Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Unagi]

Ha. Perfection.
I also appreciate the change to costume.

[Isgrimnur]

Ookla?

[Smoove_B]

So good. Thank you.

[Blackhawk]

I'm saving it. I will throw a tarp over it, but we may have need of the Smoove Signal in the days to come.

[Max Peck]

For the last year or so, it's been impossible (for me, ymmv) to find a COVID test kit anywhere. Meanwhile, the government is in anguish over the fact that they're sitting on a stockpile of tens of millions test kits and don't know what to do with them. Because making them available to the public wasn't a priority, apparently. JFC...

Federal government struggling to get rid of millions of extra COVID-19 rapid tests

The federal government is sitting on a stockpile of 39 million extra rapid tests for COVID-19 and is struggling to get rid of them without chucking them in the trash, an internal Health Canada memo shows.

As the Omicron variant of the virus began to tear across Canada at the end of 2021, the government rapidly bought up rapid antigen tests, distributing most of them to the provinces so people could swab themselves for the virus at home.

Now that far fewer people are subjecting themselves to the brain-tickling sensation of a COVID-19 test outside of hospitals and other health-care settings, the government appears to have more than it knows what to do with.

"Acknowledging the volumes of tests in play and the challenge of divesting such quantity over a time-bound period, it is expected that disposal of expired tests would be required," staff wrote to Health Canada's deputy minister in a memo signed March 25.

The memo was obtained through federal access-to-information laws.

Rapid tests were considered both important and valuable in early 2022, as regular test capacity was reserved only for certain cases in most provinces. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Canada has spent roughly $5 billion on rapid tests.

Even after the initial rise in Omicron infections settled down, the government continued to accumulate tests in case the country was hit with another large wave of infections.

That wave never came, and as public health restrictions were gradually lifted, the government found itself with a stockpile of some 93 million tests as of March 21.

By July 25, the store of tests was still sitting at over 90 million, Health Canada said in a statement.

Provinces and territories now have enough supply of their own to give eight tests to each Canadian. The federal health department plans to keep up to 55 million in reserve to prepare for the next emergency, which leaves 39 million extra as of the end of March.

[LordMortis]

I got mine in April before insurance won't get them "for free" any more. No idea how long they are good for. I really should check.

[Kraken]

Our town hall has (or had) a table piled high with them, and Wife brought home a box or two every time her business took her in there. I'll bet we have 25-30 boxes of covid tests. Of course they're all expired, but it's my understanding that if the control line appears, the test is still valid.

I'm going to throw away all my cloth masks, though. They never conveyed much benefit and it's hard to imagine ever wearing one again. Maybe I'll keep a couple of the nicer ones around for dust masks. I do still have a box of N95s and I'm sure I'll be wearing those again.

[Smoove_B]

New York reported 6,515 new coronavirus cases this week, up 28% from last week and up 75% from last month

Texas reported 9,482 new cases of COVID-19 this week, up 72% from last week or 130% from 4 weeks ago

Weekly U.S. COVID update: Cases, hospitalisations continue to rise

- New cases: 49,769
- Average: 53,419 (+3,052)
- States reporting: 32/50
- In hospital: 8,187 (+237)
- In ICU: 1,157 (+32)
- New deaths: 583
- Average: 659 (-56)

Now imagine if we were proactively testing and monitoring.

[Punisher]

Now imagine if we were proactively testing and monitoring.

But proactive testing is not helpful at all. It just brings attention to it.
If we want it to go away we just need to treat it like an annoying child and ignore it. Eventually it will get bored and go away.
I'm pretty sure thats how all diseases work.

[Blackhawk]

COVID should be seen and not heard.

And if it doesn't go away, it should be sent to its room.

[Kraken]

When the Covid clampdown happened I figured that science and society would team up and defeat it. It was only a question of how long it would take. I never imagined that we'd form a pro-virus faction, much less that the virus would win, but here we are.

