(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:28 am

I am so pissed. I just had a long post almost finished and pressed the back button and lost it.

Anyway, I will try to recreate it the best I can.

Going through my recent PM’s and the posts here in the forum, everyone has (except for Remus) has mentioned 2 people who they suspect as wolves. Short list:

Remus – bb2112, ?
RMC – Qantaga, Remus
Theohall – Qantaga, bb2112
Qantaga – RMC, Theohall
Bb2112 – Remus, Theohall

I will post more thoughts later this morning.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:43 am

Now I will put together the reasons mentioned.

If I am wrongly stating what I think you said, please follow up with another post and correct me. I am not trying to misstate anyone’s position, I am just trying to generate some analysis and thought in a game that is starting to stall going into the weekend.

bb2112
Remus – One of the Unagi 3.
Theohall – One of the Unagi 3.

I have a hard time fighting against this logic. I prescribed to it myself with NC and Austin. However, I am not a wolf, so when presented with the facts, I have to look elsewhere. If we had more misses in the game, I might even suggest killing me because it would get rid of a distraction, but we don’t. WE HAVE TO NAIL A WOLF TODAY, or we lose.

Qantaga
RMC – Of the people that are left, Q and Remus are the only two with enough experience and ability to nail Unagi right after the Unagi 3 sent their messages.
Theohall – bb2112 is most likely a wolf. Q defended him and placed the last two kill votes on villagers.

With Theo, I think Q is raising his ire more by association with me more than anything else. Q was on Lassr from the beginning. He didn’t let up. He also has posted some interesting ideas about people here. Were they all right, no, but he has not been afraid to put his opinions down on record and he was dead on about Lassr. Also, Unagi and I had shared some PM’s back and forth about Q. He thought Q was innocent and he is a pretty damn good player. He even suggested we bring Q into the circle with the other Unagi 3, but I told him we should keep him out even though I trust him. I wanted to keep the circle as small as possible. I don’t think the PM has rolled off yet, so if anyone would like me to produce it, I can.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:43 am

Theohall
Qantaga – Of the three groupings of the Unagi 3’s PM’s, and of those of us that are left, there were 1. Theohall 2. RMC and Remus 3. Qantaga. If we go with NC’s theory, Qantaga is not going to vote for himself. That means Theohall has to be a wolf, and either Remus or RMC.
bb2112 – I keep flipping back and forth on Theo. One minute I think he is good, the next, not so much. For me it probably more a default vote because I don’t really think anyone else is evil (besides Remus). That and the fact that he is unwilling to even consider that maybe NC might have been right. He has frustrated me with this in the past when he was evil.

RMC
Qantaga – Back to the Unagi 3 and the groupings. In group 2 there are RMC and Remus. That, and RMC posted a weird post yesterday saying he thinks Austin is evil, therefore he votes bb2112. This struck Q as odd. Sort of like he is setting things up for bb2112 and Austin on both days to cause the game to end.

I took the email as more frustration than anything else. Also, if his intent was to push for both Austin and I, he would probably be pushing harder for me today. He isn’t. He is trying to look outside the box at all the facts. Which is one of the reasons I keep coming back to, he is probably good. Next, Q and Remus have been sharing PM’s, but I am not privy to that information, so the only other thing I can conclude is Remus has been brain washing him. Remus is good at it.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:44 am

Remus West
RMC – Remus is the other person that is experienced enough, and has the ability to maybe go after Unagi after the PM’s were sent. Also, looking at the groupings, it makes sense, since he was paired with Remus.
bb2112 – I think Remus for a lot of reasons. Looking at the pairings, it is either him or RMC. I still think RMC and Q good, so logically that would leave Theo and Remus. Remus is also good enough to pick Unagi after the PM’s went out. He also disappears when he starts getting a little heat. Invariably someone else will say something and everyone will get after that person letting Remus off the hook for the day. He has disappeared a lot this game. We all have watched him hang back with votes on villagers so he wouldn’t be the kill vote. He has done that now several times when evil. When good he doesn’t hang back, he just votes. He also is usually a lot more vocal about killing bad guys. He has played a pretty sedate game. Unless there are a whole bunch of PM’s from him to all of you, I’m not seeing it. And the last thing, if he is good, why is he still alive? Really, you have to ask yourself, if you were a wolf, who would you rather kill, Mr. Bubbles or Remus? Remus is EVIL!!!

