Afghanistan finally moves into the Lose column

[Skinypupy]

This was surprising statement from the briefing. It was both flippant and seemed to be taking on excess risk. Let's see.

That sounds less flippant and more like basic acknowledgement of how fraught the evacuation situation truly is. Perhaps I'm reading it wrong.

[Kraken]

One of my coworkers is a very solid Democrat. Not a progressive, but a socially liberal fiscally conservative college educated professional - a Biden man from the start, who has been very pleased with everything he’s done up until now.

He just told me “If Biden abandons Americans in Afghanistan…That would be fucked up, even for me. I don’t know if I could forgive him for that.”

This situation is tremendously fraught for Biden. I hope he’s up to the task.

"How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?” keeps rattling around my head. I imagine it's on Biden's mind, too.

[malchior]

This was surprising statement from the briefing. It was both flippant and seemed to be taking on excess risk. Let's see.

That sounds less flippant and more like basic acknowledgement of how fraught the evacuation situation truly is. Perhaps I'm reading it wrong.

It a bit of both IMO but that's just how I read it.

[malchior]

I can't help but think the very, very bad narrative that is going to spin off here is that the US created a kill list to help protect our troops and we still got hit.

[stimpy]

It was unrealistic to expect we’d save all of our Afghan allies.

Then Biden should have been more measured and cautious in his remarks.
Not that long ago he made it seem like this was going to be a very low risk evacuation and insisted no one would be left behind.
Anyone who wanted out would get out.
He seemed very nonchalant up until the point that things went to shit and then he became defensive and started finger pointing.

In all fairness he did say this in his Aug 20th remarks even though I thought he was over promising a bit considering the security situation.

But make no mistake: This evacuation mission is dangerous. It involves risks to our armed forces, and it is being conducted under difficult circumstances.

I cannot promise what the final outcome will be or what it will be — that it will be without risk of loss. But as Commander-in-Chief, I can assure you that I will mobilize every resource necessary.

Yeah....I was referring more to his earlier comments in July.
He set unattainable goals from the onset. And he did walk them back after the fact.
If he had been more upfront and honest about the possible dangers involved from the get go, I think people would have been a bit more prepared for the eventual shit show that was sure to come.

[malchior]

We will be getting a policy update at 5 PM.

[hepcat]

It was unrealistic to expect we’d save all of our Afghan allies.

Then Biden should have been more measured and cautious in his remarks.
Not that long ago he made it seem like this was going to be a very low risk evacuation and insisted no one would be left behind.
Anyone who wanted out would get out.
He seemed very nonchalant up until the point that things went to shit and then he became defensive and started finger pointing.

In all fairness he did say this in his Aug 20th remarks even though I thought he was over promising a bit considering the security situation.

But make no mistake: This evacuation mission is dangerous. It involves risks to our armed forces, and it is being conducted under difficult circumstances.

I cannot promise what the final outcome will be or what it will be — that it will be without risk of loss. But as Commander-in-Chief, I can assure you that I will mobilize every resource necessary.

Yeah....I was referring more to his earlier comments in July.
He set unattainable goals from the onset. And he did walk them back after the fact.
If he had been more upfront and honest about the possible dangers involved from the get go, I think people would have been a bit more prepared for the eventual shit show that was sure to come.

+1

[Smoove_B]

We will be getting a policy update at 5 PM.

your reminder that when four American soldiers were killed in Niger in 2017, Trump's response was to say nothing for 12 days and then call one of the widows a liar

Here's hoping this 5pm update is better.

[stimpy]

We will be getting a policy update at 5 PM.

your reminder that when four American soldiers were killed in Niger in 2017, Trump's response was to say nothing for 12 days and then call one of the widows a liar

Here's hoping this 5pm update is better.

I love this quote from the guy whose Twitter is 99% filled with comments and rants about Trump:

"Jeff Tiedrich
@itsJeffTiedrich
·
Aug 24
hey, have you read Trump's latest press release? me neither. who gives a fuck what that corroded old racist is whining about now"

Ummmm....apparently YOU do......lol

[malchior]

Biden is going to keep on keep on which matches the tenor of the Pentagon brief. Hopefully there isn't another attack. I wouldn't have pegged Biden as this risk tolerant.

