Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[Blackhawk]

"Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, sharpening his knife."

Mortoned (because if any nation self-identifies as a dude, it's Iran).

I was taking advantage of the neutral pronoun to be vaguely plural.

[malchior]

Hamas launched a surprise. massive attack on Israel raining thousands of rockets and paragliding in "terrorists" across the walls. The Israelis have declared war and hundreds are dead in cities in the region. It appears the Israelis were caught completely by surprise and Hamas militants were rampaging for hours before the Israeli military response began. This will have massive consequences domestically in Israel and the region. This was a game changing day.

NY Times

Israel and Hamas said they were at war Saturday after Palestinian militants launched an early morning assault on southern Israel that had few precedents in its complexity and scale, invading several Israeli towns and firing thousands of rockets toward cities as far away as Jerusalem.

The militants crossed into Israel by land, sea and air, according to the Israeli military. By early afternoon, at least 40 Israelis had been reported dead by the country’s main ambulance service. Israel retaliated with massive strikes on Gazan cities.

[Carpet_pissr]

Well I didn’t sure didn’t have that on this week’s geopolitics bingo card, wow.

Objectively, I assume Israel will react with overwhelming force and brutality, far beyond today’s initial reaction.

Selfishly, for the US, this is going to sow even further division on Capitol Hill, at the worst possible time for us, politically.

[malchior]

Another thing I saw was that Hamas seemed to have upped their drone and missile game. Additionally, they seem to have improved their communication security and were able to stage and coordinate a broad attack without Israeli intelligence detecting it. And it's clear that someone is arming Hamas at scale.

Edit: There is tons of footage out on social media. It's insane. These guys built what only I can describe as Mad Max paragliders with mounted machine guns that they flew and just sprayed fire and used to drop bombs on tanks. There is footage of several destroyed Israeli tanks.

[malchior]

Selfishly, for the US, this is going to sow even further division on Capitol Hill, at the worst possible time for us, politically.

DeSantis already released a video implicitly tying the Iran hostage deal to this attack. Which is fucking dumb as shit considering that was a few weeks ago and this attack clearly has been in the works for quite awhile.

[Carpet_pissr]

Another thing I saw was that Hamas seemed to have upped their drone and missile game. Additionally, they seem to have improved their communication security and were able to stage and coordinate a broad attack without Israeli intelligence detecting it. And it's clear that someone is arming Hamas at scale.

Edit: There is tons of footage out on social media. It's insane. These guys built what only I can describe as Mad Max paragliders with mounted machine guns that they flew and just sprayed fire and used to drop bombs on tanks. There is footage of several destroyed Israeli tanks.

Wow. Welp, I guess we found out the Iron Dome isn’t effective against post apocalyptic marauders raining death from above via hang glider.

[malchior]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

[Carpet_pissr]

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur war as well, speaking to the comment about DeSantis' comment above.

Side note: should be interesting to see Saudi Arabia's reaction to this. OTOH they may have made the strike possible, and might stay silent to appear to be 'above the fray'.

[malchior]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

[malchior]

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur war as well, speaking to the comment about DeSantis' comment above.

Side note: should be interesting to see Saudi Arabia's reaction to this. OTOH they may have made the strike possible, and might stay silent to appear to be 'above the fray'.

Biden has been negotiating a normalization between Saudi and Israel for months. That's probably toast now.

[Carpet_pissr]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

[El Guapo]

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur war as well, speaking to the comment about DeSantis' comment above.

Side note: should be interesting to see Saudi Arabia's reaction to this. OTOH they may have made the strike possible, and might stay silent to appear to be 'above the fray'.

Biden has been negotiating a normalization between Saudi and Israel for months. That's probably toast now.

I don't think Saudi Arabia has been supporting Hamas- that's more Iran's thing. On the other hand the administration's position on an Israel - Saudi Arabia treaty is that it should incorporate the Palestinians, which seems vastly more complicated to do now.

[El Guapo]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

It reflects how Hamas is very much of the "kill the Jews" mindset, so they don't distinguish between military and civilian targets.

[Kurth]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

Yep. Fuck those stupid fucks.

[Kurth]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

I don’t think this is exactly what you’re trying to say, but Hamas is not a parallel to Ukraine. Not in any way. They are terrorists.

[malchior]

Their actions make sense from a strategic point of view. It isn't just a 'everyone is the enemy' play. They are trying to demonstrate that Israel's strategy to manage Gaza as a low level conflict is unsustainable. They might even want a ground invasion to amp up that effect.

