Octopus Overlords

We're gonna need more beer.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm Florida pulling so hard for him is VERY distressing and NC is now flipping hard to Trump. It's everything I've seen that there are a lot more Trump supporters than people realize. It's a fucking cult. I would love to come in tomorrow and realize I'm wrong, but I really don't think I am. We're fucking screwed.

This is true. We're clearly not seeing a repudiation of Trump. Maybe that'll change but we were expecting this to be sharper. Also perhaps expectations were too high for an early landslide and a landslide *still might happen*. We've been expecting that this election might take days but people are throwing in the towel at 10 PM before the mail-in votes have really started coming in.

If there was a mass break from Trump we would be seeing it by now. I really hope we somehow squeak out a win, but a message that Trumpism is bad is already dead. We suck as a country.

Lorini wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm Naw won't be over til at least Ohio and Michigan are in and they aren't in yet that I saw?

Yeah, I think it's way too early. Seems irresponsible to show "results" with 30% of votes like was just done for Michigan.

This is like calling a winner in a 2-1 game in the 2nd inning.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:13 pm Jones loses in Alabama.

Not surprising, but disappointing none-the-less.

Tuberville. Good lord.

This is all very discouraging. So far nothing has broken Biden's way, Trump has caught every break so far - it looks like Trump has drawn his inside straight for the second time in 4 years. Yeah, he had maybe a 10% chance, which is not nothing but doing it again? Republicans are now thinking they will flip NV due to the Hispanic vote, though we will see there. Who would have thought they would push Trump over? I am going to stop following things and go to bed soon, I fully expect to wake up to find Trump president for 4 more years, even though Biden will probably end up with more votes than Clinton, which is just crazy. The idea that he could mismanage a pandemic and trash the economy is just beyond me. I will just have to turn off the news for the next 4 years because I can't go another 4 years with Trump in my head over another outrageous dumb thing he's done/said. And these next 4 years are just going to be awful.

Lawbeefaroni wrote:Yeah, I think it's way too early. Seems irresponsible to show "results" with 30% of votes like was just done for Michigan.

And unlike past years, you've got an unprecedented amount of mail-in ballots that we haven't seen in previous elections. In what order are those being counted? We don't really know. Every state, and in many cases every county, is sending them in differently.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:28 pm

Lawbeefaroni wrote:Yeah, I think it's way too early. Seems irresponsible to show "results" with 30% of votes like was just done for Michigan.

And unlike past years, you've got an unprecedented amount of mail-in ballots that we haven't seen in previous elections. In what order are those being counted? We don't really know. Every state, and in many cases every county, is sending them in differently.

PA said maybe days. And they'll take ballots for the next 3 days. Georgia said mostly counted tomorrow. This was all expected. I'm really surprised that people have forgotten that most of this was expected (and was a worry for Trump prematurely declaring victory). The only real surprise so far is this Latino thing but even then that was something that was being talked about and might be priced in. We might not know for days.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:27 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:13 pm Jones loses in Alabama.

Not surprising, but disappointing none-the-less.

Tuberville. Good lord.

Goddammit!

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:26 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm Naw won't be over til at least Ohio and Michigan are in and they aren't in yet that I saw?

Yeah, I think it's way too early. Seems irresponsible to show "results" with 30% of votes like was just done for Michigan.

This is like calling a winner in a 2-1 game in the 2nd inning.

Exactly. They basically dropped the day of voting which was expected to be Trump heavy and haven't really updated much since.

Geez folks I'll give you another quote: "But Mr. Markman said it’s actually better to adopt an optimistic mind-set in the run-up to the returns. “Defensive pessimism is creating a fictitious state. You’re feeling pessimistic but you don’t really believe it. Deep down you think your candidate will win, but you’re telling yourself they won’t, so when the actual outcome happens it’ll hurt less. But that’s not how it works. So really you’ll be paying the price twice. Once for anticipatory period and again"

I guess some of you really thought Trumpism would be buried tonight? No, no, Trumpism has been with us for a long long time and isn't going anywhere. The point is to make sure that we get our voices heard in a way that we didn't four years ago. AZ is breaking for Biden which is an important state for him. Any races that have already been called for Biden and there are quite a few, will be even more Biden in a week, trust me.

