2022 Midterm Election

[Grifman]

Well, at least slavery lost:



But those opposition votes . . .

[Holman]

I remember going to bed in 2004 thinking that John Kerry had won, and how bad it felt to see the news when I woke up.

Given the stakes for democracy this time, this feels like the exact opposite of that race!

[Grifman]

[Grifman]

From all that I have read, even though I didn’t like it, the Democratic strategy of supporting crazy pro-MAGA’s in the Republican primaries appears to have paid off:

[Holman]

Advisers will be desperate for him to hold off announcing before the likely Warnock-Walker runoff, but Trump will be Trump.

He also can't let any major rival go first. I wonder if DeSantis might try to scoop him.

[YellowKing]

“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,”

So....typical weeknight?

[malchior]

He also can't let any major rival go first. I wonder if DeSantis might try to scoop him.

DeSantis just won re-election - I can't imagine him announcing two years out. He'll be inclined to use his big win to push for an agenda that delivers some big talking point for his eventual campaign. I don't think he's the type to go for a relatively symbolic momentum play anyway.

Also he probably doesn't have the org for it ready to go either. Perhaps he could re-purpose the gubernatorial staff but that's a big shift.

[LordMortis]

From all that I have read, even though I didn’t like it, the Democratic strategy of supporting crazy pro-MAGA’s in the Republican primaries appears to have paid off:

That's what the news was reporting (CNN and CNBC). Likely true. Doesn't make it a good thing, IMO. It just reinforces my personal bias that my vote is being held against things I don't like for things not burning the whole thing to the ground. Whitmer is rightfully deeply unpopular here and yet she won by a reasonable margin. If it weren't nut for her opposition and a vote to object to the Supreme Courts RvW decision, I rather doubt she stood a chance. It both gives me hope that MAGA won't destroy the nation and a sense of melancholy at what we need to accept to not lose the community, the state, and the nation.

[stessier]

Well, at least slavery lost:



But those opposition votes . . .

Can anyone explain why the Oregon vote was so close?

[malchior]

Probably due to the language - everything after word slavery is probably too close to "defund the police" for folks.

Amends the Oregon Constitution to delete a provision permitting slavery or involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime. Affirms that courts can issue sentencing alternatives to incarceration, including mandatory education, counseling, treatment or community service.

[Holman]

He also can't let any major rival go first. I wonder if DeSantis might try to scoop him.

DeSantis just won re-election - I can't imagine him announcing two years out. He'll be inclined to use his big win to push for an agenda that delivers some big talking point for his eventual campaign. I don't think he's the type to go for a relatively symbolic momentum play anyway.

Also he probably doesn't have the org for it ready to go either. Perhaps he could re-purpose the gubernatorial staff but that's a big shift.

Well, he's DeSantis, though. He's got a colossal ego, and right now he's riding on the fact of being the landslide GOP winner in an otherwise dismal election night for the party. This (meaning the coming weeks) might be his moment.

[Daveman]

Glad that the results (so far) look like things went better than expected.

Still increasingly depressed that in most cases 48+% of the vote is going to awful people.

[malchior]

He also can't let any major rival go first. I wonder if DeSantis might try to scoop him.

DeSantis just won re-election - I can't imagine him announcing two years out. He'll be inclined to use his big win to push for an agenda that delivers some big talking point for his eventual campaign. I don't think he's the type to go for a relatively symbolic momentum play anyway.

Also he probably doesn't have the org for it ready to go either. Perhaps he could re-purpose the gubernatorial staff but that's a big shift.

Well, he's DeSantis, though. He's got a colossal ego, and right now he's riding on the fact of being the landslide GOP winner in an otherwise dismal election night for the party. This (meaning the coming weeks) might be his moment.

Maybe but he's smart. I can see him satisfying his ego by doing something big and showy in Florida too. Still I think we'll get an indicator either way relatively quickly.

Against him running at least in the short-term, I think DeSantis takes the big view and sees that Trump is old and he is young. He has time on his side. In four years, even if Trump wins he gets a chance to run. Barring the chance that Trump breaks the wheel. Assuming some version of normal order, that works for Trump especially well. The combination of Trump's control over the base means he has a relatively easy path to nomination even in a contested primary process. That's a lot of risk for DeSantis. DeSantis likely doesn't want to smash up his brand in some protracted long odds conflict with Trump.

