Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

[Blackhawk]

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

What determines when you're "there" yet?

Blackhawk's description is when it is in full effect. What constitutes the beginning of the troubles?

I'd argue that getting shot for a flag you've put up or having a van plow into a crowd of protestors are very clearly the start.

It's starting. Unless these events are fake news, the avalanche has already begun, it just hasn't buried everyone on the sidelines yet. And until it does, as malchoir says, "very serious people" are going to claim everything is fine and people are overreacting.

Have we ever not had that? I'd say that the start is just a gradual increase of coordinated attacks (as opposed to individual sociopaths acting alone because the organized groups make them feel legitimized), or the rise of one or more large, active 'cells' committing multiple acts. We don't have an IRA or ILNA - yet. What we do have is multiple groups more than capable of becoming that, or spawning splinter groups that are that. Individual attacks are not the equivalent of an 'irregular war.' When we see multiple attacks happen and organizations start issuing demands or claiming credit, then it will have started.

[GreenGoo]

I think the main difference is 1 party is endorsing it now. At best, refusing to condemn, at worst, using language that is easily interpreted as calls for violence. Their words are volatile and more than a wink and a nod (in my day, that guy would be leaving on a stretcher). And the laws they are putting in place? Clearly targeting the other in ways that aren't about how they behave, but about who they are.

With that said, and I'd say it's pretty condemning, there does appear to be an increase in targeted violence. Not sure if the stats hold that up, but I wouldn't be surprised. Tell me it's down actually and I will be shocked.

We don't have an IRA or ILNA - yet.

Right. That's why this is the start. If you had that, it would be in full swing.

[Pyperkub]

Back to the actual elected GOP politicians being outright liars to denigrate the US for fun and profit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/20 ... icole-gee/

“The allegations originally published turned out to be false, which I suspect Mr. Lee knew in the first place, and was the reason he did not seek comment from the Marine Corps,” wrote Marine Corps spokesman Maj. James Stenger in an email to the Fox executives."

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[Blackhawk]

Maybe. It's just hard to define a solid line between the random violence we've always had (especially in this era of copycats) and where we're (hopefully not) headed as the 'start.' I will say this: We're building toward something. Whether that something is The American Troubles or just a temporary increase in individual violence, I don't know. Time will tell.

[GreenGoo]

Back to the actual elected GOP politicians being outright liars to denigrate the US for fun and profit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/20 ... icole-gee/

“The allegations originally published turned out to be false, which I suspect Mr. Lee knew in the first place, and was the reason he did not seek comment from the Marine Corps,” wrote Marine Corps spokesman Maj. James Stenger in an email to the Fox executives."

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I thought it was Democrats that hate America? Love it or leave it, commies!

[Carpet_pissr]

Will law enforcement finally take this seriously, or will they continue to wave it off and tacitly support it (in part to continue enabling and covering up unethical, if not outright illegal behaviors)?

Ummm, not sure how to break this to you, but I think "the police" are generally MAGA friendly. Or maybe that's regional.

Anecdotally, thin blue line flags are quite popular with the MAGATs these days. In fact, my neighbor behind me took down his Qanon flag and replaced it with a thin blue line flag, if that tells you anything.

[Carpet_pissr]

I thought it was Democrats that hate America? Love it or leave it, commies!

I'm starting to, ironically thanks to the MAGAT idiots I have to share the country with, who claim to be the biggest patriots of all.

[Kurth]

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

What determines when you're "there" yet?

Blackhawk's description is when it is in full effect. What constitutes the beginning of the troubles?

I'd argue that getting shot for a flag you've put up or having a van plow into a crowd of protestors are very clearly the start.

You have 1 party of a 2 party system actively targeting "others". I'd even argue that that party is actively insinuating that violence is acceptable.

It's starting. Unless these events are fake news, the avalanche has already begun, it just hasn't buried everyone on the sidelines yet. And until it does, as malchoir says, "very serious people" are going to claim everything is fine and people are overreacting.

