The Viral Economy

[Jaymann]

Thanks, Biden!

[Kraken]

To the extent that anyone ever gets credit for crises averted, Biden and Walsh have earned it.

[Max Peck]

They've timed this perfectly. With rampant inflation, who's even going to notice a measly 2.4% surcharge? And I'm sure that business that have had credit card fees baked into the product price for decades now will be sure to adjust their prices accordingly and not simply take the windfall.

Paying with a credit card? Expect to see a fee when you shop under new rules that start now (Canada)

With record-high inflation, Canadian shoppers are well aware that the cost of just about everything is going up.

But they can soon expect to see a new demand for their dollars when they shop, because starting Thursday, retailers and other businesses will be allowed to charge them a fee every time they swipe their credit card once notice is provided to card companies.

While consumers love the convenience and rewards of paying with credit cards, they have raised the ire of retailers for years because as part of the original card agreements, stores had to give a percentage of every sale to the card providers for making the transaction happen. The fee can range from fractions of a per cent to more than two per cent for some premium cards.

[LordMortis]

They've timed this perfectly. With rampant inflation, who's even going to notice a measly 2.4% surcharge? And I'm sure that business that have had credit card fees baked into the product price for decades now will be sure to adjust their prices accordingly and not simply take the windfall.

Paying with a credit card? Expect to see a fee when you shop under new rules that start now (Canada)

With record-high inflation, Canadian shoppers are well aware that the cost of just about everything is going up.

But they can soon expect to see a new demand for their dollars when they shop, because starting Thursday, retailers and other businesses will be allowed to charge them a fee every time they swipe their credit card once notice is provided to card companies.

While consumers love the convenience and rewards of paying with credit cards, they have raised the ire of retailers for years because as part of the original card agreements, stores had to give a percentage of every sale to the card providers for making the transaction happen. The fee can range from fractions of a per cent to more than two per cent for some premium cards.

If that happens in the US, I'll start going back to cash and actually take the time balance books with a debit card. I wouldn't blame retailers but the convenience of using a credit card for nearly everything is not worth $24 a month or so i would have to pay. I can hit an ATM a few times a month and switch over my monthly recurring bills.

[gilraen]

If that happens in the US, I'll start going back to cash and actually take the time balance books with a debit card. I wouldn't blame retailers but the convenience of using a credit card for nearly everything is not worth $24 a month or so i would have to pay. I can hit an ATM a few times a month and switch over my monthly recurring bills.

It already happens, just not very much since retailers understand that they will start losing customers. There are plenty of gas stations, though, where the price per gallon can be up to 10c higher if you are paying by credit card. Some mom & pop shops already have a surcharge if you are paying by credit card or at least would require a $10 minimum purchase if you are using a credit card.

[Isgrimnur]

Average Credit Card Processing Fees and Costs in 2022

For the first time in two years, Visa and Mastercard raised their credit card fees for merchants in April 2022.

Delayed by the pandemic, the move by the two largest payment networks to raise “swipe fees” was criticized by retailers. Businesses claim that hiking interchange fees, which are paid by merchants on each transaction made with a credit or debit card, could worsen inflation and pinch consumers because businesses could opt to pass the cost of higher interchange fees onto consumers.

Both payment networks raised fees on certain types of transactions and reduced fees for transactions in certain categories. Retailers say the reductions are narrow and do not balance out the increases in processing fees.

[Kraken]

If that happens in the US, I'll start going back to cash and actually take the time balance books with a debit card. I wouldn't blame retailers but the convenience of using a credit card for nearly everything is not worth $24 a month or so i would have to pay. I can hit an ATM a few times a month and switch over my monthly recurring bills.

It already happens, just not very much since retailers understand that they will start losing customers. There are plenty of gas stations, though, where the price per gallon can be up to 10c higher if you are paying by credit card. Some mom & pop shops already have a surcharge if you are paying by credit card or at least would require a $10 minimum purchase if you are using a credit card.

Works the opposite here. Card fees are baked into prices, but some businesses give a discount for cash (or only accept cash). Discounts are common at gas stations and many small restaurants are cash-only.

[Carpet_pissr]

Not related to the virus per se, but the food inflation we have seen is likely about to get much worse...Mississipi levels are apparently 10ft in the middle in some places, max, meaning barges that typically carry food from the Midwest are not able to use it currently. Drought conditions apparently drying up the river.

