OOWL Game 2, Wolf Victory

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 10:26 pm

Since they're going to kill me, I guess I'd better leave some parting thoughts.

bb2112 looks pretty bad to me, but if he's innocent they may try to frame him via my death. Y'all will just have to sort that out.

Remus also looks bad in about the same measure as Igrimnur. Beyond that, you're on your own.

Don't just blindly follow my little list. In these small games, there's not enough wiggle room to take random shots and hope for the best. Three strike and you're dead.

Good luck!

And remember, Mr. Seer: scan priority is:

1: A wolf, if you think you see one
2: A person likely to live who would be a good, discerning ally
3: A person likely to live

The lowest priority scan would be of somebody like me who's going to be proven in death anyhow. Take my exposure of the fiend triggercut as a seal of trust. Scans must retain their value right up to the point where you reveal them, and that doesn't happen when the people you scanned are dead.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 11:03 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:bb2112 looks pretty bad to me, but if he's innocent they may try to frame him via my death. Y'all will just have to sort that out.

Come to think of it, bb2112 was quite willing to vote against triggercut at my instigation without putting up even minimal resistance or hedging.

I think this means that bb2112 is probably good, not evil. So I'm officially changing my mind on that.

Remus and Isgrimnur are the interesting ones, then. Plus everyone else.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 11:10 pm

Odd that you find me interesting in a wolfish manner given it was my move away from theohall that led directly to triggercut getting lynched. Do you really believe that if I sat with my vote on theohall nobody would have pushed him over the edge instead of triggercut?

I agree that bb2112 looks very human given his actions this day as do you given yours though.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 20, 2011 11:17 pm

Remus West wrote:Odd that you find me interesting in a wolfish manner given it was my move away from theohall that led directly to triggercut getting lynched. Do you really believe that if I sat with my vote on theohall nobody would have pushed him over the edge instead of triggercut?
I agree that bb2112 looks very human given his actions this day as do you given yours though.

I'll consider your argument. It's not a slam dunk, though, since the very best way for a wolf to survive and win in these games is to seem extremely human, and an opportunistic team kill is one way of achieving that effect.

Scoop, by the way, interacted with me in aggressive, snotty mode. He usually does that only when he's confident, and he's usually confident only when he's evil.

So then: if you believe that Remus's move from theohall to triggercut probably exonerates Remus just as bb2112's move probably exonerates him, then it would definitely make good sense to test Scoop and Isgrimnur by lynch while the Seer scans one of the silents.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:06 am

Given your argument against me that the best way for a wolf to survive is to appear human why do you continue to direct the Seer away from any of us? While I think it to early for giving up a partner I know you and I arranged to go after each other from day 1 when we were both evil in the past so I do not completely discount the possibility of you being evil. Time will tell. Let the Seer scan where they feel best.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:11 am

Didn't mean to come off snotty.

Also, Grund, and I am not trying to kiss your ass here but I have no idea how to find the wolves.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:27 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Didn't mean to come off snotty.

I know. That's why it comes across as a tell.

Also, Grund, and I am not trying to kiss your ass here but I have no idea how to find the wolves.

It's a gift.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:30 am

Remus West wrote:I know you and I arranged to go after each other from day 1 when we were both evil in the past so I do not completely discount the possibility of you being evil. Time will tell. Let the Seer scan where they feel best.

The cool thing about the "Grund is evil" theme is that there's only one way to sustain it: let me live. That means that the remaining wolf has to weigh (a) the fun of trying to frame me over against (b) the threat I pose if permitted to live.

The only way I'm evil in this game is if triggercut and I conspired specifically to eliminate him again on the first turn in order to buy me some credibility. Although I grant that that sort of scheme is attractive to me, I wouldn't undertake it when the cost is Yet Another game in which trig barely has a chance to flex his muscles.

Ergo, I'm good and will be slain in the night.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:05 am

Way to go Grund. Nice job. Good job to Remus too, for instigating the switch. You guys are my heroes.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 7:21 am

theohall wrote: triggercut

Let's not forget this, too. theohall was on triggercut early.

Someone should do a vote recap.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:03 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote: triggercut

Let's not forget this, too. theohall was on triggercut early.

Someone should do a vote recap.

Two reasons for that vote:

1) Your take on triggercut, his principle, his lack of participation
2) Me being at N-1 and triggercut having the opportunity to finish me off, yet did not cast that killing vote and didn't have a vote on anyone.

It was the combination of those two factors which led to that vote. But it wasn't the impetus which caused others to change their mind - except Remus who, to me, surprisingly, switched to triggercut. Remus's post, including mentioning the deadline, caused the others to pile on.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:39 am

Great job, guys. Why doesn't matter now, just the results. Has there ever been a last-minute run that's netted a wolf before?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:47 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Great job, guys. Why doesn't matter now, just the results. Has there ever been a last-minute run that's netted a wolf before?