Note to public health types: the next time you engineer a new virus, make sure it kills young people. We stopped caring about Boomer Remover after the first million deaths.

[Punisher]

When the Covid clampdown happened I figured that science and society would team up and defeat it. It was only a question of how long it would take. I never imagined that we'd form a pro-virus faction, much less that the virus would win, but here we are.

Note to public health types: the next time you engineer a new virus, make sure it kills young people. We stopped caring about Boomer Remover after the first million deaths.

you know. I've always wondered if we, as a whole, would have responded better if Covid DID hit the young hard and not mostly hit the elderly or sick. (Although some elderly politicians seemed pro-civd at times as well.) Like if you didn't have to be old or have an underlying condition and it was purely potluck if it affected you hard or killed you regardless of anything impressionot the impression that a LOT of people were like, I'm young adon'talthy so I don't care about tworldt of the world.

[Zarathud]

When the Covid clampdown happened I figured that science and society would team up and defeat it. It was only a question of how long it would take. I never imagined that we'd form a pro-virus faction, much less that the virus would win, but here we are.

Note to public health types: the next time you engineer a new virus, make sure it kills young people. We stopped caring about Boomer Remover after the first million deaths.

SMAC was right — but the Human Hive and Lord’s Believers allied with the Morganites in the US to overcome University of Planet and Gaia before launch. Given time and climate change, we may grow the fungal blooms on Earth.

[hitbyambulance]

SMAC was right — but the Human Hive and Lord’s Believers allied with the Morganites in the US to overcome University of Planet and Gaia before launch. Given time and climate change, we may grow the fungal blooms on Earth.

so when do we get the nerve stapling?

[LordMortis]

SMAC was right — but the Human Hive and Lord’s Believers allied with the Morganites in the US to overcome University of Planet and Gaia before launch. Given time and climate change, we may grow the fungal blooms on Earth.

I wonder what it takes to get those old CDs working on my computer with Windows 10... GOG. I may just have to break down and pay $6 again for the memories.

[Smoove_B]

Well, I guess this will be another data point:

Millions of people under the age of 65 in England will be denied flu and Covid jabs this winter despite one of the government’s top public health officials warning that coronavirus has not “gone away”.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which advises the UK government, said on Tuesday its plan for Covid was to offer jabs only to those at “high risk of serious disease” who are “most likely to benefit” from vaccination.

Covid boosters will be offered to residents in care homes for older adults, those aged six months to 64 in clinical risk groups, frontline health and social care workers, people aged 12 to 64 who are carers or household contacts of people with immunosuppression, and all adults aged 65 and over.

[Max Peck]

Vaxit?

[Smoove_B]

Still catching up... study published last week using 2022 vaccination data in Australia:

22,744 persons with COVID-19 who had agreed to participate in research at the time of diagnosis were texted a survey link 90 days later; non-responders were telephoned. Post stratification weights were applied to responses from 11,697 (51.4%) participants, 94.0% of whom had received >= 3 vaccine doses.

...

n a highly vaccinated population (94% with >=3 vaccine doses), almost 20% of persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant reported symptoms consistent with Long COVID 90 days post diagnosis. Long COVID was associated with sustained negative impacts on work/study and a substantial utilisation of GP services 2-3 months after the acute illness; however, ED presentations and hospitalisations for Long COVID were rare.

So two things. First, helping to confirm vaccinations work in protection from death and severe complications. Second, ~20% of highly vaccinated people experiencing symptoms for up to 90 days after illness is not something we can just collectively "get over". Again, this is data from a year ago; it will be interesting to see if this trend (20%) holds up in other countries and throughout 2023.

Add in this other article from the AP and it doesn't look great:

“We are seeing effects on the heart and the vascular system that really outnumber, unfortunately, effects on other organ systems,” said Dr. Susan Cheng, a cardiologist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles.

It’s not only an issue for long COVID patients like Camilleri. For up to a year after a case of COVID-19, people may be at increased risk of developing a new heart-related problem, anything from blood clots and irregular heartbeats to a heart attack –- even if they initially seem to recover just fine.

