Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Grifman
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Little Raven »

Noah gets it.
/. "She climbed backwards out her
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kraken »

Little Raven wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:29 pm After last night, I'm not at all sure we WANT Trump charged.

It is now clear that Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democrats in a long time. We want him around as long as possible. Ideally, we want him heading the ticket in 2024. Failing that, we definitely want him running as third party spoiler.

He doesn't do us any good in jail.
Trump thrives on persecution, real and imagined. An indictment and trial would only strengthen him.

That said, I hope the DOJ will disregard the political ramifications and apply the law blindly if they have a winnable case.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

I agree with the premise and that'd be the best outcome. Now the likelihood? Close to zero at the moment. We'd need to see the GOP base blame Trump for the weaker than expected mid-term results to start breaking down his support levels in the GOP which are high. That seems unlikely. Unless he loses the base then the idea of any competition between DeSantis and Trump is remote. Though we may see DeSantis chip away at him to see if there is any way he could get some grip on the base.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Grifman wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:07 pm On the one hand I agree but on the other hand even the small chance of Trump bring re-elected terrify me.
This is me.
malchior wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:16 pm Trump getting away with it has dire consequences for...
This is also me.


Faith in institution is already at terrible low. Trump "getting away with it", even in spite of the lousy kids, is beacon for others to follow and moral loss that is just so severe.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

This is the question that Republicans have faced many times:



I wonder if this time will be any different? The problem is, it would cost them the presidency. Even if Trump didn’t run third party, he’d attack from the sidelines and many MAGA’s would stay home during the election. And it would tear up the party down ticket as candidates would have to decide where their loyalty lie - with the party or Trump. The same goes for donors.

Of course, the party leadership should have done this years ago. But now Rrumo is a virtual cult leader, they let him get too powerful, and now it’s gojng to cost the party more that it would have in the past to be rid of him.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by YellowKing »

If Trump is causing them to lose elections, what difference does it make whether their base agrees? They're still freaking losing. And it's not like their base is going to vote for a lib over whoever has the R beside their name.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:43 am If Trump is causing them to lose elections, what difference does it make whether their base agrees? They're still freaking losing. And it's not like their base is going to vote for a lib over whoever has the R beside their name.
I think the point being raised - I've made similar in the past day or two - is that the establishment types almost surely wish Trump just went away. Trump however is going to Trump and serve Trump. Not the party. Not the country. So if (read when) he announces next week, it'll be a move in several dimensions. He is likely first most looking for legal armor against the DOJ. Another is essentially disrupting all activity to start up Presidential races that could even challenge him. It'd be very challenging to get the funding and personnel to sign on for a run against Trump with a cult behind him.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by stimpy »

I think you all are giving Trump way too much credit.
If you recall, he lost in 2020.
His stock has done nothing but go down since then, as evidenced by the results of this midterm.

His schtick is played out to those of us who voted for him the first time and are not part of the fringe that still backs him.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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YellowKing wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:43 am If Trump is causing them to lose elections, what difference does it make whether their base agrees? They're still freaking losing. And it's not like their base is going to vote for a lib over whoever has the R beside their name.
If the cult leader starts attacking a Republican nominee, the cult is not going to show up and vote. They may not vote for a lib, but they will see moving on from Trump as betrayal by the “elites” and just not vote.

I think the most interesting and most immediate thing will be Trump’s planned announcement next week. He set that up presuming he could bask in the success of a red wave that never happened. A lot of his past supporters are saying he should delay. But to do so will be seen as a sign of weakness, which means more blood in the water. And he still needs protection from the DOJ, which I think is a huge factor in the announcement. But to announce and flop would be an embarrassment also. He’s really in a fix. All I can say is after Tuesday, things got a lot more interesting in Trump World.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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YellowKing wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:43 am If Trump is causing them to lose elections, what difference does it make whether their base agrees? They're still freaking losing. And it's not like their base is going to vote for a lib over whoever has the R beside their name.
My sense is that the Trump / MAGA branding is by itself a net negative for the GOP overall. However, Trump himself has the ability to drive turnout among his faithful, who are disproportionately low turnout voters otherwise (and who are difficult to reach via traditional polling). When Trump is on the ballot (2016 and 2020) the latter effect has made up for the former effect, and Republicans for the most part outperformed their polls. But for other elections, the GOP can't escape the Trump branding even when he's not on the ballot, but Trump doesn't drive turnout among his faithful to offset. Hence the 2018 and 2022 elections (and the 2020 runoffs) were bad for Republicans.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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stimpy wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:06 am I think you all are giving Trump way too much credit.
If you recall, he lost in 2020.
His stock has done nothing but go down since then, as evidenced by the results of this midterm.

His schtick is played out to those of us who voted for him the first time and are not part of the fringe that still backs him.
Many would beg to disagree: More MAGA Than Ever: It’s hard to overstate how radicalized and anarchic the base of the Republican Party remains.
The conventional wisdom is that Republicans will finally break with Trump, perhaps rallying around an alternative like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who won a decisive reelection victory. And they might. DeSantis is a skilled culture warrior, aware of what appeals to MAGA world.

But bear in mind that since the summer of 2015, Republicans have had countless opportunities to move on from Trump, most conspicuously after the violent attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, part of Trump’s unprecedented effort to overthrow a presidential election. Republicans have always passed. In fact, the party is more MAGA friendly after his defeat in 2020 than it was during his presidency. A bad midterm election is unlikely to break Trump’s grip on the party.

Why? Because it’s hard to overstate how radicalized and anarchic the base of the Republican Party remains. Donald Trump may have endorsed candidates such as Herschel Walker, Doug Mastriano, Kari Lake, and Mehmet Oz, but it was primary voters who chose them. The lesson primary voters usually learn after several disappointing elections, which is to make changes so their party wins more races, isn’t likely to gain much purchase within MAGA world. And the fact that Trump’s endorsements don’t translate into election victories isn’t news.

