even pretending to fight oligarchy and corporate rule. But... I'm sure that's been said more eloquently by others (probably yourself) in many other threads.

FWIW just saw a note somewhere that initial back of envelope math is *not looking good* in Florida right now. Turnout was higher amongst Republicans by about 200K. Biden will need a good chunk of independents to break his way. It's a little early obviously but Florida is once again a nail biter.

I've also seen in multiple places that GOP turnout hasn't been enough to offset the early voting advantage for Dems.

In short, it's Florida. Who the fuck knows.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:10 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:00 pmDepends what your perspective is on "better", but if you're like me and think the US needs moar socialism, the left actually has a shot at influencing Biden. It's much easier to fight a liberal than to fight a fascist.

The problem is that Biden's coalition will be stretched from center-rightish to the progressive left. There won't be appetite to do that especially as Biden is fighting fires for 4 years. We aren't going to get much more socialism.

Probably not, but at least there's potential for pressure, organizing of labor unions and the like. People, including moderates, will have the opportunity to get pissed off at how little Biden wants to do even with a blue House and Senate and might start to question neoliberal ideology. FDR wasn't progressive until the commie unions threatened to use their leverage on him after all.

By contrast, under Trump 2.0, any leftist dissent will be ruthlessly crushed. So yeah, I'd say there's a shot at least to improve the country with Biden. Or at least not fall deeper into fascism.

Your "neighbor" Johan Galtung got it right years ago. Trump is definitely the end of American empire. I was reading Australian news just yesterday where Trump re-election means they have to figure out something now. A Biden win gives them time to figure out what alignment they need to do but they can't trust us. And they are absolutely correct. Biden will be fighting domestic demons his entire administration.

It's a matter of alliances and legitimacy. Trump is alienating NATO allies and thus weakening US hegemony, which leaves a power vacuum for Russia and China (and to a lesser extent the EU) to exploit. What's really scary about the fall of American imperialism is that your military makes the Roman warmachine look like kindergarden. Democracies in Europe have come to depend on the projected might of USA to dissuade Russian aggression. And how is your military going to act as America becomes increasingly insular?

So apparently, the WH press secretary is predicting a "Trump landslide".

I interpret that to mean that the ground will swallow Trump whole.

malchior wrote:FWIW just saw a note somewhere that initial back of envelope math is *not looking good* in Florida right now. Turnout was higher amongst Republicans by about 200K. Biden will need a good chunk of independents to break his way. It's a little early obviously but Florida is once again a nail biter.

TL;DR: a +2 GOP in Florida favors Biden, based on estimates of early voting and independents. In 2016, I believe it was +6 GOP.

That all said I'm guessing the chance of a solid Florida call is looking somewhat unlikely tonight.

We may know who won in Florida tonight:

538

"There’s also Florida in the 8 p.m. hour. And while we’re not sure who will win here either, the state is different from Maine and Pennsylvania in that we shouldn’t have to wait long to find out. Given how fast Florida counts votes, it would not be a surprise if we get enough results to know who won there shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern."

Edit:
More 538

"Should be very fast. Florida is accustomed to handling a heavy volume of mail ballots and has laws (like letting counties process absentee ballots weeks in advance and not accepting most ballots that arrive after Election Day) that encourage an early count. In other words, results should be nearly complete within a couple hours of polls closing. That said, counties are allowed to take their time if needed, so some larger counties may still be tabulating mail ballots on Wednesday or later. That means that if a race is close, we might not know who won on election night."

If Biden wins Florida, Trump is pretty much toast (it would reduce his chances to like 1%). If Trump wins Florida, Biden can still win but I would be very nervous.

I am not going to repeat the misery of 4 years ago of watching hours of election coverage. I am going to watch non-news TV and maybe check on the news online between episodes. (I hope.)

To preface this - exit polls are going to be stupid today. Still I think this one is off a bit because I can't believe that the number 3 issue is COVID? I mean it could but...really? 1000 people are dying every day. Also, the Economy and COVID are probably a tad linked.

Independent

A man claiming to be a Trump 'poll watcher' attempted to enter a ballot station in Philadelphia amid growing concerns over voter intimidation in the city.

Video shared on Twitter shows the man remonstrating with two election officials outside the voting station.

The man, who is flanked by a second man wearing sunglasses and a dark suit, says the election officials are not letting him into the building.

He is holding a piece of paper in his hand but it is not clear from the clip what is written on the document.

The two officials tell the man to "call the police" if he is not happy with their decision to refuse him entry to the building. They say the man is not registered to observe in their ward.
...
The video was shared by Will Chamberlain, a lawyer and the editor-in-chief of Human Events - a conservative political website.

Mr Chamberlain, who was among the attendees at the president's 'social media summit' in July 2019, later posted to Twitter what he said was the alleged poll watcher's certificate.

The Independent could not immediately verify the certificate or the man's identity and has contacted Mr Chamberlain for comment.

Philadelphia Police Department and the local Democrat and Republican parties have also been contacted for comment.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:02 pm To preface this - exit polls are going to be stupid today. Still I think this one is off a bit because I can't believe that the number 3 issue is COVID? I mean it could but...really? 1000 people are dying every day. Also, the Economy and COVID are probably a tad linked.

I dunno. I think that might just be a reflection of the (anticipated, or so I'm told) higher GOP turnout on actual election day. And the GOP base reiterating trump's rhetoric about 'the greatest economy EVAR!!1!'. And while I agree that any rational person can see the relationship between covid and the economy, well, this is the trump base we're talking about.

This poll does not give me warm fuzzies; and I was watching CNN live as they released it. You could tell the democratic talking heads were alarmed as well

The Fox exit polls had to be terrifying for the GOP. The sort of electorate that would answer the way those numbers read, that would be real bad juju for the GOP.

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:28 pm The Fox exit polls had to be terrifying for the GOP. The sort of electorate that would answer the way those numbers read, that would be real bad juju for the GOP.

Yeah - either Trump's base went crazy or they sampled a *very Democratic* vein.

If only something could have been done before the election to help the economy, like another round of stimulus and the extension of extra unemployment benefits.