Afghanistan finally moves into the Lose column

[malchior]

Maybe. There is a real possibility that both narratives are true. They hit a legitimate target and the initial or secondaries caused the collateral damage that killed 9 people. The Taliban aren't trustworthy enough to believe their reports out as truth. Unfortunately, neither are we.

[Victoria Raverna]

We say ISIS-K bomber planning imminent attack - they say 9 people in one family including 6 children.

While it is possible they attacked the wrong target, it is also possible they attacked the right target.

At 2018, suicide bomb attacks in Indonesia, the bombers are one family. Two male kids aged 18 and 15 bombed one church, about 5 minutes later the father bombed another church and not long after that the mother with two daughters aged 12 and 9 bombed another church.

[malchior]

This is highly unusual to say the least.

The guy blew a complete gasket and has gone full #MAGA berserker. There are more videos in the thread but the tldr; is that the guy broke completely. More interesting data point on the impact on our military of the "big picture" failure and toll of this disastrous war than anything else right now.

[dbt1949]

He is one upset nutcase.

[El Guapo]

Do I understand the AP article linked earlier that the Taliban is backing the U.S. account (that the U.S. was targeting an active suicide bomber)?

[YellowKing]

Part of the problem is the media continues to give these nutcases a stage. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this guy's criticism played over and over again on both local and national news. We haven't learned anything.

[Unagi]

Do I understand the AP article linked earlier that the Taliban is backing the U.S. account (that the U.S. was targeting an active suicide bomber)?

That’s what it sounded like to me.

[malchior]

Part of the problem is the media continues to give these nutcases a stage. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this guy's criticism played over and over again on both local and national news. We haven't learned anything.

It is a tricky line. This is news IMO. We have accounts of active and inactive officers in the military going berserk while people are on the streets agitating for armed conflict (examples in the covid and domestic violence threads). We should be aware how big the problem is. And how it seemingly is getting worse. The tricky part is how much it is helping that process along.

Do I understand the AP article linked earlier that the Taliban is backing the U.S. account (that the U.S. was targeting an active suicide bomber)?

That’s what it sounded like to me.

That was my read too. The family being killed is a potential consequence of conducting an airstrike in a dense population center. We will likely take excess risk against their welfare to get our people out safely at this point.

[El Guapo]

Part of the problem is the media continues to give these nutcases a stage. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this guy's criticism played over and over again on both local and national news. We haven't learned anything.

It is a tricky line. This is news IMO. We have accounts of active and inactive officers in the military going berserk while people are on the streets agitating for armed conflict (examples in the covid and domestic violence threads). We should be aware how big the problem is. And how it seemingly is getting worse. The tricky part is how much it is helping that process along.

Once he's revealed as a MAGA nutball though (as opposed to some sensible dissenter or the like) then his criticism essentially loses its news value. Or at best becomes a small data point regarding nutballs in the military.

[malchior]

Part of the problem is the media continues to give these nutcases a stage. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this guy's criticism played over and over again on both local and national news. We haven't learned anything.

It is a tricky line. This is news IMO. We have accounts of active and inactive officers in the military going berserk while people are on the streets agitating for armed conflict (examples in the covid and domestic violence threads). We should be aware how big the problem is. And how it seemingly is getting worse. The tricky part is how much it is helping that process along.

Once he's revealed as a MAGA nutball though (as opposed to some sensible dissenter or the like) then his criticism essentially loses its news value. Or at best becomes a small data point regarding nutballs in the military.

How so? The nutballs are the people we need to worried about.

[El Guapo]

Do I understand the AP article linked earlier that the Taliban is backing the U.S. account (that the U.S. was targeting an active suicide bomber)?

That’s what it sounded like to me.

That was my read too. The family being killed is a potential consequence of conducting an airstrike in a dense population center. We will likely take excess risk against their welfare to get our people out safely at this point.