Yes.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:08 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Someone should do a vote recap.

Lassr acc Scoop(1)
Remus West acc triggercut(1)
triggercut acc Remus West(1)
bb2112 acc Isgrimnur(1)
Isgrimnur acc bb2112(1)
Remus West wd triggercut(0)
Remus West acc Isgrimnur(2)
Remus West wd Isgrimnur(1)
Remus West acc Remus West(2)
triggercut wd Remus West(1)
theohall acc Scoop(2)
Scoop acc theohall(1)
triggercut acc Grundbegriff(1)
Isgrimnur wd bb2112(0)
Isgrimnur acc Grundbegriff(2)
theohall wd Scoop(1)
theohall acc bb2112(1)
bb2112 wd Isgrimnur(0)
bb2112 acc theohall(2)
RMC acc theohall(3)
Remus West wd Remus West(0)
Remus West acc Grundbegriff(3)
triggercut wd Grundbegriff(2)
Remus west wd Grundbegriff(1)
Isgrimnur wd Grundbegriff(0)
theohall wd bb2112(0)
theohall acc Grundbegriff(1)
bb2112 wd theohall(2)
bb2112 acc Grundbegriff(2)
Remus West acc bb2112(1)
Isgrimnur acc Scoop(2)
Lassr acc Isgrimnur(1)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(1)
bb2112 wd Grundbegriff(1)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd triggercut(1)
Grundbegriff acc bb2112(2)
bb2112 wd triggercut(0)
bb2112 acc Isgrimnur(3)
Remus West wd bb2112(1)
Remus West acc theohall(3)
bb2112 wd Isgrimnur(2)
bb2112 acc theohall(4)
theohall wd Grundbegriff(0)
theohall acc triggercut(1)
Remus West wd theohall(3)
Remus West acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd bb2112(0)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(3)
bb2112 wd theohall(2)
bb2112 acc triggercut(4)
Lassr wd Isgrimnur(0)
Lassr acc triggercut(5), killing him

Against Scoop(1): Lassr, theohall, Isgrimnur
Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr
Against Remus West(1): triggercut, Remus
Against Isgrimnur(0): bb2112, Remus, Lassr, bb2112
Against bb2112(0): Isgrimnur, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff
Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112
Against Grundbegriff(0): triggercut, Isgrimnur, Remus, theohall, bb2112

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:11 pm

Questions:

1. Why didn't theohall die when he was at (4) == N-1? triggercut could've slain him but did not. Why would a wolf not take advantage of this perfect cover?

2. Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112

3. Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr

The fact that theohall was first on the final (i.e., third) run on triggercut does not at all imply that theohall is innocent.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:15 pm

theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Let's not forget this, too. theohall was on triggercut early.
Two reasons for that vote:

1) Your take on triggercut, his principle, his lack of participation
2) Me being at N-1 and triggercut having the opportunity to finish me off, yet did not cast that killing vote and didn't have a vote on anyone.

It was the combination of those two factors which led to that vote. But it wasn't the impetus which caused others to change their mind - except Remus who, to me, surprisingly, switched to triggercut. Remus's post, including mentioning the deadline, caused the others to pile on.

Why didn't triggercut kill you?
If you're not a wolf, then why didn't triggercut's partner kill you? (Perhaps he was already voting against you.)

I think this situation implies one of two things.

EITHER
theohall is the other wolf
XOR
one of the four people who were on theohall when he reached N-1 is the other wolf: Scoop, RMC, Remus West, bb2112

The thing to do, then, is to look for signs of unforced non-wolfy innocence among these.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:20 pm

I will say I was at work when the bulk of this went down and then in class when the real action was going on. I didn't get home Tuesday until almost 9:30.

And my vote on Theo was just a blind poke at someone, no evidence to support it.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:24 pm

The fact that Remus West voted against triggercut early, and then voted against him in position 2/5, does not at all exonerate Remus. He could still be a wolf and do these things.
The fact that bb2112 voted against triggercut early, and then voted against him in position 2/5, does not at all exonerate bb2112. He could still be a wolf and do these things.
The fact that theohall revived the vote against triggercut does not exonerate theohall.
Scoop and RMC were on the vote against theohall, but neither joined the vote against triggercut.

