OOWL Game 1 OVER

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:17 am

Slow-acting wolves, too.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:44 pm

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:05 pm

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:36 pm

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:03 pm

F5
F5
F5
F5
...

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:05 pm

holy crap, what is going on! I thought there was a time limit for nights too?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:06 pm

Night is at 52 hrs and counting...

Not that I'm really counting or anything.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:56 pm

bb2112 wrote:Night is at 52 hrs and counting...

Not that I'm really counting or anything.

Umm... Sure your not...

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:05 pm

53 hrs and not counting

Remus, if the wolves fail to kill someone before the time expires for night, do they miss their kill and does it become day?

just asking...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:54 pm

The hold up has been on my end. All orders that need to be in were sent, I just have not had any time to write it up today. Give me a couple hours and it will be up.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:46 pm

The village (well, most of them) awoke to a sign written in blood. "Nummy nummy in our tummy tummy. You're next."
triggercut (small pieces of him anyway) was spread across the field. The wolves were certainly still active. It is day.

1. pr0ner -
2. Qantaga -
3. Isgrimnur -
5. RMC -
6. theohall -
7. bb2112 -
8. Grundbegriff -

Majority is 4.

Votes:

deadline is Wednesday 9/7 at 5:00 pm EST

and yes, I realize that after making you all wait this long that was a pretty lame write up. Still working on housework and GIMP.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:51 pm

Remus West wrote:The village (well, most of them) awoke to a sign written in blood. "Nummy nummy in our tummy tummy. You're next."
triggercut (small pieces of him anyway) was spread across the field.

Fascinating.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:30 pm

Damn, I was going to try and get him lynched today. Now I'm befuddled. He was my top suspect (as I have not so subtly posted

).

Grund, I've been waiting to ask this question throughout the extremely long night. Why didn't you wait to see if we could have gotten a lynch train on Trig going before you put the final vote on Newcastle?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:52 pm

bb2112 wrote:Grund, I've been waiting to ask this question throughout the extremely long night. Why didn't you wait to see if we could have gotten a lynch train on Trig going before you put the final vote on Newcastle?

I didn't think triggercut was a wolf. I thought Newcastle might be.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:02 pm

Let's see....

Here's how each voter voted yesterday. Targets are given in order by voter.

bb2112: theohall, triggercut, Grundbegriff, triggercut
Grundbegriff: pr0ner, theohall, triggercut, Newcastle
Isgrimnur: RMC, Newcastle
Newcastle: triggercut, Grundbegriff, triggercut
pr0ner: Newcastle
RMC: triggercut, theohall
theohall: RMC, pr0ner
triggercut: bb2112, Grundbegriff, Newcastle

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:05 pm

Let's analyze. I know I'm innocent, so I'm marking myself green along with the provens.

bb2112: theohall, triggercut, Grundbegriff, triggercut
Grundbegriff: pr0ner, theohall, triggercut, Newcastle
Isgrimnur: RMC, Newcastle
Newcastle: triggercut, Grundbegriff, triggercut
pr0ner: Newcastle
Qantaga: Newcastle
RMC: triggercut, theohall
theohall: RMC, pr0ner
triggercut: bb2112, Grundbegriff, Newcastle

Qantaga didn't vote.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:10 pm

grumble. I had this half baked theory that you pushed Newcastle over the edge to protect Trig and then were going to work out a way to shift the focus today to someone else.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:11 pm

Grundbegriff wrote: Qantaga didn't vote.

Untrue.

Qantaga: Newcastle

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:15 pm

Qantaga wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote: Qantaga didn't vote.

Untrue.

Qantaga: Newcastle

Ah, there it is.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:18 pm

bb2112 wrote:grumble. I had this half baked theory that you pushed Newcastle over the edge to protect Trig and then were going to work out a way to shift the focus today to someone else.

Well, you're half right. I'll be aiming to shift the focus to someone else!

FWIW, it seems to me that killing triggercut was a tactical error.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:27 pm

Pr0ner or Grundbegriff

Still don't like pr0ner

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:29 pm

Grundbegriff wrote: FWIW, it seems to me that killing triggercut was a tactical error.

FWIW I agree.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:34 pm

trig's death can be laid at quite a few feet:

1. bb2112: Near the end, trig seemed fairly well obsessed with bb.

2. Me: trig thought me suspicious because I was relatively quiet Day 1 and because he perceived me as jumping on "his" Newcastle vote.

3. Grund: He was obviously suspicious of Grund (misguided or wolfy?) and considered Grund to be an end game problem.

4. Isgrimnur: He thought Isgrimnur was playing similar to his bad guy Star Wars' persona.

On trig's "good" side:

5. RMC: He said he was having a hard time reading RMC, but was satisfied with RMC's explanation of the early game miscue.

6 and 7: pr0ner and theohall: trig seemed to regard them as villagers.

So, was trig killed by wolves afraid of trig's attention? Or by wolves off trig's radar to cast suspicion on those high on trig's threat list?

What seems most likely to me is a mix of the two, that there would be one wolf in the group of {bb2112, Qantaga, Grund, Isgrimnur} and one wolf in the group og {RMC, theohall, pr0ner}. Otherwise, they would have probably chosen a different target.