Ok, that is all I’ve got. Hopefully this will spark a little discussion.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 10:03 am

I have been wading through the thread and PMs.

I have some thoughts (and a few questions), but I only have access through my phone this morning. I'll post more when I can get to a computer (hopefully, early afternoon).

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 1:08 pm

Stream of conciousness:

1. Yes, the odds favor Unagi Betrayed over Unagi Deduced. However, we're all experienced enough to know that the longer odds are often the ones that turn up true at the end of these games. I feel as if the wolves are walking us down a very easy "it must be {Newcastle, Austin, bb}" path. Look at where the path has taken us so far. Yes, the "obvious" path says bb must be a wolf who betrayed Unagi, but how many of these games take the "obvious" path?

2. This whole notion that "only Remus and Q could have possibly deduced Unagi" strikes me as one great, big smoke screen. theo and RMC have been playing these games for a long time. theo was (is still?) an incredibly skilled SMAC/X player. The notion that he couldn't deduce Unagi is laughable. RMC has also shown prowess at this game (anyone remember mini-Scoop?) and I have no doubt that he could detect Unagi, as well. This whole idea reads like iocane. Plus, let's not forget that it was likely that the wolves got their PMs from different sources (Austin, Newcastle, bb). The only tandem left that would have gotten PMs from the same source is Remus/RMC. The wolves would have known immediately that the real seer was hiding behind the messengers. So, even if the wolves did not deduce Unagi directly, they still could have just gotten lucky when they went seer hunting.

(This is copied and pasted from a PM I sent earlier):
3. Look at the spread of votes on Day 4. It was almost a given that bb and Austin would be voting for each other. So, what did RMC and theo do? They spread the votes to put both of Austin and bb at two votes. An ideal situation for the wolves. It indicated that the only possible lynches would be bb or Austin to keep people from considering Scenario 2 (Unagi detected). It also put them in an ideal situation (if they are both wolves) for either of them to switch over to the kill vote if Remus, Bubbles (unlikely since he was gone), or I put a vote on either bb or Austin. theo was publicly fully committed to Austin the entire game, so he would have had to be the one to place the vote on Austin, but look what RMC did, he put a vote on bb because he thought bb being a wolf was unlikely. I've seen a lot of reasons to cast votes in these games, but never an "I'm always wrong, so I'll vote against what I think" vote. RMC eventually moved over to bb as the deadline got closer, but also said:

RMC wrote:I could go back to BB, if you prefer. I think one of them is a wolf, and not sure which one. BB and Theo made a good case, so I switched... I hope it was the right switch..

That doesn't look as much like true searching for a wolf as it does leaving one's options open.

The entire scenario strikes me as wolves positioning themselves early, so as not to be seen as piling on later.

4. theo - theo dug into Austin early and hung on tight until Austin died. That's pretty standard behaviour. However, this is what struck me as odd:

- Good theo had done the same exact thing last game, to the detriment of the village. The odd part is that I would think a good theo in this game would have learned from his previous mistake and gone about things differently. It's like evil theo thought that he would do the same thing all over again, just to hide behind, "that's just theo."

- Here's the second odd part. On Day 2, I pointed out this very thing:

Qantaga wrote:
- theohall - theo is moving up my list with a bullet. Last game, his single-mindedness (blindness to any other possibilities) proved spectacularly wrong. theo is a smart enough guy that I would expect him to re-evaluate that approach and become at least slightly more open-minded if he were a villager this game. His same damn the torpedoes approach this game strikes me more as a wolf hiding behind "consistency," than a villager searching for truth.

I was then taken aback by his response. Here, look:

theohall wrote:You make a good point, Q.

I will re-evaluate.

That's a fairly unusual response from theo, so I was hopeful that he may actually be a villager who was re-evaluating. However, that re-evaluation did not last. And, not only did he continue to forcefully trumpet Austin as evil, his responses to those of us that tried to suggest reasons Austin might be good were not exactly those of someone interested in finding the truth. Go back and take a look.

