Ukraine

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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

I think they are counting on another year of this at least. Which seems reasonable. The Russians are severely ground down but they don't care about throwing their men into the grinder. It sure seems we've been hardening them for a long slog to preserve and force multiply UA manpower. Biden and our allies are also probably preparing for the chance that we re-elect Trump. They likely want to get as much arms in their hands as possible in case America finally throws in the towel about being a functional super power in two years.
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Max Peck
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

According to the Washington Post, the US will not block other countries from transferring F-16s to Ukraine, but the US itself will not be providing any. (For now, hopefully... It wouldn't be the first time that the US was not providing something until suddenly it was providing it.)

Ukraine live briefing: U.S. won’t block transfer of F-16s to Kyiv, officials say
The Biden administration has informed European allies that Washington will not block their export of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, U.S. officials familiar with the decision told The Washington Post. Biden has ruled out U.S. deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine.

The decision follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated requests for fighter jets, including from the Netherlands. In February, Ukrainian officials said they had made significant progress in persuading Dutch officials to send F-16s, but Washington’s approval is necessary because of third-party transfer agreements associated with the purchase of the U.S.-made jets.

A transfer would require the sign-off of the chairs and ranking minority-party members of relevant U.S. congressional committees. While top GOP contenders for the presidency such as Donald Trump have criticized the scale of U.S. aid for Ukraine, senior Republican leaders in Congress have been supportive of it throughout the war.
It sounds like the congressional GOP could still block it, if they decide to take a hard turn toward Trumpist foreign policy.
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Reports are very unclear but some sort uprising (potentially backed by the Ukrainians like Putin backed the breakaway republics) has happened in the Belgorod in Russia.



At some point there were reports that one of the local police stations had been raided, uniforms and equipment stolen, and people were instructed to ignore police and the local garrisons may have been instructed to engage with people in police uniforms in the region. It is hard to understand what is happening yet but the war has come to Russia proper. Crazy times.

malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Another thing to consider is that this could very well be part of a distraction campaign ahead of a UA offensive operation. We'll see but who would have thought we'd eventually see Russians fighting Russians when they invaded last year.
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Daehawk
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Now Im totally confuselled. Who are these Free Russians? Are they pro Ukraine or anti Ukraine?

And is this good or bad for Ukraine?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

I don't know but I suspect they are Ukrainians who want to break away from the Ukraine.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

Politico
Two Russian military groups reportedly fighting on Kyiv’s side of the war in Ukraine — Legion of Free Russia and Russian Volunteer Corps — said they entered Russia’s Belgorod region on Monday and overran villages.
...
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Department claimed that both military groups consist only of Russian citizens and aim to create a demilitarized zone on the border with Ukraine.

“Yes, today the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Legion of Freedom of Russia, consisting of citizens of the Russian Federation, launched an operation to liberate these territories of the Belgorod region from the so-called Putin regime and push back the enemy in order to create a certain security zone to protect the Ukrainian civilian population,” Andriy Yusov, Ukraine’s military intelligence representative, told Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne.
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

It seems the Ukrainians apparently found some suicidal anti-Putinists and encouraged them to run amok in Belgorod.
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Daehawk
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Ah. So they're all pro Ukraine and against Russia. Good. Another dent for Putin to try and polish over on the home front.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

The Russian counterdefensive has begun.
malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Daehawk wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 7:36 pm Ah. So they're all pro Ukraine and against Russia. Good. Another dent for Putin to try and polish over on the home front.
Maybe pro Ukraine but by the sounds of it they are anti-Putin and pro Russia.
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Daehawk
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Alefroth wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 8:03 pm The Russian counterdefensive has begun.
Which one? I mean which side?
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LawBeefaroni
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 8:11 pm
Daehawk wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 7:36 pm Ah. So they're all pro Ukraine and against Russia. Good. Another dent for Putin to try and polish over on the home front.
Maybe pro Ukraine but by the sounds of it they are anti-Putin and pro Russia.
They are. They've been around since early last year and they're not just a bunch of dissatisfied soldiers who defected.
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Brian
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Brian »

Alefroth wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 8:03 pm The Russian counterdefensive has begun.
Slow clap
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

One news tidbit that I haven't seen mentioned here is that Putin sanctioned 500 Americans a few days ago in retaliation for new sanctions on Russia. The names on Putin's list match trump's enemies list. Putin will be all-in this election cycle, as trump will surely work to defund Ukraine and sow havoc in NATO.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

Daehawk wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 7:36 pm Ah. So they're all pro Ukraine and against Russia. Good. Another dent for Putin to try and polish over on the home front.
operation to liberate these territories of the Belgorod region from the so-called Putin regime
If that is to be believed, they are both.

Not every one believes

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/2 ... -on-russia
Moscow’s forces are continuing to engage in operations against cross-border raiders – described alternatively as either armed Russian opposition groups or Ukrainian saboteurs – who entered Russia from Ukraine in one of the most daring attacks on Russian territory since the Kremlin’s war on Kyiv began 15 months ago.