On the flip side, he also might foresee all the problems a GOP civil war would introduce, sees the damage Trump did this cycle, and decide it is worth it because of the damage Trump will do. He might feel like he is the right guy to nip it in the bud. And DeSantis might have just enough ego to not realize how charmless he is. His act plays well with hard right people but he might not have the vision or restraint to see we just got an indicator that his act won't work nationally. If he did go this way, I'd consider it a nice for democracy blunder. We'll probably get a hint of that relatively soon.

[LawBeefaroni]

This is very good:

This is better than I could have hoped for. As long as Finichem loses in AZ I think all the election-denying SOS candidates lost.

Maybe Democracy will live for another 2 years.

Some of those are big but in Illinois, Bailey had no chance. He managed to get within 12% of Pritzker only because Uihlein and Griffin alone poured in over hundred million dollars into his campaign because those two billionaires don't like the other billionaire.

[Jaymann]

Drunk on power is still drunk.

[Kurth]

Why would DeSantis do anything now? After how poorly most of his candidates performed in the midterms, the criticism of Trump will become a constant drumbeat. And Trump is bound to react to being called “weak” and do something insane.

If DeSantis plays his cards right, he can just sit tight, and the way things are looking, the GOP will be begging him to run before too long.

[malchior]

Why would DeSantis do anything now? After how poorly most of his candidates performed in the midterms, the criticism of Trump will become a constant drumbeat. And Trump is bound to react to being called “weak” and do something insane.

If DeSantis plays his cards right, he can just sit tight, and the way things are looking, the GOP will be begging him to run before too long.

This is another good angle. I think Trump has too much control *now* to be ignored/discarded but it could change.

[Holman]

Why would DeSantis do anything now? After how poorly most of his candidates performed in the midterms, the criticism of Trump will become a constant drumbeat. And Trump is bound to react to being called “weak” and do something insane.

If DeSantis plays his cards right, he can just sit tight, and the way things are looking, the GOP will be begging him to run before too long.

Good points.

[Daehawk]

Lots of posts saying how there was little voter fraud cries. I guess not when the GOP why would they. If they'd lost you can bet they would.

[Kurth]

Lots of posts saying how there was little voter fraud cries. I guess not when the GOP why would they. If they'd lost you can bet they would.

They effectively did lose, though.

[Little Raven]

There's been little outcry so far....but honestly, I think a lot of Republicans are still recovering from having the wind knocked out of them so badly.

And if there's one thing that last night showed, it's that America has little patience for election deniers. Traditional Republicans did quite well everywhere that they survived the primary, while election deniers mostly went down in flames. So hopefully that curbed Republican enthusiasm for that kind of platform going forward.

[Kraken]

Could this be what breaks the back of Trumps hold? This is 100 on him. They put up decent candidates and they be would have cleaned house.

This. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Dems.

As a Masshole, I get a distorted view. Instead of nominating Charlie Baker-esque moderate RINOs, the Mass. GOP went full trump, and all of their candidates lost by 20+ points. It's reassuring to know that trump's still toxic enough to sink candidates all over the country.

[Kurth]

Could this be what breaks the back of Trumps hold? This is 100 on him. They put up decent candidates and they be would have cleaned house.

This. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Dems.

As a Masshole, I get a distorted view. Instead of nominating Charlie Baker-esque moderate RINOs, the Mass. GOP went full trump, and all of their candidates lost by 20+ points. It's reassuring to know that trump's still toxic enough to sink candidates all over the country.

The head of the GOP in MA is a full blown MAGAt nut case. That party establishment is insane. The degree to which Healy routed Diehl is crazy for a state that traditionally likes to elect moderate GOP governors. But, you know what, let’s run a 100% MAGAt candidate. What could go wrong?

[Jaymann]

Beau weighs in on the election results:

[LordMortis]

Dunno if it's related but the energy sector is down almost 3% today and when I walked by the gas station gas was down to $3.79 from $4.09 yesterday.

[pr0ner]

Could this be what breaks the back of Trumps hold? This is 100 on him. They put up decent candidates and they be would have cleaned house.

This. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Dems.

As a Masshole, I get a distorted view. Instead of nominating Charlie Baker-esque moderate RINOs, the Mass. GOP went full trump, and all of their candidates lost by 20+ points. It's reassuring to know that trump's still toxic enough to sink candidates all over the country.

