Ukraine

[Max Peck]

So, May 10th was the day they said they would be leaving. IIRC.

He reversed course on that a few days ago. Says that Putin has agreed to give him additional supplies and operational freedom. Obviously not to be taken at face value, of course.

He reversed that reverse yesterday(?), saying that the promised supplies had not materialized.

Russian mercenary chief says he's been told to stay in Bakhmut or be branded traitor

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force fighting in eastern Ukraine said on Tuesday he had been told he and his men would be regarded as traitors if they abandoned their positions in the city of Bakhmut.

But Yevgeny Prigozhin said for the second time in a matter of days that his forces would leave Bakhmut if they did not receive the ammunition they needed to press the battle.

He delivered his latest tirade in a profanity-laced audio message which coincided with Russia marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two with its traditional parade on Moscow's Red Square.

"A combat order came yesterday which clearly stated that if we leave our positions (in Bakhmut), it will be regarded as treason against the motherland. That was the message to us," Prigozhin said.

"(But) if there is no ammunition, then we will leave our positions and be the ones asking who is really betraying the Motherland. Apparently, the one (betraying the Motherland) is the person who signed it (the order to supply too little ammunition."

[Kraken]

Prigozhin seems confident that there are no windows remaining in Bakhmut from which he might fall.

I think he understands that he has chosen a high risk high reward profession.

Yeah, I'm guessing the retirement plan is pretty sketchy.

[malchior]

Prigozhin seems confident that there are no windows remaining in Bakhmut from which he might fall.

I think he understands that he has chosen a high risk high reward profession.

Yeah, I'm guessing the retirement plan is pretty sketchy.

We also need to keep in mind that Putin probably wants/need Prigozhin to be cut down to size. Part of the dance that is the ridiculous balance of power inside Russia.

In other news, some of the dispatches we are seeing says that Wagner pulled back into Bakhmut proper and handed over some of the flanking positions south and north of Bakhmut to the Russian military. There is some noise that Ukraine is already conducting shaping operations and counteroffensive activity and making gains. It'd be delicious to see them break through and cut off Wagner but that might be a bit far-fetched.

Heh - update! Prigozhin whined about this too - he is claiming a Russian brigade fled and exposed Wagner flanks. It's weird when a war turns into a modern social media melt down.

[Max Peck]

The comments by the Russian warblogger quoted in the CNN article are interesting. She says that Wagner pulled out from the flank position without informing the Russian military, and the Russian brigade that was routed had no infantry of its own to hold the territory. If that's true, then Prigozhin himself made it possible for Ukraine to advance on his flank by unilaterally shifting his forces into Bakhmut.

[Daehawk]

It's weird when a war turns into a modern social media melt down.

I wonder if they're using Warhammer 40K to test troops deployment strategies.

[gilraen]

The comments by the Russian warblogger quoted in the CNN article are interesting. She says that Wagner pulled out from the flank position without informing the Russian military, and the Russian brigade that was routed had no infantry of its own to hold the territory. If that's true, then Prigozhin himself made it possible for Ukraine to advance on his flank by unilaterally shifting his forces into Bakhmut.

WaPo is reporting that Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine if Russian pulled any more troops out of Bakhmut and left Wagner there to fend for themselves. Apparently he's also been leaking other military intelligence to Ukrainian leadership (who don't necessarily trust it to be accurate, and it may not be particularly useful, but he may still be disclosing more than what Moscow will be comfortable with).

[El Guapo]

The comments by the Russian warblogger quoted in the CNN article are interesting. She says that Wagner pulled out from the flank position without informing the Russian military, and the Russian brigade that was routed had no infantry of its own to hold the territory. If that's true, then Prigozhin himself made it possible for Ukraine to advance on his flank by unilaterally shifting his forces into Bakhmut.

WaPo is reporting that Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine if Russian pulled any more troops out of Bakhmut and left Wagner there to fend for themselves. Apparently he's also been leaking other military intelligence to Ukrainian leadership (who don't necessarily trust it to be accurate, and it may not be particularly useful, but he may still be disclosing more than what Moscow will be comfortable with).

I don't totally get what Prigozhin gets out of leaking that sort of thing. Is the hope that Ukraine would use that to destroy Russian conventional units, thereby giving Prigozhin more leverage / standing vs. the Russian military?