The strangest part of all, though, was his reasoning that Austin was evil because "two experienced players called it a wolf play on Day 1."

I would have expected a good theo to have changed his tactics from last game and demonstrated a much more open mind than this theo. Yes, I know, theo has a reputation for being a bulldog, but I would expect even a bulldog to adapt, if he had the interests of the village at heart.

5. Remus - Remus and I have been in contact by PM for most of the game. I *want* Remus to be good. Otherwise, I become Lassr to Remus' Austn. However, I realize that Remus is adept enough to easily brainwash me. There have been moments (and I told him so) where I have felt Remus was manipulating me. There is one particular item that is bugging me now, but I'm trying to determine how much it bugs me.

6. bb - bb is a very skilled player. In one of Lassr's BSG games, bb planted mis-information throughout the thread that hid his identity as Starbuck while we (Grund included) searched fruitlessly to find him. bb could very well be a wolf, but on Tuesday, when I went through the game trying to decide between Austin and bb, I found Austin more evil-looking than I did bb. As I mentioned earlier, the very fact that Unagi Betrayed is more logical than Unagi Detected is making me cringe. Especially after Newcastle and Austin turned up good.

One other factor is that Unagi trusted bb. I know Unagi could have been wrong about bb. However, it looks like Unagi and bb exchanged more PMs that Unagi did with Newcastle or Austin. I would think that, if bb had raised any alarms for Unagi along the way, that he would have sent a note to Newcastle or Austin to be wary of bb, if Unagi died, but that did not happen. I realize Unagi could have guessed wrong about bb, but his instincts were pretty good otherwise and I have to weigh that accordingly.

Also, looking back at the PM responses to Austin (now that we know for certain that Austin is good) during his "I am the seer" ploy, bb's response seems much more genuine and innocent than any of {theo, RMC, Remus}.

I have more reasons why I'm leaning good on bb, but I want to think about them a bit longer. I still need to realistically evaluate if bb is the one brainwashing me.

7. RMC's lack of participation in the midst of a Day 1 consumed with Austin's "seer" play stands out like a sore thumb. Plus, there's that little interaction between RMC, Lassr, and theo that seemed more scripted than genuine.

The theo/RMC vote spread on Day 4 also bugs me to no end.

8. My current threat list hinges more on wolf teams than individuals (in no particular order):

- theo/Remus
- theo/RMC
- bb/RMC

Remus/RMC seems unlikely (but still possible) based on the fact that they both would have gotten PMs from Austin.
Remus/bb also seems unlikely, unless they are doing a masterful job of pointing at each other.
bb/theo is less likely, but something I'm still considering.

I'm still trying to work things through. I'm especially trying to decide if I'm on to something with theo or if I'm just irritated by the way he constantly badgered me each time I tried to offer reasons that Austin might be good.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 9:27 am

Day 5 Vote Count

Voting history

Spoiler:

Majority is 3.

No Votes (5): bb2112, Remus, theohall, RMC, Qantaga

Deadline is Monday, July 16 at 8pm Central Time.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 7:37 pm

I hope everyone is investigating.

It looks like we're heading for another dance with the deadline.

I know theo said he would be out until tomorrow and it looks like Remus is out of town (from PMs from both Remus and bb). I will be leaving on vacation tomorrow morning, so my access will be spotty, but I'll be checking in as often as possible.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 8:30 pm

Qantaga wrote:I hope everyone is investigating.

It looks like we're heading for another dance with the deadline.

I know theo said he would be out until tomorrow and it looks like Remus is out of town (from PMs from both Remus and bb). I will be leaving on vacation tomorrow morning, so my access will be spotty, but I'll be checking in as often as possible.

I'm at my sister's. My eldest niece's birthday is tomorrow. I have and will be checking in periodically but my opportunities to research and reread have been next to nothing.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:21 am

I posted a huge wall of text hoping it would jar some conversation. Q at least responded with his own thoughts. Other than that, nothing. Based on prior PM's and posts, I believe everyone knows where we all stand, and it doesn't seem like the stalemate is going to be broken. We are at about the 12 hour mark before we miss out on a lynch and then automatically lose.

