Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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Holman
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Holman »

My friend at RAND (or something RAND-like) spent years learning Farsi just before it looked like the nuclear deal and other softening factors might make it less crucial.

I suppose he might be getting a raise this year.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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My local butt lickers had nothing but praise for Trump. You can bet $1 million that if it was a Dem president they'd be frothing at the mouth to put them in front of a firing squad. I hate them all. Morons.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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"I have not been a Trump supporter in the past but now I will be..."

Iranian-american [wo]man-on-the-street interviewed by local ABC affiliate here.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Drazzil »

OMG WTH are we doing in Iraq blowing up foreign generals!?
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:28 pm OMG WTH are we doing in Iraq blowing up foreign generals!?
Revving up that military-industrial complex. Plus all that Homeland security action.

We had to do it because possible attacks. Now there are more possible attacks so...ready to give up some freedoms?
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Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Isgrimnur »

Now Brian can take nudist flights to his nudist cruises.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by coopasonic »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:03 pm "I have not been a Trump supporter in the past but now I will be..."

Iranian-american [wo]man-on-the-street interviewed by local ABC affiliate here.
"I have mixed feelings about his death, but mostly worry for my friends and family back home. This will be bad for them or worse for them"

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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Smoove_B »

Feels like it was just yesterday the administration was telling us the strike against Suleimani was done to de-escalate planned violence. Another air strike should really super de-escalate things.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by malchior »

You can't stop war without a lot of not war.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Holman »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:01 pm Feels like it was just yesterday the administration was telling us the strike against Suleimani was done to de-escalate planned violence.
FAKE NEWS!!

That was today.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Smoove_B »

It's apparently been a very, very, very long day. :D or :?
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by malchior »

Very cool. Very normal.

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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Kraken »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:28 pm OMG WTH are we doing in Iraq blowing up foreign generals!?
The impeachment noose has been tightening and that Senate acquittal is looking a little less like a slam-dunk as new evidence keeps mounting up. Time for some different headlines, and ideally some frenzied flag-waving.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by GungHo »

What stretching exercises are the GOP recommending in preparation for rationalizing that sending 3k troops to the Middle East is, in fact, 'bringing the troops home'?

Serious (rhetorical) question, does he have a plan? Like, at all, for anything? Does he even know what he's doing for breakfast in the morning? How the hell did we elect this moron? (Again, rhetorical...😕)
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Alefroth »

Wonder how Gabbard likes Trump now.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Holman »

Good thread here:



tl;dr: Sources say there's precious little evidence that any specific attack was coming. Trump pivoted to assassinating S. in a knee-jerk reaction to the embassy mob.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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You know I believe that and I'm okay with that. Iran has been harassing us long enough.
But of course Iran has to get all macho now and start attacking us more regularly.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by malchior »

dbt1949 wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:28 am You know I believe that and I'm okay with that. Iran has been harassing us long enough.
But of course Iran has to get all macho now and start attacking us more regularly.
I wonder what has happened over the last few years to make them all 'macho' and uppity?
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Kraken »

Two things are true: Suleimani has been behind a lot of mischief in the region, is responsible for hundreds of American deaths over the years, and would surely have continued merrily along that path; and, assassinating a rival government official is an act of war. For those who take a transactional view of foreign policy, the big question is how many more deaths will be caused by his murder.

One other thing is PROBABLY true (if unprovable): Trump is winging it, and he has no new Iran policy after "kick the hornet's nest and see what happens." He is only concerned with how it affects his reelection chances.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Holman »

At least we can count on cool heads being in charge.



He's going to name the strikes, isn't he? One for each hostage?

Because it's important that our current military policy be guided by events of... forty years ago.
Last edited by Holman on Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by gameoverman »

Kraken wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:48 pm Two things are true: Suleimani has been behind a lot of mischief in the region, is responsible for hundreds of American deaths over the years, and would surely have continued merrily along that path; and, assassinating a rival government official is an act of war. For those who take a transactional view of foreign policy, the big question is how many more deaths will be caused by his murder.

One other thing is PROBABLY true (if unprovable): Trump is winging it, and he has no new Iran policy after "kick the hornet's nest and see what happens." He is only concerned with how it affects his reelection chances.
Trump got elected by saying what his crowd wanted to hear. "Build a wall" etc. His base expects him to follow through. Tough talk was also part of his populist appeal. His supporters are the type who believe missiles and bombs solve any problem and we should use them. That's why I believe he did this, it is a hardcore move. Whether you approve of it or not, you have to admit he delivered a smack to the face of Iran.