For reference, about half a billion in goods flows down the Mississippi every year.

[Alefroth]

Why do businesses think there are no costs associated with handling cash?

[Kraken]

As a former online retailer whose payments were 90% in credit/debit cards, the 2.35% that my processor took off the top came out of my pocket. 50% of my income went to inventory. Another 20% went to marketing (meaning Google). Various other unavoidable expenses (packaging, office supplies, tax prep, government fees) took 15% more. That left 15% for payroll -- meaning me -- minus the 2.35% bank fees. I only pocketed about 13 cents of every dollar.

If you're grossing millions of dollars you can absorb that because 13% of millions is still good money. The smaller your business, the more that haircut hurts. And the smaller your business, the higher your processing rate.

As for costs associated with cash, I have to go way back into my bookselling career to remember taking cash, and back then the financial world was very different. So I don't have anything relevant to say about that.

[Alefroth]

Counting/sorting, storing, and transporting are 3 that easily come to mind.

[LawBeefaroni]

CPI up 0.4% in Sept. Up 8.2% YoY. Expectations were 0.3%.

Wages down 0.1% vs inflation, down 3% YoY.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consume ... 2022-.html



But it's Prime Day! Create cash with credit!!

[stessier]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession? I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

[Kraken]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession? I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

Some sectors and some parts of the country are. Our local economy (driven by eds and meds -- education and biotech) is still booming, although the air is finally starting to come out of housing inflation. Houses here went up 30% in the past three years. Nobody expects prices to actually decline in the near term, but the rate of growth is stagnating.

The Fed believes (wrongly IMO) that wages are a major inflationary driver and wants unemployment to rise, so it inevitably will.

[Kurth]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession? I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

Yep. Seems like the question isn’t whether a recession is coming, but only how long and how severe.

[malchior]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession?

Almost certainly not *in* a recession. CPI and other measures of demand are still trending up. Is a slow down coming? It seems inevitable with the strong Fed action. But in it? There is almost no chance of that being openly declared by NBER or even tacit effects through mass layoffs with demand still strong throughout the economy. That's part of the problem! They can't seem to burn off excess demand even though everyone is kvetching about it.

I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

This is definitely possible if demand collapses. I've been hearing business leaders talking about demand collapse for ... 9 months now. With reads like this, it feels like the Fed is probably going to continue to stamp hard on the brakes which might cause widespread pain in line with this idea. All we can say throughout the previous 6-9 months is that folks keep expecting a slow down that has as yet failed to appear.

[gilraen]

All we can say throughout the previous 6-9 months is that folks keep expecting a slow down that has as yet failed to appear.

Prophecies eventually become self-fullfilling.

[stessier]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession?

Almost certainly not *in* a recession. CPI and other measures of demand are still trending up. Is a slow down coming? It seems inevitable with the strong Fed action. But in it? There is almost no chance of that being openly declared by NBER or even tacit effects through mass layoffs with demand still strong throughout the economy. That's part of the problem! They can't seem to burn off excess demand even though everyone is kvetching about it.

I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

This is definitely possible if demand collapses. I've been hearing business leaders talking about demand collapse for ... 9 months now. With reads like this, it feels like the Fed is probably going to continue to stamp hard on the brakes which might cause widespread pain in line with this idea. All we can say throughout the previous 6-9 months is that folks keep expecting a slow down that has as yet failed to appear.

I'm here to tell you, the slow down is occurring.

[LawBeefaroni]

It depends how you define "slow down". CPI is hot, even it is a month trailing. Demand is still hot. Supply has caught up.

[Isgrimnur]

All we can say throughout the previous 6-9 months is that folks keep expecting a slow down that has as yet failed to appear.

Prophecies eventually become self-fullfilling.

Because economics is as much of a science as phrenology.

[malchior]

Anyone else feel like we are in a pretty strong recession?

Almost certainly not *in* a recession. CPI and other measures of demand are still trending up. Is a slow down coming? It seems inevitable with the strong Fed action. But in it? There is almost no chance of that being openly declared by NBER or even tacit effects through mass layoffs with demand still strong throughout the economy. That's part of the problem! They can't seem to burn off excess demand even though everyone is kvetching about it.

