The Dark Knight - Fade to Black

[Grundbegriff]

I also worry that perhaps Remus was Batman - but not sure they would have braved that scam.

He was. I am actually Rachel.

Nicely done. Also tends to confirm (as already believed) that theohall was not Ramirez.

[stessier]

Is Confucius a role in this game?

Didn't have enough players so he was cut. Had neat, although not necessarily useful, powers.

Confucious

• Can summarize thoughts in single, sometimes complex sentences.
• Can identify the sound of one hand clapping.
• Peacemaker - can not vote for lynch and actively tries to dissuade everyone else from voting.

[Unagi]

Let's look at the Citizen angle you are talking about here...

If Lagom is Alfred:
Citizen 1: Newcastle
Citizen 2: Isgrimnur
Citizen 3: Unagi
Citizen 4: Grundbegriff | Brendan | tru1cy (one must by lying)
Citizen 5: Grundbegriff | Brendan | tru1cy (one must by lying)


If Lagom is a Liar:
Citizen 1: Isgrimnur
Citizen 2: Unagi
Citizen 3: Grundbegriff | Brendan | tru1cy
Citizen 4: Grundbegriff | Brendan | tru1cy
Citizen 5: Grundbegriff | Brendan | tru1cy


Grund, why are you discounting the "Lagom is a Liar" option?

[Brendan]

Grund, why are you discounting the "Lagom is a Liar" option?

To give the rest of us false hope that "we've won," perhaps.

There's 4 of us to off/investigate, and only 3 chances in which to do it. Grund's striving to make it back to the top of my list.

[Grundbegriff]

Grund, why are you discounting the "Lagom is a Liar" option?

As I stated with prior character rosters, I assume in them (for the sake of argument) that everything apparently true is true. The point isn't to exclude other possibilities, but to see what gaps remain and where someone might be lying if all apparent lore is good lore.

Yes, it's possible that Lagom is lying. Far from discounting it, I insisted that we bear it in mind.

[Brendan]

Yes, it's possible that Lagom is lying. Far from discounting it, I insisted that we bear it in mind.

Since we have more than two turns to work it out, we've won.

[Unagi]

Grund, why are you discounting the "Lagom is a Liar" option?

As I stated with prior character rosters, I assume in them (for the sake of argument) that everything apparently true is true. The point isn't to exclude other possibilities, but to see what gaps remain and where someone might be lying if all apparent lore is good lore.

Yes, it's possible that Lagom is lying. Far from discounting it, I insisted that we bear it in mind.

I've been here - I know what you've said. You then moved onto the "We've won!" post.

I found it a little odd, because - as you have said - Lagom isn't really any different then, say - you or Brendan... but you say "we've one", based on a list of claimed citizens.

So, are you saying "we've won, but no - not really... just kidding" ?

[Grundbegriff]

That said, here's why I tend against thinking Lagom guilty.

First, the optimum approach for Evil is to kill people off in order of trustedness, so that a wash of untrustedness engulfs the final day(s). In view of this, hiding by emulating an uncontested Special isn't exactly a recipe for survival.

Come the final day, a living Lagom who claims Alfreditude would have some splainin' to do.

Note-- this isn't a matter of deductive certainty. It's possible that Last Badguy Standing would leave an uncontested Special alive until the end precisely so that he could point out how unlikely it is that an uncontested Special would survive. Laying the groundwork to frame someone is a viable option.

No, this is a matter of probabilities. Yes, it's possible that the Evildoer who remains has thought through the endgame in enough depth to decide that the fight over "Why Are You Still Alive" is one he'd welcome. But odds are against it. If Lagom is evil, I'd expect him to hide among the Citizens. The fact that all other suspects now find themselves in that pool confirms this expectation.

So if Lagom is the baddie, then a kudos to him for excelling at Evil yet again. But I'm inclined to think he's what he says he is.

[Grundbegriff]

I found it a little odd, because - as you have said - Lagom isn't really any different then, say - you or Brendan... but you say "we've one", based on a list of claimed citizens.

Oh, but he is different. See above. The fact that he's an uncontested claimant to Alfreditude colors the thesis that he's someone angling to survive all the way to the end.

[Unagi]

For many of those reasons, I have also tended toward Lagom being who he says. I certainly haven't moved so far as to feel that we've won.

[Grundbegriff]

For many of those reasons, I have also tended toward Lagom being who he says. I certainly haven't moved so far as to feel that we've won.

Oddly enough, this is yet another of those scenarios in which the optimum play for the Evildoer would be to keep alive anyone that people would hate to see in the final trio. In a previous game, I offered myself as a daytime victim (even though I was good) a step before that point so that the goods in the final trio wouldn't have their paranoia about me clouding their judgment.