Can/will Iran do anything notable about it? That's what has me in suspense. If Iran can punch us hard in the face then this will hurt Trump. If they can't deliver on their threats then Trump will come out looking like a hero. So those of us who'd like to see someone else elected are essentially stuck hoping Iran can make him pay, which means hurting our country, which is an odd thing to be rooting for.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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malchior wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:11 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:28 am You know I believe that and I'm okay with that. Iran has been harassing us long enough.
But of course Iran has to get all macho now and start attacking us more regularly.
I wonder what has happened over the last few years to make them all 'macho' and uppity?
It started with the fall of the Shaw.
And don't get all smug and "Uppity" with me.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by gbasden »

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:00 pm
Zarathud wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:42 pm No question. We are now the baddies.

Assassinating foreign leaders takes us down a path that will be filled with unintended consequences.
I get what you’re saying, but this is wrong on many levels.

Suleimani was a very bad actor, responsible for many terrorist attacks including the recent attack on a U.S. base in Iraq that killed an American contractor and injured others.

...

But that doesn’t make us “the baddies.”
I'd say it very much depends on your point of view. From the perspective of people in the middle east that have seen families and children ripped apart by similar drone strikes, I doub't they are somehow going to see us as the good guys. Also, he was the equivalent of a cabinet minister. It's one thing to get someone from Al-Queda, and entirely another to kill a governmental minister in cold blood. Are we ok with other governments assassinating our people? If nothing else, it's a significant escalation and provocation.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:04 pm At least we can count on cool heads being in charge.



He's going to name the strikes, isn't he? One for each hostage?

Because it's important that our current military policy be guided by events of... forty years ago.
I'm a little concerned by the reference to sites important "to Iranian culture". I wish I had more faith that Trump wouldn't order a missile strike on some ancient mosque.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Kraken »

gameoverman wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:07 pm
Kraken wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:48 pm Two things are true: Suleimani has been behind a lot of mischief in the region, is responsible for hundreds of American deaths over the years, and would surely have continued merrily along that path; and, assassinating a rival government official is an act of war. For those who take a transactional view of foreign policy, the big question is how many more deaths will be caused by his murder.

One other thing is PROBABLY true (if unprovable): Trump is winging it, and he has no new Iran policy after "kick the hornet's nest and see what happens." He is only concerned with how it affects his reelection chances.
Trump got elected by saying what his crowd wanted to hear. "Build a wall" etc. His base expects him to follow through. Tough talk was also part of his populist appeal. His supporters are the type who believe missiles and bombs solve any problem and we should use them. That's why I believe he did this, it is a hardcore move. Whether you approve of it or not, you have to admit he delivered a smack to the face of Iran.

Can/will Iran do anything notable about it? That's what has me in suspense. If Iran can punch us hard in the face then this will hurt Trump. If they can't deliver on their threats then Trump will come out looking like a hero. So those of us who'd like to see someone else elected are essentially stuck hoping Iran can make him pay, which means hurting our country, which is an odd thing to be rooting for.
He also got elected by renouncing entanglements in the Middle East, so that could come back and bite him if the Iranians can rope-a-dope.

Iran will strike through proxies. They can't confront US forces directly, or take out soft targets too obviously. I know what you mean, though: I keep catching myself siding with Iran, because Trump is the greater danger to the US. :grund:
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by YellowKing »

My problem is that even if Trump and his advisors were completely 100% correct in pulling this stunt, and did save countless American lives through this action, there's not a chance in hell I'd believe it. He has completely and utterly shredded any chance of me believing that anything he does is in the interest of the country and not of his bank account.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:37 pmI'm a little concerned by the reference to sites important "to Iranian culture". I wish I had more faith that Trump wouldn't order a missile strike on some ancient mosque.
Totally normal for the President of the United States to threaten non-military, culturally important sites of a sovereign nation for destruction. Totally. Normal.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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YellowKing wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:24 pm My problem is that even if Trump and his advisors were completely 100% correct in pulling this stunt, and did save countless American lives through this action, there's not a chance in hell I'd believe it. He has completely and utterly shredded any chance of me believing that anything he does is in the interest of the country and not of his bank account.
They needn't be countless. One source said that 604 American deaths over the past 2-3 decades can be pinned on Suleimani. Maybe he could have killed 600 more over the rest of his life? So, let's see how many Americans die in conflict with Iran and its proxies during the rest of Trump's reign and its aftermath. I fear that it will be more than 600.