Among the unknowns: Who’s most likely to experience these aftereffects? Are they reversible — or a warning sign of more heart disease later in life?

“We’re about to exit this pandemic as even a sicker nation” because of virus-related heart trouble, said Washington University’s Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, who helped sound the alarm about lingering health problems. The consequences, he added, “will likely reverberate for generations.”

Of note:

How big is the post-COVID heart risk? To find out, Al-Aly analyzed medical records from a massive Veterans Administration database. People who’d survived COVID-19 early in the pandemic were more likely to experience abnormal heartbeats, blood clots, chest pain and palpitations, even heart attacks and strokes up to a year later compared to the uninfected. That includes even middle-aged people without prior signs of heart disease

Based on those findings, Al-Aly estimated 4 of every 100 people need care for some kind of heart-related symptom in the year after recovering from COVID-19.

Per person, that’s a small risk. But he said the pandemic’s sheer enormity means it added up to millions left with at least some cardiovascular symptom. While a reinfection might still cause trouble, Al-Aly’s now studying whether that overall risk dropped thanks to vaccination and milder coronavirus strains.

Important:

But Al-Aly says there’s a simple take-home message: You can’t change your history of COVID-19 infections but if you’ve ignored other heart risks –- like high cholesterol or blood pressure, poorly controlled diabetes or smoking -– now’s the time to change that.

[Smoove_B]

Of course it's red tape.

I learned today via FDA why and when the new Covid boosters will be ready —The reason for the delay is that the Covid Public Health Emergency ended May 11, 2023, so it requires a Product Licensing Application (PLA) instead of an EUA —Now projected to be available ~9/15

[raydude]

SMAC was right — but the Human Hive and Lord’s Believers allied with the Morganites in the US to overcome University of Planet and Gaia before launch. Given time and climate change, we may grow the fungal blooms on Earth.

so when do we get the nerve stapling?

Nerve stapling = Fox News. I mean, have you seen how intransigent the beliefs of those viewers are?

[malchior]

Beyond the COVID timing I'm seeing projections that the pharmaceutical companies Are jacking the prices to over a $100 per vaccine dose. The vaccine development was funded by the US government, to wit us. We funded the build out of the plants that will produce this medicine in the future. They're looting the public. This is another instance where I think if people truly understood how it worked there would be a major freak out.

[Smoove_B]

This is another instance where I think if people truly understood how it worked there would be a major freak out.

If anyone cared about COVID-19 anymore, they might. But when only ~18% of the eligible population is current with vaccinations, there's clearly a large number of people that just aren't interested. So now the pharmaceutical companies can now focus on making vaccines that they can sell overseas - while still charging ~5x the original cost to Americans.

[Blackhawk]

A lot of people know. But after decades of having zero choice or voice, a lot of them have just surrendered. You pay, or you die.

[Smoove_B]

It's all still a mystery:

New COVID-19 hospitalizations have accelerated for a fourth straight week, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data now shows.

A total of 10,320 patients in the U.S. were newly hospitalized with COVID-19 for the week ending August 5, according to the figures published Monday, an increase of 14.3% from the week before.

Levels remain far below the summer peak that strained hospitals at this time last year, when 42,813 admissions were reported for the week of August 6, 2022.

Where:

Hospitals across the Southeast are continuing to report the nation's highest rate of COVID-19 admissions. In the region spanning Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee, 4.58 new patients were reported per 100,000 residents.

The Southeast has also been reporting the highest rate of COVID-19 cases among nursing home residents. Weekly infections are now close to the worst rates seen during 2021's summer wave in the region, but below more recent peaks.

Who:

Nationwide, data collected from emergency rooms suggests COVID-19 levels have been highest in recent weeks among seniors ages 75 and older, similar to what was seen during last winter's peak.

