Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread
Posted: Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:13 pm
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
https://octopusoverlords.com/forum/
“I can’t underscore enough how devastating an indictment would be to the Trump Org,” tweeted Daniel Goldman, a former assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York who prosecuted mafia families and insider traders. “Every lender would call their loans and no way Trump Org can pay them all, likely leading to bankruptcy.”
“That would be almost a death blow to the Trump Organization,” Mr. Goldman told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace. “No bank will ever do business with an indicted company.”
...
Richard Signorelli, another former prosecutor with the Southern District of New York, echoed that theory on Twitter, speculating that an indictment of the Trump Organization would “likely result in its destruction as a viable entity.”
“For Donald Trump's businesses, just getting charged could be devastating, even before any potential guilty verdict,” Paul Butler, a professor at Georgetown Law, told MSNBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin. Butler is a former federal prosecutor with the U.S. Department of Justice, where his specialty was public corruption.
“When an organization with a lot of debt gets charged with a crime, banks can call the loans. They can require all the outstanding debt to be paid back immediately,” said Butler. “If the Trump Organization doesn't have enough assets to pay off its loans, it would have to consider bankruptcy. And so this could be the beginning of the end of Donald Trump’s business empire.”
I don't pretend to know anything about the structure of the Trump organization, but I imagine that it wouldn't just disappear entirely. I expect it would dissolve under the Trump banner, then simply reform as a new org likely under a different name (given the toxicity of the Trump brand outside of the MAGAsphere).Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:43 pm I really don't know what to make of any of it. On the one hand, Donald Trump. On the other:
“I can’t underscore enough how devastating an indictment would be to the Trump Org,” tweeted Daniel Goldman, a former assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York who prosecuted mafia families and insider traders. “Every lender would call their loans and no way Trump Org can pay them all, likely leading to bankruptcy.”
“That would be almost a death blow to the Trump Organization,” Mr. Goldman told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace. “No bank will ever do business with an indicted company.”
...
Richard Signorelli, another former prosecutor with the Southern District of New York, echoed that theory on Twitter, speculating that an indictment of the Trump Organization would “likely result in its destruction as a viable entity.”
“For Donald Trump's businesses, just getting charged could be devastating, even before any potential guilty verdict,” Paul Butler, a professor at Georgetown Law, told MSNBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin. Butler is a former federal prosecutor with the U.S. Department of Justice, where his specialty was public corruption.
“When an organization with a lot of debt gets charged with a crime, banks can call the loans. They can require all the outstanding debt to be paid back immediately,” said Butler. “If the Trump Organization doesn't have enough assets to pay off its loans, it would have to consider bankruptcy. And so this could be the beginning of the end of Donald Trump’s business empire.”
I will say aside from everything else that we don't know yet about this, it very much matters what the scale and aggressiveness of the conduct was. Which given Trump, could add up to quite a bit. Like I read the other day that Trump was letting Weisselberg live rent free in Trump Tower. Suppose the market rate for that was something like $6,000/month, and that went on for a few decades, that easily gets into the millions. And one imagines that there's considerably more as well.
Weissleberg is charged with Grand Larceny in the second degree
Trump Org charged with scheme to defraud in the first degree
Yup - good call. It ended up in the 50K - 1M dollar range of 'damages'. FWIW a couple of tv lawsplainers think he might be looking at a minimal jail sentence or probation and fines. Or he flips on a former President with a cult behind him.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:30 amI will say aside from everything else that we don't know yet about this, it very much matters what the scale and aggressiveness of the conduct was. Which given Trump, could add up to quite a bit. Like I read the other day that Trump was letting Weisselberg live rent free in Trump Tower. Suppose the market rate for that was something like $6,000/month, and that went on for a few decades, that easily gets into the millions. And one imagines that there's considerably more as well.
Vance is a literal institutionalist. He was raised in the machine, he breathes it, and he has winked and nodded often at elites (including Kushner and Ivanka) which is why I'm glad she is involved.That said, really my main concern here is that Vance is running the show on this. I'm not an expert on him, but my general sense is that he doesn't have a great reputation for either competence or integrity. Though the NYAG is involved as well, though I'm not sure how long they've been on it.
I worked in a town where the Clerk's office had a small locking metal cash safe (like someone would use at a folding table at a little league game if they were keeping money for tickets or hot dogs) labeled "slush fund". It was a cash box used for exactly what it sounds like.