I think we’re “there” when the violence is more than uncoordinated one-off attacks by nutters, which is the vast, vast majority of what we see today. Even the “coordinated” actions that have existed have been clownish.

I mean, if we want to call the pride flag killing an “assasination” to make it sound like it’s a political act with a movement behind it, fine. But it was some stupid kid, likely with mental health issues, angry at his father and acting alone after falling down the rabbit hole of internet conspiracy and hate. Calling that murder an “assasination” plays great with the narrative, but I think it’s a stretch.

I’m not saying we’re not headed toward trouble. I’m terrified about what may happen in connection with the 2024 election. But what’s happening now isn’t that. Not yet, at least.

[Holman]

American history is chock-full of violence against ethnic, racial, and even political minorities: black lynchings, violence against immigrants (especially Latin Americans and Asians), attacks on politically active minority groups (e.g. gays), etc; it's all there.

What often gets forgotten, as well, is that America has a history of violence against workers of all backgrounds asserting their rights. There have been wholesale militarized attacks on striking miners and factory workers and farm laborers throughout our history.

It's almost astonishing that there was even ever a period (the 1930s through maybe the 1970s) when the US government was willing to take minority/worker claims seriously rather than just sending in the cops or the national guard to suppress them.

What's new is that we're now entering a period of all-but-condoned sporadic violence and intimidation against politically active members of the *majority*. Most Americans would side with librarians and teachers and doctors who are trying to respect the needs of their students and patients, but our minority political party is asserting its bigotry loudly and forcefully while threatening even worse. Our current political crisis is all about whether these bigots will be allowed to set the terms of American life.

And now, of course, the bigots' Hero and his underlings are being held accountable for their efforts to overturn the American experiment in self-government. It's hard to overestimate the significance of where we stand right now.

[Kraken]

What's new is that we're now entering a period of all-but-condoned sporadic violence and intimidation against politically active members of the *majority*. Most Americans would side with librarians and teachers and doctors who are trying to respect the needs of their students and patients, but our minority political party is asserting its bigotry loudly and forcefully while threatening even worse. Our current political crisis is all about whether these bigots will be allowed to set the terms of American life.

Having just watched "Inherit the Wind" (1960 version) last night, that's not as new as you might think. The Scopes Monkey Trial was all about the religious minority imposing its will through law. 'Course, christofascists were the majority in TN in 1925 (and still are for all I know), and while violence was in the air, it didn't occur, so it's not a great analogy. It's a great movie if you like courtroom dramas, though. The play (1955) and the movie were made in reaction to the McCarthy trials.

[YellowKing]

This is a bit of a hot take, but I don't think if Trump is the nominee and loses again in 2024 that we're going to see another Jan. 6. The guy's having trouble getting more than 20 people to show up to his indictment hearings. And you can rest assured DC is going to be locked down. I'm not saying there's not an escalated risk of nutjobs, but ever since Jan. 6 none of the dire predictions of violence and unrest associated with Trump things has come true.

[RunningMn9]

That might happen if Republicans get slaughtered again in '24. But their party can only mark time until TFG dies.

I assume you’ve seen enough to know this isn’t going to happen. They aren’t going to get slaughtered. If someone put a gun to my head and made me identify the one party we are going to end up with in a one party situation, it sure as hell isn’t going to be the Democrats.

[Kraken]

That might happen if Republicans get slaughtered again in '24. But their party can only mark time until TFG dies.

I assume you’ve seen enough to know this isn’t going to happen. They aren’t going to get slaughtered. If someone put a gun to my head and made me identify the one party we are going to end up with in a one party situation, it sure as hell isn’t going to be the Democrats.

If neither one of them dies or goes to prison, Biden will defeat trump again in another nail-biter, and trump will throw as much shade as his considerable bulk can cast. I think the Dems will retake the House, but lose the Senate. If Dems against all odds hold the Senate, Republicans got slaughtered. You read it here first.

[Kurth]

That might happen if Republicans get slaughtered again in '24. But their party can only mark time until TFG dies.