I don’t think this is exactly what you’re trying to say, but Hamas is not a parallel to Ukraine. Not in any way. They are terrorists.

Like it or not that isn't how Gazans view them. One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter. That said they're definitely chosen to use terrorist tactics so they are as they do. However, I think the point is that they've certainly learned from Ukrainian asymmetric tactics and they do have the support of a patron state. That's about where the comparison ends though.

[malchior]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

Yep. Fuck those stupid fucks.

Ugh. I get it but this is the reaction that leads to the Israelis leveling a building with 100 innocent people in it to get a weapon cache. And the West remains quiet when they overreact. That's what continues this cycle.

It's hard not to see that Gazans and Palestinians feel hopeless and the result is that they'll kill anyone they see because they see them all as an enemy. So I get being upset but this is one time where both sides are wrong. Not equally but we're not children. If we are going to say that Gazans/Hamas killing civilians makes them terrorists then we have to be prepared to criticize Israelis when they do the same.

[Carpet_pissr]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

I don’t think this is exactly what you’re trying to say, but Hamas is not a parallel to Ukraine. Not in any way. They are terrorists.

Uhhh, yeah, no, not at all. Restated: Hamas seeing tiny, underpowered Ukraine successfully holding their own and trading blows with much more powerful Russia might have made Hamas think that the same was possible in their situation: tiny, underpowered Hamas taking on the Israeli military juggernaut.

[malchior]

Right and they have already released Ukraine-style drone cam attacks on Israeli forces. It's clear they are inspired by Ukraine. The way they see themselves and the way we might describe them are very different things.

[Blackhawk]

Wow, that was... not the news I was expecting this morning. But paragliders - cheap, commercially available, barely visible on radar. It was a smart tactic.

Israel, I think, will be trying for five days this time.

[El Guapo]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

What reports are you seeing? I haven't seen much about return fire yet, except one report that a Gaza high rise was destroyed.

[Kraken]

There are no good guys in this fight. Which do you prefer, the apartheid state or the terrorists?

[Kurth]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

Yep. Fuck those stupid fucks.

Ugh. I get it but this is the reaction that leads to the Israelis leveling a building with 100 innocent people in it to get a weapon cache. And the West remains quiet when they overreact. That's what continues this cycle.

It's hard not to see that Gazans and Palestinians feel hopeless and the result is that they'll kill anyone they see because they see them all as an enemy. So I get being upset but this is one time where both sides are wrong. Not equally but we're not children. If we are going to say that Gazans/Hamas killing civilians makes them terrorists then we have to be prepared to criticize Israelis when they do the same.

I’m not sure how you get to “this is one time where both sides are wrong” when Hamas has orchestrated a massive surprise attack into Israel, but let’s leave that aside for now.

One of the things that makes me so upset about this Hamas attack against Israel is that it will obviously cause the country to rally around Netanyahu. It makes so little sense for the Palestinians to attack Israel now. Israeli society is fractured internally and trying to figure out its identity. There’s a not unrealistic scenario where the result of that internal Israeli struggle could have been the demise of Netanyahu and the erosion of power of the Israeli hard right. Now? Fuck it. The Israelis are going to war and are going to absolutely crush Gaza until they’ve reclaimed every single Israeli hostage taken across the border. And there will be massive support for Netanyahu in this time of crisis. Did you see his televised address this morning? I kept thinking that it must be hard for him to restrain his glee. Stupid fucking Palestinians.

And, of course, the Israeli response will be disproportionate, because, well, this is Israel we’re talking about and that’s how they roll. It’s in their DNA at this point - they are a tiny nation surrounded by enemies who hate their guts and want them dead. They respond to a slap with a sledgehammer because they’ve convinced themselves that’s how they survive.

And many, many more Palestinian civilians will die. Militants and innocents, both. Women, children, elderly. It all just sucks.

[malchior]

Some reports are coming in that Israel is LEVELING GAZA and indiscriminately retaliating in great disproportion. Which you can almost understand after you've seen the images of Hamas fighters executing captured soldiers and elderly people out in the streets. It's absolutely out of control.

Yep. Fuck those stupid fucks.

Ugh. I get it but this is the reaction that leads to the Israelis leveling a building with 100 innocent people in it to get a weapon cache. And the West remains quiet when they overreact. That's what continues this cycle.