So based on this, I will be the first to put my toe in the water. I am pretty sure Q is not a wolf, that means I have a 2/3 chance of hitting one by voting blind. However, I don't think I am voting blind. I have repeatedly said who I think our final two are, so I am going to vote. Now if there is a dog pile, we lose. I'm sorry guys if I screw this up, but I think I'm right, so it is worth a chance.

Theohall

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:53 am

bb2112 wrote:I posted a huge wall of text hoping it would jar some conversation. Q at least responded with his own thoughts. Other than that, nothing. Based on prior PM's and posts, I believe everyone knows where we all stand, and it doesn't seem like the stalemate is going to be broken. We are at about the 12 hour mark before we miss out on a lynch and then automatically lose.

So based on this, I will be the first to put my toe in the water. I am pretty sure Q is not a wolf, that means I have a 2/3 chance of hitting one by voting blind. However, I don't think I am voting blind. I have repeatedly said who I think our final two are, so I am going to vote. Now if there is a dog pile, we lose. I'm sorry guys if I screw this up, but I think I'm right, so it is worth a chance.

Theohall

Theo seems like the least wolfy to me... Guess we get to see if you are right/wrong.. As the wolves, if you are not one or he is not one, just need to hop on this vote and win the game..

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:56 am

At least we've learned one thing so far.

RMC and I are not both wolves. Otherwise, the game would be over.

As soon as Remus checks in, we'll know whether or not RMC and Remus are the wolves.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:03 am

Qantaga wrote:At least we've learned one thing so far.

RMC and I are not both wolves. Otherwise, the game would be over.

As soon as Remus checks in, we'll know whether or not RMC and Remus are the wolves.

Ha! I am at least right that both Q and RMC are not wolves!

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:43 am

bb2112 wrote:
Qantaga wrote:At least we've learned one thing so far.

RMC and I are not both wolves. Otherwise, the game would be over.

As soon as Remus checks in, we'll know whether or not RMC and Remus are the wolves.
Ha! I am at least right that both Q and RMC are not wolves!

Which might mean you are a wolf...Mr. BB...

Or it could be Q waiting for his wolfy friend to come and PM him, so they can pile on together...

<sigh> the last days are so much fun in these games...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:48 am

I have already checked in with Qantaga via PM.

Looks like I now have 2 50/50s to choose from:
theo/bb2112
Qantaga/RMC

I think we know where my suspicions lay for both of those cases.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:49 am

Remus contacted me by PM to say that he is not going to vote on theo.

Unless that is a calculated play by him to buy some time for both he and RMC to get to the thread together, it would seem that we've learned quite a lot:

- There is at least one wolf in {bb, theo}
- There is at most one wolf in {Remus, RMC, Q}
- RMC and Q are not both on the wolf team
- Remus and Q are not both on the wolf team
- Remus and RMC are not both on the wolf team (unless this is a stalling tactic by Remus to wait for RMC to get here - in which case, why would he PM me, instead of PMing RMC?)

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:49 am

Cross-posted with Remus.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:22 am

I am here and not a wolf...

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 12:17 pm

bb2112 wrote:I posted a huge wall of text hoping it would jar some conversation. Q at least responded with his own thoughts. Other than that, nothing. Based on prior PM's and posts, I believe everyone knows where we all stand, and it doesn't seem like the stalemate is going to be broken. We are at about the 12 hour mark before we miss out on a lynch and then automatically lose.

So based on this, I will be the first to put my toe in the water. I am pretty sure Q is not a wolf, that means I have a 2/3 chance of hitting one by voting blind. However, I don't think I am voting blind. I have repeatedly said who I think our final two are, so I am going to vote. Now if there is a dog pile, we lose. I'm sorry guys if I screw this up, but I think I'm right, so it is worth a chance.

Theohall

And this - with bb2112 and Q agreeing almost from the get-to today - makes me believe bb2112 and Qantaga are the two remaining wolves.

bb2112

I know I am a villager. Been working blind the entire time. bb2112 and Qantaga have played us for fools from the time Unagi threw caution to the wind with his private PMs.