I see unemployment spiking in the next year as all those new hires are let go.

This is definitely possible if demand collapses. I've been hearing business leaders talking about demand collapse for ... 9 months now. With reads like this, it feels like the Fed is probably going to continue to stamp hard on the brakes which might cause widespread pain in line with this idea. All we can say throughout the previous 6-9 months is that folks keep expecting a slow down that has as yet failed to appear.

I'm here to tell you, the slow down is occurring.

Based on what though? Again we've been hearing this persistent slow down is coming story for quite awhile now. FWIW most analysts in the spring expected hard braking from the Fed with a recession in late 2023. That still seems like a reasonably good prediction at the moment based on how the economy has performed. We're just seeing too much broad based demand to even think about calling it a recession at the moment.

Because economics is as much of a science as phrenology.

Eh, it's certainly not a hard science. Large scale predictions involving human populations are certainly not going to give you accurate predictions like how a physicist can predict the orbits of a moon. However, as a social science we've got pretty good models that allow us to understand/describe what is happening.

[Kraken]

Contractions eventually follow expansions and vice versa (usually). We've never tried turning off the economy and turning it back on again before, so this is hardly a normal business cycle...but last year's boom was hardly sustainable, so of course it's bound to deflate, and probably sooner than later as the Fed pumps its brake pedal hard. Economists don't agree whether we can engineer a soft landing or if a crash will follow the boom; the truth is probably in-between. And as I said earlier, some sectors of the economy in some regions of the country are no doubt contracting already. But "recession" isn't the right word while household spending remains robust and the job market is still tight.

What interests me is the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Low unemployment and rising wages are desirable to the working class, and not so much to the investing class.

[LawBeefaroni]

What interests me is the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Low unemployment and rising wages are desirable to the working class, and not so much to the investing class.

The investing class is fine since big box/big corp just raise prices. Small to Medio sized businesses get caught in the middle of rising costs and rising wages without the consummate bump in net margin. This just feeds big corp/box box and big web even more in a vicious cycle.

Wages are up, yes, but so is CPI and credit debt. Main street is getting the worst of it, make no mistake. So is the working class.

[LawBeefaroni]

How much of this is the Canadian economy and how much is the Chinese economy? Capital flight out of China has vanished.

[Isgrimnur]

Aww.

[gilraen]

Are developers actually trying to sell or are they sitting on the inventory waiting for prices to go back up? How much inventory is even available? The tweet is good for shock value but skips over a lot of assumptions.

[LawBeefaroni]

Are developers actually trying to sell or are they sitting on the inventory waiting for prices to go back up? How much inventory is even available? The tweet is good for shock value but skips over a lot of assumptions.

Waiting for prices to go back up?

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toro ... s-worried/

These declines appear to have experts on edge, with Dave Wilkes, BILD President & CEO raising alarm bells saying that "Monetary policy and rising interest rates have stalled the market."

But these conditions haven’t necessarily stalled price growth, as the benchmark price for new condominium apartments in September was $1,159,455, represeinting an 11.8 per cent spike. During the same period, the benchmark price of a new single-family home increased by a whopping 17.8 per cent.

...

Wilkes states that "inflation in construction and labour costs, elevating government fees, taxes and charges and tight supply make significant price correction for new homes very unlikely," and suggests that the "solution to this issue in significantly adding supply to the market and this requires a wholesale change to the way we regulate, tax and deliver new homes to the residents of the GTA."

Housing inventory remained low in September, though the available stock of new homes actually increased slightly to 11,900 units. This new inventory largely takes the form of condos, with 10,291 condominium apartment units and just 1,609 single-family lots on the market last month.

September new condo sales: 288
New home sales:45

It's probably because prices + rates are so high.

[Smoove_B]

Next up: Amoxicillin:

Supply shortages have been nothing new through the pandemic, and now, the Food and Drug Administration is warning the antibiotic amoxicillin is in short supply, specifically, doses commonly prescribed for children.

"There's absolutely a shortage happening right now, and we're seeing that shortage predominantly affecting the pediatric population," cardiovascular disease specialist Dr. Nidhi Kumar said.

The state isn't saying if there is officially a shortage, but according to the FDA's website, there is, and the reason is increased demand on four pharmaceutical companies which produce the antibiotic.

