Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[LordMortis]

At this point how many people is he actually going to steal from Biden or any reasonably sane demorcrat? There and low information voters and there are people who didn't like Biden but were going to vote for him to keep Trump out of office right up until Jr threw his hat in the ring.

I don't see the needle caring.

[YellowKing]

I'd feel better about that if we didn't have presidential elections being decided by less than 10,000 votes.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'd feel better about that if we didn't have presidential elections being decided by less than 10,000 votes.

This is our concern, Dude.

[Holman]

One silver lining is that the Right has been putting out lots of pro-RFK propaganda for months now. His approvals are -5 for Democrats but something like +26 for Republicans. Trump has praised him directly. And there's an antivax faction on the Right that trusts RFK as a true believer (while Trump actually gave a medal to Fauci).

That's a recipe for RFK stealing votes from Republicans and from GOP-friendly independents. Now they have to start scrambling to tear him down.

Of course RFK is only in it to hurt Biden and the Dems, not to hurt Trump, so his messaging will be 100% anti-Biden.

This is gonna be weird.

[LordMortis]

And when he checks out, he'll ask his following to vote for Trump, but still I don't see him pulling votes away from Biden (or any sane democrat)

[Kraken]

Some nonzero percentage of Democrats will vote for a Kennedy. Any Kennedy. Hopefully most of them are in Massachusetts where their votes won't matter. Biden will win MA by >40%, or maybe <40% if there's a Kennedy on the ballot.

[Alefroth]

And when he checks out, he'll ask his following to vote for Trump, but still I don't see him pulling votes away from Biden (or any sane democrat)

When do you think he'll check out, and why?

[LordMortis]

And when he checks out, he'll ask his following to vote for Trump, but still I don't see him pulling votes away from Biden (or any sane democrat)

When do you think he'll check out, and why?

Just a speculation of an outcome that helps TFG.

[Defiant]

RFK Jr will get votes from Democrats + D-leaners and Republicans + R-leaners. He'll probably end up with less than 3% (A lot of people flirting with him or other third party candidates will return home after a general election full of campaigning and negative ads). While Democrats don't like him, I could easily see a few going for RFK JR and I could also see some R's doing it. I think it's up in the air as to who he pulls more from - Republicans might find his conspiracy theories appealing. Democrats, as a big tent party, tend to have a harder time being unified than Republicans, and some may want to vote for an anti-establishment alternative (and, both having been president, Biden and Trump are the establishments).

And, of course, it will vary by state (it'll likely be smaller in swing states - hopefully it's small enough that he doesn't act as spoiler).

[malchior]

Newsweek piece on the threat the MAGA threat that the FBI is tracking for 2024 elections.

It's a strange piece. It reads part sober assessment of the threat and part sympathetic to MAGA-land paranoia. Worth a read for background even if parts of it remind you that Newsweek is a bit off the rails.

Importantly we do learn that the FBI appears to be trying to take this seriously. They have their work cut out for them.

Note: I tossed up between putting this in the violent extremism and 4th estate thread but the focus is the upcoming election so think it fits best here.

The federal government believes that the threat of violence and major civil disturbances around the 2024 U.S. presidential election is so great that it has quietly created a new category of extremists that it seeks to track and counter: Donald Trump's army of MAGA followers.

The challenge for the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the primary federal agency charged with law enforcement, is to pursue and prevent what it calls domestic terrorism without direct reference to political parties or affiliations—even though the vast majority of its current "anti-government" investigations are of Trump supporters, according to classified data obtained by Newsweek.


"The FBI is in an almost impossible position," says a current FBI official, who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive internal matters. The official said that the FBI is intent on stopping domestic terrorism and any repeat of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But the Bureau must also preserve the Constitutional right of all Americans to campaign, speak freely and protest the government. By focusing on former president Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, the official said, the Bureau runs the risk of provoking the very anti-government activists that the terrorism agencies hope to counter.

...

