Werewolf 101 Wednesday - Chaosrendered

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 12:52 pm

Something just isn't adding up.

Grund, do you with Semaj that one scan was you/Semaj and the other was Chaos?

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 12:58 pm

Nobody sends me messages

I----------- ain't got nobody----------

Purge

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 12:58 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Let me see if I have got this straight:

Grund claims that Chaosraven is a werewolf.
Grund claims that Semaj is clean.
Assumption: Grund is in contact with the Seer or is the Seer and Semaj was scanned and shown villager.

If Grund is the Seer, then he can know Semaj and Chaos.
If Grund is in contact with the Seer, then the only way to know Chaos and Semaj is if Semaj is the Seer. Anything else would mean that the Seer contacted Grund with no knowledge of what Grund was. Seems unlikely.

Semaj states he KNOWS Chaosraven is a wolf. (Know implies being the Seer)

That is part of the oddity. The other part is that Semaj's name was nowhere in sight until he brought it up. It doesn't make any sense at all why he would come forward like that.

Another part is that Chaos just happens to be a wolf and just happened to be tweaking Grund and Semaj. So Semaj was misunderstanding Chaos and feeling some pressure, Grund comes out and accuses Chaos of wolfitude, and then Semaj comes out and back him up. It seems a little too neat.

Oh, and you left out the part where I claim to be in contact with a "Seer" and that none of my claims match any part of the Chaos/Semaj/Grund Triumvirate of Confusion.

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:04 pm

You have mail.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:14 pm

Stess: this is what I think is going on:

Frankly, I am having trouble following the posts. The posts are so unorganized that they are hard to read. Semaj's post are that way cause he is drunk. Chaos and Grund I believe are doing it on purpose.

Also, I think Stessier's posts have been a bit confusing.

I think Grund is doing his normal bombast against an innocent Chaosraven. In fact, they might have planned this out all along.

Grund vouching for Semaj could just be a method to gain his trust for some odd reason. Semaj makes little to no sense.

As usual Kraegor makes the most sense but only by picking apart other people's posts which is a safe hiding place as well.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:31 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Also, I think Stessier's posts have been a bit confusing.

They probably made sense to the wolves.

I've thought about this every which way I can. I still don't get the Semaj/Grund thing, but I'll leave that for y'all to sort out.

I am your Seer.

I scanned Mr Bubbles (RIP) and Kraegor...who sadly suffers from lycanthropy.

I'm dead tonight no matter what happens, so I'd prefer if you lynch Kraegor. If I happen to survive the night, I'm all yours tomorrow. But if you'd prefer proof today, who am I to stand in the way?

stessier

But this is why I was so confused. Grund and Chaos can't be scheming. Grund came right out and claimed Seer, so he wasn't trying to just confuse the issue and hide my roll. So either Grund/Semaj has to be the other Wolf. Would the duped Villager please stand up.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:33 pm

stessier wrote:Actually, I just figured out what Semaj meant. If I understand correctly, Semaj or Grund contacted the other and said Chaos was a wolf. So that would mean Semaj/Grund was the other scan.

Do I have this right?

Yes, that's right.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:35 pm

stessier wrote:Something just isn't adding up.

Grund, do you with Semaj that one scan was you/Semaj and the other was Chaos?

Yes, that's right.

mipe · Post by **mipe** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:36 pm

And that is... 4 selfvotes at this moment.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:39 pm

Stessier's Seer claim seems the most coherent and I already had my eye on Kraegor so ...

kraegor

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:40 pm

stessier wrote:I am your Seer.

I scanned Mr Bubbles (RIP) and Kraegor...who sadly suffers from lycanthropy.

I'm dead tonight no matter what happens, so I'd prefer if you lynch Kraegor. If I happen to survive the night, I'm all yours tomorrow. But if you'd prefer proof today, who am I to stand in the way?

stessier

But this is why I was so confused. Grund and Chaos can't be scheming. Grund came right out and claimed Seer, so he wasn't trying to just confuse the issue and hide my roll. So either Grund/Semaj has to be the other Wolf. Would the duped Villager please stand up.

I asked you whether you were a werewolf, stessier. Remember?

Now I'm confused, because either I'm being led up the garden path right now, or you're trying to lead me up the garden path.

We should rename this game Scoop101 (remember the case of the three Hymies in Get Smart?), because we have far too many people emulating and counter-emulating Seer for any good to come of it.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:41 pm

mipe wrote:And that is... 4 selfvotes at this moment.