Also please do not confuse Cuban Hispanics with the rest of the Latino world. They are an outlier in the scheme of things.

"Supermajority support for Democratic candidates is a pattern among Hispanic voters. In a December 2011 poll, 67% of Hispanics said they were Democrats, and 20% said they were Republicans. In the 2018 House of Representatives elections, 69% of Hispanics voted Democratic, while 29% voted Republican."

I didn’t think Trumpism would be buried, but I was hoping (expecting?) a much stronger overall signal that it is unwelcome here.

Think I’ll log for a bit and run some FF XIV raids and try to remain hopeful like you guys are.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm We're gonna need more beer.

I don’t know how you guys are getting through this evening... Not my election and I’m starting to feel sick. Come on, US. You’re better than this.

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:24 pm Even if Biden ultimately prevails, we Democrats are going to have to answer some hard questions about what went wrong. Particularly with Hispanics.

If you can't beat a historically inflammatory president who's got at least some of the blood of 235,000 Americans on his hands amidst a surging pandemic...well, you got some 'splainin to do.

I'm not feeling good about things, but not going to crawl into my pit of despair until at least tomorrow.

What is troubling to me is that the data we have shows that people who broke for Trump because they believe he will open the economy. And people who broke for Biden are worried about the effect of coronavirus. Essentially Trump will have mismanaged and lied his way into convincing people that dying for the economy is worth the sacrifice. That is really dark. And I'm not sure I care to live in a country that thinks that way. I'd be ok with talk about breaking this shit hole country up if that bears out to be true.

Tine wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:41 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm We're gonna need more beer.

I don’t know how you guys are getting through this evening... Not my election and I’m starting to feel sick. Come on, US. You’re better than this.

I mean, Colorado is, at least. Come on, literally any other state... Get it done.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:41 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:24 pm Even if Biden ultimately prevails, we Democrats are going to have to answer some hard questions about what went wrong. Particularly with Hispanics.

If you can't beat a historically inflammatory president who's got at least some of the blood of 235,000 Americans on his hands amidst a surging pandemic...well, you got some 'splainin to do.

I'm not feeling good about things, but not going to crawl into my pit of despair until at least tomorrow.

And one that is *OPENLY RACIST* against them. I mean WTF. I'd be happy to jump on the Democracy might have been a bad idea train with the millennials.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:44 pm I'd be happy to jump on the Democracy might have been a bad idea train with the millennials.

There are no better alternatives. The benevolent dictatorship thing just isn't coming together like I hoped.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:45 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:44 pm I'd be happy to jump on the Democracy might have been a bad idea train with the millennials.

There are no better alternatives. The benevolent dictatorship thing just isn't coming together like I hoped.

Yeah that was inarticulate. I'd jump on *our form of Democracy* was a bad idea. A system where one guy might get by 8 or 9 million more votes and lose is just plain broken.

Roy Cooper won re-election in NC. was that expected?

hitbyambulance wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:51 pm Roy Cooper won re-election in NC. was that expected?

Yes, wish he had had some coat tails for Biden and Cunningham.

Cal Cunningham is a fool. I don't know whether he would have won anyway, but he certainly did not help himself with his sex scandal. When will these people learn that stuff like that eventually gets out, especially in this day and age.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:42 pm What is troubling to me is that the data we have shows that people who broke for Trump because they believe he will open the economy. And people who broke for Biden are worried about the effect of coronavirus. Essentially Trump will have mismanaged and lied his way into convincing people that dying for the economy is worth the sacrifice. That is really dark. And I'm not sure I care to live in a country that thinks that way. I'd be ok with talk about breaking this shit hole country up if that bears out to be true.

I'm still thinking Biden is going to win but what little esteem I had for several states is completely gone now.

If you can't loudly repudiate Trump after seeing what he's got for 4 years, you're really beyond hope.