I assume you’ve seen enough to know this isn’t going to happen. They aren’t going to get slaughtered. If someone put a gun to my head and made me identify the one party we are going to end up with in a one party situation, it sure as hell isn’t going to be the Democrats.

If neither one of them dies or goes to prison, Biden will defeat trump again in another nail-biter, and trump will throw as much shade as his considerable bulk can cast. I think the Dems will retake the House, but lose the Senate. If Dems against all odds hold the Senate, Republicans got slaughtered. You read it here first.

If I were forced to put money on a most probable outcome, this would be the prediction I’d ride with.

[RunningMn9]

So much optimism! GOP holds House. GOP takes Senate and White House. We are completely broken.

[milo]

Yes, Arguably the second civil war or American Troubles have already begun given January 6 and attacks on things like the power grid. To an extent the mass shootings could also be a factor.

If you look at the two major political groups in Northern Ireland you’ll see uncompromising language very similar to the democrats and republicans.

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

During the Irish Troubles, approximately 3800 people were killed. In the US, there are more than 40,000 gun deaths every year. If something like the Troubles did start here, would anyone even notice?

[Kurth]

Yes, Arguably the second civil war or American Troubles have already begun given January 6 and attacks on things like the power grid. To an extent the mass shootings could also be a factor.

If you look at the two major political groups in Northern Ireland you’ll see uncompromising language very similar to the democrats and republicans.

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

During the Irish Troubles, approximately 3800 people were killed. In the US, there are more than 40,000 gun deaths every year. If something like the Troubles did start here, would anyone even notice?

(1) That's incredibly depressing to the extent it highlights how callous we are to the number of Americans killed every year by guns; and (2) yes, if something like the Troubles did start here, we would definitely notice.

Gun deaths are awful. But gun deaths in connection with political/insurrectionist/revolutionary activity are absolutely something that we'd notice, and quickly.

[Blackhawk]

Yes, Arguably the second civil war or American Troubles have already begun given January 6 and attacks on things like the power grid. To an extent the mass shootings could also be a factor.

If you look at the two major political groups in Northern Ireland you’ll see uncompromising language very similar to the democrats and republicans.

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

During the Irish Troubles, approximately 3800 people were killed. In the US, there are more than 40,000 gun deaths every year. If something like the Troubles did start here, would anyone even notice?

Adjusted for population, that would be around a quarter of a million dead. We'd notice.

Well, unless we had to wear masks to stop it.

[Kraken]

So much optimism! GOP holds House. GOP takes Senate and White House. We are completely broken.

Don't worry: the pessimists have a malchior.

[LawBeefaroni]

I don't think any kind of comparison to The Troubles is apt. That was a nationalist movement by a minority group. This is a white nationalist ethnic majority group who as recently as 3 years ago held the Presidency.

[malchior]

So much optimism! GOP holds House. GOP takes Senate and White House. We are completely broken.

Don't worry: the pessimists have a malchior.

FWIW I think it's long overdue to address this. I believe labels such as 'optimist' or 'pessimist' are a distraction. It's often not meaningful or predictive. Someone could read my comments in the Ukraine thread and label my comments on the situation there as being optimistic in general. However, I don't see things that way. I respond to evidence and if the evidence is "negative" or "positive" then that is what it is. I don't adjust it to fit some world view. I get most people don't work that way but I challenge people to think about how they receive and process information because this sort of labeling often is more about feelings than rationalism.

[Carpet_pissr]

Ok, Spock.

[Unagi]

I always enjoyed this definition:


An optimist thinks this is the best of all worlds.
A pessimist knows it.

I like it, I think, because it’s pithy and pessimistic.

[GreenGoo]

I think we’re “there” when the violence is more than uncoordinated one-off attacks by nutters, which is the vast, vast majority of what we see today. Even the “coordinated” actions that have existed have been clownish.

I mean, if we want to call the pride flag killing an “assasination” to make it sound like it’s a political act with a movement behind it, fine.

Sure, but those one-off attacks by nutters are from nutters that have found their people and feel comfortable storming the castle with them.

No one is calling the flag killing an assassination but I don't know what that has to do with this conversation.

