Octopus Overlords

In the past that hasn't worked out well. This is 2023 so it will probably win them the office.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:44 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:01 pm Biden should have used the 14th.

Now I'm worried my 401k is going to get slammed, forcing me to work much longer than i had hoped to.

Christ, I'm sick of the extremists in the GOP.

I moved half of mine into a bond fund and fixed account. You aren't that old are you? Still enough time to recover before retirement I'd think.

There's a reason we archived the Hep's Hair subforum...

coopasonic wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:56 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:44 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:01 pm Biden should have used the 14th.

Now I'm worried my 401k is going to get slammed, forcing me to work much longer than i had hoped to.

Christ, I'm sick of the extremists in the GOP.

I moved half of mine into a bond fund and fixed account. You aren't that old are you? Still enough time to recover before retirement I'd think.

There's a reason we archived the Hep's Hair subforum...

Republicans can’t match their rhetoric:

So it will all come down to whether or not the House GOP believes they can pin global economic meltdown on Biden and the Democrats or if they will actually be held to account?

Awesome.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:44 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:01 pm Biden should have used the 14th.

Now I'm worried my 401k is going to get slammed, forcing me to work much longer than i had hoped to.

Christ, I'm sick of the extremists in the GOP.

I moved half of mine into a bond fund and fixed account. You aren't that old are you? Still enough time to recover before retirement I'd think.

I'm going to be 57 in two months. I'm old, my man.

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 4:43 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:44 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 2:01 pm Biden should have used the 14th.

Now I'm worried my 401k is going to get slammed, forcing me to work much longer than i had hoped to.

Christ, I'm sick of the extremists in the GOP.

I moved half of mine into a bond fund and fixed account. You aren't that old are you? Still enough time to recover before retirement I'd think.

I'm going to be 57 in two months. I'm old, my man.

We're pretty close then. I'm halfway through 58. Here's hoping our retirement isn't gutted.

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 4:43 pm I'm going to be 57 in two months. I'm old, my man.

Huh. For some reason I thought you were slightly younger than me. Guess it's the other way around... grandpa.

TheMix wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 6:21 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 4:43 pm I'm going to be 57 in two months. I'm old, my man.

Huh. For some reason I thought you were slightly younger than me. Guess it's the other way around... grandpa.

When discussing maturity, I'm about 25 years behind most of OO.

Reuters reports that the adversaries expect to reach a deal tomorrow afternoon.

The deal would specify the total amount the government could spend on discretionary programs like housing and education, according to a person familiar with the talks, but not break that down into individual categories. The two sides are just $70 billion apart on a total figure that would be well over $1 trillion, according to another source.

I did see something earlier this week suggesting the vaccine research program the Biden administration floated late last year ("Project Next Gen") is on the chopping block. Because it's not like there could ever be a pandemic and that $5 billion invested would probably be better purposed helping out millionaires somehow.

I'm five ignore me.

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm Reuters reports that the adversaries expect to reach a deal tomorrow afternoon.

The deal would specify the total amount the government could spend on discretionary programs like housing and education, according to a person familiar with the talks, but not break that down into individual categories. The two sides are just $70 billion apart on a total figure that would be well over $1 trillion, according to another source.

So DOA in the House?

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm Reuters reports that the adversaries expect to reach a deal tomorrow afternoon.

The deal would specify the total amount the government could spend on discretionary programs like housing and education, according to a person familiar with the talks, but not break that down into individual categories. The two sides are just $70 billion apart on a total figure that would be well over $1 trillion, according to another source.

Apparently they promised everyone 72-hours to "review it" which gets us to Tuesday roughly. Assuming none of the maniacs blow up a deal.

Of course, we also have some people in the Senate threatening the timeline. I figured it'd be Rand throwing the big wrench but the loudest is Mike Lee because...why the heck not. Also we have yet to see if the rebels in the House won't cause problems, There is talk that the "Freedom Caucus" levied new demands this afternoon as well.

Most Americans want spending cuts and most will blame Biden according to new polling if the country defaults. In the media only MSNBC is in the tent with Biden on this as well. So republicans are now very emboldened.

Lucky there is no chance of a filibuster on this I guess?

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 8:18 pm Most Americans want spending cuts and most will blame Biden according to new polling if the country defaults.

