Octopus Overlords

Kurth wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:36 pm This morning’s newsletter from the NYT, “What Iran Wants,” provides some analysis on the motivations and results of Iran’s proxy wars: Spoiler - Iran is winning.

Iran has emerged as the chief architect in multiple conflicts strafing the Middle East, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

It trained and helped arm the Iraqi militias that killed three U.S. service members with a drone in Jordan this weekend. It supplied Hamas and Hezbollah in their clashes with Israel. It launched missiles at anti-Iranian militants inside Pakistan in response to the bombing of a local police station in December. And it has helped Houthi warriors in Yemen attack container ships in the Red Sea to protest the war in Gaza. All of which, taken together, threaten a wider war . . .

To achieve regional hegemony and safeguard its theocracy, Iran has responded on three fronts: military, diplomatic and economic. Those efforts have become more assertive in the past year, especially since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas.

Militarily, Iran’s government wants to project strength without drawing fire on its own territory, which could jeopardize its already tenuous popular support. Its strategy has been to build up regional proxy forces so that it rarely launches attacks from its own soil.

Those forces include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and a handful of Shiite militias in Iraq. Each has its own goals, but all are in agreement with Iran about combating Western troops in the region and diminishing Israel’s standing. The United States designates each of them as a foreign terrorist organization. Since the October attack on Israel, these groups have targeted Israel’s northern front, U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria, U.S. warships and international cargo ships in the Red Sea . . .

Iran’s foreign policy is designed to try to reverse its image as an isolated nation — particularly after the U.S. intensified sanctions in 2018. Even before Oct. 7, it was cultivating its Arab neighbors as well as Russia and China. Early in 2023, for the first time in decades, Iran normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, repairing a rift between the two countries in a deal brokered by China . . .

Economically, Iran has had far more limited success dodging U.S. sanctions, leaving many Iranians poorer and more resentful of the government. The regime faced widespread protests in 2022 and 2023 over hijab mandates, and the nation’s supreme leader has been urging women to vote in upcoming elections, signaling his concern that the government has antagonized them . . .

“There’s a good case to be made that Iran is a major winner from this conflict,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, a political scientist at the Burkle Center for International Relations at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The war is in many ways boosting Iranians’ domestic, regional and global situation.”

She added, “So far, Iran has been able to gain all these benefits without paying direct costs.”

The Biden administration needs to find a way to end this. Iran cannot be allowed to sit back and direct its proxies to wreak havoc in the Middle East and threaten U.S. interests and regional stability. We need to act decisively to send a message to Tehran that it’s going to start paying some “direct costs” and that those costs will increase significantly the longer Iran continues to play this proxy game.

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 2:19 pm I know that there has been a lot of unrest in Iran surrounding the religious extremism of the government, but does that equate to a taste for democracy? Or a favorable impression of America? That's an honest question. I don't know.

Also, put aside the current situation in Israel in discussing this. I'm sure our support for Israel is not helping our standing any.

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:41 pm Iranian proxies killed 3 Americans and wounded 40. That requires a response.

Sure, it's probably expensive, but the precision nature of the weapons also sends a message (both to Tehran and to the wider world, given events in Gaza).

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:45 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:41 pm Iranian proxies killed 3 Americans and wounded 40. That requires a response.

Sure, it's probably expensive, but the precision nature of the weapons also sends a message (both to Tehran and to the wider world, given events in Gaza).

I was talking about the toothless strike in 2017. This one sounds like it was more effective.

"No survivors" were found at the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian state news agency IRINN and semi-official news agency Mehr News reported.

Some background: A former hardline judiciary chief, Raisi was Iran’s eighth president. The former prosecutor and judge was elected in 2021 following a historically uncompetitive presidential contest.

He oversaw a period of intensified repression of dissent, according to human rights monitors.

Next in the line of succession would be First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, if approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's Supreme Leader serves as the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic, dwarfing the powers of the country's president.

Unlike his predecessor, the moderate former President Hassan Rouhani, Raisi had fostered a close alliance with Khamenei. Many Iranians believed Raisi was being groomed to one day succeed the ailing 85-year-old Khamenei.

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 1:59 am Dude's been declared dead after hitting a mountain that Israel erected.

Max Peck wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 7:03 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 1:59 am Dude's been declared dead after hitting a mountain that Israel erected.

It isn't like there aren't ways to bring down a helicopter that don't involve erecting a mountain.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 2:04 am Apparently the guy was a frontrunner to succeed the current Supreme Leader. His death paves the way for the current son of the Supreme Leader to take over instead.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 10:11 am He should have listened to Ahnold.

Get me out of this chappa!

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 10:43 am

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 10:18 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 2:04 am Apparently the guy was a frontrunner to succeed the current Supreme Leader. His death paves the way for the current son of the Supreme Leader to take over instead.

Well now, that's a piece of info I wasn't aware of...and that makes this a bit, shall we say...




Suspicious!

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:04 am
That's what the NYT article on this said, at least. A lot of people seem to be assuming Israeli involvement ("Mossad" was trending on Twitter yesterday, which is always delightful), but this seems like an insane risk for Israel to take without much in the way of obvious benefits (not like the next guy is going to be super pro-Israel or something). Domestic assassination seems more likely if this wasn't an accident.

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:04 am And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

Henry's plane had been shot down over the Sea of Japan

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:38 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:04 am
That's what the NYT article on this said, at least. A lot of people seem to be assuming Israeli involvement ("Mossad" was trending on Twitter yesterday, which is always delightful), but this seems like an insane risk for Israel to take without much in the way of obvious benefits (not like the next guy is going to be super pro-Israel or something). Domestic assassination seems more likely if this wasn't an accident.

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

the trick is whether someone makes a play for power/war by claiming it was assassination to justify other acts. To a certain degree, it doesn't matter if it was an accident if someone is vested enough in pinning it on someone, either Iranian or Israeli, or even other.

And there will probably be the usual (types of) groups who claim responsibility, just for the visibility.

E.G. Imagine what Trump would be doing, with the aid of Fox, et al, if Alito died in a Helicopter crash.

Scraper wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:17 am Flying Helicopters in bad weather and fog is never a good idea. Just ask Koby Bryant.

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 11:38 am if Alito died in a Helicopter crash.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 9:51 pm Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 9:51 pm Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

Max Peck wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 11:26 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 9:51 pm Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

On the up side, that is probably the best maintained helicopter on the planet.