Raises the odds that the U.S. did hit the right target, though. While the Taliban and U.S. have some aligned interests at the moment (in terms of the U.S. leaving, and in terms of disliking the Islamic State), I still think they would take advantage of a strike against an innocent family to criticize the U.S..

Going to be a little funny if the U.S. and the Taliban become de facto allies against an Islamic State insurgency, though.

[El Guapo]

Part of the problem is the media continues to give these nutcases a stage. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this guy's criticism played over and over again on both local and national news. We haven't learned anything.

It is a tricky line. This is news IMO. We have accounts of active and inactive officers in the military going berserk while people are on the streets agitating for armed conflict (examples in the covid and domestic violence threads). We should be aware how big the problem is. And how it seemingly is getting worse. The tricky part is how much it is helping that process along.

Once he's revealed as a MAGA nutball though (as opposed to some sensible dissenter or the like) then his criticism essentially loses its news value. Or at best becomes a small data point regarding nutballs in the military.

How so? The nutballs are the people we need to worried about.

What I mean is that the substance of his criticism becomes a non-story. Like, if the guy's a straight up MAGA nutball, then of course he's criticizing what the Biden administration is doing. He'd probably be doing that regardless of what Biden was doing.

If the story is about MAGA nutballs in the military, then this guy is presumably one among many. So he becomes a data point, but just one data point among many. So maybe this guy becomes one sentence or two in a longer article about that.

[malchior]

Right. That I get. I agree that sense. Further, we don't need to be rebroadcasting his rants. If anyone wants to see first hand how unhinged he is, then they are readily findable.

[Anonymous Bosch]

U.S. State Dept. Press Briefing, Aug. 27:

QUESTION: I wanted to ask about the reports that have come out about the U.S. sharing information from – about Americans’ names who are trying to get to the airport, other information, and their coordination with the Taliban. Can you speak to those reports? Is the – are U.S. diplomats providing that level of detail to the Taliban?

MR PRICE: What I can say is that the idea that we are providing names or personally identifiable information to the Taliban in a way that exposes anyone to additional risk, that is simply wrong. Simply wrong.

New York Times, Aug. 30, 2021:

American University of Afghanistan students and relatives trying to flee were sent home

Hundreds of students, their relatives and staff of the American University of Afghanistan gathered at a safe house on Sunday and boarded buses in what was supposed to be a final attempt at evacuation on U.S. military flights, the students said.

But after seven hours of waiting for clearance to enter the airport gates and driving around the city, the group met a dead end: Evacuations were permanently called off. The airport gates remained a security threat, and civilian evacuations were ending Monday.

“I regret to inform you that the high command at HKIA in the airport has announced there will be no more rescue flights,” said an email sent to students from the university administration on Sunday afternoon, which was shared with The New York Times.

“The scholar pilgrims who were turned away today while seeking safe passage to a better future need the help of the U.S. government who gave them the hope they must not lose,” the American University president, Ian Bickford, said.

The email asked the 600 or so students and relatives to return home. The U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan must be completed by a Tuesday deadline, so the U.S. military is turning from evacuating civilians to bringing its own personnel home.

The group was then alarmed after the U.S. military, following protocol, shared a list of names and passport information of hundreds of students and their families with the Taliban guarding the airport checkpoints, the university president said.

“They told us: we have given your names to the Taliban,” said Hosay, a 24-year-old sophomore studying business administration who was on the bus on Sunday. “We are all terrified, there is no evacuation, there is no getting out.”

[El Guapo]

On the one hand that answer is probably technically correct, since the question was about Americans, and this story is (I think) about Afghanis. BUT on the other hand I think the Afghanis are precisely the ones that need to be worried about the Taliban targeting them, as I imagine the Taliban is going to reluctant to target and kill U.S. citizens (not that there's no risk there, just considerably less risk).

[malchior]

The question said Americans but he expanded to 'anyone'. I'm going to chalk this up less to lying and more to disconnects in information sharing. Everything is changing constantly.