Edit: He was asked about the Bagram decision - he is claiming that the military recommended closing Bagram and focusing on Kabul.

He also pretty much denied the Politico story...kinda. He said in certain cases they told the Taliban to let a particular group through but didn't give them a big comprehensive list. That is a big discrepancy but maybe it lives somewhere in the middle.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Are we even trying? Did we hand deliver this or just send an email from some DC work from home employee? Is the person who sent this on the list? The humiliation will continue until this kind of stuff stops.

The Taliban has a history of brutally murdering Afghans who helped the U.S. and other coalition forces during the conflict.

The decision to give them specific names of Americans and Afghan allies to evacuate has angered lawmakers and military officials.

politico.com/news/2021/08/26…



U.S. Officials provided Taliban with names of Americans, Afghan allies to evacuate

"Basically, they just put all those Afghans on a kill list," said one defense official

[$iljanus]

Biden is going to keep on keep on which matches the tenor of the Pentagon brief. Hopefully there isn't another attack. I wouldn't have pegged Biden as this risk tolerant.

There comes a time when you have an objective which will require risking the lives of soldiers.

[malchior]

Biden is going to keep on keep on which matches the tenor of the Pentagon brief. Hopefully there isn't another attack. I wouldn't have pegged Biden as this risk tolerant.

There comes a time when you have an objective which will require risking the lives of soldiers.

Oh definitely but he is going to have a huge, huge problem if there is a follow on attack.

[$iljanus]

Biden is going to keep on keep on which matches the tenor of the Pentagon brief. Hopefully there isn't another attack. I wouldn't have pegged Biden as this risk tolerant.

There comes a time when you have an objective which will require risking the lives of soldiers.

Oh definitely but he is going to have a huge, huge problem if there is a follow on attack.

And what form the evacuation will take from this point on…

[Anonymous Bosch]

NEW: President Biden's national security team warned him today that "another terror attack in Kabul is likely, but that they are taking maximum force protection measures at the Kabul Airport," per a WH official.

But surely, the terrorists left in charge of counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan will now opt to prevent more terrorism from occurring…

[dbt1949]

I would have thought they would have found a way to prevent suicide cars and maybe bombers from getting to too many people inside the airport by now. Obviously we were caught by surprise but why?

[Anonymous Bosch]

I would have thought they would have found a way to prevent suicide cars and maybe bombers from getting to too many people inside the airport by now. Obviously we were caught by surprise but why?

Sure, if they were stationed in Baghram with a secure, triple-fenced perimeter. But we're now relying upon the Taliban "as a tool to protect us as much as possible," as CENTCOM Commander McKenzie put it just a few days ago. That's how you know it's a shitstorm waiting to happen.

BTW, speaking of Baghram, the following Axios piece, dated August 15, provides some interesting perspective…

Thousands of prisoners freed by Taliban could pose threat to U.S.

The Taliban captured Bagram Air Base on Sunday and released thousands of prisoners, including many senior al Qaeda operatives.

Why it matters: The prisoners were some of the Taliban's most hardened fighters and could pose a threat not only to Afghan citizens but to American security interests.

State of play: U.S. forces handed control of the airfield to Afghan government forces in early July.

• Estimates suggest that from 5,000 to 7,000 prisoners were left behind following the U.S. withdrawal, per CNN.

So, with 5,000 to 7,000 of the most hardened fighters and al Qaeda operatives released from the prison in Baghram, there's a reasonable likelihood they were involved with the Kabul suicide bombing.

[dbt1949]

Good point about relying on the Taliban. Maybe we shouldn't.

[malchior]

This is highly unusual to say the least.

[Anonymous Bosch]

This is highly unusual to say the least.

Here's the video:



He's absolutely right. Kudos to him for his courage, service, and sacrifice.

[Isgrimnur]

Task and Purpose

[$iljanus]

Well that didn’t take long…

Drone strike kills ISIS-K planner

The U.S. military announced its first reprisal strike in Afghanistan since an attack on the Kabul airport killed as many as 170 people, in addition to 13 U.S. service members, as the U.S. officials again warned Americans to leave the airport because of security threats.

