2020 Election Results

[Lorini]

Trump had a meltdown about AZ. The campaign angrily called Fox and they retracted their AZ call. Lol.

Also Trump is about to make an announcement that he won the election as predicted.

NYT does not have them retracting their announcement. They take great pride in their polling, they are considered to be a top tier poll by 538. They are the only ones to call AZ for Biden by the way.

[malchior]

Conflicting reports about Fox News. Also Trump just tweeted out that they can't steal the election from him. This was one of the bad scenarios we were worrying about coming. We might expect multiple lawsuits in the morning in MI, WI, PA, GA, and other states.

Edit: The talk about the Fox News retraction is coming from the right. It looks like #FakeNews. I just saw the clip where the Fox News desk says they are standing behind it.

[Carpet_pissr]

So who has the best record for making ‘calls’, AP? Everyone seems to be referencing them.

[El Guapo]

FWIW Biden has said that he thinks that they are on track to win the election.

God what a dumb fucking way to run a country.

Anyway, I'm projecting that I'm going to need go to sleep before we get any real certainty.

[msteelers]

[Defiant]

Fox has not retracted their call.

[Defiant]

[Lorini]

So who has the best record for making ‘calls’, AP? Everyone seems to be referencing them.

538 says ABC is an A+ poll? And I as I said, Fox News is also a top rated poll.

[msteelers]

So who has the best record for making ‘calls’, AP? Everyone seems to be referencing them.

I think the AP is the gold standard. Fox is pretty good too, although there have been a few times over the years where they made some calls earlier than everyone else that have upset republicans.

Most companies making projections are being very conservative this year, for obvious reasons.

[El Guapo]

Trump's people are going to be going all out to shut down vote counting in PA and GA tomorrow.

[msteelers]

[malchior]

[Carpet_pissr]

One thing that both worries AND angers me is that contrary to much popular belief (including here), not only did Trump’s base not shrink, he grew it by not a small amount from 2016. That. Sucks.

Even if Biden squeezes this out, the fact that we as a country didn’t STRONGLY repudiate the racism, the ineptitude, the moral nature of this entire administration, hurts, and hurts bad.

I sadly, and even hesitantly concur with someone’s comment above: I guess America isn’t “better than this”.

[malchior]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

[msteelers]

One thing that both worries AND angers me is that contrary to much popular belief (including here), not only did Trump’s base not shrink, he grew it by not a small amount from 2016. That. Sucks.

Yup. The rot in this country runs deep.

[Defiant]

Trump wins Texas according to NBC

[Grifman]

Fox has not retracted their call.

Arizona could be close, they might be wrong. I've read that the remaining votes in Maricopa county are mostly Election Day votes and if so, they will lean Trump, cutting into Biden's lead there. If so, then the rural Trump areas may just pull him through. We're going to have to wait:

According to turnout estimates, around 520,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 110,000 votes left to report. 6m ago

It could be the opposite of GA.

[Defiant]

Biden wins NE-2 according to Decision Desk.

[Defiant]

Trump wins MT

[malchior]

Fox has not retracted their call.

Arizona could be close, they might be wrong. I've read that the remaining votes in Maricopa county are mostly Election Day votes and if so, they will lean Trump, cutting into Biden's lead there. If so, then the rural Trump areas may just pull him through. We're going to have to wait:

The good news is the break would have to be sharp. Maybe +15 for Trump or more. That is why Fox is pretty comfortable with their call.

[Carpet_pissr]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

His popular vote count is already more than it was in 2016 (at this point in the counting) and we’re still counting.

62,985,000 in 2016
61,100,000 currently with lots of votes to come in. It might not grow a lot from 2016, but it will definitely be more.

[malchior]

Interesting article about how the Democrats fucked up again by not being populist enough. I hold this position in the maybe columnn personally. We don't know if a move into populism might have dislodged a different voter segment.

The bottom line is Biden needed to build a fragile coalition to win whereas Trump had the luxury of an EC advantage and playing to a narrower base. He didn't need to win blacks and Latinos. He just needed them to not vote with Biden.

[malchior]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

His popular vote count is already more than it was in 2016 and we’re still counting.

Higher turnout. We don't know the composition fully yet. We won't know that solidly for a while.

Edit: As an example of the wacky math at play I just ballparked the popular vote augmented with the outstanding California vote. Biden is up about 2M now. With California completely counted it'll probably be 4.5 to 5M. The shape of it will be pretty different. And we have several other states outstanding.