But the FBI went further in October 2022 when it created a new subcategory—"AGAAVE-Other"—of those who were a threat but do not fit into its anarchist, militia or Sovereign Citizen groups. Introduced without any announcement, and reported here for the first time, the new classification is officially defined as "domestic violent extremists who cite anti-government or anti-authority motivations for violence or criminal activity not otherwise defined, such as individuals motivated by a desire to commit violence against those with a real or perceived association with a specific political party or faction of a specific political party."

Though Trump and MAGA are never mentioned in the official description of AGAAVE-Other, government insiders acknowledge that it applies to political violence ascribed to the former president's supporters.

"What other name could we use?" asks one FBI officer who spoke with Newsweek, and who defends what he says is merely a record-keeping change in response to Congressional pressure to track things better. "Obviously if Democratic Party supporters resort to violence, it [AGAAVE-Other] would apply to them as well. It doesn't matter that there is a low likelihood of that. So yes, in practical terms, it refers to MAGA, though the carefully constructed language is wholly nonpartisan."

In its statement to Newsweek, the FBI said that the AGAAVE threat "includes anarchist violent extremists, militia violent extremists, sovereign citizen violent extremists, and other violent extremists—some of whom are motivated by a desire to harm those with a real or perceived association with a political party or faction."

Another senior intelligence official who requested anonymity told Newsweek, "We've crossed the Rubicon." In emailed responses to questions, he said, "Trump's army constitutes the greatest threat of violence domestically...politically...that's the reality and the problem set. That's what the FBI, as a law enforcement agency, has to deal with. But whether Trump and his supporters are a threat to national security, to the country, whether they represent a threat of civil war? That's a trickier question. And that's for the country to deal with, not the FBI."

...

"This is not media hype. But it's also not easily quantifiable," the FBI official says. "Are we talking just a few thousand Proud Boy types or are we talking 30 percent of the country that are core Trump voters? Are we talking extremists bent on political violence or just a lot of disgruntled and frustrated citizens? I don't know the answer, and I can assure you the answer isn't in any secret intelligence that the government possesses."

The FBI and the other intelligence agencies responsible for domestic matters track the number of terrorist-related disruptions, arrests and investigations, based on its caseloads and its various characterizations. According to the FBI, the number of domestic terrorism-related open cases grew by 357 percent from 1,981 in fiscal year 2013 to 9,049 in fiscal year 2021, a number that has been widely quoted in the media as evidence of a widespread domestic terror threat. The FBI also says the number of FBI domestic violent extremism and domestic terrorism investigations has more than doubled since the spring of 2020—to approximately 2,700 investigations at the end of fiscal year 2022, another marker that's been widely quoted.

...

"This is not media hype. But it's also not easily quantifiable," the FBI official says. "Are we talking just a few thousand Proud Boy types or are we talking 30 percent of the country that are core Trump voters? Are we talking extremists bent on political violence or just a lot of disgruntled and frustrated citizens? I don't know the answer, and I can assure you the answer isn't in any secret intelligence that the government possesses."

The FBI and the other intelligence agencies responsible for domestic matters track the number of terrorist-related disruptions, arrests and investigations, based on its caseloads and its various characterizations. According to the FBI, the number of domestic terrorism-related open cases grew by 357 percent from 1,981 in fiscal year 2013 to 9,049 in fiscal year 2021, a number that has been widely quoted in the media as evidence of a widespread domestic terror threat. The FBI also says the number of FBI domestic violent extremism and domestic terrorism investigations has more than doubled since the spring of 2020—to approximately 2,700 investigations at the end of fiscal year 2022, another marker that's been widely quoted.

In March 2021, the review resulted in a public declaration that merely stated that domestic violent extremists posed "an elevated threat." It concluded that the most lethal threat came from two groups: racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists—specifically white supremacists—and militia violent extremists. "Our experience on the ground confirms this," Attorney General Garland said. "The number of open FBI domestic terrorism investigations this year has increased significantly."

There are some real head scratchers in the piece too like below (emphasis mine).