“U.S. military forces conducted an over-the-horizon counterterrorism operation today against an ISIS-K planner,” Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, said in a statement, referring to the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan, also known as Islamic State Khorasan, which has claimed responsibility for the Thursday attack.

“The unmanned airstrike occurred in the Nangahar province of Afghanistan,” Captain Urban said. “Initial indications are that we killed the target. We know of no civilian casualties.”

I think there will be no shortage of replacements unfortunately.

[Anonymous Bosch]

I would have thought they would have found a way to prevent suicide cars and maybe bombers from getting to too many people inside the airport by now. Obviously we were caught by surprise but why?

BTW, the following video further illustrates the situation U.S. marines were saddled with, precisely where the attacks occurred:

This is what the #USMarines were facing in their day-to-day work at the exact spot where the attacks took place (filmed a few days ago). No one had been searched - it wasn’t possible. Tough conditions and incredibly vulnerable - open to attack. #KabulAiport #afghanistan

[Drazzil]

I would have thought they would have found a way to prevent suicide cars and maybe bombers from getting to too many people inside the airport by now. Obviously we were caught by surprise but why?

Sure, if they were stationed in Baghram with a secure, triple-fenced perimeter. But we're now relying upon the Taliban "as a tool to protect us as much as possible," as CENTCOM Commander McKenzie put it just a few days ago. That's how you know it's a shitstorm waiting to happen.

BTW, speaking of Baghram, the following Axios piece, dated August 15, provides some interesting perspective…

Thousands of prisoners freed by Taliban could pose threat to U.S.

The Taliban captured Bagram Air Base on Sunday and released thousands of prisoners, including many senior al Qaeda operatives.

Why it matters: The prisoners were some of the Taliban's most hardened fighters and could pose a threat not only to Afghan citizens but to American security interests.

State of play: U.S. forces handed control of the airfield to Afghan government forces in early July.

• Estimates suggest that from 5,000 to 7,000 prisoners were left behind following the U.S. withdrawal, per CNN.

So, with 5,000 to 7,000 of the most hardened fighters and al Qaeda operatives released from the prison in Baghram, there's a reasonable likelihood they were involved with the Kabul suicide bombing.

You know. This is horrible. I think there are a lot of countries that would have just mass executed them on the way out. I know it goes against everything the US is supposed to stand for but I'm willing to bet that the deaths that these guys will cause would pale against the deaths that shooting these dudes now.

I know... I know. Its a shit thing to consider doing but damn!

[hepcat]

Add in the 5000 or so Taliban fighters freed by Trump last year during his failed peace talks and it becomes even more troublesome.

This whole thing is a shit show. Both Biden and Trump have screwed up though.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Add in the 5000 or so Taliban fighters freed by Trump last year during his failed peace talks and it becomes even more troublesome.

This whole thing is a shit show. Both Biden and Trump have screwed up though.

The botched evacuation is entirely on the current POTUS; as he himself said, the buck stops with him. And past mistakes regarding Afghanistan do not absolve the president of his administration’s astonishing incompetence. Keep in mind, Biden was also a proponent of both the war and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan. It’s not as if he had no hand in creating the situation he has bungled in deadly fashion. By needlessly abandoning Baghram in June, by hamstringing the U.S. military and locking them in an airport, by failing to account for Americans and partners in-country before evacuating secure positions, by relying on the Taliban’s cooperation and allowing the group to dictate terms and timelines of withdrawal and security, the current administration has created a humanitarian crisis. Period and amen.

[Isgrimnur]

Too bad he doesn’t have some building full of experts nearby that’s know for planning things. And who would have thought that two decades wasn’t enough to ensure the plans weren’t clown shoes?

[hepcat]

Add in the 5000 or so Taliban fighters freed by Trump last year during his failed peace talks and it becomes even more troublesome.

This whole thing is a shit show. Both Biden and Trump have screwed up though.

The botched evacuation is entirely on the current POTUS; as he himself said, the buck stops with him. And past mistakes regarding Afghanistan do not absolve the president of his administration’s astonishing incompetence. Keep in mind, Biden was also a proponent of both the war and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan. It’s not as if he had no hand in creating the situation he has bungled in deadly fashion. By needlessly abandoning Baghram in June, by hamstringing the U.S. military and locking them in an airport, by failing to account for Americans and partners in-country before evacuating secure positions, by relying on the Taliban’s cooperation and allowing the group to dictate terms and timelines of withdrawal and security, the current administration has created a humanitarian crisis. Period and amen.

