Octopus Overlords

Good morning!

  El Guapo  
 




He's overdue for an evil role. I think. I don't know.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:51 am  RMC 
 


Due to his long history of devilry.

Hey! You are a new one to pick on me!
But I resemble that remark.

I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.

That’s some real good fan fiction, bb2112.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:48 pm I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.

Well, if we start at night we go into the first day with no real info anyway which means it still feels random. (Unless a seer come out with a great scan, which I dont think happens unless they are close to getting lynched. We dont really get any other info by starting at night)

Absolutely, I agree.

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

One day?

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:26 pm

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

One day?

I'm still me...I think, or am I?

Lassr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:34 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:26 pm

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

One day?

I'm still me...I think, or am I?

Attack of the clones?

 RMC 
 


he made a post without voting for Remus. Very strange behavior.

I think it's Moliere and Scoop.

 Moliere 
 

Lassr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:42 am  RMC 
 


he made a post without voting for Remus. Very strange behavior.

Oh dear god, you saw through my plot to frame Remus, by not voting for him with my first post.

With that said.   Remus West  
 

 Unagi 
 


If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:51 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:48 pm I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.

Well, if we start at night we go into the first day with no real info anyway which means it still feels random. (Unless a seer come out with a great scan, which I dont think happens unless they are close to getting lynched. We dont really get any other info by starting at night)

well a night start gives the seer a scan so when we eventually reveal him on day one he has info to disperse. Plus you have the night kill which could provide some info.

I kinda like a night start even if it's a bit "gimmicky" since someone dies without any input at all. But it sure changes the dynamic of the first day.

I like a night start since (unless the wolves get stupid lucky and kill the seer) there's at least some data available to someone during the first vote.

  punisher  
 


Yup!

Hmm I are we killing by seniority ? I wouldn't go first if we do that !

Wait... SHIT.

Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am  Unagi 
 


If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.

The theory that wolves are "afraid of me" is not found to be an actual thing.

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:11 pm The theory that wolves are "afraid of me" is not found to be an actual thing.

That's true, I fear you and I'm no wolf.

 Scoop 
 


just because he's quiet which is un-Scoop-Like.

This unscoop like behavior seems sinister... Or maybe he is beging Regal...Like an Emperor... !!!!

Therefore he is a Duck!!!

Are there Sith ducks?

Vorret wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 am Are there Sith ducks?

Well I'm convinced.

  Scoop  
 

Vorret wrote:Well I'm convinced.

  Scoop  
 

No way am I a senior!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am  Unagi 
 


If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.

So you agree that Unagi would be a likely choice for the Count but find it better to lynch elsewhere. I see.

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:09 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am  Unagi 
 


If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.

So you agree that Unagi would be a likely choice for the Count but find it better to lynch elsewhere. I see.

I am always reluctant to lynch Unagi early (when there is little information) because he's so good at wolf hunting, so I don't want to throw that away unless and until there's firm suspicion of wolfiness.

I agree with your point that the odds of Unagi being a wolf are probably higher than the odds would be if the wolves were assigned purely by RNG.

However, it's still pretty speculative - without knowing *who* is picking (who the alpha is), going by who an unknown person might be inclined to pick, I'm not sure the "who would get picked?" is *all that* probative. Like last game the Alpha picked by RNG, right? So I'm not sure the value of that is enough to support lynching Unagi on day 1.

I wasn't talking about "who was Alpha" though. I was simply speculating that Unagi would be a popular Count pick - regardless of who Alpha is - due to his ability to find wolves. Lets say that half the players, if picked as Alpha would pick Unagi as Count and the other half would pick Count by RNG.

Just from the first assumption that half the people would choose him he has better than 50/50 odds of being bad (6/11 in fact). Add in the chance to get randomly chosen and the odds he is bad go up.

All of which discounts people intentionally bucking the trend and not picking him simply because he would be likely to be picked etc. Still, it remains that of all the players he has the highest odds of being a bad guy.

Kill the Alts!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:24 pm I wasn't talking about "who was Alpha" though. I was simply speculating that Unagi would be a popular Count pick - regardless of who Alpha is - due to his ability to find wolves. Lets say that half the players, if picked as Alpha would pick Unagi as Count and the other half would pick Count by RNG.

Just from the first assumption that half the people would choose him he has better than 50/50 odds of being bad (6/11 in fact). Add in the chance to get randomly chosen and the odds he is bad go up.

All of which discounts people intentionally bucking the trend and not picking him simply because he would be likely to be picked etc. Still, it remains that of all the players he has the highest odds of being a bad guy.

I just figure that the partner-picking methodology would vary a lot between different alphas. Like, some might do RNG, some might pick someone who is a great wolf-hunter, some might pick someone who is less likely to be lynched, some might pick someone with a specific in-thread wolf dynamic in mind, someone might pick a partner for the LOLs. And there's the whole "game of wits with a Sicilian with death on the line" factor thrown in, where you want to pick someone who you think everyone else thinks won't be picked.

All that is to say, Unagi probably has an elevated chance of being picked (though I'm not sure I would agree that it's the *highest* chance). But then I also assign players as being of different value to the village (if good), and Unagi has one of the highest values.

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:31 pm Kill the Alts!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Alt Lives Matter!