Energy Policy

[Isgrimnur]

The United States is producing more oil than any country in history

The United States is set to produce a global record of 13.3 million barrels per day of crude and condensate during the fourth quarter of this year, according to a report published Tuesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Last month, weekly US oil production hit 13.2 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s just above the Donald Trump-era record of 13.1 million set in early 2020 just before the Covid-19 crisis sent output and prices crashing.

That’s been helping to keep a lid on crude and gasoline prices.

US output – led by shale oil drillers in Texas and New Mexico’s Permian Basin – is so strong that it’s sending supplies overseas. America is exporting the same amount of crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids as Saudi Arabia or Russia produces, S&P said.
...
Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday cut their forecast for oil prices next year. The bank said the “key reason” behind the lowered forecast is the abundance of US supply.

Global demand for crude oil is set to hit a record in 2024 – but it will “easily be met” by the growth in supply, according to S&P’s projections.
...
Instead, the spike in US output has been driven by smarter and more efficient operations by oil companies. Energy firms have figured out ways to squeeze more and more oil out of the ground – often without increasing drilling dramatically.

The shale oil revolution has been driven by new drilling techniques that have unlocked new resources. But this technique can be more complex and requires vast amounts of water.

[Kraken]

Remember the arguments we used to have over "peak oil"? I'll bet those threads haven't aged well. We have too much oil and there's no ceiling in sight.

Fossil fuel production needs to peak NOW if we want a future climate that's conducive to human life. The carbon budget remaining to limit warming to 1.5 C is about 300 gigatons. At the rate we're using it up, we'll blow through that by 2030. Renewables are coming online fast, but they're only keeping pace with the growth in energy consumption -- not yet denting oil's share. Many climate scientists believe that we've already locked in 1.5 C and are now fighting for 2 degrees, which will bring a world of hurt.

Of course, cheap energy makes the world go 'round, and gasoline prices factor into who wins elections.

[malchior]

This seems like a good spot for this. Texas is pushing back against CAFE standards and of course they are venue shopping for the most extremist judge they can to make sure the most oil ever keeps flowing. Hint: it's the poll but the answer is obvious.

Edit: As someone in the know noted, the lawsuit was filed in a district with a *single* judge.

[RunningMn9]

Remember the arguments we used to have over "peak oil"? I'll bet those threads haven't aged well. We have too much oil and there's no ceiling in sight.

Those arguments were about the philosophical nature of "peak oil", and now I'm concerned that you don't remember the danger. Figuring out how to drain the tank faster is a bad thing, not a good thing.

[Kraken]

Remember the arguments we used to have over "peak oil"? I'll bet those threads haven't aged well. We have too much oil and there's no ceiling in sight.

Those arguments were about the philosophical nature of "peak oil", and now I'm concerned that you don't remember the danger. Figuring out how to drain the tank faster is a bad thing, not a good thing.

Well yeah, we need to leave it in the ground. That's an environmental imperative. Unfortunately it doesn't align with our economic and political imperatives, and by the time it does it will be too late.

And I remember those threads as being mostly noxiousdog preaching that the world was maxing out its oil production.

[RunningMn9]

Well yeah, we need to leave it in the ground. That's an environmental imperative. Unfortunately it doesn't align with our economic and political imperatives, and by the time it does it will be too late.

And I remember those threads as being mostly noxiousdog preaching that the world was maxing out its oil production.

Peak Oil as a thing that we might experience is a bit complicated (from what I can tell), and there are still credible sources talking about how we are currently at it (from Oct 2023). By focusing on US production changes, not sure if we are missing the big picture.

But the general problem with fossil fuels has always been that they are a stockpile resource. You can consume them at any rate until they are gone. The spigot doesn’t gradually slow down, it just goes dry.

But to your point, yes, our short-sighted economic and political imperatives will always win out. The world has long since broken young and idealistic RM9.

[LordMortis]

Well yeah, we need to leave it in the ground. That's an environmental imperative. Unfortunately it doesn't align with our economic and political imperatives, and by the time it does it will be too late.

And I remember those threads as being mostly noxiousdog preaching that the world was maxing out its oil production.

Peak Oil as a thing that we might experience is a bit complicated (from what I can tell), and there are still credible sources talking about how we are currently at it (from Oct 2023). By focusing on US production changes, not sure if we are missing the big picture.

But the general problem with fossil fuels has always been that they are a stockpile resource. You can consume them at any rate until they are gone. The spigot doesn’t gradually slow down, it just goes dry.

But to your point, yes, our short-sighted economic and political imperatives will always win out. The world has long since broken young and idealistic RM9.

Not necessarily true. We use them in the state they are until they aren't worth using in that state. We can convert carbon fuels to energy again and again, much as we raise and burn wood. All fossil fuels are is the energy from dead animals and plants and animals and plants are "renewable". Slurry may be an impractical fossil fuel now but if oil and coal extraction get to be too expensive and we don't have proper alternatives, you can bet we'll use it, just as we use wood stove and corn fuel now.

[Isgrimnur]

Cars That Run on Trees

[Kraken]

Well yeah, we need to leave it in the ground. That's an environmental imperative. Unfortunately it doesn't align with our economic and political imperatives, and by the time it does it will be too late.

And I remember those threads as being mostly noxiousdog preaching that the world was maxing out its oil production.

Peak Oil as a thing that we might experience is a bit complicated (from what I can tell), and there are still credible sources talking about how we are currently at it (from Oct 2023). By focusing on US production changes, not sure if we are missing the big picture.

But the general problem with fossil fuels has always been that they are a stockpile resource. You can consume them at any rate until they are gone. The spigot doesn’t gradually slow down, it just goes dry.

But to your point, yes, our short-sighted economic and political imperatives will always win out. The world has long since broken young and idealistic RM9.

Not necessarily true. We use them in the state they are until they aren't worth using in that state. We can convert carbon fuels to energy again and again, much as we raise and burn wood. All fossil fuels are is the energy from dead animals and plants and animals and plants are "renewable". Slurry may be an impractical fossil fuel now but if oil and coal extraction get to be too expensive and we don't have proper alternatives, you can bet we'll use it, just as we use wood stove and corn fuel now.

As I like to say, the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones. Likewise, the Oil Age has to end before we run out of (cheap) oil or it will end when it takes down our civilization. We're still in the early stages of that transformation, with a large share of our population kicking and screaming and trying to prevent it.

[RunningMn9]

Gonna need to know a little more about animal slurry.

Kraken, we agree on that much. We will transition to something else or fail like most previous civilizations. Either way it's out of my hands.

[LordMortis]

I'm not a chemist or a physicist, so I don't know much...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel_production

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

https://www.google.com/search?q=animal+ ... il+and+gas

https://www.google.com/search?q=corn+in+oil+and+gas