Votes by target==triggercut
Remus West acc triggercut(1)
Remus West wd triggercut(0)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(1)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd triggercut(1)
bb2112 wd triggercut(0)
theohall acc triggercut(1)
Remus West acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(3)
bb2112 acc triggercut(4)
Lassr acc triggercut(5), killing him

Votes by voter

bb2112 acc Isgrimnur(1)
bb2112 wd Isgrimnur(0)
bb2112 acc theohall(2)
bb2112 wd theohall(2)
bb2112 acc Grundbegriff(2)
bb2112 wd Grundbegriff(1)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
bb2112 wd triggercut(0)
bb2112 acc Isgrimnur(3)
bb2112 wd Isgrimnur(2)
bb2112 acc theohall(4)
bb2112 wd theohall(2)
bb2112 acc triggercut(4)

Grundbegriff acc triggercut(1)
Grundbegriff wd triggercut(1)
Grundbegriff acc bb2112(2)
Grundbegriff wd bb2112(0)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(3)

Isgrimnur acc bb2112(1)
Isgrimnur wd bb2112(0)
Isgrimnur acc Grundbegriff(2)
Isgrimnur wd Grundbegriff(0)
Isgrimnur acc Scoop(2)

Lassr acc Scoop(1)
Lassr wd Scoop(0)
Lassr acc Isgrimnur(1)
Lassr wd Isgrimnur(0)
Lassr acc triggercut(5), killing him

Remus West acc triggercut(1)
Remus West wd triggercut(0)
Remus West acc Isgrimnur(2)
Remus West wd Isgrimnur(1)
Remus West acc Remus West(2)
Remus West wd Remus West(0)
Remus West acc Grundbegriff(3)
Remus west wd Grundbegriff(1)
Remus West acc bb2112(1)
Remus West wd bb2112(1)
Remus West acc theohall(3)
Remus West wd theohall(3)
Remus West acc triggercut(2)

RMC acc theohall(3)

Scoop acc theohall(1)

theohall acc Scoop(2)
theohall wd Scoop(1)
theohall acc bb2112(1)
theohall wd bb2112(0)
theohall acc Grundbegriff(1)
theohall wd Grundbegriff(0)
theohall acc triggercut(1)

triggercut acc Remus West(1)
triggercut wd Remus West(1)
triggercut acc Grundbegriff(1)
triggercut wd Grundbegriff(2)

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:26 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Let's not forget this, too. theohall was on triggercut early.
Two reasons for that vote:

1) Your take on triggercut, his principle, his lack of participation
2) Me being at N-1 and triggercut having the opportunity to finish me off, yet did not cast that killing vote and didn't have a vote on anyone.

It was the combination of those two factors which led to that vote. But it wasn't the impetus which caused others to change their mind - except Remus who, to me, surprisingly, switched to triggercut. Remus's post, including mentioning the deadline, caused the others to pile on.
Why didn't triggercut kill you?
If you're not a wolf, then why didn't triggercut's partner kill you? (Perhaps he was already voting against you.)

I think this situation implies one of two things.

EITHER
theohall is the other wolf
XOR
one of the four people who were on theohall when he reached N-1 is the other wolf: Scoop, RMC, Remus West, bb2112

The thing to do, then, is to look for signs of unforced non-wolfy innocence among these.

I am going to wait until night ends to comment because I could be dead also.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:50 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:I think this situation implies one of two things.

EITHER
theohall is the other wolf
XOR
one of the four people who were on theohall when he reached N-1 is the other wolf: Scoop, RMC, Remus West, bb2112

The thing to do, then, is to look for signs of unforced non-wolfy innocence among these.

Combined with the micro-tell mentioned here, the preponderance of the evidence sure seems to indict Scoop20906.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:09 pm

How many votes were on theohall when he placed his vote on triggercut? I would think that an interesting piece of information. If theohall felt he was going to go down due to approaching deadline and being the much closer to majority than any other option he might want to throw a vote at his partner in an attempt to give him cover (and what a spectacular blow up in face that would be if true).

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:14 pm

Remus West wrote:How many votes were on theohall when he placed his vote on triggercut? I would think that an interesting piece of information. If theohall felt he was going to go down due to approaching deadline and being the much closer to majority than any other option he might want to throw a vote at his partner in an attempt to give him cover (and what a spectacular blow up in face that would be if true).

I believe Theo was at N-1

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:17 pm

Remus West wrote:How many votes were on theohall when he placed his vote on triggercut?

The fourth vote had just been placed on him:
...
Remus West acc theohall(3)
bb2112 wd Isgrimnur(2)
bb2112 acc theohall(4)
theohall wd Grundbegriff(0)
theohall acc triggercut(1)
Remus West wd theohall(3)
Remus West acc triggercut(2)
...

But if theohall and triggercut are both wolves, then what sense would it make for theohall to deflect attention from himself by guiding attention toward his partner?