It's hard not to see that Gazans and Palestinians feel hopeless and the result is that they'll kill anyone they see because they see them all as an enemy. So I get being upset but this is one time where both sides are wrong. Not equally but we're not children. If we are going to say that Gazans/Hamas killing civilians makes them terrorists then we have to be prepared to criticize Israelis when they do the same.

I’m not sure how you get to “this is one time where both sides are wrong” when Hamas has orchestrated a massive surprise attack into Israel, but let’s leave that aside for now.

Because that is the reality of it. Largely unreported here but yesterday Israeli settlers set a Palestinian village on fire while the IDF watched. That was just yesterday. This has been the deadliest year in decades if you were a Palestinian civilian. About 250 civilians including something like 50 children have been killed by Israeli aligned forces this year. Multiple times goon squads went into mosques and cracked skulls in plain daylight. A lot of pressure was put on these people.

So frankly this wasn't unprovoked. Not excusing their actions but there are no clean hands here is what I'm getting at. This wasn't some mindless horde of evil people lashing out. This is a people who've been oppressed for decades and live in some of the most miserable conditions possible. 2 Million people imprisoned in a tiny strip of land. Context is extremely important because the West has as usual pretty much given a green light to Israel and that very well could mean this expands or happens again some time down the road.

One of the things that makes me so upset about this Hamas attack against Israel is that it will obviously cause the country to rally around Netanyahu. It makes so little sense for the Palestinians to attack Israel now.

It makes total sense to them though. The US and Israeli's are increasingly close to isolating them diplomatically from Arab partners. FWIW when we think someone is doing something irrational at this scale it is probably because we're missing part of the story. That doesn't mean it wasn't a mistake but something clearly drove them to time it now.

Israeli society is fractured internally and trying to figure out its identity. There’s a not unrealistic scenario where the result of that internal Israeli struggle could have been the demise of Netanyahu and the erosion of power of the Israeli hard right. Now? Fuck it. The Israelis are going to war and are going to absolutely crush Gaza until they’ve reclaimed every single Israeli hostage taken across the border. And there will be massive support for Netanyahu in this time of crisis. Did you see his televised address this morning? I kept thinking that it must be hard for him to restrain his glee. Stupid fucking Palestinians.

You are making an assumption that they care about Israel going hard right or they don't want the Israelis to become authoritarian. They may calculate that may sap their support in the world. Also, it is pretty clear there is (was?) a massive rift between the IDF and Netanyahu that they saw and maybe made them feel they could achieve their goals.

And, of course, the Israeli response will be disproportionate, because, well, this is Israel we’re talking about and that’s how they roll. It’s in their DNA at this point - they are a tiny nation surrounded by enemies who hate their guts and want them dead. They respond to a slap with a sledgehammer because they’ve convinced themselves that’s how they survive.

And yet their security situation remains unstable.

And many, many more Palestinian civilians will die. Militants and innocents, both. Women, children, elderly. It all just sucks.

Agreed. And again they may understand their people who are feeling completely hopeless and willing to trade lives for a slim chance at something better instead of being erased slowly.

[Kurth]

If they want a chance for something better, maybe they and their leaders could stop insisting that Israel should cease to exist.

Just a thought . . .

[Isgrimnur]

You never bargain starting at your final solution.

[Blackhawk]

You never bargain starting at your final solution.

Wow.

[Holman]

There are no good guys in this fight. Which do you prefer, the apartheid state or the terrorists?

Or there are four sides: Netanyahu's apartheid regime, Hamas' terrorist regime, and two large groups of vulnerable civilians caught between them.

[Unagi]

they seem to have improved their communication security and were able to stage and coordinate a broad attack without Israeli intelligence detecting it.

Honestly, almost unbelievable that something of this scale and complexity was completely missed by Israel.

One would almost say it's incredible.

[Kurth]

Lots of speculation right now that this is going to cause Israel to rethink its approach to Gaza. They’ve avoided a full scale invasion after all the various attacks and incursions that have happened since the Gazans elected Hamas and put them in power. That may be coming to an end. The IDF and Israel’s intelligence services were humiliated by this attack and belittled. As I mentioned above, it’s hardwired into Israeli culture/society/politics that Israel cannot afford to ever look weak. I’m afraid this may lead to a full scale ground invasion of Gaza, which will probably be disastrous for all involved.

[Unagi]

Wow. Welp, I guess we found out the Iron Dome isn’t effective against post apocalyptic marauders raining death from above via hang glider.

There is only one dome for that.