We're moving toward that scenario again, now that there's only one evil. Keeping me alive is a good tactic for a solo evil, since it improves his odds in the final trio. So I don't expect to die by night. (I assume the trusteds are the primary targets, so that would be Lassr and Scoop and Unagi).

We're at 7 right now. Then there are 5. Then there are 3.

If we don't hit Evil at 7, then killing me at 5 even though I'm innocent is what's best for the team. So I propose that we try to hit him today. But if we miss, I strongly recommend that anyone who agrees with this rationale commit to killing me by day tomorrow.

In fact, a pact to kill me tomorrow if we miss today is probably something we should do overtly, since it will prevent deviation from the plan tomorrow (if tomorrow comes).

[Brendan]

I find Grund's reasoning preposterous - both self-serving and misleading. I would not argue that "we've won" under any circumstances.

Clearly the remaining baddie will kill the "knowns" in order - either Lassr or Scoop, followed by the other, though one has to account for the bad guy trying to dissuade/encourage particular lines of thought by who they kill and in which order.

With consecutive misses, the final 3 person roster would likely be Unagi + Lagom + tru1cy/me/Grund. Then it's a coin toss (no Dent reference intended) to decide the winner.

Grund's my primary candidate for today.

[Grundbegriff]

I find Grund's reasoning preposterous - both self-serving and misleading.

Sacrificing myself for my team is self-serving and misleading?

The fact that you think this makes it seem as if testing you is a higher priority than testing tru1cy.

I propose this test sequence: (1) Brendan, (2) Grundbegriff, (3) tru1cy. That gives the game to Lagom if he's truly evil.

Clearly the remaining baddie will kill the "knowns" in order - either Lassr or Scoop, followed by the other, though one has to account for the bad guy trying to dissuade/encourage particular lines of thought by who they kill and in which order.

Unagi is effectively trusted, too. In fact, he's someone more trustworthy than Scoop, isn't he? Or did I miss active confirmation of Scoop?

Grund's my primary candidate for today.

Killing me today is a silly move, since I'm a Citizen and we have a prospect of actually winning today if we look elsewhere.

Killing me tomorrow (and no later) would be an excellent move regardless of any variables, for the reason given above.

[Brendan]

I find Grund's reasoning preposterous - both self-serving and misleading.

Sacrificing myself for my team is self-serving and misleading?

The fact that you think this makes it seem as if testing you is a higher priority than testing tru1cy.

My post referred to your earlier post - as I was authoring, you wrote Yet Another Post in which you discuss self-sacrifice. I don't see why killing you tomorrow is a better plan than killing you today.

[Lassr]

I propose this test sequence: (1) Brendan, (2) Grundbegriff, (3) tru1cy. That gives the game to Lagom if he's truly evil.

I can go with this scenario. If it is Lagom then Bravo to him. I think it would mean Newcastle was probably Alfred if Lagom is faking.

I keep flipping back and forth on you Grund and I'm willing to let you live one more day to test Brendan. But I cannot let you live to the end, sorry, that's just the way it is in these games.

 Brendan 
 

if you are not evil, you will not die in vain, any info gained is good info.

[Grundbegriff]

My post referred to your earlier post - as I was authoring, you wrote Yet Another Post in which you discuss self-sacrifice.

Ah

I don't see why killing you tomorrow is a better plan than killing you today.

There are, broadly speaking, two approaches to the early and middle game:
(a) Let someone good whose death won't hamper the team step forward and volunteer, so that we don't accidentally kill or out a Special.
(b) Always try to hit a baddie, even at the risk of killing or (more likely) outing a Special, and make fun of people who endorse (a).

Needless to say, I'm an advocate of (b).

The question arises: if (b) is the default move, when is it appropriate to override (b)?

I can think of two general cases where it's good to override (b).
(1) We have a concrete reason to think that Bubba is a simple villager, Bubba is AWOL, and his absence is causing confusion.
(2) We have a better, preemptive play.

Both (1) and (2) are rare. In general, (b) is always the best play. But once, despite the fact that it was objectively harmful on the math side, we offed someone (pr0ner?) whose absence was sowing discord. And at least once, as mentioned above, I've called for my own elimination to clarify the situation for my team.

Right now, neither (1) nor (2) is called for. So (as is normal) the best play is (b).

Naturally, if you're inclined to suspect me for concrete reasons and to think that offing me is a way of fulfilling (b), then you'll also be inclined to maintain that there's no reason to wait till tomorrow. But I'm not going to argue that way, because I know I'm a Citizen.