[gilraen]

The comments by the Russian warblogger quoted in the CNN article are interesting. She says that Wagner pulled out from the flank position without informing the Russian military, and the Russian brigade that was routed had no infantry of its own to hold the territory. If that's true, then Prigozhin himself made it possible for Ukraine to advance on his flank by unilaterally shifting his forces into Bakhmut.

WaPo is reporting that Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine if Russian pulled any more troops out of Bakhmut and left Wagner there to fend for themselves. Apparently he's also been leaking other military intelligence to Ukrainian leadership (who don't necessarily trust it to be accurate, and it may not be particularly useful, but he may still be disclosing more than what Moscow will be comfortable with).

I don't totally get what Prigozhin gets out of leaking that sort of thing. Is the hope that Ukraine would use that to destroy Russian conventional units, thereby giving Prigozhin more leverage / standing vs. the Russian military?

He's a merc. He can't make money if his troops are dead. He's already going through manpower faster than he can recruit them (hence the push to get prisoners and mental patients released into his "cannon fodder" brigades). But the Ukraine war is a relatively minor part of his operation. He can't afford to screw up his real money-makers (like "protecting" government in Africa) because either his resources or his reputation are suffering.

[El Guapo]

The comments by the Russian warblogger quoted in the CNN article are interesting. She says that Wagner pulled out from the flank position without informing the Russian military, and the Russian brigade that was routed had no infantry of its own to hold the territory. If that's true, then Prigozhin himself made it possible for Ukraine to advance on his flank by unilaterally shifting his forces into Bakhmut.

WaPo is reporting that Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine if Russian pulled any more troops out of Bakhmut and left Wagner there to fend for themselves. Apparently he's also been leaking other military intelligence to Ukrainian leadership (who don't necessarily trust it to be accurate, and it may not be particularly useful, but he may still be disclosing more than what Moscow will be comfortable with).

I don't totally get what Prigozhin gets out of leaking that sort of thing. Is the hope that Ukraine would use that to destroy Russian conventional units, thereby giving Prigozhin more leverage / standing vs. the Russian military?

He's a merc. He can't make money if his troops are dead. He's already going through manpower faster than he can recruit them (hence the push to get prisoners and mental patients released into his "cannon fodder" brigades). But the Ukraine war is a relatively minor part of his operation. He can't afford to screw up his real money-makers (like "protecting" government in Africa) because either his resources or his reputation are suffering.

Isn't Putin his only paying client? My understanding is that Wagner, though styled as a mercenary group, is more of a paramilitary organization than a true mercenary group (if it were the latter, then presumably Ukraine / the West could make life easier for themselves by outbidding Putin for Wagner).

[gilraen]

Isn't Putin his only paying client?

Oh...not even close.

However, since Prigozhin is an ally of Putin, presumably he doesn't get hired onto engagements that would go against Russian politics (at least not openly...)

[Max Peck]

Assuming it's true, he probably wasn't worrying about anything other than delivering on his vow to take Bakhmut before Victory Day (he promised to succeed by then before he threatened to retreat by then). I've also seen it suggested that he was peddling false information at the behest of the Kremlin in an attempt to mislead Ukrainian forces.

Either way...

[Carpet_pissr]

Gah!!! Startled me. Striking resemblance to Herzog’s ‘Nosferatu’.

[LawBeefaroni]

It's unlikely that UA intelligence will make any kind of deal with Prigozhin since he'd be considered highly untrustworthy. If nothing happens, he still manages to get his name in the papers alongside world leaders and puts a touch of fear in Moscow.

If he does somehow broker a deal, it would hasten Putin's downfall and its no secret that Prigozhin has higher ambitions.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/put ... ell-blood/

Here’s the bigger question. It does not actually matter if Prigozhin’s rants are a part of some Kremlin conspiracy to rein in the military, or simply a reflection of Prigozhin’s own frustrations and ambitions. What matters is the image he is projecting. This image is not favourable to Putin. It is an image of bourgeoning chaos, weakness, and of Putin’s inability to reconcile competing interests of warring factions. It is an image of Putin in terminal decline.