As to bb2112's wall of text - I had done my analysis. I have re-read. My opinion has not changed from the beginning of today.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 12:18 pm

bb2112 wrote:
Qantaga wrote:At least we've learned one thing so far.

RMC and I are not both wolves. Otherwise, the game would be over.

As soon as Remus checks in, we'll know whether or not RMC and Remus are the wolves.
Ha! I am at least right that both Q and RMC are not wolves!

Knowing I am not a wolf, it means YOU and Remus West are wolves, if that is your brilliant deduction.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 12:40 pm

I should point out...

1) bb2112 voted for me.
2) Everyone has posted.
3) There were not two more votes (the wolves) piling on to kill me. Why? (I know I am a villager)

This indicates to me that bb2112 is most definitely a wolf. Of course, the argument could be made I am wolf, but I find it more telling that NO ONE voted for me. It is almost like bb2112 was hoping his discourse would work, one villager would agree, and his partner could jump in for the kill and the win.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 1:08 pm

theohall wrote:I should point out...

1) bb2112 voted for me.
2) Everyone has posted.
3) There were not two more votes (the wolves) piling on to kill me. Why? (I know I am a villager)

This indicates to me that bb2112 is most definitely a wolf. Of course, the argument could be made I am wolf, but I find it more telling that NO ONE voted for me. It is almost like bb2112 was hoping his discourse would work, one villager would agree, and his partner could jump in for the kill and the win.

Actually, this is exactly what I thought (and hoped) would happen. If two people would have jumped in after me to vote Theo, then the game would be over. Since nobody did, this means logically that either Theo or myself is a wolf. I have to believe that if neither one of us was a wolf, then the game would be over at this point.

And of course I would expect Theo to vote for me, because at this point, he is caught. What else is he going to do?

So now what?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 1:38 pm

Day 5 Vote Count

Voting history

Spoiler:

Majority is 3.

Against theohall (1): bb2112
Against bb2112 (1): theohall

No Votes (3): Remus, RMC, Qantaga

Deadline is Monday, July 16 at 8pm Central Time.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 1:44 pm

bb2112 wrote:
theohall wrote:I should point out...

1) bb2112 voted for me.
2) Everyone has posted.
3) There were not two more votes (the wolves) piling on to kill me. Why? (I know I am a villager)

This indicates to me that bb2112 is most definitely a wolf. Of course, the argument could be made I am wolf, but I find it more telling that NO ONE voted for me. It is almost like bb2112 was hoping his discourse would work, one villager would agree, and his partner could jump in for the kill and the win.
Actually, this is exactly what I thought (and hoped) would happen. If two people would have jumped in after me to vote Theo, then the game would be over. Since nobody did, this means logically that either Theo or myself is a wolf. I have to believe that if neither one of us was a wolf, then the game would be over at this point.

And of course I would expect Theo to vote for me, because at this point, he is caught. What else is he going to do?

So now what?

You caught yourself, furball.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:14 pm

Well unless you are both wolves, then this game should be over...

The two wolves, just need to both vote for either Theo or BB, whichever is not a wolf...

But what if both were wolves? But that makes no sense... <sigh> Unless they want us to kill one of them...And then thereby 'confirming' the other one... GAH!

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:44 pm

RMC wrote:Well unless you are both wolves, then this game should be over...

The two wolves, just need to both vote for either Theo or BB, whichever is not a wolf...

But what if both were wolves? But that makes no sense... <sigh> Unless they want us to kill one of them...And then thereby 'confirming' the other one... GAH!

1. If I were a wolf, I would not have made this play. I would have sat back hoping someone would step forward and make a mistake and then I could jump on it. Putting myself forward only causes everyone to scrutinize me even more than they already have.
2. I felt pretty sure of my play. I go back to the three groupings. If I believe Q, and I do, then that leaves RMC and Remus on one island, and Theo on the other. Therefore Theo has to be it. This is why I didn't jump on Remus even though I am pretty sure he is the other wolf. Because of the slight doubt that it is RMC instead.
3. I would rather force this issue now instead of at the last minute. Now, at least we all have a little time to talk about it. I am afraid if it came down to the last minute, the village would make the wrong decision. As I said, it seems like everyone is pretty ground in with their beliefs and were just sitting on their hands over the weekend.
4. Eenie, meenie, miney moe, catch a wolf be the tail. Watch Theo holler, are you going to let him go?