I never said a thing about absolving Biden. I simply said this was a mistake by more than one administration. Amen and apostrophe.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Add in the 5000 or so Taliban fighters freed by Trump last year during his failed peace talks and it becomes even more troublesome.

This whole thing is a shit show. Both Biden and Trump have screwed up though.

The botched evacuation is entirely on the current POTUS; as he himself said, the buck stops with him. And past mistakes regarding Afghanistan do not absolve the president of his administration’s astonishing incompetence. Keep in mind, Biden was also a proponent of both the war and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan. It’s not as if he had no hand in creating the situation he has bungled in deadly fashion. By needlessly abandoning Baghram in June, by hamstringing the U.S. military and locking them in an airport, by failing to account for Americans and partners in-country before evacuating secure positions, by relying on the Taliban’s cooperation and allowing the group to dictate terms and timelines of withdrawal and security, the current administration has created a humanitarian crisis. Period and amen.

I simply said this was a mistake by more than one administration. Amen and apostrophe.

Yes, and I am specifically saying the botched evacuation was not a mistake by more than one administration for the reasons previously indicated.

[Unagi]

The botched evacuation is entirely on the current POTUS; as he himself said, the buck stops with him.

I believe he meant it, tbh... not that he was willing to fall on any sword.

FAR Fucking cry from what Trump would have EVER said... And I know that may not either be here nor there, but at the same time - it most certainly is.


Biden gets an F on this. And he owns it... but owning a burnt shitburger isn't the end of the world. And there are a lot of things (like marines dying at search points) that are going to be a part of this. Which isn't to say he doesn't get an F.


Now, to be fair - the deal(s) with the Taliban by way of Trump, set the stage for a pretty unrecoverable "Ain't no body that isn't Taliban going to be in power very long" vibe, and the stage was massively set.

[hepcat]

He earns an F for this, yes. But overlooking the part the Doha Agreement debacle played in the current situation does not make it go away.

[Anonymous Bosch]

He earns an F for this, yes. But overlooking the part the Doha Agreement debacle played in the current situation does not make it go away.

And as AP News reported about the Doha agreement:

WASHINGTON (AP) — As President Donald Trump’s administration signed a peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020, he optimistically proclaimed that “we think we’ll be successful in the end.” His secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, asserted that the administration was “seizing the best opportunity for peace in a generation.”

Eighteen months later, President Joe Biden is pointing to the agreement signed in Doha, Qatar, as he tries to deflect blame for the Taliban overrunning Afghanistan in a blitz. He says it bound him to withdraw U.S. troops, setting the stage for the chaos engulfing the country.

But Biden can go only so far in claiming the agreement boxed him in. It had an escape clause: The U.S. could have withdrawn from the accord if Afghan peace talks failed. They did, but Biden chose to stay in it, although he delayed the complete pullout from May to September.

When the Taliban violated the Doha agreement -- premised on a negotiated power sharing -- the U.S. was free to keep Baghram, its 2,500 troops and NATO’s 5,000, to use air power. Biden could have saved thousands. He chose not to.

[Exodor]

When the Taliban violated the Doha agreement -- premised on a negotiated power sharing -- the U.S. was free to keep Baghram, its 2,500 troops and NATO’s 5,000, to use air power. Biden could have saved thousands. He chose not to.

And kept us stuck in Afghanistan indefinitely. After 20 years it's time to get out. The exit was always going to be messy but that's not a reason to keep troops there after 20 years.

[Anonymous Bosch]

When the Taliban violated the Doha agreement -- premised on a negotiated power sharing -- the U.S. was free to keep Baghram, its 2,500 troops and NATO’s 5,000, to use air power. Biden could have saved thousands. He chose not to.

And kept us stuck in Afghanistan indefinitely.

Only if you buy into an absurd prison of two ideas, i.e. that there were only two possibilities: reliance upon the Taliban "as a tool to protect us as much as possible" to withdraw via HKIA or remain indefinitely in Afghanistan.