We could look at every single politically motivated act of violence over the last decade and try to refute each one individually, but that's a forest/trees issue.

Thousands of people inspired by a charismatic cult leader stormed the capital trying to overthrow the legitimate government and people died.

I actually don't care if we call it "the troubles" or the start of them or what label we put on it. The US is struggling and there are no signs things are improving. That there has been political violence in the past does not excuse or validate what is happening now, during our lifetimes.

What does the future hold? I don't know. Hopefully aliens invade so a common enemy will unite people. Good luck, western countries.

[Kurth]

So much optimism! GOP holds House. GOP takes Senate and White House. We are completely broken.

Don't worry: the pessimists have a malchior.

FWIW I think it's long overdue to address this. I believe labels such as 'optimist' or 'pessimist' are a distraction. It's often not meaningful or predictive. Someone could read my comments in the Ukraine thread and label my comments on the situation there as being optimistic in general. However, I don't see things that way. I respond to evidence and if the evidence is "negative" or "positive" then that is what it is. I don't adjust it to fit some world view. I get most people don't work that way but I challenge people to think about how they receive and process information because this sort of labeling often is more about feelings than rationalism.

Appreciate all this, and your evidence focused views in general. That said, when was the last time you saw a half full glass?

[Kraken]

So much optimism! GOP holds House. GOP takes Senate and White House. We are completely broken.

Don't worry: the pessimists have a malchior.

FWIW I think it's long overdue to address this. I believe labels such as 'optimist' or 'pessimist' are a distraction. It's often not meaningful or predictive. Someone could read my comments in the Ukraine thread and label my comments on the situation there as being optimistic in general. However, I don't see things that way. I respond to evidence and if the evidence is "negative" or "positive" then that is what it is. I don't adjust it to fit some world view. I get most people don't work that way but I challenge people to think about how they receive and process information because this sort of labeling often is more about feelings than rationalism.

I used to consider myself a pessimist before I met RM9 and noxiousdog in this forum. I still don't identify as an optimist, and my general outlook has soured as the climate crisis keeps beating worst-case predictions and MAGAts fail to fade away...but I'm less pessimistic than some. I call it the way I see it and let labels fall where they may.

[Kurth]

I think we’re “there” when the violence is more than uncoordinated one-off attacks by nutters, which is the vast, vast majority of what we see today. Even the “coordinated” actions that have existed have been clownish.

I mean, if we want to call the pride flag killing an “assasination” to make it sound like it’s a political act with a movement behind it, fine.

Sure, but those one-off attacks by nutters are from nutters that have found their people and feel comfortable storming the castle with them.

No one is calling the flag killing an assassination but I don't know what that has to do with this conversation.

We could look at every single politically motivated act of violence over the last decade and try to refute each one individually, but that's a forest/trees issue.

Thousands of people inspired by a charismatic cult leader stormed the capital trying to overthrow the legitimate government and people died.

I actually don't care if we call it "the troubles" or the start of them or what label we put on it. The US is struggling and there are no signs things are improving. That there has been political violence in the past does not excuse or validate what is happening now, during our lifetimes.

What does the future hold? I don't know. Hopefully aliens invade so a common enemy will unite people. Good luck, western countries.

3 percenters, Oath keepers, etc are actually coordinating. See also Charlottesville and others

It's relatively small scale for now, but the violence has been ramping up for years. See the Pride flag assassination, Pelosi's husband, plots to kill the Michigan governor, death threats to jurors and judges, drive by shootings and other attacks on power stations.

This post from Pyperkub was what I was responding to.

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against. I mean, if we can’t unite against Putin’s Russia, I don’t know that aliens are going to get it done.

[Carpet_pissr]

I actually don't care if we call it "the troubles" or the start of them or what label we put on it.

As a Southerner who mocks most things Southern (especially sugarcoating things), I hope at some point it gets referred to as "the late unpleasantness".

I guess you could always say "the present unpleasantness" or "the future unpleasantness" but they don't have quite the same ring.