Yep. The Republicans completely controlled the narrative.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 7:26 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm Reuters reports that the adversaries expect to reach a deal tomorrow afternoon.

The deal would specify the total amount the government could spend on discretionary programs like housing and education, according to a person familiar with the talks, but not break that down into individual categories. The two sides are just $70 billion apart on a total figure that would be well over $1 trillion, according to another source.

So DOA in the House?

It will clearly need support from the more rational members of both parties. The reactionaries won't play ball, and the progressives aren't going to help either.

I wonder if McCarthy will remain speaker after filthy Democrats support his compromise.

And yeah, Biden really lost the messaging game.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 9:22 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 8:18 pm Most Americans want spending cuts and most will blame Biden according to new polling if the country defaults.

Yep. The Republicans completely controlled the narrative.

This Politico piece is a kindred piece to the Washington Post feature earlier today talking about how Democratic backbenchers were freaking out. This graph stood out to me though. The administration is bitching about the media failing *but* also intentionally not engaging with the media. Alright then.

Biden officials also have bristled at the media coverage of the standoff, complaining that outlets are failing to convey the seriousness of the crisis or fact-check Republicans on their claims. White House reporters tracking the talks acknowledged that some of those criticisms were fair — but said the White House has done little to aid their case. Officials have closely guarded details of the talks, in contrast to McCarthy’s approach of making his negotiators widely available.

I think Biden did more than lose the messaging game, he lost the game entirely. He should have entered the ring much earlier and been receptive to spending cuts while also pushing for tax increases loudly and publicly. I know the progressives here have strong voices, but spending is simply too high. It's been too high since QE began and Obama and his Congress ran with it too long and then Trumpublicanism picked up the torch and ran amok and Biden has spent the last couple of years with no exit plan while the Fed fumbled again and again.

Is Biden the one to blame for the mess? Nope. Is he a proximate cause, right along side the GOP and its burn it to the grown make up? Yep. He may not be 50 or 40 or even 30% of the blame but he is not without blame entirely. He' just the best of the worst actually in the race. Much like he will be when he runs for re-election.

I'll reserve judgment until I know the particulars of this compromise. But if Biden's substantial legislative accomplishments of his first two years stand mostly intact, that will be a win.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 4:12 pm So it will all come down to whether or not the House GOP believes they can pin global economic meltdown on Biden and the Democrats or if they will actually be held to account?

Awesome.

I think it was always going to come down to this with the current GOP.

It is not surprising that the Republicans have already won. At large they didn't want *actual* spending cuts in the end. That'd take money out of oligarch pockets. Federal spend is great for them. Well at least spend in the right places to the right people...um...corporations. Anyone who buys this "cut spending" malarkey only has to look at what they do when they have power to cut spending. They cut taxes and usually juice spending at the same time. It's been a pattern since Reagan. But heck why let a little straightforward read on reality get in the way of our little childish bed time tales we tell each other about divided government and responsible spending.

IMO the proper analysis once we hear the "compromise" will be to weigh out how everything extracted benefited the oligarchs in some way while we express relief our 401ks survive until the next crisis. For the oligarchs facing baby boomers retiring that'd be taking off pressure off ceilings on SS deductions (currently at $160,200) or preventing a percentage point or more raise to FICA that may become inevitable. That is what I believe are behind the push for "work requirements" for social programs. Straight forward cuts to Medicare/SS might have too much electoral impact so they've as usual innovated a solution that sounds like a "compromise". Maybe they'll add momentum to a discussion about raising the social security retirement age - despite our falling lifespans. They'll kick a can or two down the road again. Whatever it is we can be sure the ultra wealthy will come out ahead....well unless they've lost enough control that the maniacs actually do accidentally blow it all up.

I mean, what EVER were the chances that Kevin McCarthy could ever hand anyone anything that he got enough of his GOP group to vote for? They will undermine him almost faster than they will undermine Biden.

So, is it real - is this going to be a solution that McCarthy +SomeNumberOfRepublicans +SomeMuchBiggerNumberofDemocrats send to the Senate?

That's the fun! NO ONE KNOWS! First they need to hammer out a deal and then we find out if it implodes. And they need to get it done by the following Monday. What a way to run the worlds biggest economy.

Guess we find out soon!