"It seems to me that the very word terrorism is more representative of the state of our discourse than a description of the threat," says a civilian terrorism expert who used to be a government official. "Is political violence on the rise in America? Yes, it is. But everything that is extreme is on the rise, whereas terrorism, violence intended to bring America to its knees or overthrow the state, really doesn't exist. One might not like that so many reject the current political order, but they are still trying to get their candidate elected, not pull off some coup to overthrow the government. That never happened on January 6th and despite even a president like Donald Trump, it's not possible in America."

[Holman]

It'll be grimly funny when the RFK ads are "The Dems wouldn't hold a primary!" while Trump skips the GOP primary.

[Defiant]

Meanwhile, let's take a look at third party candidate Cornel West:

[Octavious]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

[malchior]

For a guy of his intelligence...it's surprisingly incoherent. Like turning up the gain on an amp until you get distortion.

[Carpet_pissr]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

[Alefroth]

I wonder why WA is different from the other really blue states.

[stessier]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

My county said it needs $1 billion immediately just to keep the roads in their current state... More to actually make progress on renewal. The county board is entertaining a $0.01 tax dedicated to improve the roads... But most members are saying they don't think raising taxes is the right option... Without proposing another option. The report said we are the only county in the state without a tax dedicated to roads . Great place to live.

[GreenGoo]

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

The entire point of money is to use it to improve your life. It's not a goal unto itself.

I get that you can use it to generate more money, but at some point you should probably fix your leaking roof. I'm pretty stingy but I stop short of miserly. Money is a means to an end, not the end itself.

Who wants to be Smaug? He's ridiculous.

[Pyperkub]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

I'm calling bullshit on those rankings - California with the 5th largest economy on the world is ranked in the bottom half?

Uh, no.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[Alefroth]

I guess it comes down to what they mean by stable. That clearly doesn't mean a strong economy to them.

[Kraken]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

I'm calling bullshit on those rankings - California with the 5th largest economy on the world is ranked in the bottom half?

Uh, no.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

I rolled my eyes when I saw FL ranked #1 in education.

[Carpet_pissr]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

I'm calling bullshit on those rankings - California with the 5th largest economy on the world is ranked in the bottom half?

Uh, no.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

I assume size doesn't indicate stability (though to be fair, I didn't read their definition of "stability". They do have other economic rankings in there as well). You can certainly have a small, very stable economy, or a large unstable one.

[malchior]

27 dollars an hour? I mean on the plus side if then went through all the broke ass red states would collapse.

You might want to do some research on that...top 4/5 fiscally stable states are red. And the vast majority of the top 20.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -stability

I personally don't consider that a good thing (at least here) because the state is fiscally strong due to obscenely low spending in needed areas like infrastructure, education, etc. And our asshat Governor touts how fiscally strong we are at every opportunity. Great! We have a crap ton of cash, but have some of the poorest schools in the nation! Yay? Great, we have socked away a massive amount of money, but our roads are literally crumbling (and again, some of the worst in the country).

Reminds me of a buddy that works for Edward Jones as a financial consultant. He covers a rural area, and says he has quite a few literal millionaire clients who drive shitty, beat up cars, houses that look abandoned due to lack of upkeep, etc. They are adamant about not spending their hoard, even when their house needed painting 10 years ago, the roof is leaking, etc. It's absurd (IMO).

I'm calling bullshit on those rankings - California with the 5th largest economy on the world is ranked in the bottom half?

Uh, no.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

I rolled my eyes when I saw FL ranked #1 in education.

Yup. It's not even a top-10 state when you look at standardized tests. US News is mostly garbage "data" now. It has been gamed out and it has become heavily politicized. Several schools and states won't even provide them information anymore. Not that it will stop US News from then tanking their scores in an effort to try to coerce them to participate again.

There also issues with their Hospital Rankings. They publish a heavily criticized Best Hospitals list which has similar problems.