For the first time this game since Unagi bought it, I'm feeling good about this. This game would be over by now otherwise. You guys PM, post in the main thread, do what you need to do, but at the end of the day, if we are going to have any hope of winning this thing, you need to place your vote on Theo.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:55 pm

bb2112 wrote:
RMC wrote:Well unless you are both wolves, then this game should be over...

The two wolves, just need to both vote for either Theo or BB, whichever is not a wolf...

But what if both were wolves? But that makes no sense... <sigh> Unless they want us to kill one of them...And then thereby 'confirming' the other one... GAH!
1. If I were a wolf, I would not have made this play. I would have sat back hoping someone would step forward and make a mistake and then I could jump on it. Putting myself forward only causes everyone to scrutinize me even more than they already have.
2. I felt pretty sure of my play. I go back to the three groupings. If I believe Q, and I do, then that leaves RMC and Remus on one island, and Theo on the other. Therefore Theo has to be it. This is why I didn't jump on Remus even though I am pretty sure he is the other wolf. Because of the slight doubt that it is RMC instead.
3. I would rather force this issue now instead of at the last minute. Now, at least we all have a little time to talk about it. I am afraid if it came down to the last minute, the village would make the wrong decision. As I said, it seems like everyone is pretty ground in with their beliefs and were just sitting on their hands over the weekend.
4. Eenie, meenie, miney moe, catch a wolf be the tail. Watch Theo holler, are you going to let him go?

For the first time this game since Unagi bought it, I'm feeling good about this. This game would be over by now otherwise. You guys PM, post in the main thread, do what you need to do, but at the end of the day, if we are going to have any hope of winning this thing, you need to place your vote on Theo.

And the furball bb2112 continues to be as convincing as he has been the whole game. He is a wolf or he would be dead already. The other wolf did not vote for him and he just waited to see if I, as a villager, would jump at his bait. His vote on me was hoping to draw out a villager and failed. Good on you other two villagers for waiting. bb2112 needs to die.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 4:13 pm

theohall wrote: And the furball bb2112 continues to be as convincing as he has been the whole game. He is a wolf or he would be dead already.

You lost me here. If I was a wolf, I would be dead already? That doesn't make sense. Maybe you were trying to day, if I wasn't a wolf, I would be dead already. But that doesn't make sense either. I was one of the Unagi three, I am a great distraction. Why would a wolf kill me? A better question is why didn't he kill Remus or Q.

theohall wrote: The other wolf did not vote for him and he just waited to see if I, as a villager, would jump at his bait. His vote on me was hoping to draw out a villager and failed. Good on you other two villagers for waiting. bb2112 needs to die.

Again, this doesn't make sense. My vote on you was to draw out a villager? If I was a wolf, then wouldn't I already know if you were a villager? If I was a villager, and you were a villager, wouldn't the wolves have already pounced? Who exactly am I trying to draw out?

Theo, the sheer fact that you are not dead yet, and the game is not over, is pretty good proof that I guessed right and you are wolf. I have no idea what you are trying to say here, but I don't think it bolsters your cause.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 4:19 pm

Your vote, as a bb2112-wolf, on me was to get a villager to vote for me so your partner wolf could pounce. It's perfectly clear to me. I understand you trying to confuse the issue, because that is what a wolf should do.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 4:27 pm

theohall wrote:Your vote, as a bb2112-wolf, on me was to get a villager to vote for me so your partner wolf could pounce. It's perfectly clear to me. I understand you trying to confuse the issue, because that is what a wolf should do.