[El Guapo]

The question said Americans but he expanded to 'anyone'. I'm going to chalk this up less to lying and more to disconnects in information sharing. Everything is changing constantly.

Yeah I know but (maybe this is me speaking as a lawyer) but the question still matters insofar as if pressed the guy could reasonably say his answer was in the context of the question, and so that by "anyone" he meant "any American".

The other question is what is the Biden administration saying / doing to deter the Taliban from going after specified individuals. Like, if I was one of those students I would be absolutely terrified that the Taliban had been given my information. The one flipside is whether they get any protection from the fact that the U.S. government is simultaneously saying "we are aware of these specific individuals who have some right to travel to the U.S." such that the Taliban knows that the U.S. knows about them and may do something in reprisal if things start happening to people on that list.

[Anonymous Bosch]

On the one hand that answer is probably technically correct, since the question was about Americans, and this story is (I think) about Afghanis. BUT on the other hand I think the Afghanis are precisely the ones that need to be worried about the Taliban targeting them, as I imagine the Taliban is going to reluctant to target and kill U.S. citizens (not that there's no risk there, just considerably less risk).

C'mon, that's mealy-mouthed bullshit. The state dept. blowhole said in no uncertain terms, "What I can say is that the idea that we are providing names or personally identifiable information to the Taliban in a way that exposes anyone to additional risk, that is simply wrong."

Also, reprisals? We are 26 hours from a murderous shitshow. Here's the recipe:

• The US guard will be gradually replaced by the “Taliban Special Forces” sources tell me
• Serious concerns about the moment that thousands of people outside Kabul airport will realise the US guards have left the airport premier as they may storm the runaway

[dbt1949]

I am wondering how all the military is going to leave at the last moment.
5000 GIs run to 100 airplanes waiting at the end of the runway at 23:59?

[Holman]

I am wondering how all the military is going to leave at the last moment.
5000 GIs run to 100 airplanes waiting at the end of the runway at 23:59?

More like 2000 guys on eight or ten aircraft (with dozens of drones and other aircraft providing cover), but yeah.

The Taliban have every incentive to make it happen smoothly. They're *this close* to an uncontested claim of international legitimacy.

[Holman]

News now is that three American planes have left Kabul with no further activity indicated. It's just past midnight there now.

Apparently it's over.

DOD and State have just announced press conferences for 4:30 and 5:00.

[Octavious]

[Unagi]

They're *this close* to an uncontested claim of international legitimacy.

A perilously unstable control of the country, if you can keep it.

[Alefroth]

News now is that three American planes have left Kabul with no further activity indicated. It's just past midnight there now.

Apparently it's over.

DOD and State have just announced press conferences for 4:30 and 5:00.

Huh, I thought flights would go out until end of the 31st.

[Holman]

From NBC:

A White House official said Monday that since the Taliban took control of Kabul in mid-August, the U.S. had evacuated and facilitated the evacuation of approximately 116,700 people. Since the end of July, the U.S. has relocated approximately 122,300 people, the official said.

On Sunday, about 250 Americans remained in Afghanistan and were seeking to leave the country, according to a State Department spokesperson, who said that assistance was being coordinated “around the clock for this group.” The official said that those Americans might already be at the airport in Kabul or “in the process of being guided there, and all have information on how to reach us.”

The State Department was also in touch Sunday with about 280 additional people who identified themselves as Americans but were either undecided about leaving Afghanistan or said that they did not intend to leave.

[$iljanus]

[Anonymous Bosch]

From NBC:

A White House official said Monday that since the Taliban took control of Kabul in mid-August, the U.S. had evacuated and facilitated the evacuation of approximately 116,700 people. Since the end of July, the U.S. has relocated approximately 122,300 people, the official said.