No, that was actually a "Slushie fund" for frequent trips to 7-11.Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:15 pmI worked in a town where the Clerk's office had a small locking metal cash safe (like someone would use at a folding table at a little league game if they were keeping money for tickets or hot dogs) labeled "slush fund". It was a cash box used for exactly what it sounds like.
There are days i think I should write a book...to be published after I die.
During my first year of law school I interviewed for an unpaid internship with the Rhode Island governor's office where the interviewer spent 90% of the time talking about how corrupt Rhode Island politics was. I was like "sooooo...what I'm hearing is that this isn't actually unpaid?"Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:15 pmI worked in a town where the Clerk's office had a small locking metal cash safe (like someone would use at a folding table at a little league game if they were keeping money for tickets or hot dogs) labeled "slush fund". It was a cash box used for exactly what it sounds like.
There are days i think I should write a book...to be published after I die.
My first real 'adult job' was at an institution where there was an office nearby that never seemed to be in use. I later found out it was linked to a State Senator's no show job. Classic NJ.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:26 pmDuring my first year of law school I interviewed for an unpaid internship with the Rhode Island governor's office where the interviewer spent 90% of the time talking about how corrupt Rhode Island politics was. I was like "sooooo...what I'm hearing is that this isn't actually unpaid?"Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:15 pmI worked in a town where the Clerk's office had a small locking metal cash safe (like someone would use at a folding table at a little league game if they were keeping money for tickets or hot dogs) labeled "slush fund". It was a cash box used for exactly what it sounds like.
There are days i think I should write a book...to be published after I die.
I don't feel like it is politically motivated per se. It more reeks of doing something to justify all the grandstanding and work they've poured into this investigative adventure.
Which was largely politically motivated from the start. Not that I'm complaining, but let's call a spade a spade: If this wasn't all connected to Trump, it would be so much "ho-hum, bunch of rich white Manhattan guys playing fast and loose with their taxes."
The timing doesn't make it political "motivated" either. More like a political by-product. Trump ran for President and many stories were published indicating corruption and indicated potential illegality. That an official picked up the ball is hardly surprising. In fact, it was essential. That they look like they pulled the punch appears more political to me than the fact that they charged at all IMO.LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:53 am Does the investigation precede 2015? If not, it's hard to see how it's not politically motivated.
That's the rub. You'll get accusations of politicization no matter what. These officials have an important job factor. Pursue a course of action that reinforces rule of law. As you say, I'd estimate it is not even a little bit close enough to counter the corrosion he has inflicted though.Political or not, in the world of white collar financial crime, so far it looks small, like a waste of resources for little gain. No retribution, no deterrent, very little if any utility.
Yeah. Like everyone with 2 brain cells to rub together they know he is a racketeering and thuggish mob boss. They are constantly playing defense to stop people from flipping. It is their main line of defense. Now that Trump has a cult not shy about levying death threats he has even more impunity. That is in essence why he is such a danger still and why the DOJ dereliction of duty to hold him accountable for his documented federal crimes is so distressing.That the TO legal team are claiming claims it's being used to get the CFO to flip, suggests to me the TO legal team knows there's something to flip on, though.
I dunno, I feel like people are underselling these charges a bit. Another way of saying what you wrote is that Weisselberg ran a detailed scheme with meticulous records evidencing intentional tax fraud on $1.6 million. This guy got 4.5 years in prison for that kind of tax fraud on $1 million in income.Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:37 pm Small potatoes is an understatement. In essence, this indictment is based on Weisellberg underreporting his income by $110K per year over the 16 years covered. In Manhattan. That’s a rounding error to these guys.
What’s really funny to me is, this is all about what a cheapskate Trump is.
As I read the indictment, the really bad facts for Weisselberg and the Trump Org are about how they kept a separate set of books to track all of Weisselberg’s perks (rent, parking, utilities, holiday entertainment, etc.). They kept those detailed records so they could be sure to reduce Weisselberg’s income by a corresponding amount. I would think all that could have just been done informally and with a “gentleman’s understanding,” but it seems like Scrooge McTrump’s desire to nickel-and-dime his chief lieutenant and offset his salary by every cent possible precluded that kind of informal arrangement.
In the end, not shedding a tear for Weisselberg’s or the Trump Org. But this does seem like it’s politically motivated and transparent.
Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance’s criminal charges against the Trump Organization don’t just create legal jeopardy for the former president’s company. They also could damage its business interests — regardless of whether or not a jury ultimately finds the company guilty.