Some warning signs are that the polling on Cunningham and Graham look to be very off. And PA just dumped a ton of results and with 40% in Trump has a solid lead there now. This is the situation we talked about where Biden might win in 2-4 days but Trump's people cause mayhem in the meantime.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:43 pm

Tine wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:41 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm We're gonna need more beer.

I don’t know how you guys are getting through this evening... Not my election and I’m starting to feel sick. Come on, US. You’re better than this.

I mean, Colorado is, at least. Come on, literally any other state... Get it done.

Larimer County showed up for duty to kick ass and take names. We have our first dem DA and fully dem county commissioner group since I can remember (maybe ever?) and broke HARD for Biden and Hick. But small solace at this moment. And CO is bipolar as hell on our prop/amendment voting this year as always.

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:06 am Some warning signs are that the polling on Cunningham and Graham look to be very off. And PA just dumped a ton of results and with 40% in Trump has a solid lead there now. This is the situation we talked about where Biden might win in 2-4 days but Trump's people cause mayhem in the meantime.

So NE and ME special districts seem waaaaaay more important right now than I was hoping they would be at this point....

This is over. I’m done. Gonna play some video games, read some, then go to bed. No interest in watching this slow motion disaster play out in real time.

Tine wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:41 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm We're gonna need more beer.

I don’t know how you guys are getting through this evening... Not my election and I’m starting to feel sick. Come on, US. You’re better than this.

And, no. No, we are definitely not.

Kurth wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:17 am

Tine wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:41 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm We're gonna need more beer.

I don’t know how you guys are getting through this evening... Not my election and I’m starting to feel sick. Come on, US. You’re better than this.

And, no. No, we are definitely not.

That much is clear. Even if Biden wins, a huge portion of the country wants four more years of Trump. We suck.

Apparently, someone called Arizona for Biden.

Lets put blame where it belongs. This stupid system will have completely failed us again. Also the fear that Biden didn't have enough fight looks to be somewhat accurate. Many don't want decency. They want a fairy tale. One where we are great and thousands of people aren't dying every damn week.

Has anyone seen any information on NE-2 and how it's going?

The sites I've looked at aren't differentiating between the districts.

NY Times has shown that Trump has made gains across almost all Demographics. I'm shocked beyond belief. Blacks broke slightly more to Trump. Hispanics. Urban areas. This is so far but this is the greatest failure potentially in polling science and common sense that we could have imagined. It is crazy.

I'm done following this for tonight, but I'm not giving up hope until all the votes are counted. There are more than a million mail-in ballots in PA to be processed yet. It's going to come down to the former blue firewall -- PA, MA, WI -- and while they are all trending bad right now, they can still turn around.

Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 am Has anyone seen any information on NE-2 and how it's going?

The sites I've looked at aren't differentiating between the districts.

NPR using AP data does.

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:33 am NY Times has shown that Trump has made gains across almost all Demographics. I'm shocked beyond belief. Blacks broke slightly more to Trump. Hispanics. Urban areas. This is so far but this is the greatest failure potentially in polling science and common sense that we could have imagined. It is crazy.

I'm assuming you're drunk. I mean seriously.

AZ going to Biden is big. This is looking to be extremely tight.

BTW, if Trump wins FL, NC and GA and Biden wins AZ, Fivethrityeight's choose your own election adventure gives Biden an 75% chance of a win. (and 5% chance of a tie)

Lorini wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:38 am

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:33 am NY Times has shown that Trump has made gains across almost all Demographics. I'm shocked beyond belief. Blacks broke slightly more to Trump. Hispanics. Urban areas. This is so far but this is the greatest failure potentially in polling science and common sense that we could have imagined. It is crazy.

I'm assuming you're drunk. I mean seriously.

How so? The demos so far have shifted more towards Trump than Biden. It might not hold up but this is potentially far from the forecast. For example the NY Times has Hispanics +12 for Trump versus 2016. Blacks +2 versus 2016 which might just be statistical noise but still surprising if it gets larger.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:38 am

Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 am Has anyone seen any information on NE-2 and how it's going?

The sites I've looked at aren't differentiating between the districts.

NPR using AP data does.

Thanks!