[Holman]

In addition to the massive intelligence failures, it looks like Netanyahu spent the past many months stripping IDF resources from the south in order to protect and advance settler violence in the north. This is something the military itself tried to push back against.

The contrast is severe: the administration used the military to protect aggressive and illegal social violence in areas most allies would prefer that they left alone, and this left predictably vulnerable home areas all but undefended.

And so now we see Hamas fighters literally dancing on top of unmanned IDF tanks and IFVs in abandoned IDF motorpools. That's Vietnam Huey-on-the-roof level stuff.

[waitingtoconnect]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

It’s inconceivable that Israeli intelligence missed something this big. Either warnings internally were ignored or dismissed due to the political tensions. Anything this big usually gets nipped in the bud very fast .

I’m sure all those guys practicing their hang gliding would have noticed in a territory barley double the size of DC.

And even if they did attack usually any attempt is cut to ribbons. Now they can smash all these top of the line tanks to bits? It seems incredible the army that’s always prepared wasn’t prepared.

As with so many bad things happening to israel BiBi is the one winner here. This is a massive poll booster for him.

[Victoria Raverna]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

I don’t think this is exactly what you’re trying to say, but Hamas is not a parallel to Ukraine. Not in any way. They are terrorists.

They are terrorists to you but freedom fighters to their side. Just like the Ukraine fighters are terrorists to Russia and freedom fighters to their side.

[malchior]

Hopefully it is just isolated but an Egyptian policeman executed 2 Israelis in Alexandria. Another Egyptian was killed as well.

[Holman]

An Israeli journalist in Jerusalem is saying that apparently Netanyahi and the IDF have been at odds and the IDF has been warning about an attack. Bibi was apparently playing it down in his Trump-y attacks on the "elite" in the IDF. On top, Netanyahu's hardline right-wing government has been putting immense pressure on Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas clearly saw a crack in the Israeli state and took a real shot here. As far as we know there are still militants actively fighting and rampaging in Gazan border towns.

I have to wonder also how much if any influence, seeing a Ukraine David taking on the Russian Goliath had any inspiration for this (suicide, IMO) attack.

Some of the videos of them just shooting up any passing civilian car is horrifying. I am also aware of similar previous Israeli atrocities, but I don't take sides when I see innocent civvies being targeted and shot in any kind of conflict. Objectively fucked up.

I don’t think this is exactly what you’re trying to say, but Hamas is not a parallel to Ukraine. Not in any way. They are terrorists.

They are terrorists to you but freedom fighters to their side. Just like the Ukraine fighters are terrorists to Russia and freedom fighters to their side.

Intentionally killing and kidnapping civilians is terrorism, no matter what it calls itself.

[Unagi]

Intentionally killing and kidnapping civilians is terrorism, no matter what it calls itself.

I don't disagree, I will just point out that sometimes it calls itself the Israeli Government.

[Pyperkub]

Lots of speculation right now that this is going to cause Israel to rethink its approach to Gaza. They’ve avoided a full scale invasion after all the various attacks and incursions that have happened since the Gazans elected Hamas and put them in power. That may be coming to an end. The IDF and Israel’s intelligence services were humiliated by this attack and belittled. As I mentioned above, it’s hardwired into Israeli culture/society/politics that Israel cannot afford to ever look weak. I’m afraid this may lead to a full scale ground invasion of Gaza, which will probably be disastrous for all involved.

My speculation based on his past actions and temperament is that there is a non zero chance that Netanyahu had prior intelligence and did nothing.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[malchior]

I don't know if it'll be as hard as ignoring hard evidence or foreknowledge. It is appearing to be more like 9/11 where they had warnings but didn't take them seriously. Fertile ground for truther ideas for sure.

Some of the failures are starting to already come out. For example, one thing I heard was that the Israeli's observed Hamas practicing some of the maneuvers they executed over the last 2 weeks. Unfortunately, the assessment was that it wasn't serious and Hamas was just posturing or 'messing with their heads'.

[Smoove_B]

I know everyone is focused on the war stuff currently unfolding (rightfully so), but I did not see this coming. I'm putting it here because of the "associated politics".

Hackers have compiled a giant apparent list of people with Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry after taking that information from the genetic testing service 23andMe, which is now being shared on the internet.

Link to story.

Note:

In an emailed statement, a 23andMe spokesperson said the company believes it wasn’t hacked per se. Instead, it believes that the hackers simply gained some users’ passwords that had been hacked and leaked from other sites, then exploited the fact that 23andMe can give users vast access to each others’ genetic information.