Emergency room visits for children ages 0 to 11 years old have also climbed steeply. Measured as a percentage of all visits in the age group, nationwide COVID-19 rates in these kids are now tied with seniors for the first time in a year. Other CDC data suggests visits from the youngest kids, ages 0 to 1 year old, are seeing the steepest increase.

[Smoove_B]

Imagine if we were proactively monitoring this

Texas reports 14,881 new coronavirus cases this week, an increase of 23% from last week or 170% from last month

[ImLawBoy]

My sister was one of those!

[Zaxxon]

My sister was one of those!

Bummer!

Colorado actually bucked its several-week trend and dropped case count this week. Waste waster also trending in a better direction.

[Kurth]

My sister was one of those!

My son, too, but in OR, not TX.

He went to a camp for a week and came back last Saturday with a mild sore throat. Found out 6/8 kids in his cabin had COVID, so we tested him, and he was positive. Felt fine except for the mild sore throat that lasted 36 hours or so. Kept him home from the first couple days of soccer tryouts, and he rejoined the team Wednesday morning after two negative tests.

Of all our experiences with COVID, this was one of the most low key.

[ImLawBoy]

I was surprised it was my sister's first bout with it. I assumed everyone in Texas has had it multiple times. She just came back from a European river cruise, though, so I'm guessing she actually picked it up outside of Texas.

She's doing Paxlovid and I understand she's feeling better, but not 100% yet.

[coopasonic]

Imagine if we were proactively monitoring this

Texas reports 14,881 new coronavirus cases this week, an increase of 23% from last week or 170% from last month

At least some school districts had the first week of school last week, though that might be too soon for this reporting. Maybe back to school shopping or various stay out of the heat summer activities I guess? It's all Barbie's fault!

[Smoove_B]

Just seeing this new report from the CDC, published last week:

Prevalence of long COVID among noninstitutionalized U.S. adults aged ≥18 years decreased from 7.5% (95% CI = 7.1–7.9) during June 1–13, 2022 to 6.0% (95% CI = 5.7–6.3) during June 7–19, 2023 and from 18.9% (95% CI = 17.9–19.8) to 11.0% (95% CI = 10.4–11.6) among adults reporting previous COVID-19.

After an initial decline, prevalence remained unchanged beginning January 4–16, 2023.

Approximately one quarter of adults with long COVID report significant activity limitations.

...

The findings from this analysis of a national sample of U.S. adults indicated that long COVID prevalence decreased from June 1–13, 2022 to June 7–19, 2023. The joinpoint identified during January 4–16, 2023 suggests that, after an initial decline, long COVID prevalence remained unchanged.

The decline during the study period might be reflective of decreasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection,¶¶¶ changes in the severity of acute infection,**** interventions offered during acute infection (e.g., antivirals) (5), vaccination coverage (5), or other factors. Long COVID prevalence has not changed since January 2023, and approximately 1 in 10 adults with previous COVID-19 were experiencing long COVID at the end of the study period, highlighting the ongoing importance of COVID-19 prevention actions, including vaccination. ††††

tl;dr:

Implications for Public Health Practice

After an initial decline during the study period, the prevalence of long COVID has not decreased. The percentage of persons with long COVID who are experiencing significant activity limitations did not change over time. These findings highlight the importance of COVID prevention, including staying up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccination, and could inform health care service needs planning, disability policy, and other support services for persons experiencing severe activity limitation from long COVID.

Don't mind me - I'm just hanging out for a bit to enjoy the echo from the void.

[Smoove_B]

August 17th update (Biobot): US community spread is back up to "high" with an estimated 610,000 daily new infections.

Similar levels in all 4 US regions.

610,000 new infections/day
1 in every 550 new people were infected today
1 in every 55 people currently infected

This rise is still due to EG.5.1, FL.5.1, and XBB.1.16.6 along with some immune waning.

It is not due to the new, heavily mutated variant BA.2.86. There was the US' first sequence reported today (Michigan). We are watching this one *very* closely.