On Sunday, about 250 Americans remained in Afghanistan and were seeking to leave the country, according to a State Department spokesperson, who said that assistance was being coordinated “around the clock for this group.” The official said that those Americans might already be at the airport in Kabul or “in the process of being guided there, and all have information on how to reach us.”

The State Department was also in touch Sunday with about 280 additional people who identified themselves as Americans but were either undecided about leaving Afghanistan or said that they did not intend to leave.

Right, because those undecided Americans obviously chose to stay. It is such a pleasant time of year for a visit, after all.

BTW, dunno how genuine this is, but we may have provided the Taliban with an upgrade from cranes…

Taliban appear to fly US Black Hawk helicopters over Kandahar

The Taliban is seemingly parading their new air force in the skies over Afghanistan, with video online purporting to show US-made Black Hawk helicopters flying over the streets of Kandahar.

The Taliban, by some estimates, has more Black Hawk helicopters than 85 per cent of the world after the US abandoned $85bn worth of military equipment.

Unverified footage released by the Twitter account Talib Times, which claims to be the "official news" handle of the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan, shows a man hanging from a UH-60 Black Hawk a day before the US withdraws from the country.

“Our Air Force! At this time, the Islamic Emirate’s air force helicopters are flying over Kandahar city and patrolling the city,” the tweet said.

[Paingod]

Remember when we used to scuttle equipment so it couldn't be used against us or our allies? Did we seriously think the Afghanistan government would hold up long enough to use any of that?

[Anonymous Bosch]

They're *this close* to an uncontested claim of international legitimacy.

I wonder what message they're sending?

[Paingod]

At this point we should be asking how long these things will continue to run without skilled maintenance and parts.

I suspect most of the aircraft are short-lived. The armored vehicles and hummers maybe not so much.

[malchior]

I can't believe their moderation message was an act!

[Holman]

At this point we should be asking how long these things will continue to run without skilled maintenance and parts.

I suspect most of the aircraft are short-lived. The armored vehicles and hummers maybe not so much.

Yeah. They've got about 20-30 hours in each aircraft before it will be necessary to cannibalize parts, and they won't have the training to do it.

Simple trucks and ground engines are less of a problem for them, though.

I assume there are passwords and keys and permissions involved in accessing the more advanced targeting/navigation/etc systems. It might even be possible for us to delete these remotely.

[malchior]

They are almost certainly on their own in country radio net. They can talk to each other on it. Sweet. They can also do that on the multi-billion dollar cell network we donated to them as well.

[Drazzil]

From NBC:

A White House official said Monday that since the Taliban took control of Kabul in mid-August, the U.S. had evacuated and facilitated the evacuation of approximately 116,700 people. Since the end of July, the U.S. has relocated approximately 122,300 people, the official said.

On Sunday, about 250 Americans remained in Afghanistan and were seeking to leave the country, according to a State Department spokesperson, who said that assistance was being coordinated “around the clock for this group.” The official said that those Americans might already be at the airport in Kabul or “in the process of being guided there, and all have information on how to reach us.”

The State Department was also in touch Sunday with about 280 additional people who identified themselves as Americans but were either undecided about leaving Afghanistan or said that they did not intend to leave.

Right, because those undecided Americans obviously chose to stay. It is such a pleasant time of year for a visit, after all.

BTW, dunno how genuine this is, but we may have provided the Taliban with an upgrade from cranes…

Taliban appear to fly US Black Hawk helicopters over Kandahar

The Taliban is seemingly parading their new air force in the skies over Afghanistan, with video online purporting to show US-made Black Hawk helicopters flying over the streets of Kandahar.

The Taliban, by some estimates, has more Black Hawk helicopters than 85 per cent of the world after the US abandoned $85bn worth of military equipment.

Unverified footage released by the Twitter account Talib Times, which claims to be the "official news" handle of the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan, shows a man hanging from a UH-60 Black Hawk a day before the US withdraws from the country.