Multiple experts on white-collar crime told POLITICO that it’s unclear how exactly Thursday’s legal developments will impact the company. But they agree that the charges — alleging conspiracy, grand larceny and tax crimes — could bring serious risk to the Trump Organization’s future.
Ultimately the big question is whether Trump himself will be indicted (by either state or federal authorities) for anything at some point. That's what really matters. If he isn't the rest of this won't matter all that much, even if Weisselberg goes to prison for five years and/or other people in Trump World go to prison as well.
Agree completely. I just don’t see this turning into that unless something really unexpected happens. And I consider Weisselberg selling out Trump as something really unexpected.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:05 amUltimately the big question is whether Trump himself will be indicted (by either state or federal authorities) for anything at some point. That's what really matters. If he isn't the rest of this won't matter all that much, even if Weisselberg goes to prison for five years and/or other people in Trump World go to prison as well.
Oh that's a solid point. He's got Rudy's kid for that then.
I agree that it seems unlikely that these charges will turn into indictments of Trump absent cooperation by Weisselberg or someone similar. The odds of there being some charges of some type against Trump are harder to assess, but I think they're higher. I don't think there's any shortage of federal prosecutors willing to investigate Trump, nor any shortage of things to investigate. I'm also inclined to think that if Garland or a deputy shuts down or blocks investigations of Trump that someone will leak that, though hard to say for sure.Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:27 amAgree completely. I just don’t see this turning into that unless something really unexpected happens. And I consider Weisselberg selling out Trump as something really unexpected.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:05 amUltimately the big question is whether Trump himself will be indicted (by either state or federal authorities) for anything at some point. That's what really matters. If he isn't the rest of this won't matter all that much, even if Weisselberg goes to prison for five years and/or other people in Trump World go to prison as well.
Well, it wouldn't be crazy for Weisselberg to plan around Trump possibly becoming president again in 2025. It probably makes sense for him to fight these charges (and try to delay things as much as humanly possible). If the charges continue to stick and he either gets convicted or looks like he's going to get convicted, he can assess the political situation then and whether a Trump restoration seems likely, and if not can always flip at that point.
The thing I worry about here is the DOJ may be infested with Trump boosters. All the people who swept his problems under the rug are still there. And Garland appears to have institutional instincts to protect the DOJ and the Presidency. Certainly not as extreme as Barr but until we see action I reserve my right to be pretty cynical about chances for societal scale justice at this point.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:51 amI agree that it seems unlikely that these charges will turn into indictments of Trump absent cooperation by Weisselberg or someone similar. The odds of there being some charges of some type against Trump are harder to assess, but I think they're higher. I don't think there's any shortage of federal prosecutors willing to investigate Trump, nor any shortage of things to investigate.
Considering the outrageous conduct at the DOJ and the revelations that only came out after the gag orders were released a few months ago...I don't know about this. The DOJ concerns me. It had issues around the 'imperial Presidency' going back years but now we see hints there are deep institutional problems that we simply aren't seeing. It has unhealthy institutional resistance to appropriate levels of transparency with the public (directly, journalistically, or even via Congress). It's not just about politicization and we can't see it even if it is happening.I'm also inclined to think that if Garland or a deputy shuts down or blocks investigations of Trump that someone will leak that, though hard to say for sure.
Congressional Democrats' years-long attempt to nail down whether then-President Donald Trump lied to special counsel Robert Mueller effectively ended on Friday, with the US Supreme Court wiping away court decisions where the House Judiciary Committee was told it could access secret grand jury records from key witnesses in the Mueller investigation.
The House now won't get those grand jury records -- bringing to a close Democrats' pursuit of what witnesses in the Mueller investigation said confidentially under oath about their interactions with Trump and others during the 2016 campaign.
Since 2019, the Judiciary Committee had sought access to records from the Mueller investigation's grand jury proceedings, which were cited in Mueller's report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. The House had repeatedly said it wanted the records so it could consider whether to impeach Trump for attempting to obstruct the Russia investigation, which Mueller also documented.
But over the past two years, the fight plodded through the court system, with the Justice Department under Trump unsuccessfully arguing to block the release of the grand jury documents. The Supreme Court initially had agreed to hear the case, but then delayed it following Trump's loss of the presidency in November.
On Friday, the high court vacated earlier rulings. The Justice Department under President Joe Biden wanted this result, saying the case had become moot. The House didn't oppose the department's move.
But a top lawyer for the House in June noted the case was ending because Trump was no longer President.