[Grundbegriff]

I keep flipping back and forth on you Grund and I'm willing to let you live one more day to test Brendan. But I cannot let you live to the end, sorry, that's just the way it is in these games.

That's fine with me. The primary objective is to win, and my death tomorrow (if Brendan is good) will support that objective.

 Brendan 
 

[Lagom Lite]

Scan is in - Mr Bubbles was The Joker.

If theohall was indeed the Sniper, that means we have ourselves a corrupt cop to hunt. She can scan the dead, as I (unless I am her ), but otherwise it doesn't really matter.

I agree on lynching Brendan, Grund and tru1cy in any order.

My internet is spotty, but I'll try my best to mix you some drinks... Would that be all?

[Brendan]

Naturally, if you're inclined to suspect me for concrete reasons and to think that offing me is a way of fulfilling (b), then you'll also be inclined to maintain that there's no reason to wait till tomorrow. But I'm not going to argue that way, because I know I'm a Citizen.

I've given plenty of concrete reasons why you're the best candidate today. Your public statements have been, variously, often erroneous or misleading. Your conclusions ("we've won"!) are factually false. You didn't participate in either of the lynches that netted bad guys.

I know one fact - that I'm a citizen. If the net impact of this kerfuffle is that we kill you, me, and tru1cy in whichever order, then I'm fine with that outcome. Naturally, I'd prefer to stick around offering my apparently-banal observations, but hey, so be it.

[Brendan]

Of course, I'd almost rather test Lagom Lite just to be sure.

[Lagom Lite]

 Brendan 
 


I still think it's tru1cy, for the record. But I'm never right about these things.

[Brendan]

I'll store this game away in my memory banks as a new trick of Grund's. If he's evil, it'll have been a masterful stroke of "Wait - not me just yet; let's see how things go tomorrow."

If he's good, though, clearly he'll need to learn to read me better.

[Grundbegriff]

If theohall was indeed the Sniper, that means we have ourselves a corrupt cop to hunt. She can scan the dead, as I (unless I am her ), but otherwise it doesn't really matter.

If you're evil, then that's beautiful. And if you're the Joker, even more so!

However, my gut tells me Brendan's Ramirez.

[Grundbegriff]

If he's good, though, clearly he'll need to learn to read me better.

Possibly so. I hope that means you'll play more often!

Besides, no solo evildoer ever flies through multiple rounds to prevail in the final trio. The "Not me! Not yet!" would never work.

[Brendan]

Besides, no solo evildoer ever flies through multiple rounds to prevail in the final trio. The "Not me! Not yet!" would never work.

Would you like me to place the final vote on myself so that we can find out?

[Unagi]

I find Grund's reasoning preposterous - both self-serving and misleading.

Sacrificing myself for my team is self-serving and misleading?

The fact that you think this makes it seem as if testing you is a higher priority than testing tru1cy.

My post referred to your earlier post - as I was authoring, you wrote Yet Another Post in which you discuss self-sacrifice. I don't see why killing you tomorrow is a better plan than killing you today.

Of course the only actual reason is so that he can claim he got you killed first. Perhaps he knows if you get him killed first - the game will be over?

Lassr, any reason we should let Grund be the winner of their little game? Why not reverse the order - did I miss some reason? I can't tell you the number of times Grund arbitrarily just decides I should die. I'd rather we test Grundbegriff now, the rest later.

 Grundbegriff 
 


Frankly, Grund has been "blowing it" constantly this game - and I don't just mean 'not finding wolves', I mean he's not paying attention - he's not really helping. Grund, just now considers Scoops claim?

Also, like Lagom - I lean toward tru1cy as well. But of these two (B/G), let's drop worm-tounge.


Lassr? Lagom ? tru1cy?

[Grundbegriff]

Besides, no solo evildoer ever flies through multiple rounds to prevail in the final trio. The "Not me! Not yet!" would never work.

Would you like me to place the final vote on myself so that we can find out?

Whatever froths your Gotham.

[Brendan]

Let's give tru1cy something to do, although I'm pretty sure of the outcome of this one.

 Grundbegriff 
 

[Grundbegriff]

Frankly, Grund has been "blowing it" constantly this game - and I don't just mean 'not finding wolves', I mean he's not paying attention - he's not really helping. Grund, just now considers Scoops claim?

When I'm speed-reading, I skip his content. :/

Also, like Lagom - I lean toward tru1cy as well. But of these two (B/G), let's drop worm-tongue.

You may be right about tru1cy. We may look back on his Isgrimnur kill and regret having given him a pass. On the other hand, just as with Lagom, I don't mind seeing an evil tru1cy go the distance (although in contrast to Lagom/Alfred/Evil, the fact that he'd have done so by keeping the lowest of profiles means that he should die just shy of victory).

