NCAA Football 2023

[Scuzz]

What a dreadful Rose Bowl.

Huh, I thought it was a pretty good game. Very entertaining throughout.

I would agree with this. Well balanced game.

[Pyperkub]

What a dreadful Rose Bowl.

Huh, I thought it was a pretty good game. Very entertaining throughout.

Bad snaps, dropped passes, dropped punts, poor execution on trick plays. Neither team looked ready to play at all (see Mccarthy's first pass which should have been a pick). And Michigan playing a finess game when they were dominating the los in thy first half was mind boggling. Yes, bama's weakness this year was the secondary, but do what you do well, especially when they weren't stopping it

And on the Bama offense, Michigan's blitz was killing them, but they only went to a qb run game to change that. No screens or rolling the pocket, etc.

The defenses played (mostly) well, but neither team deserved to win IMHO.

Edit: Alternatively, I'm being grouchy.

[Pyperkub]

Texas-Washington is pretty much where I thought it would be at half, tho UW has looked a bit better.

Will see if the UW defense can step up in the second half yet again.... the rush defense has not been good, but Penix looks like Penix again.

[Jaymann]

Wow what a finish, I didn't think Texas had a prayer but they literally took it down to the last second.

[Skinypupy]

That was nuts. This close to possibly the most epic choke job in college football history.

Really gonna suck if Johnson is out for the finals.

[Pyperkub]

That was nuts. This close to possibly the most epic choke job in college football history.

Really gonna suck if Johnson is out for the finals.

Yup. They played WAY too conservative in the 4th. Playing for FG, and then not running anytime off the clock. I hope Johnson is OK to play.

[Skinypupy]

[LawBeefaroni]

Alabama's poor snaps were worse than Michigan's poor snaps and missed kicks and muffed punts. I guess.

[Apollo]

So the committee went out on a limb this time and chose the most controversial final four yet by going all-out on picking the best teams over the most deserving teams. And tada! We got four great teams and two great games. I think there's a connection here...

[ImLawBoy]

That game probably took 5 years off of my life. It was beyond frustrating that we were only up by 3 at half given how badly we outplayed Alabama to that point. To an extent Alabama's big miscues on the snaps were baked in - they've had issues all year in that department, so it wasn't surprising to see that continue. Michigan's mistakes on special teams were frustrating, though, considering how that's been a solid part of the team all season (and for years, really). SP+ had Michigan's special teams ranked #4 going in, fercryinoutloud. Unsurprisingly, a Saban coached team made great adjustments at the half and started dominating. I was falling into a sense of doom in the fourth quarter, but that last Michigan drive was epic. And for Blake Corum to revert to 2022 Blake Corum in the OT was awesome. I know there was a lot of online chirping about Alabama's play call, and perhaps the details were bad, but the general concept was strong. Milroe running had been their best play all day, and I think strength vs. strength made for a great ending - especially since the good guys won.

I watched the second half of the Washington-Texas game (I actually had to do fatherly duties for a while after abandoning the family for the Michigan game). If Penix is on against Michigan like he was for most of the night against Texas, it could be high scoring. I don't see Washington's defense shutting down Michigan's offense, but we'll see how it goes.

So the committee went out on a limb this time and chose the most controversial final four yet by going all-out on picking the best teams over the most deserving teams. And tada! We got four great teams and two great games. I think there's a connection here...

OK, Machiavelli . Ends justify the means. Honestly, it wouldn't be so bad if the committee were just honest about it. Sure, say you're ranking by the "best" teams, but then honestly put FSU where they belong in the "best" rankings - not at #5. The committee has always said they only go by best, but throughout history they've always factored in a "deserving" element. Just be consistent!

Interestingly, the championship matchup we're getting is the same as it would have been under the BCS system or under the old bowl system (i.e., Big 10 champ vs. PAC champ). We could have saved a lot of potential heart attacks by just going with the old system.

[Isgrimnur]

Damn northern border biases.

[LawBeefaroni]

If Penix is on against Michigan like he was for most of the night against Texas, it could be high scoring. I don't see Washington's defense shutting down Michigan's offense, but we'll see how it goes.

It will be like TCU but with Corum available, which bodes well.

[Scuzz]

The committee has always said the condition of a team (injuries) were to be taken into account, they had just never done it before.

Washington would have won without all the drama had Johnson not got hurt or if Washington had just taken a knee three times. Sure Texas would have got the ball back but it would have been with about 15 seconds and no time outs.

[Scuzz]

I do think Michigan should beat Washington, but Washington’s line play is much better than they get credit for. If Johnson is out that will hurt them.

[Pyperkub]

I do think Michigan should beat Washington, but Washington’s line play is much better than they get credit for. If Johnson is out that will hurt them.

The other thing is that UW's defense seems to do much better in 2nd halves. They get stops they don't get in the first half. Even last night they held Texas to 10 in the second half. And UW's OL is a lot better than Bama's. At least when it comes to protecting Penix. I doubt Michigan gets 2 sacks, let alone 5+

[Apollo]

Read this today in the NYT:

https://theathletic.com/5174032/2024/01 ... g-ten-sec/

While I completely agree with the idea that Michigan (and in the past, Ohio State) now has the talent to compete with the SEC's best, I think most SEC fans considered Michigan and Ohio State as legit powerhouses before this game. To say. on the other hand, that the Big 10 has reached parity in talent with the SEC as a whole though is still a stretch IMHO, especially when the Big 10 took a beatdown from the SEC this bowl season.

Still, NIL could have the effect of spreading elite talent more evenly among the top 40 or so programs in the country and changing the face of top level college football forever. Just the fact that an SEC team is not playing in the National Championship game is pretty unusual these days.