But body counts aren't how war works anymore. Trump has already put Iran's economy in the crapper; Iran has nothing to lose from a global recession. A sharp spike in oil prices would hit Trump (and us) where it hurts, and they've already showed an affinity for attacking oil. Their immediate retribution needs to involve either taking out a high-ranking American or notching a high body count, but after that symbolic counterattack, it's going to be about oil.

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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:13 am
YellowKing wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:24 pm My problem is that even if Trump and his advisors were completely 100% correct in pulling this stunt, and did save countless American lives through this action, there's not a chance in hell I'd believe it. He has completely and utterly shredded any chance of me believing that anything he does is in the interest of the country and not of his bank account.
They needn't be countless. One source said that 604 American deaths over the past 2-3 decades can be pinned on Suleimani. Maybe he could have killed 600 more over the rest of his life? So, let's see how many Americans die in conflict with Iran and its proxies during the rest of Trump's reign and its aftermath. I fear that it will be more than 600.
This 600 number is all over conservative media. It is the tally of soldiers killed in Iraq by roadside bombs over a couple of year which they are now laying entirely at his feet. It is propaganda. We shouldn't buy into this bullshit. Again.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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malchior wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:51 am
Kraken wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:13 am
YellowKing wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:24 pm My problem is that even if Trump and his advisors were completely 100% correct in pulling this stunt, and did save countless American lives through this action, there's not a chance in hell I'd believe it. He has completely and utterly shredded any chance of me believing that anything he does is in the interest of the country and not of his bank account.
They needn't be countless. One source said that 604 American deaths over the past 2-3 decades can be pinned on Suleimani. Maybe he could have killed 600 more over the rest of his life? So, let's see how many Americans die in conflict with Iran and its proxies during the rest of Trump's reign and its aftermath. I fear that it will be more than 600.
This 600 number is all over conservative media. It is the tally of soldiers killed in Iraq by roadside bombs over a couple of year which they are now laying entirely at his feet. It is propaganda. We shouldn't buy into this bullshit. Again.
This is where I start to feel like we’re in an upside down world where people cannot even agree on things that are objectively true. It’s not propaganda that Suleimani was (1) a very bad actor, (2) an enemy of the United States, and (3) a clear and present danger to US interests. If people weren’t familiar with him and the IRGC and Quds before now, they haven’t been paying attention.

And this isn’t Fox News hyperbole:
Soleimani was the head of the Quds (or Jerusalem) Force, an ultra-elite group focused on overseas operations, such as developing and managing proxy militias, along with military intelligence work.

Through the Quds Force, Iran has cultivated Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, while also supporting groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In the late 1990s, Soleimani was given command of the unit.

The Trump administration has blamed the deaths of over 600 coalition soldiers in Iraq on Soleimani and the pro-Iran militias he formed and directed. As head of the Quds Force, Soleimani was also a key architect of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal attacks on anti-government protesters and rebels in the now nine-year war.

Soleimani . . . was both revered and reviled for having had a hand in so many of the attacks and wars that have shaped events and daily life in the Middle East in recent decades.
None of this is to say that I’m cheerleading this attack or that I’m at all confident in the decision making process that led us here. But I stand by my earlier position that taking out a guy like Suleimani - in and of itself - doesn’t make us the bad guys.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Kurth »

gameoverman wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:07 pmSo those of us who'd like to see someone else elected are essentially stuck hoping Iran can make him pay, which means hurting our country, which is an odd thing to be rooting for.
I don’t think you really mean that. If you did, “odd” wouldn’t be the word I’d use to describe that rooting interest.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Victoria Raverna »