[GreenGoo]

3 percenters, Oath keepers, etc are actually coordinating. See also Charlottesville and others

It's relatively small scale for now, but the violence has been ramping up for years. See the Pride flag assassination, Pelosi's husband, plots to kill the Michigan governor, death threats to jurors and judges, drive by shootings and other attacks on power stations.

This post from Pyperkub was what I was responding to.

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against. I mean, if we can’t unite against Putin’s Russia, I don’t know that aliens are going to get it done.

Lol, ok, I stand corrected. Some people are referring to it as an assassination.

If Aliens are smart enough to start talking about how persecuted white christians are, you might have a point.

[Kurth]

3 percenters, Oath keepers, etc are actually coordinating. See also Charlottesville and others

It's relatively small scale for now, but the violence has been ramping up for years. See the Pride flag assassination, Pelosi's husband, plots to kill the Michigan governor, death threats to jurors and judges, drive by shootings and other attacks on power stations.

This post from Pyperkub was what I was responding to.

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against. I mean, if we can’t unite against Putin’s Russia, I don’t know that aliens are going to get it done.

Lol, ok, I stand corrected. Some people are referring to it as an assassination.

If Aliens are smart enough to start talking about how persecuted white christians are, you might have a point.

Seriously, the aliens are at least that smart. I suspect they are already preparing their propaganda plan to reintroduce incandescent light bulbs.

[Alefroth]

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against.

Absolutely. The pandemic made that clear.

[Pyperkub]

3 percenters, Oath keepers, etc are actually coordinating. See also Charlottesville and others

It's relatively small scale for now, but the violence has been ramping up for years. See the Pride flag assassination, Pelosi's husband, plots to kill the Michigan governor, death threats to jurors and judges, drive by shootings and other attacks on power stations.

This post from Pyperkub was what I was responding to.

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against. I mean, if we can’t unite against Putin’s Russia, I don’t know that aliens are going to get it done.

Lol, ok, I stand corrected. Some people are referring to it as an assassination.

If Aliens are smart enough to start talking about how persecuted white christians are, you might have a point.

I was in a rush on my phone /shrug. It was just the most recent example.

[RunningMn9]

I used to consider myself a pessimist before I met RM9 and noxiousdog in this forum. I still don't identify as an optimist, and my general outlook has soured as the climate crisis keeps beating worst-case predictions and MAGAts fail to fade away...but I'm less pessimistic than some. I call it the way I see it and let labels fall where they may.

I chuckled at the pessimism comment directed at malchior, because he makes me feel like an optimist (my observation on that is that his outlook is framed by carefully selected evidence that reinforces a pessimist narrative, enhanced by a near constant worst case interpretation of motive and circumstance).

But when it comes to the direction that we are headed, I cannot see any positive developments no matter where I look. The most optimistic data points simple show that some part of the system might be failing slower than expected, but it’s still failing under continuously mounting stress.

I routinely encounter people that have no idea that any of this is even going on. “I don’t really pay attention to politics”. While the country burns. I just don’t see any way out of this.

[Kurth]

I routinely encounter people that have no idea that any of this is even going on. “I don’t really pay attention to politics”. While the country burns. I just don’t see any way out of this.

Worse, even assuming we survive our near term political existential crisis, we are literally burning up from climate change.

After Obama, I told myself I was going to become a single issue voter focused on the environment. Then Trump happened and I had to become a single issue voter for democracy.

Pathetic.

[Pyperkub]

I routinely encounter people that have no idea that any of this is even going on. “I don’t really pay attention to politics”. While the country burns. I just don’t see any way out of this.

In my anecdotal experience/opinion, these are mostly people who usually vote straight GOP ticket.

I could be biased, but for the past decade or two, that seems to be the pattern. Sure there are democrats who do that, but mostly to a far lesser degree.

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[Pyperkub]

3 percenters, Oath keepers, etc are actually coordinating. See also Charlottesville and others

It's relatively small scale for now, but the violence has been ramping up for years. See the Pride flag assassination, Pelosi's husband, plots to kill the Michigan governor, death threats to jurors and judges, drive by shootings and other attacks on power stations.