One of those companies, Hikma, told CBS2 in part, "We are continuing to deliver in full nationally and have adequate supplies to meet our agreed upon commitments with current customers." They added they are looking at ways to increase production to meet the increased demand.

More:

Another company, Sandoz, told CBS2 they are seeing a significant increase in department resulting in "a supply situation" for some antibiotics, including amoxicillin.

"The combination of rapid succession of the pandemic impact and consequent demand swings, manufacturing capacity constraints, scarcity of raw materials, and the current energy crisis means we currently face a uniquely difficult situation. We are working with key stakeholders including governments to find ways to manage this critical situation," Sandoz said in part.

But the economy? It's doing great!

[malchior]

Never change NY Times.

[Smoove_B]

Haven't posted in this thread in a while and I do think this should go here:

Norpel is one of millions of Americans with long Covid, also known as long-haul Covid, post-Covid or post-acute Covid syndrome. While definitions vary, long Covid is, at its core, a chronic illness with symptoms that persist for months or years after a Covid infection.

Up to 30% of Americans who get Covid-19 have developed long-haul symptoms, affecting as many as 23 million Americans, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

...

Studies suggest subsequent infections raise the chances of an "adverse" outcome, including hospitalization and death. The virus has killed more than 1 million Americans to date, and some 2,000 more die each week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Long Covid demonstrates that the virus is taking a lingering, pervasive and perhaps even more insidious toll. Medical experts have called it "the next public health disaster in the making."

But how does that relate to the economy?

This article is the first of a CNBC special report examining long Covid's destructive impact on individuals, families and the U.S. economy at large.

All told, long Covid is a $3.7 trillion drag on the U.S. economy — about 17% of our nation's pre-pandemic economic output, said David Cutler, an economist at Harvard University. The aggregate cost rivals that of the Great Recession, Cutler wrote in a July report.

Cutler revised the $3.7 trillion total upward by $1.1 trillion from an initial report in October 2020, due to the "greater prevalence of long Covid than we had guessed at the time." Even that revised estimate is conservative: It is based on the 80.5 million confirmed U.S. Covid cases at the time of the analysis, and doesn't account for future caseloads.

Higher medical spending accounts for $528 billion of the total. But lost earnings and reduced quality of life are other sinister trickle-down effects, which respectively cost Americans $997 billion and $2.2 trillion.

[malchior]

I see a thread line here from my comments in the China thread to the post above. It's all related. There is one inescapable 'elephant in the room' question right now - why are so many people out of work? The number of folks working is still less than before the pandemic. We saw a drastic cutdown of employment when the shutdowns happened early in 2002 and we saw a sharp rebound as things opened up. But even now nearly 3 years later we have less people working than in March 2020. We see that in the labor force participation data. We see this in job openings data. And the answers have been less than satisfying or anything approaching a durable explanation. We have been hearing semi-moralizing stories about 'people don't want to work', quiet quitting, and stimmy checks but they don't really hold up to scrutiny.

Where it falls apart is that we see a lot of factors that should be driving employment levels back up. Inflation in general should amount to more hours worked with cost of living including rents going up sharply. That hasn't been the case. We're seeing lots of job openings and calling back to the NY Times article we see 'stubborn' job "growth". We're supposedly in or heading into recession but we see recession like employment recovery levels vs. March 2020. We're ultimately just still building back to the absolute levels we had before the pandemic.

So again the question is why aren't people returning to work despite all the drivers? A strong contender is COVID. The most logical explanation is that folks at scale are facing barriers that prevent return to work or they probably would have. This is where population level analysis shines because all the moralizing stuff above are candidates but they all crumble more the longer the current situation continues.

[Daehawk]

Id think a lot of places closed permanently during the epidemic and others never fully recovered. Also people aren't as ready to go out and crowd with other folk. Myself I don't want to eat inside a place still.

On the other hand theres places like a long established restaurant in Chattanooga that has had to curtail his open times. Like a all day place to open only 10am - 2pm now because of lack of workers. he has openings..has offered more pay and incentives and yet no one wants to work. He has like 12 employees and cant stay open as much with only them as he is older now and can't work like he did himself.

[malchior]

Id think a lot of places closed permanently during the epidemic and others never fully recovered. Also people aren't as ready to go out and crowd with other folk. Myself I don't want to eat inside a place still.