Kurth wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:43 am And this isn’t Fox News hyperbole:
The Trump administration has blamed the deaths of over 600 coalition soldiers in Iraq on Soleimani and the pro-Iran militias he formed and directed.
So it isn't Fox News hyperbole, it is Trump administration's hyperbole.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:43 am
malchior wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:51 am
Kraken wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:13 am
YellowKing wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:24 pm My problem is that even if Trump and his advisors were completely 100% correct in pulling this stunt, and did save countless American lives through this action, there's not a chance in hell I'd believe it. He has completely and utterly shredded any chance of me believing that anything he does is in the interest of the country and not of his bank account.
They needn't be countless. One source said that 604 American deaths over the past 2-3 decades can be pinned on Suleimani. Maybe he could have killed 600 more over the rest of his life? So, let's see how many Americans die in conflict with Iran and its proxies during the rest of Trump's reign and its aftermath. I fear that it will be more than 600.
This 600 number is all over conservative media. It is the tally of soldiers killed in Iraq by roadside bombs over a couple of year which they are now laying entirely at his feet. It is propaganda. We shouldn't buy into this bullshit. Again.
This is where I start to feel like we’re in an upside down world where people cannot even agree on things that are objectively true. It’s not propaganda that Suleimani was (1) a very bad actor, (2) an enemy of the United States, and (3) a clear and present danger to US interests. If people weren’t familiar with him and the IRGC and Quds before now, they haven’t been paying attention.
Sure that is true. That also doesn't mean that whatever we do is 'good guy' behavior. However, what I actually was referring to was that the DOD does tons of bullshit studies like the one that came up with this 600 number. They aren't supposed to see the light of day until they kill someone. It is part of their war planning. They present options to the President and want to make sure they are backed up by some legal backing. Fine. I get it but they then push it out the door because they are counting on our collective blood lust for endless war. And they get that support *every time* no matter how unwise it is. That is what makes us bad guys. Many don't want to see it for what it is - that is all I'm saying. No one wants to admit they are the bad guy. And again I stress this wasn't a good guy but as much as we want it to be true we aren't the 'good guy with a gun taking out a bad guy'.
None of this is to say that I’m cheerleading this attack or that I’m at all confident in the decision making process that led us here. But I stand by my earlier position that taking out a guy like Suleimani - in and of itself - doesn’t make us the bad guys.
The decision making process when you use the power of the United States to kill someone isn't *paramount*? We killed the leader of another nation while he was in our 'ally's' country. Without so much as a heads up. It was incredibly unwise. More so it has to be seen in the context that this is definitely a descendant of the pet project to remake the mid-east. We broke the middle-east because we thought we could remake it in our image. Our 'very serious people' cheer-leaded that. And that makes us bad guys.

We always like to tell ourselves the lie that we are the force for moral good in the world. The now lie we tell our children. Instead, we drop fuel for the fire from the sky and then get outraged when the fire burns. For a long time it was tolerated because for a long time we *actually were* the moral good versus the Soviet Union. When they fell we turned to our own profit and empire and misused that power much the time instead of some of the time. Often in stupid counterproductive ways like this. That is what makes us bad guys. And I think we are near the end of the road on goodwill.

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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Holman »



Everything coming out about the planning and the preparation for this strike undermines the idea that S. was a “clear and present danger” who had to be stopped immediately.

This was just Trump reaching for the biggest stick and the biggest distraction. And his announced intention to strike non-military targets certainly sounds “baddie” enough for the rest of the world.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by $iljanus »

Holman wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:55 am

Everything coming out about the planning and the preparation for this strike undermines the idea that S. was a “clear and present danger” who had to be stopped immediately.

This was just Trump reaching for the biggest stick and the biggest distraction. And his announced intention to strike non-military targets certainly sounds “baddie” enough for the rest of the world.
Friendly advice for the future. When giving options to the Manchild in Chief make extra certain to leave “tactical limited nuclear strikes” off the table.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by hepcat »

He'll try to fabricate something. Just watch.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Blackhawk »

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:37 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:37 pmI'm a little concerned by the reference to sites important "to Iranian culture". I wish I had more faith that Trump wouldn't order a missile strike on some ancient mosque.
Totally normal for the President of the United States to threaten non-military, culturally important sites of a sovereign nation for destruction. Totally. Normal.
That was what stood out to me on the first reading. Spending lives in war has to have a purpose. That purpose is not in blowing up museums, monuments, or mosques. That isn't war, that's terrorism.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Zaxxon »

Blackhawk wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:37 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:37 pmI'm a little concerned by the reference to sites important "to Iranian culture". I wish I had more faith that Trump wouldn't order a missile strike on some ancient mosque.
Totally normal for the President of the United States to threaten non-military, culturally important sites of a sovereign nation for destruction. Totally. Normal.
That was what stood out to me on the first reading. Spending lives in war has to have a purpose. That purpose is not in blowing up museums, monuments, or mosques. That isn't war, that's terrorism.
On the bright side, at least the debate over war crimes is complete now that we're openly admitting to planning them.
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Re: Post-Withdrawal Iraq

Post by Blackhawk »

And numbering them based on ancient crimes. That shows strategic necessity, not egotistical revenge, right?

...right?
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
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