This post from Pyperkub was what I was responding to.

Also, these days, I’m not so sure an alien invasion would provide a common enemy for us to unite against. I mean, if we can’t unite against Putin’s Russia, I don’t know that aliens are going to get it done.

Lol, ok, I stand corrected. Some people are referring to it as an assassination.

If Aliens are smart enough to start talking about how persecuted white christians are, you might have a point.

And yet, these are politically motivated and targeted killings. What should we call them?

https://apnews.com/article/deadly-shoot ... 8a46d8fb97



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[GreenGoo]

That linked article doesn't contain the word "pride" or "flag" anywhere on it that firefox could find.

I think you're missing a string of communication that ended with me lol'ing. I'm really not the guy who took exception to your usage of assassination, and my lol was directed at my own certainty that no one was throwing around the "assassination" word. as in "Lol, whoops, I was wrong". Not "I lol at the usage assassination to describe this event".

In any case, carry on.

[waitingtoconnect]

Yes, Arguably the second civil war or American Troubles have already begun given January 6 and attacks on things like the power grid. To an extent the mass shootings could also be a factor.

If you look at the two major political groups in Northern Ireland you’ll see uncompromising language very similar to the democrats and republicans.

I’m sorry, but this is fantasy land. There is no “second civil war” or “American Troubles” going on right now. That’s just not happening. We’re not there yet.

Yes I did say arguably. I don’t see it myself yet but the signs are fast pointing to it. The riots, shootings, high crime rates, economic difficulties for most and political rhetoric are all there.

Historians debate the start of the troubles but most pin it to the creation of the ulster defence force when radicals from the unionist side started openly killing an Irish republicans in 1966. Prior to this only republicans had dissident groups, namely the IRA.

Right not there are organised right wing groups praised by the president like the proud boy’s and oath keepers. If egged on by republicans like Trump violence increases and then Antifa type groups rise up in opposition to them and then also respond in kind we are serious trouble.

As for alien invasion, I’m sure we are far more entertaining as reality tv or a nature documentary.

[malchior]

The conditions are there for more unrest. We are mostly seeing the pressure triggering outliers right now. There are also some accelerationist groups out there but they are relatively small organizations like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, etc. In reality, the real trouble are all the sympathizers out there. Still we aren't seeing anything durably cohesive for them to sympathize with in a concrete way. However, if it does start it'll may spin up relatively fast because the drivers will likely be aligned to national politics. It doesn't help that there are a lot of white nationalist aligned folks in positions of authority in the United States.

I have thought about this issue somewhat for a long time and I'm starting to conclude that we've been relatively lucky. We haven't seen a large population of disaffected young males appear. This holds up even considering the pandemic which could have been really fueled unrest. We can probably thank the fiscal pump for making that less of a risk. Low unemployment and adequate fiscal support might have been why we haven't seen anything that looks like a Arab Spring here. Instead it's mostly older people...which is unusual but aligns with the voting patterns. However, older people generally don't directly participate in violent movements.

In any case, it is something to keep an eye on. I've monitored online communities for years and it's been tougher and tougher to maintain hard right chat rooms over the last few years. That's helpful because you still need to build networks generally to meaningfully "rebel". I don't know if Elon is going to partially reverse that trend though. It'll be something I keep an eye on as the election approaches next year.

[Pyperkub]

That linked article doesn't contain the word "pride" or "flag" anywhere on it that firefox could find.

I think you're missing a string of communication that ended with me lol'ing. I'm really not the guy who took exception to your usage of assassination, and my lol was directed at my own certainty that no one was throwing around the "assassination" word. as in "Lol, whoops, I was wrong". Not "I lol at the usage assassination to describe this event".

In any case, carry on.

Fair enough. It's hard to argue that today's GOP isn't tacitly encouraging this behavior when all the rhetoric goes to this end, and the politicians they elect increasingly lean into the language which encourages this.

As well as pursuing policies which makes this ever more likely to continue to expand.

(and ps, nope, not pride or flags, just yet another white nationalist murderer, like so many others)

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