Ah, now I understand better. Believe me, I am sure a villager was not going to jump on that vote simply because I made it. I was more worried about 2 wolves jumping on it than a villager. Everyone has been very cautious on this last day. My vote was made with a lot of forethought and angst. I was worrying that I might be losing the game for the villagers, but now I'm kind of giddy with the fact that it didn't happen. So, no matter how this day goes, I will consider it a small personal victory that I nailed another wolf in you. Everyone will know the truth of your wolfiness soon enough.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 4:32 pm

bb2112 wrote:
theohall wrote:Your vote, as a bb2112-wolf, on me was to get a villager to vote for me so your partner wolf could pounce. It's perfectly clear to me. I understand you trying to confuse the issue, because that is what a wolf should do.
Ah, now I understand better. Believe me, I am sure a villager was not going to jump on that vote simply because I made it. I was more worried about 2 wolves jumping on it than a villager. Everyone has been very cautious on this last day. My vote was made with a lot of forethought and angst. I was worrying that I might be losing the game for the villagers, but now I'm kind of giddy with the fact that it didn't happen. So, no matter how this day goes, I will consider it a small personal victory that I nailed another wolf in you. Everyone will know the truth of your wolfiness soon enough.

Yes, you caught a villager, bb2112. Enjoy dooming our village.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 5:44 pm

We're closing in on the witching hour.

Here are the possible wolf pairs, as I see it:

- {Remus/theo}
- {Remus/RMC}*
- {Remus/bb}**
- {theo/RMC}
- {theo/bb}***
- {{RMC/bb}

* {Remus/RMC} was ruled out this morning when Remus and RMC did not kill theo.
** {Remus/bb} also seems unlikely. I have been in constant contact with both of them by PM for most of the game. They have been relentless in their accusations of each other ever since Unagi's death. If they are both wolves, they have used me as their pawn and I will be very put out.
*** {bb/theo} seems highly unlikely, unless they decided to set this up to get one of them lynched in hopes of winning tomorrow by the other gaining credibility, which seems very counter-intuitive to trying to win a game.

With the game on the line, I'm trying my best to unravel this particular knot.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 5:56 pm

3 hours. I sure hope you guys are talking in PM's.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:43 pm

Well with only 1 hour 20 minutes left... I think I need to cast my vote, as I have to put kids to bed, etc...

But why is no one else here? Q - So who are you thinking of voting for?

I think we need to find a wolf now, then we can argue who is the second wolf?

Are we going to vote for either BB or Theo, or does someone think neither Theo or BB is a wolf?

I think I am going to vote BB... But I am going to give it 20 minutes to think it over..

My basic thought is still..One of the three had to be a wolf... And BB has to be that third, since the other two were not wolves.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:46 pm

bb2112

I can not see it being theohall.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:56 pm

Remus West wrote: bb2112

I can not see it being theohall.

Well neither can I... So that leaves you as the second wolf...But if you would vote for BB... Damn it!

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:01 pm

RMC wrote:
Remus West wrote: bb2112

I can not see it being theohall.
Well neither can I... So that leaves you as the second wolf...But if you would vote for BB... Damn it!

But let's follow my logic through... I say I am leaning towards voting for BB.. Then Remus jumps on and votes for BB... If indeed BB and Remus are the two wolves... One of Q's possibilities, I might add even if he says it is unlikely,. Then putting his vote on BB lends himself some credibility in the next day... Hmm...

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:02 pm

Oh what the hell for better or worse:

BB2112

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:08 pm

I was just posting what else we had learned by RMC not voting on bb2112.

That post is now moot.

Here's hoping...

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:08 pm

Qantaga wrote:We're closing in on the witching hour.

Here are the possible wolf pairs, as I see it:

- {Remus/theo}
- {Remus/RMC}*
- {Remus/bb}**
- {theo/RMC}
- {theo/bb}***
- {{RMC/bb}

* {Remus/RMC} was ruled out this morning when Remus and RMC did not kill theo.
** {Remus/bb} also seems unlikely. I have been in constant contact with both of them by PM for most of the game. They have been relentless in their accusations of each other ever since Unagi's death. If they are both wolves, they have used me as their pawn and I will be very put out.
*** {bb/theo} seems highly unlikely, unless they decided to set this up to get one of them lynched in hopes of winning tomorrow by the other gaining credibility, which seems very counter-intuitive to trying to win a game.

With the game on the line, I'm trying my best to unravel this particular knot.

While the voting is now done:

These are three other possibilites:

{bb2112/Qantaga}
{Qantaga/Remus West}
{Qantaga/RMC}

Since Q left himself out, thought I would throw those out there before night fall hits.