Same in Maryland. I doubt the Larry Hogan endorsed R for Governor would have won this year if she had been nominated, but she lost to a Trumpalo, who got crushed in the general (by a man who is now the third black governor in US history).

[malchior]

Lots of posts saying how there was little voter fraud cries. I guess not when the GOP why would they. If they'd lost you can bet they would.

They effectively did lose, though.

And if you are listening to them - they are saying it on the right. The big voices that get media attention haven't chimed in yet. Hopefully they won't but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Little Raven]

There are some rumblings, but overall, things are going swimmingly.

The mixed picture for election deniers emerged Wednesday after an Election Day that largely went smoothly, with what experts described as normal hiccups but no systemic problems or violence. Threats of raucous protests and partisan challengers intent on interfering with the process had not materialized, they said. They cautioned that the process will continue for days and could turn tense in close contests.

Suzanne Almeida, director of state operations for Common Cause, said late Tuesday that monitors were relieved by how quiet the day had been.

“I am happy to report that today has been relatively quiet on the political violence front,” she told reporters late Tuesday. “We were absolutely prepared for more significant incidents, but they simply have not come to fruition.”

That relative calm extended early Wednesday to the post-election democratic ritual of claiming victory and offering concessions.

Two years after Trump prematurely declared he had won a second term and falsely claimed widespread election fraud, Republican candidates he endorsed took a different tack, urging their supporters to be patient until the results were clear.

...

“I called Governor Whitmer this morning to concede and wish her well,” Dixon said in a statement emailed by her campaign. Dixon thanked her supporters and volunteers, saying, “we came up short, but we will never stop fighting for our families.”

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) said she choked up with relief when Dixon conceded — not because Dixon lost, but because she endorsed the democratic norm of acknowledging election results.

“One of the most significant markers of a successful, smooth election is when the losing candidate graciously concedes defeat,” Benson wrote in a text message. “So to see candidates who previously denied the accurate results in 2020’s election now graciously concede defeat in their own high profile races tells me we’ve truly succeeded in running a smooth and successful election in Michigan.”

Other election deniers also conceded their races after media organizations projected they would lose, even as votes remained to be counted.

Matthew DePerno, the Republican nominee for attorney general in Michigan and a prominent figure in the national movement claiming fraudulent elections, conceded to incumbent Dana Nessel (D) on Wednesday morning. “Although I may be conceding to Dana Nessel today, I refuse to concede that Michigan is a blue state,” DePerno posted on Twitter. “I will continue to fight like hell to restore Michigan to all it can be. Thank you to each and every one of you!”

Tim Michels, the Republican nominee for governor in Wisconsin, had refused to rule out attempting to “decertify” Joe Biden’s 2020 victory — something for which there is no mechanism in the law. But Michels conceded to incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, he told his supporters on election night. “the math doesn’t add up,” he said. “I wish the Evers family well.”

In Pennsylvania’s closely watched Senate race, widely seen as key to Democrats’ chances for maintaining control of that chamber, Trump-backed Mehmet Oz conceded Wednesday morning in a phone call to his Democratic opponent, John Fetterman, according to Fetterman’s campaign.

There are still a few holdouts, but it's becoming clear that the GOP as a whole has no stomach for what we saw in 2020.

[YellowKing]

Unfortunately all four seats on our local Board of Education were swept by Republicans. I guess the anti-CRT messaging paid off despite our county going mostly blue for everything else.

[ImLawBoy]

This is very good:

This is better than I could have hoped for. As long as Finichem loses in AZ I think all the election-denying SOS candidates lost.

Maybe Democracy will live for another 2 years.

Some of those are big but in Illinois, Bailey had no chance. He managed to get within 12% of Pritzker only because Uihlein and Griffin alone poured in over hundred million dollars into his campaign because those two billionaires don't like the other billionaire.

But that's the point. The Dems boosted Bailey in the primary because they knew he had no chance in the general. Richard Irvin (Black, relatively socially moderate, tough on crime) would have been a much bigger challenge to Pritzker, which is why Griffin poured so much money into his primary campaign.

[Little Raven]

Unfortunately all four seats on our local Board of Education were swept by Republicans. I guess the anti-CRT messaging paid off despite our county going mostly blue for everything else.