“Our Air Force! At this time, the Islamic Emirate’s air force helicopters are flying over Kandahar city and patrolling the city,” the tweet said.

That's horrifying...These sorts of actions will undoubtedly affect their claims towards legitimacy. That said the fall of Kabul seems to have given them loads of toys to play with,

A very small part of me admires the ingenuity of hanging someone from a helicopter. I google searched hanging from helicopter and I think these idiots are the first to do it.

[Holman]

That's horrifying...These sorts of actions will undoubtedly affect their claims towards legitimacy. That said the fall of Kabul seems to have given them loads of toys to play with,

A very small part of me admires the ingenuity of hanging someone from a helicopter. I google searched hanging from helicopter and I think these idiots are the first to do it.

Right-wing Latin American governments are fond of throwing dissidents and rebels from helicopters.

I wouldn't be surprised (but I would be disgusted) to hear that American troops did the same in Vietnam and in the GWOT.

[El Guapo]

Yeah, no one should be under the illusion that the Taliban are anything other than a bunch of assholes. It's *possible* that they'll be mildly better than last time, but if there's any improvement I imagine it'll be around the margins (10% fewer public executions!).

[Drazzil]

That's horrifying...These sorts of actions will undoubtedly affect their claims towards legitimacy. That said the fall of Kabul seems to have given them loads of toys to play with,

A very small part of me admires the ingenuity of hanging someone from a helicopter. I google searched hanging from helicopter and I think these idiots are the first to do it.

Right-wing Latin American governments are fond of throwing dissidents and rebels from helicopters.

I wouldn't be surprised (but I would be disgusted) to hear that American troops did the same in Vietnam and in the GWOT.

Chucking someone from a heli is not the same as hanging someone from one. Also, unless I'm talking out of my ass here, its also sort of dangerous to have a body hanging off one side of a helicopter, cause it causes weight imbalance?

Edit for: It appears the guy hanging from the helicopter isin't doing it from the skids.

[Jeff V]

Did anyone see McMaster on MTP yesterday? He seemed pretty disgusted about the way everything went down. Parallels with Vietnam were appropriate I think, we never went all-in to completely accomplish what we set to do, resulting in 2 decades of slow drain on our military and the country's will to support them.

He's not my favorite talking head on such things (a friend of mine was a classmate of his at West Point and doesn't have anything good to say about him). Still, it obvious he's passionate about the outcome and saddened by what has happened. The Elephants want to blame Biden, but he's the only president in the past 20 years who followed through on the promise to end it. Bush2. Obama, and Trump all knew the withdrawal would be a shit-show and kicked the can. I'm glad Biden got this out of the way early in his term.

[Victoria Raverna]

Do I understand the AP article linked earlier that the Taliban is backing the U.S. account (that the U.S. was targeting an active suicide bomber)?

That’s what it sounded like to me.

That was my read too. The family being killed is a potential consequence of conducting an airstrike in a dense population center. We will likely take excess risk against their welfare to get our people out safely at this point.

Raises the odds that the U.S. did hit the right target, though. While the Taliban and U.S. have some aligned interests at the moment (in terms of the U.S. leaving, and in terms of disliking the Islamic State), I still think they would take advantage of a strike against an innocent family to criticize the U.S..

Going to be a little funny if the U.S. and the Taliban become de facto allies against an Islamic State insurgency, though.

Did Taliban give US bad intel? US killed Afghans that helped US. Or this Afghan guy suddenly hate US and want to be a suicide bomber?

[malchior]

Washington Post

Biden can't seem to catch a break on this whole affair.

President Biden made his way on Sunday around a quiet room at Dover Air Force Base, a chamber filled with couches and chairs, with dignitaries and grieving families huddling together as the president came to speak to them privately, one family at a time.

Mark Schmitz had told a military officer the night before that he wasn’t much interested in speaking to a president he did not vote for, one whose execution of the Afghan pullout he disdains — and one he now blames for the death of his 20-year-old son Jared.