It would definitely be a shame to let an evil Brendan persist until the end. Can you imagine how cocky he'd be after that?

[Grundbegriff]

Let's give tru1cy something to do, although I'm pretty sure of the outcome of this one.

If tru1cy is evil, then it's hard to say what he'd do in this situation. He'd want to keep someone alive for the final trio who might not vote against him. But which of us would that be?

[Lassr]

Lassr, any reason we should let Grund be the winner of their little game? Why not reverse the order - did I miss some reason? I can't tell you the number of times Grund arbitrarily just decides I should die. I'd rather we test Grundbegriff now, the rest later.

No reason. Grund dies today or tomorrow. As I said, I'm willing to let Lagom win if he is evil.

You know what,
 Grundbegriff 
 

I'll go this route. He has missed a lot in this game so maybe it is better for him not to be around tomorrow in case he somehow talks others into not killing him. He would get my vote tomorrow, but I can't be sure about the others voting for him.

[Unagi]

Lassr and Lagom,

Let's switch to Mr G?

Can you imagine how cocky he'd be after that?

Damn, you are right - we really should lynch him first then... not tomorrow.

Let's give tru1cy something to do, although I'm pretty sure of the outcome of this one.
 Grundbegriff 
 

If tru1cy is evil, then it's hard to say what he'd do in this situation. He'd want to keep someone alive for the final trio who might not vote against him. But which of us would that be?

Brendan seems to think the game will go on, after Brendan is dead - you do too Grund.

[Grundbegriff]

• Scoop20906 acc Grundbegriff(1)
• Lassr acc Brendan(1)
• Grundbegriff acc Brendan(2)
• Lagom Lite acc Brendan(3)
• Brendan acc Grundbegriff(2)
• Unagi acc Grundbegriff(3)
• Lassr acc Grundbegriff(4), killing him

Against Brendan(2): Grundbegriff, Lagom Lite
Against Grundbegriff(4): Scoop20906, Brendan, Unagi, Lassr

Votes required for offage: 4

No vote registered: tru1cy

[Grundbegriff]

Brendan seems to think the game will go on, after Brendan is dead - you do too Grund.

Hmmm.

Maybe it is tru1cy.

[Grundbegriff]

I'll go this route. He has missed a lot in this game so maybe it is better for him not to be around tomorrow in case he somehow talks others into not killing him. He would get my vote tomorrow, but I can't be sure about the others voting for him.

That's why I proposed a pact-- to preempt the possibility that I'd be able to do that.

[Lassr]

Brendan seems to think the game will go on, after Brendan is dead - you do too Grund.

Hmmm.

Maybe it is tru1cy.

that would not shock me.

[Lassr]

I'll go this route. He has missed a lot in this game so maybe it is better for him not to be around tomorrow in case he somehow talks others into not killing him. He would get my vote tomorrow, but I can't be sure about the others voting for him.

That's why I proposed a pact-- to preempt the possibility that I'd be able to do that.

I know, I can also see you saying tomorrow, "Well, it has to be tru1cy. Would I propose that pact if I was truly evil. So we can win this now or tomorrow."

[Grundbegriff]

Brendan now is similar to early Unagi: pushy when wrong, and therefore hard to read since wrong-pushy looks a lot like evil/manipulative.

So I'm torn over the idea that Brendan is serious that I'm misreading him. All along, I've felt he was evil and he I. Hilarious if we're both mistaken.

tru1cy volunteered to die as an innocent (when none was called for). He then voted against himself (IIRC), which is totally in character.

He then took out Isgrimnur when the vote had them both on the precipice. When has good tru1cy ever done such a thing?

[Grundbegriff]

I'll go this route. He has missed a lot in this game so maybe it is better for him not to be around tomorrow in case he somehow talks others into not killing him. He would get my vote tomorrow, but I can't be sure about the others voting for him.

That's why I proposed a pact-- to preempt the possibility that I'd be able to do that.

I know, I can also see you saying tomorrow, "Well, it has to be tru1cy. Would I propose that pact if I was truly evil. So we can win this now or tomorrow."

I have to acknowledge that that's more or less what I'd do if I were evil in that situation. After all, what else could I do in that case? But then, for that very reason, I wouldn't paint myself into that corner if I were evil. Evildoers need options, not constraints.

I'm a Citizen. And I'm perfectly willing to be voted down tomorrow, because (if there's a tomorrow) that's what is most conducive to our victory.

[Brendan]

Scoop voted for you on the previous page.