[Grifman]

I don't know if Biden is going to win Wisconsin. He's trailing by 115k votes. Milwaukee gave Clinton a 120k vote margin, and the vote count there is at 36% and it's given Biden a 44k lead. Clinton got 148k lead out of Milwaukee. Biden's got to hope that most of the ballots remaining are absentee and that they skew heavily to him. There are also a lot of rural counties that have a number of votes to count. It's all going to come down to Milwaukee and I think it's going to be close.

[Grifman]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

His popular vote count is already more than it was in 2016 (at this point in the counting) and we’re still counting.

62,985,000 in 2016
61,100,000 currently with lots of votes to come in. It might not grow a lot from 2016, but it will definitely be more.

So looks like turnout was not 100% in the Democrat's favor if Trump siphoned off a substantial portion of it. I think the idea was that the vast majority of increased turnout would be to their benefit. Hmm . . .

[Isgrimnur]

NPR using AP data does.

Thanks!

Glad to help.

[malchior]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

His popular vote count is already more than it was in 2016 (at this point in the counting) and we’re still counting.

62,985,000 in 2016
61,100,000 currently with lots of votes to come in. It might not grow a lot from 2016, but it will definitely be more.

So looks like turnout was not 100% in the Democrat's favor if Trump siphoned off a substantial portion of it. I think the idea was that the vast majority of increased turnout would be to their benefit. Hmm . . .

Its too early to say anything along these lines. 33% of California is outstanding. Probably a couple million or more mail in votes as well.

[malchior]

Press pool has been called to the WH East Room. Trumpn is almost certainly going to declare victory.

[LawBeefaroni]

Fox has not retracted their call.

Arizona could be close, they might be wrong. I've read that the remaining votes in Maricopa county are mostly Election Day votes and if so, they will lean Trump, cutting into Biden's lead there. If so, then the rural Trump areas may just pull him through. We're going to have to wait:

According to turnout estimates, around 520,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 110,000 votes left to report. 6m ago

It could be the opposite of GA.

Even PBS was surprised by Fox's call and suggested that it was premature.

[Grifman]

Interesting article about how the Democrats fucked up again by not being populist enough. I hold this position in the maybe columnn personally. We don't know if a move into populism might have dislodged a different voter segment.

The bottom line is Biden needed to build a fragile coalition to win whereas Trump had the luxury of an EC advantage and playing to a narrower base. He didn't need to win blacks and Latinos. He just needed them to not vote with Biden.

Might it also say that identity politics is not necessarily the winner Democrats thought it might be? If a guy like Trump can increase his votes from Latinos and African-Americans, then race isn't necessarily the winning card here. They are still going to need those driven by racial issues, but it seems that need that plus "something else", I guess the economic populism of Trump?

The article does rightly point out Biden's lack of engagement with Latino's. I've read this elsewhere and I have trouble understanding why he largely ignored this demographic. It's like he took them for granted and focused too much on white voters. He needed to do both.

[Kraken]

Ive never actually been to the northeast, but it's really looking like a good place to be...can yall do something about your winters though? I just cant deal with those.

If you don't like the weather, wait 20 years. Winters are getting milder on average, and by 2050 Boston will have the climate of Virginia. But we still get some impressive winter storms in the meantime so you gotta think about the long game.

[Tao]

NPR has been showing Trump winning TX for a short while now which closes the gap and puts him behind by only 11 votes. The AP map also has Trump leading in enough states to secure another 63 votes without PA. Right now AP's projected map looks identical to 2016 results with the exception of AZ and 11 EV doesn't get it done. I firmly believe Trump is going to look to be the winner come morning and regardless of uncounted ballots Biden will not be able to wrest it away from him in the courts.

I really feel this is a major turning point for this country, Trump unleashed something that was being bottled up or hidden for a good number of years. The perception that as a nation America was becoming more tolerant, more diverse and growing as a nation was a facade that Trump ripped away and that moment of hesitancy at being revealed was met with a pat on the back and a nod that it was okay to come out in to the light and embrace ideologies from 60 years ago. This isn't just a political loss this is a significant number of American citizens embracing Trump in full view of four years of disgusting, despicable behavior, not to mention just completely sucking at the job and saying, "that's our guy, we totally identify with him". I will absolutely be contemplating jobs overseas as soon as possible.