Putin came to power on the promise to strengthen the Russian state. Early in his tenure he ruthlessly cut down the oligarchs, imposing what he called a ‘vertical of power’. Now, though, this vertical is beginning to strain and crack under stress. The elites know that the tsar has no clothes. The military doubt his wisdom. The people – the proverbial masses – look on passively, no longer certain of anything, tired of war, and generally unwilling to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Putin’s faded greatness.

It is this uncertainly that Prigozhin is now seeking to exploit for his sinister ends.

[dbt1949]

There are probably hundreds of videos out there showing Russian equipment getting blown up by Ukrainian drones. Why isn't Russian showing videos of Ukrainian equipment being blown up by Russian drones or even artillery or planes for that matter?
Is it just a matter of biased news?

[LawBeefaroni]

There are probably hundreds of videos out there showing Russian equipment getting blown up by Ukrainian drones. Why isn't Russian showing videos of Ukrainian equipment being blown up by Russian drones or even artillery or planes for that matter?
Is it just a matter of biased news?

Most of these come from social media so it's not a news issue.


Russian soldiers probably don't have cameras or comms to send videos. Even if they did, doubt they'd be allowed to because they'd probably also send evidence of their shitry conditions.

Ukrainians do it as a matter of policy. It's part of their war effort.



There this, a British made FV103, purportedly taken out by a Russian drone:




Unclear who's taking the footage though.

[Max Peck]

Unclear who's taking the footage though.

The tweet cites a tiktok video as the source. The specific video seems to be gone now, but it looks like it was from what I believe to be a Ukrainian account: https://www.tiktok.com/@svitl94ok/

[dbt1949]

Yalls explanations do make sense.

[Max Peck]

Apparently Russia managed to conduct a coordinated missile strike near Kyiv, in an attempt to take out a Patriot battery. Russia claims mission accomplished, while Ukraine claims all the missiles were intercepted, including a half dozen of Putin's Kinzhal wonder weapons.

Ukraine says it downed several Russian hypersonic missiles in 'exceptional' attack

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a super-weapon Moscow had previously touted as all but unstoppable.

It was the first time Ukraine had claimed to have struck an entire volley of multiple hypersonic missiles, and if confirmed, it would be a demonstration of the effectiveness of newly deployed Western air defences.

Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system with a Kinzhal missile, the Zvezda military news outlet reported.

But the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said all of the Kinzhals had been successfully intercepted.

Zaluzhnyi said his forces had intercepted the six Kinzhals launched from aircraft, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and three Iskanders fired from land.

The specificity of saying all the Kinzhals were intercepted rather than that the battery was undamaged makes me wonder if something else did get through. Hopefully I'm just reading too much into the quote.

[LawBeefaroni]

The specificity of saying all the Kinzhals were intercepted rather than that the battery was undamaged makes me wonder if something else did get through. Hopefully I'm just reading too much into the quote.

That's kind of how I read it too.

[Max Peck]

Other reporting says that the Ukrainians have declined to comment on the Russian claim, which is valid from an opsec pov regardless of what actually happened. I expect there will be some independent confirmation one way or the other soon enough.

[hitbyambulance]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... t_down_in/

[Max Peck]

US assessing potential damage of Patriot missile defense system following Russian attack near Kyiv

A US-made Patriot air defense system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a US official tells CNN.

The US is still assessing to what degree the system was damaged, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by Ukrainians forces.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

A US National Security Council spokesperson referred CNN to the Ukrainian government for comment.

Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit. “We cannot comment on this. We’ll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” said the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman, Yurii Ihnat.

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged, but taking one out of commission – even for a short period – could affect Ukraine’s ability to defend Kyiv amid intensifying Russian missile attacks.

Russia has targeted the Patriot systems with hypersonic missiles before, US officials told CNN last week, including once on May 4. That attack failed, and Ukrainians successfully intercepted the missile before it could hit the Patriot, the officials said.

[Grifman]

Amazing:

[Kraken]

Amazing:

The lower photo is newer? How did they un-destroy all those mature trees?

[Unagi]

The lower photo is newer? How did they un-destroy all those mature trees?

Spring ?

[Kraken]

The lower photo is newer? How did they un-destroy all those mature trees?

Spring ?

I guess. The trees in the upper photo look blasted to me, but it could just be the image.