Those who inhabit MAGA world are deeply alienated from institutions, including political ones, and therefore a good deal less loyal to the Republican Party than they are to Donald Trump. They view themselves as “anti-establishment” and “anti-elitist”; they have contempt for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. I’m not sure right-wing pundits declaring that the Republican Party needs to move on from Trump will sway those voters, any more than it did in 2015 and 2016, when virtually the entire GOP establishment opposed Trump.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Trump is moving forward:

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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Grifman wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:19 pm
Not goin to happen in this timeline. Too easy. Either Trump chokes on some KFC or DeSantis fucks up.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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You know things may be changing when people start speaking publicly:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Grifman wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:02 pm Trump is moving forward:

*have*
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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It’s on:

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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kraken »

YESSS! Now please go campaign with Herschel Walker.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:34 pm YESSS! Now please go campaign with Herschel Walker.
He should gather the remaining (visible) Trump loyalists and do a road show!
Oz, Walker, Lindell and Giuliani. That would be epic. Maybe an occasional cameo by Sidney Powell or Mike Pompeo Flynn.

It would be genuinely entertaining.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:20 am
Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:34 pm YESSS! Now please go campaign with Herschel Walker.
He should gather the remaining (visible) Trump loyalists and do a road show!
Oz, Walker, Lindell and Giuliani. That would be epic. Maybe an occasional cameo by Sidney Powell or Mike Pompeo.

It would be genuinely entertaining.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:20 am
Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:34 pm YESSS! Now please go campaign with Herschel Walker.
He should gather the remaining (visible) Trump loyalists and do a road show!
Oz, Walker, Lindell and Giuliani. That would be epic. Maybe an occasional cameo by Sidney Powell or Mike Pompeo.

It would be genuinely entertaining.
Come on, Flynn has been a good boy.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Don't for Stone, Chris Collins, Arpaio, D'Souza, Manafort, Bannon, and the DeVos family. Heck Roger Stone seems to seems to be the perennial bad penny.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Alefroth wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 1:26 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:20 am
Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:34 pm YESSS! Now please go campaign with Herschel Walker.
He should gather the remaining (visible) Trump loyalists and do a road show!
Oz, Walker, Lindell and Giuliani. That would be epic. Maybe an occasional cameo by Sidney Powell or Mike Pompeo.

It would be genuinely entertaining.
Come on, Flynn has been a good boy.
Yep, I meant Flynn, not Pompeio, something felt off when I wrote that. Edited!
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Grifman wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:02 pm Trump is moving forward:

Can't we get him incarcerated before then so it's not even possible?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Yeah, that's what everyone is hoping.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Jeff V wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:20 pm Can't we get him incarcerated before then so it's not even possible?
That wouldn't stop him. If he can campaign from a landscaper, he can campaign from C-Block.

A charge disqualifying him for public office would be required to make it impossible for him to run.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

Things are getting interesting. Nothing like losing to focus a party's leaders on different choices:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/14/politics ... index.html

The real question is, what about "the base"? Are they ready to move on? Are they willing to listen to the party "elite"? Or are they far too gone?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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From that article:
“That’s how we win elections. A reasonable person who would unite the party.”
A reasonable person would help to win elections. They would not help to unite the party (except maybe to be against that person?)
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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(Re)uniting the party is going to take years. Barring some Big Cause, they either need (strategically) to double down on what they've been doing and hope to pull 2024 out of the hat, or they need to stop thinking about the next election and start thinking about the next decade.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Blackhawk wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:30 am (Re)uniting the party is going to take years. Barring some Big Cause, they either need (strategically) to double down on what they've been doing and hope to pull 2024 out of the hat, or they need to stop thinking about the next election and start thinking about the next decade.
The moment to reject Trump was right after the tapes came out. It probably would have cost them the election, but it would have been before Trump truly developed his cult following. They could have moved on fairly easily and we would have a semi-reasonable Republican Party.

But it may be too late. The cult has control, the fever has not broken. Trump is holding the party hostage and he would burn down the party if he’s not the nominee. Assuming he declares tonight, the next few months are going to be interesting to say the least.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Grifman wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:10 am But it may be too late. The cult has control, the fever has not broken. Trump is holding the party hostage and he would burn down the party if he’s not the nominee. Assuming he declares tonight, the next few months are going to be interesting to say the least.
He showed he would burn down the country given any opportunity if he's not president, burning down a party? Pshaw.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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I would pay to see a “Celebrity Apprentice” like show where Trump chooses his running mate and fires one candidate each week.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by hepcat »

I'd love to see a show where someone forces Trump to tell the truth for 2 minutes straight. I envision something like the head explosion from Scanners.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

Murdoch and FOX News are done:



It will be interesting to see Hannity and company try to pivot.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Holeeee shit that’s big. I guess we’ll see soon enough who the true believers were at Fox.

Anybody want to place odds on Cucker Tarlson?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Grifman wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:45 pm It will be interesting to see Hannity and company try to pivot.
They'll do what they're paid to do.

The narrative will be something like "Trump showed us the way, but it's time for a fresh view forward," with the barely- or unspoken implication that Trump's complex legal troubles (but only the business ones) are too politically risky. They'll never have to admit that Trump is a deeply flawed, deeply corrupt monster.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Surely at least ‘Trump whisperer’ Hannity will make it more interesting?!
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Defiant »

Fixed that tweet:
Rupert Murdoch has told Trump his media empire will not support another Trump run for the presidency until he starts winning the nomination at which point they will totally be on board
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Are you saying that FOX wasn't impartial news leading to, during and after the Trump years, and actively supported him? Noooo. That can't be.
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