Octopus Overlords

The Ontario Science Table did review the sensitivity of rapid tests against the Delta and Omicron variants and found, in unpublished studies, that the sensitivity against Omicron was clearly lower than it was for Delta. Its analysis suggested that the sensitivity of rapid tests to detect the Omicron variant was 37 percent, compared to 81 percent for Delta. In effect, this means that if 100 people had COVID and were infected with the Omicron variant, only 37 of them would get a positive result and the others would get a falsely negative result.

On the surface, this would seem concerning and would likely explain why many people have reported testing negative at first only to then be diagnosed with COVID-19 a few days later. But, it’s important to point out the test sensitivity does vary between studies and another unpublished study not included in that review found that the sensitivity of the tests with respect to Omicron ranged between 65 and 95 percent in the different patient populations. Also, while test sensitivity was low overall, it was over 80 percent after Day 3 of the infection and improved considerably with repeat testing.

Whether the genetic changes in new variants are having an impact on test accuracy is not entirely clear. Part of the problem is that the predictive value of test changes as disease prevalence changes. As diseases become more common, the relative number of true positives vs. false positives shifts and we get fewer false positives but consequently more false negatives. So as COVID cases surge, we must expect more false negatives, for purely mathematical reasons.

The solution, though, is clear. If you think you have COVID and test negative, you need to test again.

Moderna’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine that combines its original shot with protection against the omicron variant appears to work, the company announced Wednesday.

COVID-19 vaccine makers are studying updated boosters that might be offered in the fall to better protect people against future coronavirus surges.

Moderna’s preliminary study results show people given the combination shot experienced an eight-fold increase in virus-fighting antibodies capable of targeting the omicron mutant, the company announced.

...

So U.S. regulators, and the World Health Organization, are considering whether to order a change in the vaccine recipe for a new round of booster shots in the fall — when cold weather and kids returning to school are expected to drive yet another surge.

Key questions: How to make that change without losing the continued strong protection against COVID-19′s worst outcomes? And what’s the right variant to target? After the huge winter omicron surge, that mutant’s genetically distinct siblings now are the main threats, including one that’s fueling the current U.S. wave of infections.

The Food and Drug Administration has set a meeting in late June for its scientific advisers to debate those questions and evaluate data from vaccine makers’ tests of potential new formulas. Pfizer also is studying a combination shot, what scientists call a bivalent vaccine.

The study was performed in 437 people, and safety was similar to today’s boosters, Moderna said. The results were announced in a press release and haven’t undergone scientific review.

Large studies in the U.S., Mexico and Britain found two doses of the Novavax vaccine were safe and about 90% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19. One complication: Those studies were done far earlier in the pandemic.

Novavax chief medical officer Dr. Filip Dubovsky said tests of a booster dose revved up virus-fighting antibodies that could tackle the omicron mutant, data that FDA will have to consider later.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:27 am Some good news on the potential updated booster from Moderna:

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:45 am I'm all for this, but I'm starting to get vibes similar to the under-5 approval process here. Seems like go time is now on this. Hopefully I'm simply ignorant, and it'll be possible to go from studying the new booster to poking hundreds of millions of arms in a very short amount of time.

stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:04 amI will get a booster when it is offered. My last shot was November and I'm feeling a bit naked.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:20 am

stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:04 amI will get a booster when it is offered. My last shot was November and I'm feeling a bit naked.

I am the same. Not enjoying it.

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:11 pm Since finding out people can get paralyzed from this shot Im in no hurry for a 5th shot any longer.

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:11 pm Since finding out people can get paralyzed from this shot Im in no hurry for a 5th shot any longer.

AWS260 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:42 pm I am still in the bloom of youth, alas. (46)

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:41 pm Are you people not over 50 yet? Or just not far enough away from the first booster?

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 2:42 pm 49 and change.

The government allowed pharmacies and states to start placing orders last week, with 5 million doses initially available — half of them made by Pfizer and the other half produced by Moderna, senior administration officials said.

As of this week, about 1.45 million of the 2.5 million available doses of Pfizer have been ordered, and about 850,000 of available Moderna shots have been ordered, officials said. More orders are expected in the coming days.

It’s not clear how popular the shots will be. A recent survey suggests only 1 in 5 parents of young children would get their kids vaccinated right away.

And public health officials have been disappointed at how many older U.S. children, who have been eligible for shots for months, have yet to be vaccinated: Less than one-third of kids ages 5 to 11 have gotten the two recommended doses, according to government figures.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:06 am Pharmacies are starting to gear up for the under 5 crowd:

The government allowed pharmacies and states to start placing orders last week, with 5 million doses initially available — half of them made by Pfizer and the other half produced by Moderna, senior administration officials said.

As of this week, about 1.45 million of the 2.5 million available doses of Pfizer have been ordered, and about 850,000 of available Moderna shots have been ordered, officials said. More orders are expected in the coming days.

However:

It’s not clear how popular the shots will be. A recent survey suggests only 1 in 5 parents of young children would get their kids vaccinated right away.

And public health officials have been disappointed at how many older U.S. children, who have been eligible for shots for months, have yet to be vaccinated: Less than one-third of kids ages 5 to 11 have gotten the two recommended doses, according to government figures.

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:11 pm Since finding out people can get paralyzed from this shot Im in no hurry for a 5th shot any longer.

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:41 pm Are you people not over 50 yet? Or just not far enough away from the first booster?

COVID News: FDA examiners consider Moderna and Pfizer vaccines safe & effective for kids < 5.

Approvals could come this week after a review on Wednesday.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:26 am

COVID News: FDA examiners consider Moderna and Pfizer vaccines safe & effective for kids < 5.

Approvals could come this week after a review on Wednesday.

Food and Drug Administration advisers voted Wednesday to recommend authorizing Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 5 years, clearing one of the final hurdles to getting the youngest Americans vaccinated.

The unanimous recommendation was the first of two votes called by the Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee during its Wednesday meeting.

The Food and Drug Administration on Friday authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Covid vaccines for use in children as young as 6 months of age, setting the stage for a government push to make the shots available for the youngest children.

The decision comes less than two days after a panel advising the FDA voted unanimously to recommend authorization, saying their benefits would outweigh any risks for young kids.

Before families can start to avail themselves of the vaccines, though, an advisory committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention needs to recommend the shots, too, and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky must accept the recommendation. The group meets Friday and Saturday, when the votes will be held.

The Biden administration is already prepared to roll out the vaccine. On June 9, the administration said that should the vaccines be authorized and recommended by the CDC, it would be ready with 10 million available doses, with millions more on the way.