Grundbegriff wrote:FWIW, it seems to me that killing triggercut was a tactical error.

That would indeed seem to be the case. It seems trig would have been a polarizing figure today and have a moderate to high likelihood of attracting a lynch.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:34 pm

Here's how the votes played out in sequence. Votes superseded by later votes are under erasure.

Isgrimnur acc RMC(1)
theohall acc RMC(2)
Newcastle acc triggercut(1)
RMC acc triggercut(2)
RMC wd triggercut(1)
RMC acc theohall(1)
Grundbegriff acc pr0ner(1)
theohall wd RMC(1)
theohall acc pr0ner(2)
Grundbegriff wd pr0ner(0)
Grundbegriff acc theohall(2)
bb2112 acc theohall(3)
triggercut acc bb2112(1)
bb2112 wd theohall(2)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd theohall(1)
Grundbegriff acc triggercut(3)
triggercut wd bb2112(0)
triggercut acc Grundbegriff(1)
Newcastle wd triggercut(2)
Newcastle acc Grundbegriff(2)
Newcastle wd Grundbegriff(1)
Newcastle acc triggercut(3)
triggercut wd Grundbegriff(0)
triggercut acc Newcastle(1)
Qantaga acc Newcastle(2)
pr0ner acc Newcastle(3)
Newcastle wd triggercut(2)
bb2112 wd triggercut(1)
bb2112 acc Grundbegriff(1)
Isgrimnur wd RMC(0)
Isgrimnur acc Newcastle(4)
bb2112 wd Grundbegriff(0)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd triggercut(1)
Grundbegriff acc Newcastle(5), killing him

Against RMC: Isgrimnur, theohall
Against triggercut: Newcastle, RMC, bb2112, Grundbegriff, Newcastle, bb2112
Against theohall: RMC, Grundbegriff, bb2112
Against pr0ner: Grundbegriff, theohall
Against bb2112: triggercut
Against Grundbegriff: triggercut, Newcastle, bb2112
Against Newcastle: triggercut, Qantaga, pr0ner, Isgrimnur, Grundbegriff

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:36 pm

triggercut wrote:So here's the thing:

I think there's a decent chance I'll swing soon. Dunno. I think one of the three votes on me is a wolf vote, and I think the wolves may get antsy and put a second on me. Maybe not. Still...a threat matrix.

1. pr0ner--playing like pr0ner usually does when he's a villager, or at least that's my impression.

2. Qantaga--fairly quiet without saying too much of import, just enough to not appear silent. Seems very suspicious.

3. Isgrimnur--can't get a good read yet....but playing a lot like he did when he was a badguy in the Star Wars game.

4. Newcastle--quiet, and then posts an accusation against me without having seemingly comprehended one post and without having read any of bb2112's accusations. Either a Wolf, or a villager who's elimination would give the villagers a better chance at succeeding.

5. RMC--hard for me to get a read on.

6. theohall--seems...village-y?

7. bb2112--of two minds. everything posted seems kosher...except for that curious twofer of posts in the early evening tonight. Would like to see some explanation, but moving down my threat list at the moment.

8. Grundbegriff--misguided or wolfy? Don't like the edit, don't like that he's hellbent on ushering a known villager--(that'd be ME, Newcastle)--out of the game. Grund feels like an endgame problem more and more.

9. triggercut--Villager.

This is one of Triggercuts analysis of us all. Now we need to decide if the wolves offed him, because of one of these posts he made, or just because he was making them, not if he was accurate...
Let's assume he was kind of close. This means trigs main suspects were:
Grund, Q and Isgrimnur

I think both me and BB made the wait and see list. I know I am good, but you would all have to take my word for it.

And he thinks Pr0ner is a good guy. So if we cross reference this with the people that voted for newcastle:

Newcastle - 5 - triggercut, Qantaga, pr0ner, Isgrimnur, Grundbegriff

It looks like Trigs main suspects were all on that vote.

<shrug> Not sure what that tells us, but in this small of a game, the wolves might run from a lynch vote this early. Which would leave:
me(RMC), theohall, and BB

I would bet that their is one wolf on each list, with a 33% chance to get it right on list two. And I know I am good,so that makes it a 50-50 I think we should vote for either:
BB or Theohall

Trig did not have much to say about Theohall other than a big 'ole ?? and seems villag..y.

So what does everyone think? Is my logic at least somewhat passable? Even though I am in the second group, I think that is most likely our best percentage group to find a wolf.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:39 pm

I need to go reread and sharpen my pencil. I will revisit this on the weekend.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:40 pm

Well I see while I was composing my post Q came up with basically the same thing I said.

So I think a good vote today is BB2112,

But I still want to vote for Theo, just because Trig was not after him, and if he is the wolf it would be the best time to lynch Trig and have a great patsy in BB2112.

Of course that might be what the wolves want me to think...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:41 pm

What do you think, theohall?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:45 pm

RMC wrote:Well I see while I was composing my post Q came up with basically the same thing I said.

Did he?