I think that's a record for tru1cidal tendencies.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:43 pm

mipe acc Nobody()
Scoop20906 acc Kraegor(1)
mipe acc Kraegor(2)
Remus West acc Remus West(1)
Semaj acc Semaj(1)
Grundbegriff acc Chaosraven(1)
Semaj wd Semaj(0)
Semaj acc Chaosraven(2)
Remus West wd Remus West(0)
Remus West acc Chaosraven(3)
Remus West wd Chaosraven(2)
Scoop20906 wd Kraegor(1)
Scoop20906 acc Scoop20906(1)
mipe wd Kraegor(0)
mipe acc mipe(1)
purge acc purge(1)
stessier acc stessier(1)
Scoop20906 acc Kraegor(1)

Votes required for execution: 5

Against Kraegor(1): Scoop20906
Against Chaosraven(2): Grundbegriff, Semaj
Against mipe(1): mipe
Against purge(1): purge
Against stessier(1): stessier

No vote registered: Chaosraven, Kraegor, Remus West

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:46 pm

stessier wrote:

...
Remus West acc Chaosraven(3)
Remus West wd Chaosraven(2)
...

Against Chaosraven(2): Grundbegriff, Semaj

Couple o' corrections

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:48 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Couple o' corrections

Fixed them. Thanks!

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:52 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:We should rename this game Scoop101 (remember the case of the three Hymies in Get Smart?), because we have far too many people emulating and counter-emulating Seer for any good to come of it.

SCOOP101!!! Brilliant. I'll start working on the rulez set right now!!

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:53 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Now I'm confused, because either I'm being led up the garden path right now, or you're trying to lead me up the garden path.

So you are saying Semaj is your "Seer?"

We should rename this game Scoop101 (remember the case of the three Hymies in Get Smart?)

No one who played in that game will ever forget.

because we have far too many people emulating and counter-emulating Seer for any good to come of it.

I don't see why. There are two claims that I count. Me and one of Semaj/Grund. By my count, we can actually lynch everyone and still win, even if you start with me to verify one claim. Why is that bad?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:56 pm

stessier wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Now I'm confused, because either I'm being led up the garden path right now, or you're trying to lead me up the garden path.

We should rename this game Scoop101 (remember the case of the three Hymies in Get Smart?)
No one who played in that game will ever forget.

because we have far too many people emulating and counter-emulating Seer for any good to come of it.
I don't see why. There are two claims that I count. Me and one of Semaj/Grund. By my count, we can actually lynch everyone and still win, even if you start with me to verify one claim. Why is that bad?

It's not necessarily bad, but has the potential to be quite bad. That's the funny thing about open-PM games.

For instance, suppose we burn through Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Kraegor, Semaj, stessier (in no particular order-- that's alphabetical), and there's still no wolf. We'll have been taken in by overlapping madcap schemes.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:59 pm

From where I stand, there's only one real choice: Semaj or stessier

If stessier's a wolf, then Chaosraven's the other wolf.
If Semaj's a wolf, then Chaosraven's unknown and stessier's claim is untested.
Testing stessier requires killing Kraegor, since stessier's own death would prove nothing unless he sprouted fur.

Ergo:

Test Semaj: kill Chaosraven or Semaj
Test stessier: kill Kraegor or stessier

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:59 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:For instance, suppose we burn through Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Kraegor, Semaj, stessier (in no particular order-- that's alphabetical), and there's still no wolf. We'll have been taken in by overlapping madcap schemes.

So you are the other wolf.

There is no "madcap scheme". Lynch me. I will be human. I am not fronting for a Seer, I AM the Seer. After me, lynch Kraegor. Kraegor is a wolf.

There is no reason to lynch Chaos as he is making no claim and no one has ever accused him of such. Therefore, we need only lynch the Grund/Semaj duo to find the other. I suggest starting with Semaj because of the sounds he makes when he dangles.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:02 pm

stessier wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:For instance, suppose we burn through Chaosraven, Grundbegriff, Kraegor, Semaj, stessier (in no particular order-- that's alphabetical), and there's still no wolf. We'll have been taken in by overlapping madcap schemes.
So you are the other wolf.

Nope. I'm Semaj's mouthpiece. He told me (a) that he was the Seer, (b) that he had scanned me on Sunday night, and (c) that he had scanned Chaosraven and had found him furry.

There is no "madcap scheme". Lynch me. I will be human. I am not fronting for a Seer, I AM the Seer. After me, lynch Kraegor. Kraegor is a wolf.

If you're really the Seer, why would you want your own death rather than that of your accused?

There is no reason to lynch Chaos as he is making no claim and no one has ever accused him of such. Therefore, we need only lynch the Grund/Semaj duo to find the other. I suggest starting with Semaj because of the sounds he makes when he dangles.

I think Semaj's jerking my chain. And no, my chain is not at the end of a leash.

Semaj

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:02 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Testing stessier requires killing Kraegor, since stessier's own death would prove nothing unless he sprouted fur.