[LordMortis]

And now is when I should be getting vaccinated. blech This suggests it's time to hole up as summer contagion starts to find its way north from all the prior to school vacationing, and college dorm move in and partying start its new season, and the ultimate start of primary and secondary school. Knowing it's over a month a way and that it takes up to two weeks to form an immunity puts me back in to isolation mode. I guess that's going to be a twice a year thing forever now. August/September and March/April. I wonder if I will start upping my mask wearing again. Right now, it's pretty much medical, where I am still often the only mask wearer, though my surgeon did ask if I wanted him to wear a mask. That was nice. I still avoid gathering and lingering in public which avoids mask wearing, except for medical, which I can't avoid. And an outdoor Tiger game, once, where I left my seat after the second inning and watched the game from a mostly empty terrace.

August 1:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vacc ... mber-2023/

The first new COVID-19 vaccines updated for this fall season are now expected to be available by the end of September,

"What we expect is that we will have approval by the end of August. And we are ready with products already now," Pfizer's CEO Albert Bourla told investors on August 1.

August 16:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/16/new-cov ... rance.html

The newest boosters will hopefully be available in the fall between late September and early October, says Patel.

GTG in July and we're basically sitting on it until October.

[Blackhawk]

There are times when not having a car isn't so bad.

[Smoove_B]

Posting mainly as a data point. I can't believe we're going to do this again:

We’re not even two full weeks into the new school year, and at least one Kentucky district sent kids home for the week.

“We’re seeing an increase in COVID-19 throughout the seven counties,” said Scott Lockard, the Public Health Director for the Kentucky River District. “In Lee County, the attendance is at that level where they felt they needed to make the call to dismiss classes the rest of the week,” he continued.

Lee County gave its students a couple of NTI days (Tuesday and Wednesday) and will close altogether on Thursday and Friday of this week in hopes of curbing some of the spread.

Totally normal.

[Isgrimnur]

NTI days

Non-Traditional Instruction

[LordMortis]

Posting mainly as a data point. I can't believe we're going to do this again:

We’re not even two full weeks into the new school year, and at least one Kentucky district sent kids home for the week.

“We’re seeing an increase in COVID-19 throughout the seven counties,” said Scott Lockard, the Public Health Director for the Kentucky River District. “In Lee County, the attendance is at that level where they felt they needed to make the call to dismiss classes the rest of the week,” he continued.

Lee County gave its students a couple of NTI days (Tuesday and Wednesday) and will close altogether on Thursday and Friday of this week in hopes of curbing some of the spread.

Totally normal.

Yep. I have less than a week until I go into recluse mode (as if to say I'm not there now with all the surgeries/medical issues necessitating them I've had this year). See you on the other side of this year's vaccine. Late September (or early October). Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.

[Zaxxon]

It’s been two weeks to the day since school started, and both my kids are home with [COVID-negative] colds.

[LordMortis]

Thought I'd check in on how infections are doing in Michigan. I haven't all summer.

New reported cases per day: 199. New hospitalizations per day: 217.

Some tracking, we got going on.

[Smoove_B]

If only there was something else we could be doing other than using hospitalizations as a way to guess as to what's happening.

The CDC is now forecasting an acceleration in new COVID-19 hospitalizations over the coming month, the agency said this week, replacing a previous projection that admissions would "remain stable or have an uncertain trend."

News story:

Trends in cases have been difficult to monitor meaningfully after the end of the public health emergency. Officials have leaned on figures still being reported from hospitals, like new admissions and emergency room visits, to track upticks in the virus.

Before BA.2.86's emergence, new admissions of patients with COVID-19 had already been climbing. Experts think this uptick in hospitalizations was mostly from infections caused by other less-mutated variants, similar to waves seen during previous summers.

Weekly new hospitalizations jumped 21.6% this past week, the CDC said, marking a fifth straight week of increasing admissions.

Note:

"It is also important to note that the current increase in hospitalizations in the United States is not likely driven by the BA.2.86 variant. This assessment may change as additional data become available," the agency said of BA.2.86.