[Kraken]

Interesting article about how the Democrats fucked up again by not being populist enough. I hold this position in the maybe columnn personally. We don't know if a move into populism might have dislodged a different voter segment.

The bottom line is Biden needed to build a fragile coalition to win whereas Trump had the luxury of an EC advantage and playing to a narrower base. He didn't need to win blacks and Latinos. He just needed them to not vote with Biden.

Might it also say that identity politics is not necessarily the winner Democrats thought it might be? If a guy like Trump can increase his votes from Latinos and African-Americans, then race isn't necessarily the winning card here. They are still going to need those driven by racial issues, but it seems that need that plus "something else", I guess the economic populism of Trump?

A guest on Trevor Noah's livestream suggested that trump made inroads among Blacks and Latinos because (my phrasing) trump projects toxic masculinity and Biden's a girly-man. Lest I sound racist, the commentator was a Black woman.

[malchior]

Interesting article about how the Democrats fucked up again by not being populist enough. I hold this position in the maybe columnn personally. We don't know if a move into populism might have dislodged a different voter segment.

The bottom line is Biden needed to build a fragile coalition to win whereas Trump had the luxury of an EC advantage and playing to a narrower base. He didn't need to win blacks and Latinos. He just needed them to not vote with Biden.

Might it also say that identity politics is not necessarily the winner Democrats thought it might be? If a guy like Trump can increase his votes from Latinos and African-Americans, then race isn't necessarily the winning card here. They are still going to need those driven by racial issues, but it seems that need that plus "something else", I guess the economic populism of Trump?

It is almost certainly the populism. Which is what the Bernie people are already crowing about. They think Bernie could have won. I don't think there is much support for that. They would have given up White Suburban voters to get POC with populism. It probably was lose/lose.

The article does rightly point out Biden's lack of engagement with Latino's. I've read this elsewhere and I have trouble understanding why he largely ignored this demographic. It's like he took them for granted and focused too much on white voters. He needed to do both.

They thought they need to peel off Trump's white suburban base. That was the right call but because of the EC they have to cover much more ground. Like Clinton they missed a key demographic that didn't show up in the data.

Some probably bad hot takes:

• Traditional polling science is going to take it right on the nose. It is looking like it missed widely.

• The EC is driving extremism. Trump had a massive advantage because he can mostly double down on core voters and win. That is bad for America long-term

[malchior]

Press pool has been called to the WH East Room. Trumpn is almost certainly going to declare victory.

Press Pool back on standby. This is pretty manic.

[Grifman]

DeKalb is now in and Biden picked up 180k net votes vs my 160k (though other counties may have contributed). He’s only down 120k now. Fulton should give him the 160k net votes I projected. If so, then Biden has a very good chance with GA.

[Grifman]

The EC is driving extremism. Trump had a massive advantage because he can mostly double down on core voters and win. That is bad for America long-term[/list]

Yeah, the EC needs to go. No one runs a national campaign on the issues the country really needs to address. Instead you run on whatever turns people out in the battle ground states. I'd say it needs to go even if it was helping the Democrats. It just isn't working (nor did it ever) as the Founders thought it would. It's hurting the country.

[malchior]

Just heard this on the tv tube

• Approximately 458K votes outstanding in GA. Concentrated almost entirely in Democratic enclaves. And Biden is down about 100K. The post above probably changes this math.

• 2 Million outstanding votes in MI - mostly in Detroit Metro. Biden down 300K.

• 2.2 Million outstanding votes in PA - mostly in PHL and PIT with Trump up 700K.

• 700K votes outstanding in WI. Biden down 100K.

It is going to be extremely close again. Report are that ATL and PHL aren't counting right now. Time to go to bed. I've learned enough to know that we're no closer to escaping our descent.

[Carpet_pissr]

It didn't necessarily grow by early accounts. It probably changed. Even then we are in for long term dysfunction. We are likely in major decline.

His popular vote count is already more than it was in 2016 and we’re still counting.

Higher turnout. We don't know the composition fully yet. We won't know that solidly for a while. .

Not sure I’m understanding you. We already know Trump’s running pop vote count, which is already higher than it was in 2016.

[Jaymann]

Motherfucker! I'm out. No news or R&P for me for the next four years. Unfortunately this country deserves what it is going to get.