[Carpet_pissr]

It’s not exactly the same position, but it does seem to be the same street. I think the top one is further down the ‘hill’ a bit.

[Unagi]

And clearly, one is given a bit of a Spring Green filter, while the other one is very monochromatic.

[Carpet_pissr]

And clearly, one is given a bit of a Spring Green filter, while the other one is very monochromatic.

Not sure if serious? It’s spring/summer in one and winter in the trashed one (and appears to be snowing to boot).

[malchior]

The lower photo is newer? How did they un-destroy all those mature trees?

Spring ?

I guess. The trees in the upper photo look blasted to me, but it could just be the image.

Some of the trees likely survived. There also appear to be a lot of newly planted trees that help to fill in the gaps.

[Unagi]

And clearly, one is given a bit of a Spring Green filter, while the other one is very monochromatic.

Not sure if serious? It’s spring/summer in one and winter in the trashed one (and appears to be snowing to boot).

I'm serious, but I'm not laying it on thick.
I'm a photographer, a hobby for 30+ years... I think one of the photos was given a little boost to saturation, the other could be seen as given a little (negative) on the saturation scale.

[malchior]

[Daehawk]

orcs

[waitingtoconnect]

Not withstanding Russia's illegal actions in annexing territory, invading its neighbour and clearly targeting civilians, in times of war schools often make excellent troop gathering points and temporary barracks. This is because of the space for troops to sleep and most schools will have cooking facilities, showers and bathrooms. Provided children aren't using them, and likely they will not be in this tough times, they COULD if being used by the military a legitimate target under the rules of warfare. US forces have targeted schools used by other militaries in the past.

From human rights watch (https://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/usa1203/4.5.htm):

Around midnight on April 24, the U.S. Air Force dropped at least one CBU-103 on al-Hadaf girls’ primary school in al-Hilla. The strike killed school guard Hussam Hussain, 65, and neighbor Hamid Hamza, 45, and injured thirteen others, according to Hamid Mahdi, a 30-year-old butcher who lived across the street. The manager of the school said there were dozens of paramilitary troops in the neighborhood at the time of the strike.

[Isgrimnur]

And those who bomb schools should be ready and willing to demonstrate the intel that suggests that it is a legitimate target.

[waitingtoconnect]

Absolutely they must. Targeting of civilian infrastructure not in active use by opposition military forces is a war crime.

Based on how the Russians are going about attacking the schools, the scale and the intensity of the attacks could be judged as intimidation and "acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population".

This is forbidden under international humanitarian law and was confirmed as a war crime by rulings of the U.N. tribunal for the former Yugoslavia relating to the siege of Sarajevo.

[Daehawk]

Pretty amazing footage. And Im glad to see in war at least the Ukrainians can keep their humanity like this.

[waitingtoconnect]

Prigozhin seems confident that there are no windows remaining in Bakhmut from which he might fall.

I think he understands that he has chosen a high risk high reward profession.

Yeah, I'm guessing the retirement plan is pretty sketchy.

Retirement in the higher ranks of Russian power is usually violent. And if you do die peacefully you will be preserved to go on permanent public display to prove to everyone you are really dead.

[waitingtoconnect]

Pretty amazing footage. And Im glad to see in war at least the Ukrainians can keep their humanity like this.

Looks like he hid behind a destroyed bushmaster on route to the Ukrainian lines. That’s an Australian vehicle. Hopefully Ukraine haven’t lost too many of those (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushmas ... ty_Vehicle).

[Max Peck]

It looks like F-16s for Ukraine are a go, although I don't know if an 18-month time frame means they will get anything soon enough to make a difference.

Biden endorses plan to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, official says

U.S. President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that Washington supports a joint effort with allies to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, a senior administration official said, a key endorsement as Kyiv seeks to boost its air power against Russia's invading forces.

Training on the U.S.-made jets will take place in Europe and will require months to complete, the official said. U.S. officials have estimated the most expeditious time needed for training and delivery of F-16s at 18 months.

"As the training takes place over the coming months, our coalition of countries participating in this effort will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them," the official said.

The official did not say which countries would be participating in the effort. The U.S. hopes to begin the training, which will be conducted on fourth-generation fighters including F-16s, in the coming weeks, the official said.