Qantaga wrote: What seems most likely to me is a mix of the two, that there would be one wolf in the group of
{bb2112, Qantaga, Grund, Isgrimnur}
and one wolf in the group of
{RMC, theohall, pr0ner}.

RMC wrote:This means trigs main suspects were:
Grund, Q and Isgrimnur

...
Which would leave:
me(RMC), theohall, and BB

I would bet that their is one wolf on each list

Looks to me as if Qantaga said something rather different from what you said.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:56 pm

Grundbegriff wrote: triggercut acc Newcastle(1)
Qantaga acc Newcastle(2)
pr0ner acc Newcastle(3)
Newcastle wd triggercut(2)
bb2112 wd triggercut(1)
bb2112 acc Grundbegriff(1)
Isgrimnur wd RMC(0)
Isgrimnur acc Newcastle(4)
bb2112 wd Grundbegriff(0)
bb2112 acc triggercut(2)
Grundbegriff wd triggercut(1)
Grundbegriff acc Newcastle(5), killing him

Against RMC: Isgrimnur, theohall
Against triggercut: Newcastle, RMC, bb2112, Grundbegriff, Newcastle, bb2112
Against theohall: RMC, Grundbegriff, bb2112
Against pr0ner: Grundbegriff, theohall
Against bb2112: triggercut
Against Grundbegriff: triggercut, Newcastle, bb2112
Against Newcastle: triggercut, Qantaga, pr0ner, Isgrimnur, Grundbegriff

The wolves knew Newcastle was innocent. So the key information appears from the moment triggercut started what became a bandwagon on Newcastle.

The orange people behaved differently from the blue. The orange ones joined the bandwagon that would lead to close of day. The blue one avoided the bandwagon that would lead to close of day.

So the key question is this: would Wolf01 (a) hop opportunistically onto that bandwagon, xor (b) take action elsewhere, xor (c) do nothing once it was underway?

The secondary question is this: what would Wolf02 do in tandem with Wolf01's doing (a), (b), xor (c)?

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:29 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
RMC wrote:Well I see while I was composing my post Q came up with basically the same thing I said.
Did he?
Qantaga wrote: What seems most likely to me is a mix of the two, that there would be one wolf in the group of
{bb2112, Qantaga, Grund, Isgrimnur}
and one wolf in the group of
{RMC, theohall, pr0ner}.

RMC wrote:This means trigs main suspects were:
Grund, Q and Isgrimnur

...
Which would leave:
me(RMC), theohall, and BB

I would bet that their is one wolf on each list
Looks to me as if Qantaga said something rather different from what you said.

Well it looks very close to the same to me. He added Pr0ner, and I took him out as one just because Trig did. And I only really focused on the three not on the newcastle vote assuming one wolf would be in that group..

But what does this 'difference' show you?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:21 am

Isgrimnur

2 reasons.

1. I didn't like the way he jumped on the Newcastle vote to bring Newcastle to N-1.
2. Time to poke the silents. I would rather not go into the final phase of the game without any info.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:00 am

I see Theo has continued his quest against me based on his house of lies and deceit.

Why would he have to lie so much to make a case against me? There can be only one reason.

Theohall

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:26 am

May I recommend that we shy away from all voting until we've had a chance to discuss this?

We have, after all, 2 wolves and a majority threshold of only 4 votes.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:29 am

Grundbegriff wrote:May I recommend that we shy away from all voting until we've had a chance to discuss this?

We have, after all, 2 wolves and a majority threshold of only 4 votes.

Point. This is not the 20 person games of the last few.

withdraw Isgrimnur

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:31 am

theohall acc pr0ner(1)
bb2112 acc Isgrimnur(1)
pr0ner acc theohall(1)

Majority == 4

Against pr0ner(1): theohall
Against Isgrimnur(1): bb2112
Against theohall(1): pr0ner

No vote registered:
Grundbegriff, Isgrimnur, Qantaga, RMC

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:33 am

The start of yesterday's voting wrote: Isgrimnur acc RMC(1)
theohall acc RMC(2)
Newcastle acc triggercut(1)
RMC acc triggercut(2)
RMC wd triggercut(1)
RMC acc theohall(1)
Grundbegriff acc pr0ner(1)
theohall wd RMC(1)
theohall acc pr0ner(2)
Grundbegriff wd pr0ner(0)
Grundbegriff acc theohall(2)
...

I find this very interesting. Especially in combination with this at 8:27 pm EST and this at 08:41 pm EST.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:37 am

Given the data, I think the wiser course might be for everyone to think hard, say not too much, and then act.

Given the choice between theohall and pr0ner, I'm thinking
pr0ner

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:41 pm

How much less quiet would you like me to be? I put my vote on newcastle not through any true belief in his wolfdom, but because we were getting close to a deadline, and us not lynching someone at all is never a good option.

I could easily see going with Grund, as he's marching in the lead role and cast the kill vote. I honestly think that it has the potential for a wolfy play, as we all assume that no wolf would do it and attract attention to himself in that manner.

And then there's Qantaga, who always looks wolfy to me.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:43 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:How much less quiet would you like me to be?

I'm just recommending an insightful look at the evidence.