I didn't think Republicans had principles. *rimshot*

Again, wtf is the White House negotiating anything? The GOP terrorists keep doing this kind of crap because it works

Summary of deal as I understand it:
— Debt ceiling raised 2 years
— Domestic programs frozen next year, up 1% ‘25. Inflation-adjusted cut
— Boosts defense, VA $
— Some tightening of work requirements on TANF, SNAP
— Energy permitting (details tbd)
— Claw back some new IRS $

Statement from the President:

Earlier this evening, Speaker McCarthy and I reached a budget agreement in principle.

It is an important step forward that reduces spending while protecting critical programs for working people and growing the economy for everyone. And, the agreement protects my and Congressional Democrats’ key priorities and legislative accomplishments.

The agreement represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want. That’s the responsibility of governing.

And, this agreement is good news for the American people, because it prevents what could have been a catastrophic default and would have led to an economic recession, retirement accounts devastated, and millions of jobs lost.

Over the next day, our negotiating teams will finalize legislative text and the agreement will go to the United States House and Senate. I strongly urge both chambers to pass the agreement right away.

More money for defense? Like we don't spend enough already? For f sake he's a moron.

Octavious wrote: ↑Sat May 27, 2023 10:44 pm More money for defense? Like we don't spend enough already? For f sake he's a moron.

Let's not be hasty on that front.

Except they should pay you more.

Octavious wrote: ↑Sat May 27, 2023 11:07 pm Except they should pay you more.

They are about to start airlifting giant piles of money into the area. Just let it happen.

Republicans in Congress: we must have spending cuts!
*blackmail democrats into a “bipartisan” bill*
Republicans on campaign trail: the democrats and their evil spending cuts…

Not so fast…

More detail here:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/politics ... index.html

I'm not sure either leader will be able to sell this to the far left/right members of their parties. Let's hope the middle (if there is one, holds).

Grifman wrote: ↑Sun May 28, 2023 1:00 am More detail here:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/politics ... index.html

I'm not sure either leader will be able to sell this to the far left/right members of their parties. Let's hope the middle (if there is one, holds).

If both parties hate it equally, it's probably a more-or-less fair deal. Whether we like it or not, it's this or chaos. Chaos has a large constituency on one side, but let's hope anti-chaos has the majority.

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun May 28, 2023 1:53 am

Grifman wrote: ↑Sun May 28, 2023 1:00 am More detail here:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/politics ... index.html

I'm not sure either leader will be able to sell this to the far left/right members of their parties. Let's hope the middle (if there is one, holds).

If both parties hate it equally, it's probably a more-or-less fair deal. Whether we like it or not, it's this or chaos.

Eh. This seems a stretch at best. The economic and political terrorists are also not happy therefore it's fair?

Nothing in the agreement is enough reason to take a hard stance and go over the edge but it's definitely not fair -- for example tell that to older workers who are often forced out of work that they now have to scramble to find work or starve. I suppose that is just a sacrifice to make sure the world's biggest military still grows at rapid place -- feeding dollars to the wealthiest.

Also being sacrificed for the "greater good"? The environment. Energy permitting reform is shadow President Manchin's pet project. To unlock more pipelines, more fossil fuel development, and more pollution. Extracted at knife's edge instead of through a transparent process. That doesn't seem fair either.

Chaos has a large constituency on one side, but let's hope anti-chaos has the majority.

No matter the outcome this *entire thing* no matter the outcome was, is, and will be in the future chaos through and through. This is what the United States lack of governance looks like. We shouldn't make excuses for this process or any of the general incompetence and meanness all around. We shouldn't accept that this is how our nation is run.

I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).

We'll most likely play a different version of the same game two years hence (depending on the makeup of the next government -- I foresee a narrow Dem majority in the House, a R Senate, and the presidency is a tossup at this point).

Your daily hard pill to swallow is that if the Dems had the narrow majority in the House and Republicans held the Presidency and the Senate, we wouldn't be calling them terrorists. They'd be "resistance fighters" or something.

I fall on the side of "this is about as good as we could have hoped for." The fantasyland scenario of Biden getting everything he wanted was never going to happen. He didn't give in to every demand to get the deal. We actually *have* a deal that has a reasonable chance of going through.

When all is said and done, the concessions made are far better than a default, and Biden's kicking the can down the road to gamble on a better political environment in 2024.