This is not true. I am claiming to be the Seer, therefore my death will verify I am not lying. There will be no other Seers floating around. And Kraegor will the sprout fur and make a lovely throw rug for the Town Hall.

After that, Semaj or Grund...probably both just to be sure.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:05 pm

stessier wrote:This is not true. I am claiming to be the Seer, therefore my death will verify I am not lying. There will be no other Seers floating around. And Kraegor will the sprout fur and make a lovely throw rug for the Town Hall.

You know better than to think that innocent Villagers never lie. Hence the Scoop/Hymie reference.

I see what you're saying, but I think it makes more sense to kill your accused Wolf before killing you if we're at all inclined to think you're being honest.

What gives you the edge over Semaj in my eyes is that you didn't seek a mouthpiece-- unless, of course, you are a mouthpiece even though you deny fronting. But that's impenetrable.

After that, Semaj or Grund...probably both just to be sure.

Are you quite sure you're not a werewolf?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:09 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:What gives you the edge over Semaj in my eyes is that you didn't seek a mouthpiece-- unless, of course, you are a mouthpiece even though you deny fronting.

Why vote for Semaj, then? Why not vote for Kraegor where I point?

And know this, when I die, your Seer dies. Accept no substitutes!!!

Are you quite sure you're not a werewolf?

Only one way to be sure...which brings me back to my vote.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:10 pm

ok...

I never said I was the seer to anyone.

but if me dying and being human proves Grund is a wolf, feel free to kill me. Information is key my boys. As such we have our two wolves, Grund and Kraegor.

if grund is a villager and doing this, i'm calling shenanigans on the whole game, lol.
Before I die:
7villagers-2 wolves
Now if I die:
6 villagers, 2 wolves
Night kill: (probably not stessier, heh)
5 villagers 2 wolves.
Wolf killed (Grund)
5 villagers, 1 wolf
night kill:
4 villagers 1 wolf.
Kraegor killed (To test steiss? Worst case not a wolf)
3 villagers, 1 wolf
night kill
2 Villagers, 1 wolf
Kill steiss if he is lying
2 villagers, no wolves

I cant see how we lose if we play this by the book.

Anyone see any holes in my logic?

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:56 pm

I will defer to other peoples opinions, ones not involved in the current situation. As such, let us know who you want to test first.

Also I missed one bit of math, we could test Grund to prove me

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:03 pm

withdrawal Kraegor

I'd like to hear what Kraegor has to say about Stessier's claim that he is the Seer and Kraegor is a wolf.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:07 pm

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:23 pm

stessier wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:What gives you the edge over Semaj in my eyes is that you didn't seek a mouthpiece-- unless, of course, you are a mouthpiece even though you deny fronting.
Why vote for Semaj, then? Why not vote for Kraegor where I point?

From a logical standpoint, it's an either/or scenario. I pointed out right here that it's six of one, and half a dozen of the other.

My preference for testing Semaj comes from my profound irritation at the possibility that I might've been duped.

And know this, when I die, your Seer dies. Accept no substitutes!!!

Are you quite sure you're not a werewolf?
Only one way to be sure...which brings me back to my vote.

You certainly have a death wish. Is it a double blind intended to cause us to invest our trust in you? "He's willing to bite it, so he must be innocent!"

You don't usually have such a flair for drama. Do you?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:28 pm

Frankly, Kraegor's interpretation means nothing. Either we have the Seer in stessier and both wolves in the set of Kraegor and Semaj/Grundbegriff or we have both wolves in the set of Chaosraven and stessier since stessier claims Seer and is contested by the pairing of Semaj/Grundbegriff while each "Seer" claims a wolf scan. Of the two "seer"s I believe stessier's claim more. We learn where our two wolves are by either killing Kraegor or killing Chaosraven.

Kraegor

If he sprouts fur then we kill Semaj/Grundbegriff. If he does not sprout fur then we kill stessier and Chaosraven. Game over.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:29 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:My preference for testing Semaj comes from my profound irritation at the possibility that I might've been duped.

You certainly have a death wish. Is it a double blind intended to cause us to invest our trust in you? "He's willing to bite it, so he must be innocent!"

You don't usually have such a flair for drama. Do you?

And you usually don't have such petty emotions. Normally you see the logic of the situation and pounce. Logic should tell you to test Chaos or Kraegor, not Semaj no matter how you feel about his claim.

As for my flair for drama...surely you jest. I live for my 15 minutes of fame!!