But overnight, sleeping in a nondescript hotel nearby, Schmitz changed his mind. So on that dreary morning he and his ex-wife were approached by Biden after he’d talked to all the other families. But by his own account, Schmitz glared hard at the president, so Biden spent more time looking at his ex-wife, repeatedly invoking his own son, Beau, who died six years ago.

Schmitz did not want to hear about Beau, he wanted to talk about Jared. Eventually, the parents took out a photo to show to Biden. “I said, ‘Don’t you ever forget that name. Don’t you ever forget that face. Don’t you ever forget the names of the other 12,’ ” Schmitz said. “ ‘And take some time to learn their stories.’ ”

Biden did not seem to like that, Schmitz recalled, and he bristled, offering a blunt response: “I do know their stories.”

It was a remarkable moment of two men thrown together by history. One was a president of the United States who prides himself on connecting with just about anyone in a moment of grief, but now coming face-to-face with grief that he himself had a role in creating. The other was a proud Marine father from Missouri, awoken a few nights before at 2:40 a.m. by a military officer at his door with news that nearly made him faint.

...

Despite Schmitz’s disenchantment with Biden, one part of the encounter did strike him favorably. The president at one point pulled out the card he keeps in his breast pocket showing the number of American service members who have died in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It’s something Biden has talked about for years, but now the card had an addition that reflected the new toll that Biden was responsible for. “At the end of it, it had ‘Plus 13,’ ” Schmitz said. “I know it’s just a number, but it was a simple reflective thing that he looks at. I’ll give him kudos there.”

Biden did not address the group collectively with prepared comments, instead making his way around the room for more private moments with each individual family. And the reactions varied widely; some families opted not to meet with Biden at all, while others accepted hugs from him.

...

But his life experiences, which so often have provided the connective tissue to help him reach those immersed in grief, at times seemed to fall flat on this occasion. For the first time, Biden was meeting with relatives some of whom held him responsible for the death of their loved ones.

And they did not necessarily view Biden’s suffering as directly relevant to theirs.

“When he just kept talking about his son so much it was just — my interest was lost in that. I was more focused on my own son than what happened with him and his son,” Schmitz said. “I’m not trying to insult the president, but it just didn’t seem that appropriate to spend that much time on his own son.”

“I think it was all him trying to say he understands grief,” Schmitz added. “But when you’re the one responsible for ultimately the way things went down, you kind of feel like that person should own it a little bit more. Our son is now gone. Because of a direct decision or game plan — or lack thereof — that he put in place.”

...

Some of the grieving relatives felt a need to interact directly with the president after losing their loved one, including Jiennah McCollum, who married Rylee McCollum just six months ago and is due to give birth to the couple’s child next month.

...

“Gigi wanted to look him in the eye and hear him,” McCollum’s sister Roice said in a text message to The Washington Post, using Jiennah’s nickname.

Roice recounted that Jiennah left disappointed. The president, she said, kept checking his watch and bringing up Beau.

And her feelings appeared to be influenced by her overall views of Biden’s politics and performance as president.

“He cannot possibly understand,” Roice said. “My dad and I did not want to speak to him. You cannot kneel on our flag and pretend you care about our troops. You can’t f--- up as bad as he did and say you’re sorry. This did not need to happen, and every life is on his hands. The thousands of Afghans who will suffer and be tortured is a direct result of his incompetence.”

Schmitz did not react as harshly, but he said that he was consoled far more by the words of military leaders who came up to him on Sunday to offer their condolences than by anything Biden said.

...

Schmitz said he grew agitated every time he saw Biden check his watch. And at the end, there was another outburst of emotion.

As the families began loading back onto their bus, one woman grew emotional and began screaming in Biden’s direction across the tarmac.

“She said, ‘I hope you burn in hell! That was my brother!’ ” Schmitz recounted.

“I can’t fault her for it,” he added. “We all lost somebody.”