[Carpet_pissr]

Geez, was not aware! Not that I rely on them at all, or reference their data (maybe for colleges), but I won’t anymore, for sure.

It just happened to be the first “legit” site that came up in the Google results.

It DID give off a very click baity vibe, though, with cross references to wayyyy too many things…ranked, as is the wont with internet clickbait these days. “Top 20 pet hair vacuum cleaners for October 2023!!!!!”

[Blackhawk]

It DID give off a very click baity vibe, though, with cross references to wayyyy too many things…ranked, as is the won’t have internet clickbait these days. “Top 20 pet hair vacuum cleaners for October 2023!!!!!”

Listicles. The name is 'listicles', and they serve the triple purpose of drawing clicks, boosting search rankings, and serving as a collection of affiliate links (where appropriate), meaning that if anyone who buys anything off of the list, they get a cut. And half of the time the text portion of the list is just a paraphrasing of the top reviews, or even a copy-paste of the product blurb. And very few of them ever actually buy and test the products - they're really just "Top 20 Best Selling Pet Hair Vacuum Cleaners on Amazon."

Oh, and they're often written by bots/AI, who can just do automated searches on Amazon and whip out an article every few minutes.

The real problem is that if you search for reviews and/or recommendations, these are what you find. You used to find actual review sites who had personally tested the products, but listicle sites completely drown them out in the search engines.

[Carpet_pissr]

It DID give off a very click baity vibe, though, with cross references to wayyyy too many things…ranked, as is the won’t have internet clickbait these days. “Top 20 pet hair vacuum cleaners for October 2023!!!!!”

Listicles. The name is 'listicles', and they serve the triple purpose of drawing clicks, boosting search rankings, and serving as a collection of affiliate links (where appropriate), meaning that if anyone who buys anything off of the list, they get a cut. And half of the time the text portion of the list is just a paraphrasing of the top reviews, or even a copy-paste of the product blurb. And very few of them ever actually buy and test the products - they're really just "Top 20 Best Selling Pet Hair Vacuum Cleaners on Amazon."

Oh, and they're often written by bots/AI, who can just do automated searches on Amazon and whip out an article every few minutes.

The real problem is that if you search for reviews and/or recommendations, these are what you find. You used to find actual review sites who had personally tested the products, but listicle sites completely drown them out in the search engines.

Yep, it's a fairly recent (and despicable IMO) phenomenon. Particularly nasty for a reviewhead like me. They wrecked the internet with their bullshit lists. TOP TEN WAYS THE INTERNET HAS BEEN WRECKED IN OCTOBER 2023!!!

Starting to feel like the internet, at large, has turned into a massive used car lot. Well done, Capitalism, you sleazy mistress.

[Blackhawk]

Starting to feel like the internet, at large, has turned into a massive used car lot. Well done, Capitalism, you sleazy mistress.

Google is the one with the checkered tie.

[Holman]

For a guy of his intelligence...it's surprisingly incoherent. Like turning up the gain on an amp until you get distortion.

I managed author events at a indy bookstore in Ann Arbor in the late 90s. We hosted a Cornel West reading and I got to spend time with him. (It was so large that we actually held it on campus rather than at the store.)

West is a big, big personality. Charisma comes off of him in waves. But I had the sense that something was off about him. In the past I’ve described it as if somehow he cared more about the power of his words than about what they were actually saying. (For contrast, this is something that could never be said of, say, MLK jr.)

I dunno. Maybe he’s another example of the narcissism with which we’ve become so familiar in public life?

[Smoove_B]

Can't wait to see how this works out:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to announce Monday that he will drop his Democratic bid for president to run as an independent or third-party candidate, likely pitting him against President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection, and the winner of the Republican nomination. Former President Donald Trump is currently leading national and early-contest polls in the GOP race.

Kennedy's campaign has teased the announcement in the days leading up to a Monday afternoon speech in Philadelphia. In a recent video, Kennedy said there is corruption "in the leadership of both political parties" and said he wants to "rewrite the assumptions and change the habits of American politics."