On the other hand theres places like a long established restaurant in Chattanooga that has had to curtail his open times. Like a all day place to open only 10am - 2pm now because of lack of workers. he has openings..has offered more pay and incentives and yet no one wants to work. He has like 12 employees and cant stay open as much with only them as he is older now and can't work like he did himself.

The jobs opening data speaks against this at scale. Jobs openings have been persistently higher than normal for 2 years now. It fell since the beginning of the year and we've seen people return to work but still lots of job openings, higher wages, higher cost of living, and the output of the machine being persistently lower employment doesn't line up too well.

[stessier]

Id think a lot of places closed permanently during the epidemic and others never fully recovered. Also people aren't as ready to go out and crowd with other folk. Myself I don't want to eat inside a place still.

On the other hand theres places like a long established restaurant in Chattanooga that has had to curtail his open times. Like a all day place to open only 10am - 2pm now because of lack of workers. he has openings..has offered more pay and incentives and yet no one wants to work. He has like 12 employees and cant stay open as much with only them as he is older now and can't work like he did himself.

All of the Arby's in my area have this same issue - they frequently have to close the dining rooms because they can't get enough people to work a shift. It's weird that most of the other fast food places don't have the issue.

[Smoove_B]

The jobs opening data speaks against this at scale. Jobs openings have been persistently higher than normal for 2 years now. It fell since the beginning of the year and we've seen people return to work but still lots of job openings, higher wages, higher cost of living, and the output of the machine being persistently lower employment don't line up too well.

I can only speak in anecdotes, but my feeling is that people realized they were tired of their bullshit jobs during the pandemic - especially jobs in the retail or general service industry. I can also say I am currently living with someone (just keeping it general for internet peepers) that is completely dissatisfied with their corporate job. On paper it's a treasure (salary, location, work from home, etc...) but in practice is now turned into a soul-crushing grind. They're at the point of being ready to just quit and transition into something more meaningful and personally fulfilling. The rub is salary and benefits. I've been working in public service of some kind for 25+ years now and I'm done. I'm not at the point where I'm phoning it in, but any thoughts I had of returning to a life of full time work (actual, not the current FTE I'm experiencing without any benfits) in the public sector has vaporized.

Anyway, I suspect there's a lot of people like us - we're just "done" with participating in the wheel but we're not entirely sure how to completely get out but I can assure you there's no way I'm working a day later than my eligibility for retirement options. There isn't a dollar amount you could pay me to take a forward-facing job in retail or service at this point and I'm guessing many others have reached that point as well.

[malchior]

All of the Arby's in my area have this same issue - they frequently have to close the dining rooms because they can't get enough people to work a shift. It's weird that most of the other fast food places don't have the issue.

One of my current clients is a competing fast food restaurant and I've been looking at the security on their mobile app. In that process I learned about all the internals and one thing I learned is that the 'secret sauce' isn't food - it's efficiency. I bet Arby's is very inefficient with their resources.

[Kurth]

Id think a lot of places closed permanently during the epidemic and others never fully recovered. Also people aren't as ready to go out and crowd with other folk. Myself I don't want to eat inside a place still.

On the other hand theres places like a long established restaurant in Chattanooga that has had to curtail his open times. Like a all day place to open only 10am - 2pm now because of lack of workers. he has openings..has offered more pay and incentives and yet no one wants to work. He has like 12 employees and cant stay open as much with only them as he is older now and can't work like he did himself.

The jobs opening data speaks against this at scale. Jobs openings have been persistently higher than normal for 2 years now. It fell since the beginning of the year and we've seen people return to work but still lots of job openings, higher wages, higher cost of living, and the output of the machine being persistently lower employment doesn't line up too well.

Echoing your post above, malchior, I don't get it. How are so many people staying on the sidelines and out of the workforce? This was a big topic of discussion over Thanksgiving in my house. Even my father-in-law, who is never at a lack for answers (he's the self-dubbed, "World Authority" after all), doesn't have a good explanation.

When did the last stimulus money go out? Seems like that was a long time ago, and it wasn't like those checks were enough to live on. That relatively small well of money has to be dried up by now. For all these people who aren't working, what are they living on?

At the same time, I can't drive a mile without seeing "help wanted" signs, and it feels like everywhere I go, there's a shortage of workers.