The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on Tuesday that a “counterterrorism operation” was continuing against what he had earlier described as a Ukrainian “sabotage group” which had entered Russian territory in the Graivoron district bordering Ukraine.
Russian counterdefensive has begun.
:clap:
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Grifman
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Grifman »

Peace lovers everywhere are urging Russia to cede Belgrade Oblast to Ukraine in the name of peace. Others insist that Russia should demilitarize and deNazify to bring peace.

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Daehawk
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Think Russia is just getting closer to falling apart. Bit of irony in Putin trying to bring back old Russia by attacking another nation only to really start the collapse of his own regime.

Video purportedly shows anti-Putin Russians helping Ukrainians stage incursion into Russia
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Yesterday the Russians claimed they had 'liquidated' all the insurgent Russians who crossed the border. It is more likely they retreated back into Ukraine. In any case, at the beginning of the raid the insurgents released a highly embarrassing video of them just rolling through an unmanned border post. The Russians did what they did best and later staged a 'victory' at the same border post. In typical Russian fashion they left all sorts of fingerprints *evident in the photos* that gives evidence how they did it.



Thread unrolled here - ;tldr the Russians faked it.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Man, I'm suck (such, SUCH!!!!!) a cynical dick.

My first reaction to that is "so we're supposed to just take Jack the Flute Magician's word for it? Maybe we as society writ large deserve/have created these $100K used chapstick times that we are living in.

I DESPISE the way that social media (and Twitter specifically) has seemingly turned the entire fucking world into clickbaity, pseudo-expert assholes (and even clickbaity ACTUAL expert assholes).

Maybe Jackfruit the Dick Mage IS a towtruck operator, hell, he PROBABLY is, and maybe his explanation is sound, but damn I hate the format and the "Know why this is stupid/wrong/bad/great/etc etc"? Well, I'M an EXPERT, and if you CLICK HERE (and tap that SUBSCRIBE button, BTW!!), I will EXPLAIN it to you, for only I hold the truth (TM). Swag for my channel is available at dickthemagefluteasshat.com"

While typing that, I was mentally on a lawn somewhere, shaking my fist at unseen, but very unruly teens tearing around the neighborhood in their underlit muscle cars.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Thu May 25, 2023 11:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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El Guapo
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Do we have any sense of whether this raid had any objectives besides bad PR / morale hit for the Russian government?
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 8:55 amMaybe Jackfruit the Dick Mage IS a towtruck operator, hell, he PROBABLY is, and maybe his explanation is sound, but damn I hate the format and the "Know why this is stupid/wrong/bad/great/etc etc"? Well, I'M an EXPERT, and if you CLICK HERE (and tap that SUBSCRIBE button, BTW!!), I will EXPLAIN it to you, for only I hold the truth (TM). Swag for my channel is available at dickthemagefulteasshat.com"
But that isn't what happened here. He just walked through it by making practical observations that didn't *require* the expertise to get the sense he's probably right which is the important part.
While typing that, I was mentally on a lawn somewhere, shaking my fist at unseen, but very unruly teens tearing around the neighborhood in their underlit muscle cars.
I get it - we should be on guard but sometimes it is just straightforward enough and he is mostly credentialing to some degree because people are *this cynical*.
El Guapo wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:07 am Do we have any sense of whether this raid had any objectives besides bad PR / morale hit for the Russian government?
A few folks have suggested they're part of a distraction effort to confuse the Russians as well in advance of an offensive. The UA is presently engaging in shaping and probing activities - efforts to confuse the enemy about where they will strike hardest and test where they are weak. This could be tied to that or it could have just been an evolution where they saw an opportunity and took it.

Edit: Another possibility is the UA wanted to stretch the Russian defensive line. The Russians for internal purposes would almost certainly want to prevent another highly embarrassing raid like this.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Head of Russian private army Wagner says more than 20,000 of his troops died in Bakhmut battle
The head of the Russian private army Wagner has again broken with the Kremlin line on Ukraine, saying its goal of demilitarizing the country has backfired, acknowledging Russian troops have killed civilians and agreeing with Western estimates that he’s lost more than 20,000 men in the battle for Bakhmut.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said about half of those who died in the eastern Ukrainian city were Russian convicts recruited for the 15-month-old war. His figures stood in stark contrast to Moscow’s widely disputed claims that just over 6,000 of its troops were killed throughout the war as of January. By comparison, official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 Afghanistan war were 15,000.
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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

That seems like a really heavy toll for a private army. What are/were his total numbers?