The video posted soon after Mediaite reported he planned to launch an independent bid.

...

Biden's allies so far have dismissed Kennedy's primary campaign as unserious. Asked for comment on his potential independent run, a Democratic National Committee spokesman responded with an eye roll emoji.

Monday's announcement comes less than a week after the progressive activist Cornel West abandoned his Green Party bid in favor of an independent White House run. Meanwhile, the centrist group No Labels is actively securing ballot access for a yet-to-be-named candidate.

Kennedy has spent weeks accusing the DNC of "rigging" the party's primary against him and threatening that he might need to consider alternatives.

In campaign emails and videos, he blasted the DNC's decision not to host debates between Biden and other candidates and railed against the committee's plan to give South Carolina rather than Iowa or New Hampshire the leadoff spot on the primary calendar this election cycle.

[LordMortis]

Maybe he should talk TFG in to debating?

[malchior]

I'll be sure to cue up my surprised face when we find out that he is being funded by the hard right.

[Unagi]

And it wont matter, imo. Anyone who is voting for Biden is likely doing it in a hamstrung feeble attempt to keep democracy alive for one more cycle, while anyone willing to vote for Trump or FamilyNameJr are the people that are taking this country down, some knowingly - some under a spell, and they will never be people we can hope to count on.

[Smoove_B]

I'll be sure to cue up my surprised face when we find out that he is being funded by the hard right.

No doubt, but I really am curious to see how this works out because he attracts wackos from all elements of the political spectrum based on his vaccine (and now masking) position. In some communities I could totally see him pulling a significant number of both (D) and (GOP) voters that are mad at Biden or don't openly and fully agree with the white nationalist element that the current GOP is embracing more and more.

Strange, strange times.

[YellowKing]

I've read articles where the Trumpers are as terrified of him stealing votes as the Dems are. I think he's a wildcard at this point. Also still way too early to even speculate what his impact will be. Apparently there are already focused efforts on both sides to minimize him.

[Octavious]

I personally don't think it will have much impact. You do have to a massive piece of crap to even remotely risk helping Trump win.

[waitingtoconnect]

American politics is reality TV. I’m sure he will get all the airtime he wants on CNN et al for “balance”.

We just need Flavour Flav to run now and the field will be complete.

[Blackhawk]

American politics is reality TV.

Nonsense.

It's professional wrestling.

[GreenGoo]

I've read articles where the Trumpers are as terrified of him stealing votes as the Dems are. I think he's a wildcard at this point. Also still way too early to even speculate what his impact will be. Apparently there are already focused efforts on both sides to minimize him.

I've read several articles implying that the GOP have already started slinging mud at him, but I'm not sure of the extent as of yet.

[LordMortis]

This grift is not big enough for the two of us.

[Kraken]

The Boston Globe never misses a chance to run a Kennedy headline. Republicans turn on RFK Jr.

The Republican National Committee greeted his announcement with a press release that described Kennedy as “just another radical, far-left Democrat,” with several talking points that could be used by the expansive network of conservative commentators who tend to take messaging cues from the party.

“Make no mistake — a Democrat in Independent’s clothing is still a Democrat. RFK Jr. cannot hide from his record of endorsing Hillary, supporting the Green New Deal, fighting against the Keystone Pipeline, and praising AOC’s tax hikes — he is your typical elitist liberal and voters won’t be fooled,” RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement.

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for former president Donald Trump’s campaign, echoed the condemnation. “Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values,” Cheung said, in a statement. “[An] RFK candidacy is nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy to cash in on his family’s name.”
...
The attacks came as Democrats remained largely silent on Kennedy's shift, reflecting a relative optimism among the party's top strategists that Kennedy poses little threat to Biden as an independent candidate. Kennedy's polling in the Democratic nomination fight had fallen in recent months, and current national polling shows higher approval ratings for Kennedy among Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Seems realistic. RFK appeals to the lunatic fringe in both parties. Which party has more lunatics?