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:34 pm

Grundbegriff, killing Semaj might tell you something but it tells the rest of the village nothing. Pushing for a lynch of Semaj at this point is pushing for greater confusion. As I said above, we have the wolves in two small sets. Lets say we lynch Semaj and he is human. The following day both Chaosraven and stessier will argue that you were the real wolf (Semaj is selling this idea in PM anyway so it is not a huge leap). Lets say we lynch you. Same arguement with different names. Gets us nowhere. Now then, suppose we lynch one of the two people who are being pointed to as wolves by "seer" scan. That tells us something. It is also interesting that, rather than stand by your "seer" Semaj and push to lynch his wolf (Chaosraven), you turn on him and try to get him lynched. Why would you want to lynch a potential Seer rather than test them by their scan? We have plenty of time to do this in, not like this is the game breaking/making lynch.

Given his current behavior, my money is on Kraegor and Grundbegriff as the furry fiends.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:35 pm

Like I said in that Pm Grund, if you were a wolf: bravo.

Shame it seems Steiss May have scanned your partner and outted you both.

At this point barring you guys pulling something out of your collective Derriers, tis all over but the tears.

Like I said, I'm willing to die to prove you a Fake Seer. Amazing how you have never once offered the same back. Instead trying to claim it was all me, duping you like the pawn you claim to be.

I _Know_ who is lying. grund.

As such it means Steiss is probably telling the truth. I however am not going to vote. I'm not going to help the bad guys out one iota. I am letting the other players decide, the people who havent claimed to be a seer or havent been involved in this at all.

Our options as I see it:
1) Kill Grund - Either me or him played the Fake Seer gambit, the other is a big fat liar, thus making it 50-50.
2) Kill Semaj - Read Above.
3) Kill Kraegor - This proves bubbles, this also proves Steisser. It also means we have to deal with #1 and #2 right after. BUt gives us a few trusteds for a night or two, which is always nice.
I am withdrawing number 4) KIll chaosraven to prove the me/grund right. It seems that the seer(grund) in this group is a heaping fat liar, as such, no need to kill Chaosraven to prove it.

Personally, I like 3 the best, cuz it means I live an extra day

.

But in all honesty we have a path, one that should lead to victory. Dont let those trying to plant doubt get us off that path. We got this one on lockdown

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:36 pm

Remus West wrote:Frankly, Kraegor's interpretation means nothing.

Unless Kraegor is the real seer. I want to hear what he has to say.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:40 pm

Remus West wrote:Frankly, Kraegor's interpretation means nothing. Either we have the Seer in stessier and both wolves in the set of Kraegor and Semaj/Grundbegriff or we have both wolves in the set of Chaosraven and stessier since stessier claims Seer and is contested by the pairing of Semaj/Grundbegriff while each "Seer" claims a wolf scan. Of the two "seer"s I believe stessier's claim more. We learn where our two wolves are by either killing Kraegor or killing Chaosraven.

Kraegor

If he sprouts fur then we kill Semaj/Grundbegriff. If he does not sprout fur then we kill stessier and Chaosraven. Game over.

Never thought of it that way.

I saw it more of a They need that extra miss of us killing chaos first and if eh is human, they have a 50-50 shot of getting another miss. Thats two of the 3 misses. It's bad odds, but before Steiss outted himself as seer, it looked to be a solid play to draw heat away from another wolf.

But kraegor looks to be a solid pick. Bravo for you.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:41 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Remus West wrote:Frankly, Kraegor's interpretation means nothing.
Unless Kraegor is the real seer. I want to hear what he has to say.

Unless one of Semaj/Grundbegriff/stessier is actually fool enough to pretend to be the Seer as an innocent villager it does not matter. If one of them is pretending and innocent then the blame lies with them. Just as your claim to be Hymie meant we were forced to lynch tru1cy because "nobody would fake that as a regular guy".

BTW, can you give me a single reason why stessier would come forward as he has done and make this claim? He was not in the spotlight. He was not on edge of being lynched? Why would a wolf come forward and make the claim he has thus making certain of his own demise?

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:33 pm

/shrug. ok, you got us. Grund's my partner. Brilliant game, village does nothing but flail about, stessier makes one scan and voila game over.

It ain't called simple 101 for nothin.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:38 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Remus West wrote:Frankly, Kraegor's interpretation means nothing.
Unless Kraegor is the real seer. I want to hear what he has to say.

I fail to see how what I say is relevant. It's a binary problem with a 2 part solution. I'm the wolf. You should kill stessier to prove me, then lynch Grund.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:47 pm

Besides which, I really wanna discover how my death proves Bubbles. that's a rule twist I haven't figured out yet.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:02 pm

Kraegor wrote:Besides which, I really wanna discover how my death proves Bubbles. that's a rule twist I haven't figured out yet.

Bubbles is immaterial but it comes up because stessier named him as the first scanned. So if you are wolf and stessier Seer then Bubbles (who died at night) is proved innocent. Whoop die do.