Cold comfort, I'm sure, but here in Round Rock and Leander (Austin suburbs) the conservative school board candidates all went down in flames.

[malchior]

AP just called WI for Ron Johnson. I would have loved more than to see that guy burn to the ground.

[stessier]

Unfortunately all four seats on our local Board of Education were swept by Republicans. I guess the anti-CRT messaging paid off despite our county going mostly blue for everything else.

The School Board person CP and I have been referencing campaigned on anti-CRT and keeping pr0n out of the school libraries. That second one was a big one for a lot of people.

[malchior]

Could this be what breaks the back of Trumps hold? This is 100 on him. They put up decent candidates and they be would have cleaned house.

This. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Dems.

As a Masshole, I get a distorted view. Instead of nominating Charlie Baker-esque moderate RINOs, the Mass. GOP went full trump, and all of their candidates lost by 20+ points. It's reassuring to know that trump's still toxic enough to sink candidates all over the country.

Big losses help too because it sort of takes it outside the realm of '2000 Mules' style vote dumps. Maybe. You never know with nitwits but still it's easier to process out when it's a big loss. Now if Ron Johnson had lost by 30K? That's a totally different ball game. But the hardcore base that gives Trump control? They aren't likely going to be dissuaded by this. Fox for example spent the whole night avoiding the Trump elephant (or were minimizing his fault).

[Grifman]

Trumps throwing fits:

[Little Raven]

Whitmer is rightfully deeply unpopular here and yet she won by a reasonable margin.

Are you sure she's unpopular? Whitmer is absolutely DUNKING on Dixon. If it's not a double digit difference, it'll be damn close. That would seem to demonstrate that Whitmer is one of the most popular governors in the whole country - I wouldn't be surprised to see her take a run at the White House if something happens to Biden.

[LawBeefaroni]

This is very good:

This is better than I could have hoped for. As long as Finichem loses in AZ I think all the election-denying SOS candidates lost.

Maybe Democracy will live for another 2 years.

Some of those are big but in Illinois, Bailey had no chance. He managed to get within 12% of Pritzker only because Uihlein and Griffin alone poured in over hundred million dollars into his campaign because those two billionaires don't like the other billionaire.

But that's the point. The Dems boosted Bailey in the primary because they knew he had no chance in the general. Richard Irvin (Black, relatively socially moderate, tough on crime) would have been a much bigger challenge to Pritzker, which is why Griffin poured so much money into his primary campaign.

Ken Griffin hates Pritzker. He didn't contribute to Irvin to help JB win. Unless he's been lying for a decade or more. Relocating to Florida is another amazingly deep long-con if he really wants to boost Dems in Illinois.

[LawBeefaroni]

Whitmer is rightfully deeply unpopular here and yet she won by a reasonable margin.

Are you sure she's unpopular? Whitmer is absolutely DUNKING on Dixon. If it's not a double digit difference, it'll be damn close. That would seem to demonstrate that Whitmer is one of the most popular governors in the whole country - I wouldn't be surprised to see her take a run at the White House if something happens to Biden.

We got some of her ads here. One of them was talking about how crazy inflation is and she said, "Even a box of cereal is $4!" while standing front of a rack of brand name cereals. I thought, "$4? Well, if that's the extent of inflation in Michigan, she'll do fine." The day before I bought a shrinkflated box of Cheerios for $6.50. On sale.

[malchior]

Whitmer polled well above 50% approval last month but Dixon is a crazy person. A crazy person who received ~2M votes! Sad!

[malchior]

Whitmer is rightfully deeply unpopular here and yet she won by a reasonable margin.

Are you sure she's unpopular? Whitmer is absolutely DUNKING on Dixon. If it's not a double digit difference, it'll be damn close. That would seem to demonstrate that Whitmer is one of the most popular governors in the whole country - I wouldn't be surprised to see her take a run at the White House if something happens to Biden.

We got some of her ads here. One of them was talking about how crazy inflation is and she said, "Even a box of cereal is $4!" while standing front of a rack of brand name cereals. I thought, "$4? Well, if that's the extent of inflation in Michigan, she'll do fine." The day before I bought a shrinkflated box of Cheerios for $6.50. On sale.

I'm always amazed by the variability. I shop pretty much exclusively at a Lidl. We went this morning and bought a different cereal adjacent to the Cheerios and similarly sized from General Mills for about $4. In NJ!