After 20 years it's time to get out. The exit was always going to be messy but that's not a reason to keep troops there after 20 years.

I completely agree. But it's preposterous to pretend this was the only way evacuation was possible, and that Baghram could not possibly have provided a more secure evacuation hub.

[Victoria Raverna]

I think the plan was probably to withdraw before Taliban reached Kabul, not to rely on Taliban to protect. They probably think the Taliban will wait until after the withdrawal before taking over Afghanistan.

[Anonymous Bosch]

I think the plan was probably to withdraw before Taliban reached Kabul, not to rely on Taliban to protect. They probably think the Taliban will wait until after the withdrawal before taking over Afghanistan.

That's no excuse; any military evacuation plan contingent upon planning for the best is a shitty one to say the least. The decision to abandon Baghram Air Base only served to hasten the collapse of Afghanistan by leaving them with no U.S. military support, and leaving the civilians stranded there with only one option: to try to get to the Kabul international airport through Taliban checkpoints (inducing the horrific videos of Afghan residents plunging to their deaths as they desperately clung to departing U.S. aircraft, along with the subsequent bombing).

[Anonymous Bosch]

Courtesy of The Times & Sunday Times, a graphic illustration of what $85bn worth of lost equipment provides for the Taliban:

[Anonymous Bosch]

Phase Two seems to be underway, i.e. attempts to breach the Kabul airport fence and blow up C-17s with VBIEDs:

BREAKING: Taliban spokesman says a U.S. airstrike targeted a suicide bomber in a vehicle who wanted to strike the Kabul airport. apne.ws/MJ9NIad

[malchior]

We say ISIS-K bomber planning imminent attack - they say 9 people in one family including 6 children.

Nine members of one family were killed in a US drone strike targeting a vehicle in a residential neighborhood of Kabul, according to a relative of those killed.

Those killed included six children, the youngest being a 2-year-old girl, the brother of one of the dead told a local journalist working with CNN.

He said the people killed were his brother Zamaray (40 years old), Naseer (30), Zameer (20), Faisal (10), Farzad (9), Armin (4), Benyamin (3), Ayat (2) and Sumaya (2).

The brother cried as he told the journalist that they were "an ordinary family."

"We are not ISIS or Daesh and this was a family home — where my brothers lived with their families," he said.

CNN obtained images of the aftermath of the strike. A US official confirmed the location in Kabul's Khaje Bughra neighborhood. US Central Command said earlier they were assessing the possibilities of civilian casualties.

A man named Ahad, who said he was a neighbor of the family, told CNN: "All the neighbors tried to help and brought water to put out the fire and I saw that there were 5 or 6 people dead. The father of the family and another young boy and there were two children. They were dead. They were in pieces. There were [also] two wounded."

Ahad told CNN he had witnessed the airstrike at around 5 pm local time as he walked towards his home. He said he heard the noise of the rocket and a loud bang, and ducked for cover, before trying to help rescue his neighbors. Ahad told CNN that two other people were wounded in the attack.

The US military said in their statement that there were “Significant secondary explosions from the vehicle indicated the presence of a substantial amount of explosive material,” the spokesperson said.

A local journalist who visited the scene soon after the airstrike told CNN that "whatever material was in the car, I don’t know. The car was in a very bad state, just a skeleton of the car was left."

[Anonymous Bosch]

We say ISIS-K bomber planning imminent attack - they say 9 people in one family including 6 children.

Indeed, the vast majority of U.S.-allied Afghanis are now in hiding or, if they're fortunate, evacuated out of the country. So realistically, you do have to wonder how reliable U.S. human intel in Afghanistan could possibly be at this stage.

Speaking of which…

As the Taliban Tighten Their Grip, Fears of Retribution Grow

Taliban leaders have promised amnesty to Afghan officials and soldiers, but there are increasing reports of detentions, disappearances and even executions.

ISTANBUL — When Taliban troops seized control of the Afghan capital two weeks ago, the invading units made a beeline for two critical targets: the headquarters of the National Security Directorate and the Ministry of Communications.

Their aim — recounted by two Afghan officials who had been briefed separately on the raid — was to secure the files of Afghan intelligence officers and their informers, and to obtain the means of tracking the telephone numbers of Afghan citizens.

But… "New! Moderate!"