If theohall felt he was going to go down due to approaching deadline and being the much closer to majority than any other option he might want to throw a vote at his partner in an attempt to give him cover (and what a spectacular blow up in face that would be if true).

Ah-- so not to deflect attention from himself, but in the belief that he's about to die to give his partner cover.

Seems imprudent. I don't think it's likely that a dying wolf would call attention to his partner that way.

If he's innocent, perhaps theohall languished at 4 votes because (a) one wolf was already on him, and (b) the other wolf just happened to be away from keyboard!

For example, if Scoop already had a vote on theohall and triggercut happened not to be around at the vital moment....

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:34 pm

I'm not down playing the idea of there being a Wolf on theohall. I am offering another possible scenario.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:15 pm

I believe both scenarios (theo as wolf and wolf on theo) were already mentioned here.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:29 pm

Remus West wrote:I'm not down playing the idea of there being a Wolf on theohall. I am offering another possible scenario.

Remus is the other wolf.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:58 pm

After a restless night, the villagers reassembled at first light.

This time, however, there was no Grieg playing.

There was no Grundbegriff either. Well, not all of him, anyway.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:03 am

1. RMC
2. Remus West
3. Isgrimnur
5. bb2112
6. scoop20906
8. theohall
9. lassr

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night

Majority is 4.
Deadline is Sunday at midnight.

Mod note - I realize that this 72 hour deadline places us at a weekend cutoff. If everyone can PM me a yes/no as to whether they are fine with that ASAP, I'd appreciate it. If a majority disagree, I'll push it back 24 hours.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:08 am

Remus West

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:46 am

theohall wrote: Remus West

Wow. That is remarkably bad.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:26 am

Isgrimnur

suspected him a little on the first day and Grund added him to his threat list so why not.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:32 am

Lassr wrote: Isgrimnur

suspected him a little on the first day and Grund added him to his threat list so why not.

I'm leaning that direction.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:58 am

I kind of like the idea of testing Scoop today. Didn't he have the opportunity to put the final vote on Trig but chose not to? The same guy who said it shouldn't be that hard to get to 5 votes?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:49 am

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Everyone still wants to march to the Grundbeat and see what they want to see...

Grundbegriff wrote:So then: if you believe that Remus's move from theohall to triggercut probably exonerates Remus just as bb2112's move probably exonerates him, then it would definitely make good sense to test Scoop and Isgrimnur by lynch while the Seer scans one of the silents.

Grundbegriff wrote:I think this situation implies one of two things.

EITHER
theohall is the other wolf
XOR
one of the four people who were on theohall when he reached N-1 is the other wolf: Scoop, RMC, Remus West, bb2112

The thing to do, then, is to look for signs of unforced non-wolfy innocence among these.

Grund's threat list is many and varied. He suggests six different people as the final wolf.

So you go right on ahead and use his meanderings as justification for a vote. I'll remember that the next time he points a finger at you, Lassr.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:08 am

1. RMC - suspect
2. Remus West - know is innocent
3. Isgrimnur - suspect
5. bb2112 - suspect is innocent
6. scoop20906 - suspect
8. theohall - suspect is innocent/mild suspicion
9. lassr - low suspicion

My prime suspects right now are easily Scoop and Isgrimnur.
I agree with Isgrimnur that using Grund's finger pointing as reasoning is weak at best. There are other reasons to suspect him though.
That said, using the fact Grund pointed as reason is weak. Agreeing with the thought process Grund shared in forming his ideas is valid. I think his analysis of Scoop's behavior is very interesting and on target.

Scoop

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:09 am

bb2112 wrote:I kind of like the idea of testing Scoop today. Didn't he have the opportunity to put the final vote on Trig but chose not to? The same guy who said it shouldn't be that hard to get to 5 votes?

This is well-reasoned.

withdraw Remus West

Scoop20906

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:09 am

Isgrimnur wrote: I'll remember that the next time he points a finger at you, Lassr.

Combative..hmmm.

I think if you read you would see you were on my list yesterday (I did vote for you) and you showed up on one of Grund's many lists. So I'm not voting for you just because you are on his list, it is because you are on both of our lists.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:16 am

I have memory issues when it comes to these games. Anything that happened more than a page ago is lost to the mists of time. You post a vote with only the Grund reasoning, I'm going to assume that's the only reason.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:19 am

Lassr wrote: Isgrimnur

for his use of random.org to place his vote. Just like a wolf; can't think for himself.

And looking back now, your first vote seemed like a throwaway, given the reason that I used random.org. But if there's a third reason you'd like to trot out for the vote that you didn't post, perhaps one that actually has some decent logic in it, let me know. I think your single-mindedness in this regard for fluff reasons is not helping.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:31 am

Scoop

N-1