Wiki's list of casualties for this group going back to 2014:
  • War in Donbas - June 2014 – October 2015 - 30–80 killed
  • Syrian civil war - September 2015 – December 2017 - 151–201 killed 900+ wounded
  • Syrian civil war – Battle of Khasham - 7 February 2018 - 14–64 killed (confirmed) 80–100 killed (estimated) 100–200 wounded
  • Syrian civil war May 2018–present - 17 killed
  • Central African Republic Civil War - March 2018–present - 33 killed
  • Sudanese Revolution - December 2018 – January 2019 - 2 killed
  • Insurgency in Cabo Delgado - September 2019 – March 2020 - 11 killed
  • Second Libyan Civil War - September 2019–present - 21–48 killed
  • Mali War - December 2021–present - 1 killed
  • Russian invasion of Ukraine - 24 February 2022–present - 4,933 killed (confirmed) 9,000+ killed, 21,000+ wounded (estimated)
That (optimistically) 493 killed in the last 10 years, and then confirmed 10x that in Ukrain: 4,933 killed. (and as much as 20k in this battle?)


In December 2022, United States National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby claimed Wagner has 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts.
Last edited by Unagi on Wed May 24, 2023 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

It is so hard to understand news reports that use "casualties" as their go to word. I used to think it meant deaths but found out it means wounded and deaths. But sometimes it means either/or. I wish there was a better expression out there.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

dbt1949 wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:42 pm It is so hard to understand news reports that use "casualties" as their go to word. I used to think it meant deaths but found out it means wounded and deaths. But sometimes it means either/or. I wish there was a better expression out there.
There are details


See above.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

"Casualty" is a technical term that covers pretty much anything that renders personnel combat ineffective.
The military organisation NATO uses the following definitions:

Casualty
In relation to personnel, any person who is lost to his organization by reason of being declared dead, wounded, diseased, detained, captured or missing.

Battle casualty
Any casualty incurred as the direct result of hostile action, sustained in combat or relating thereto, or sustained going to or returning from a combat mission.

Non-battle casualty
A person who is not a battle casualty, but who is lost to his organization by reason of disease or injury, including persons dying from disease or injury, or by reason of being missing where the absence does not appear to be voluntary or due to enemy action or to being interned.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

They could simply use the standard KILLED or INJURED. Those are fairly clear and straight forward.
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Got to hand it to the Ukrainians. They are good at media. They effectively mixed in images of western equipment in the montage.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

It looks like the guy with the beard may be a chaplain, and he's reciting a very Old Testament war prayer.

Ukraine, native motherland, Lord, our heavenly father: bless us!
Going to destroy the enemies of my native land. Murderers of my brothers, rapists of my loved ones.
Let my hand be strong - to kill enemies!
Let my eye be clear - to kill enemies!
May my weapon be in good working order - to kill enemies!
Let my will be steel - to kill enemies!
Ukraine, native land-mother, Lord, our heavenly father: bless our resolute offensive.
Our holy victory.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

I see good old Lindsey Graham is in Ukraine running his mouth and embarrassing us. The Russians have issued an arrest warrant for him. I wish them luck.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

Is there a reward?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 6:06 pm Is there a reward?
Just the look on his face.
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Chraolic
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Chraolic »

Daehawk wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 10:42 am I see good old Lindsey Graham is in Ukraine running his mouth and embarrassing us.
Expressing support for Ukraine is embarassing you? Which side are you on?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Carpet_pissr »

“Here’s an offer to my Russian ‘friends’ who want to arrest and try me for calling out the [President Vladimir] Putin regime as being war criminals: I will submit to jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court if you do,” Graham said Monday.
“Come and make your best case. See you in The Hague!”

The problem is that he’s become such a sniveling, tricksy little weasel that we can’t trust that this is his real sentiment. At best this is simple ‘tough guy’ posturing which he’s prone to do every so often so that he gets quotes in the news (relevance!).

He’s way past redemption at this point, no matter what he says.

He is a warm dog turd.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Russia says drones lightly damage Moscow buildings before dawn, while Ukraine’s capital bombarded
A rare drone attack jolted Moscow early Tuesday, causing only light damage but forcing evacuations as residential buildings were struck in the Russian capital for the first time in the war against Ukraine. The Kremlin, meanwhile, pursued its relentless bombardment of Kyiv with a third assault on the city in 24 hours.

The Russian Defense Ministry said five drones were shot down in Moscow and the systems of three others were jammed, causing them to veer off course. It called the incident a “terrorist attack” by the “Kyiv regime.”

The attack, causing only what Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin called “insignificant damage” to several buildings, brought the war home to civilians in Russia’s capital.
Now, I'm not saying this was a Russian false-flag operation, but it wouldn't be the first time Putin ordered some Russian apartment buildings blown up. :coffee:
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Exodor »

Max Peck wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 9:26 am Russian apartment buildings blown up. slightly charred.
Image

Much like the previous "attack" on the Kremlin this doesn't really look like a military operation.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Blinken is stealing my old joke...

Anthony Blinken wrote:The Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world. And many believed it.

Today, many see Russia's military as the second strongest in Ukraine.
Enlarge Image

...which I'm pretty sure I stole from some long-forgotten random hero on Twitter. :coffee:
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