Granted, this seems most prevalent in entry-level and low paying jobs (retail, restaurants, etc.), but still . . . Have people just decided that those low-paying jobs aren't worth taking?

[malchior]

The jobs opening data speaks against this at scale. Jobs openings have been persistently higher than normal for 2 years now. It fell since the beginning of the year and we've seen people return to work but still lots of job openings, higher wages, higher cost of living, and the output of the machine being persistently lower employment don't line up too well.

I can only speak in anecdotes, but my feeling is that people realized they were tired of their bullshit jobs during the pandemic - especially jobs in the retail or general service industry. I can also say I am currently living with someone (just keeping it general for internet peepers) that is completely dissatisfied with their corporate job. On paper it's a treasure (salary, location, work from home, etc...) but in practice is now turned into a soul-crushing grind. They're at the point of being ready to just quit and transition into something more meaningful and personally fulfilling. The rub is salary and benefits. I've been working in public service of some kind for 25+ years now and I'm done. I'm not at the point where I'm phoning it in, but any thoughts I had of returning to a life of full time work (actual, not the current FTE I'm experiencing without any benfits) in the public sector has vaporized.

Anyway, I suspect there's a lot of people like us - we're just "done" with participating in the wheel but we're not entirely sure how to completely get out but I can assure you there's no way I'm working a day later than my eligibility for retirement options. There isn't a dollar amount you could pay me to take a forward-facing job in retail or service at this point and I'm guessing many others have reached that point as well.

This is essentially the people don't want to work argument. It doesn't really fit the model in a country with relatively poor social safety nets and rapidly escalating cost of living. Maybe it's true everyone is so sick of working that they are choosing to scrape by but that doesn't make much sense at the scale we are seeing. We're seeing economic indicators that don't match up well with any direct theories that make much sense - that's why there is a lot of debate.

[Kurth]

The jobs opening data speaks against this at scale. Jobs openings have been persistently higher than normal for 2 years now. It fell since the beginning of the year and we've seen people return to work but still lots of job openings, higher wages, higher cost of living, and the output of the machine being persistently lower employment don't line up too well.

I can only speak in anecdotes, but my feeling is that people realized they were tired of their bullshit jobs during the pandemic - especially jobs in the retail or general service industry. I can also say I am currently living with someone (just keeping it general for internet peepers) that is completely dissatisfied with their corporate job. On paper it's a treasure (salary, location, work from home, etc...) but in practice is now turned into a soul-crushing grind. They're at the point of being ready to just quit and transition into something more meaningful and personally fulfilling. The rub is salary and benefits. I've been working in public service of some kind for 25+ years now and I'm done. I'm not at the point where I'm phoning it in, but any thoughts I had of returning to a life of full time work (actual, not the current FTE I'm experiencing without any benfits) in the public sector has vaporized.

Anyway, I suspect there's a lot of people like us - we're just "done" with participating in the wheel but we're not entirely sure how to completely get out but I can assure you there's no way I'm working a day later than my eligibility for retirement options. There isn't a dollar amount you could pay me to take a forward-facing job in retail or service at this point and I'm guessing many others have reached that point as well.

This is essentially the people don't want to work argument. It doesn't really fit the model in a country with relatively poor social safety nets and rapidly escalating cost of living. Maybe it's true everyone is so sick of working that they are choosing to scrape by but that doesn't make much sense at the scale we are seeing.

Exactly. It's fine for people to say, "Fuck it. I'm not doing the grind anymore." But it's not that simple. They need an alternative, right? Unless they were are independently wealthy and were previously working for the love of it, they can't just tap out. They need another source of income to pay the bills and make ends meet. At scale, where is that coming from?

[malchior]

Granted, this seems most prevalent in entry-level and low paying jobs (retail, restaurants, etc.), but still . . . Have people just decided that those low-paying jobs aren't worth taking?

One other thing to consider is that they aren't all low paying jobs anymore. They are 'lower paying' but the pay has significantly increased this year. Also, those jobs are aimed at folks with the least resources to cushion economic blows. Unemployment extensions aged out long ago now. Most states have welfare to work requirements. Stimmy checks are dried up and inflated away. Even if you have a certain amount of people falling through gaps in the unemployment enforcement schemes that mean people have to apply for work still the gap remains. Even if they are choosing not to work - how are they making ends meet?