[ImLawBoy]

I don't know about overall parity. The SEC didn't seem as strong as usual this year, but the Big Ten was a tire fire outside of the Big 3. Still, you can't take any non-playoff bowl results as indicative of anything these days.

[ImLawBoy]

Let's take a step back from the playoffs for a moment to recognize how truly absurd Iowa was this year. They were shut out 3 times this year, yet they also won 10 games.

Spoiler:

Matt Brown
@MattBrownCFB
Power 5 teams shut out 3+ times in one season since 2000:

2023 Iowa (10-4)
2019 Rutgers (2-10)
2016 Rutgers (2-10)
2008 Wazzu (2-11)
2006 Duke (0-12)
2002 Baylor (3-9)
2001 Rutgers (2-9)
2000 Baylor (2-9)

(Iowa hadn't been shut out since 2000)
3:14 PM · Jan 1, 2024
·
692K
Views

[Pyperkub]

And they should have won 11, given that (IMHO) poor punt return call of a fair catch.

They also did it without any Hawkeye going over 100 yds receiving in a game all season!

[Apollo]

And they should have won 11, given that (IMHO) poor punt return call of a fair catch.

They also did it without any Hawkeye going over 100 yds receiving in a game all season!

This is where I mention that Iowa would never have won 10 games this year in a REAL conference.

[ImLawBoy]

This is where I wonder why no real conferences are in the national title game.

[Pyperkub]

Side note, Sark looked like a marshmallow on the sidelines for Texas yesterday - what a hideous outfit on him.

[Scuzz]

Let's take a step back from the playoffs for a moment to recognize how truly absurd Iowa was this year. They were shut out 3 times this year, yet they also won 10 games.

Spoiler:

Matt Brown
@MattBrownCFB
Power 5 teams shut out 3+ times in one season since 2000:

2023 Iowa (10-4)
2019 Rutgers (2-10)
2016 Rutgers (2-10)
2008 Wazzu (2-11)
2006 Duke (0-12)
2002 Baylor (3-9)
2001 Rutgers (2-9)
2000 Baylor (2-9)

(Iowa hadn't been shut out since 2000)
3:14 PM · Jan 1, 2024
·
692K
Views

I thought more telling was the stat comparing the Iowa offense to other teams that were as pathetic. Somehow they were the only winning team while being 4th worst in scoring.

[Pyperkub]

Heh. the story that won't die!

Former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions, who was at the center of a sign-stealing scandal that hung over the program during the 2023 regular season, was apparently in attendance for the Wolverines' 27-20 Rose Bowl win in overtime over No. 4 Alabama on Monday.

Is this a...

...sign?

[Apollo]

This is where I wonder why no real conferences are in the national title game.

It's ESPN's Anti-SEC bias obviously.

[Skinypupy]

Let's take a step back from the playoffs for a moment to recognize how truly absurd Iowa was this year. They were shut out 3 times this year, yet they also won 10 games.

Spoiler:

Matt Brown
@MattBrownCFB
Power 5 teams shut out 3+ times in one season since 2000:

2023 Iowa (10-4)
2019 Rutgers (2-10)
2016 Rutgers (2-10)
2008 Wazzu (2-11)
2006 Duke (0-12)
2002 Baylor (3-9)
2001 Rutgers (2-9)
2000 Baylor (2-9)

(Iowa hadn't been shut out since 2000)
3:14 PM · Jan 1, 2024
·
692K
Views

A follow-up to this is that all three shutouts were against the only three ranked teams they played, and Iowa was outscored 92-0 in those three games.

[Jaymann]

Heh. the story that won't die!

Former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions, who was at the center of a sign-stealing scandal that hung over the program during the 2023 regular season, was apparently in attendance for the Wolverines' 27-20 Rose Bowl win in overtime over No. 4 Alabama on Monday.

Is this a...

...sign?

Yeah, a going out of business sign.

[Skinypupy]

Mrs. Skinypupy reminded me this morning that we will be at her annual company dinner tonight and I'll have to miss the title game.

I expect it will be a good game that will ultimately come down to how well Michael Penix plays. I expect Michigan to control the TOP against a weak Husky defense and keep Penix on the sidelines as much as possible. He will need to make every play count. When he's on (as he's often been this season), he's nearly impossible to stop.

Washington has looked beatable in nearly every game this year, but they always somehow find a way to come out on top. Would love for that trend to continue for one more game.

[JCC]

Looking forward to tonight's game, which I expect Michigan to win. I hope Penix can keep Washington in it, and would enjoy an upset, though I would rather get a fun/close game more than anything else.

I assume Harbaugh will bolt to the NFL (in the likely event he is offered a HC job) win or lose to avoid any additional punishment(s) he would undoubtedly receive next year from the NCAA.

[Scuzz]

I expect Michigan to win but will be rooting for the Huskies. The Washington defense has bent but not broken all year, but I do think the lines are very good.

As for Harbaugh, he isn’t going anywhere. I can see him enjoying being on top and rubbing everyone’s nose in it.

[ImLawBoy]

I would like to see Michigan win, and I would like it to not be particularly close. I don't think I'll get the second part of that wish, though, so I'll take a close Michigan victory.

This will be the best offense - particularly passing offense - that Michigan has faced all year. This will also be the best defense that Washington has faced all year. Washington's O-line won the Joe Moore award this year largely on pass protection, but I'm hoping that Michigan can at least get some pressure on Penix and maybe force a turnover worthy pass or two.

On the other side, I think it's safe to say that Michigan will try to run the ball down Washington's throat again and again. It's not likely to be as comical as 32 straight runs against Penn State, but I don't think we'll see a very balanced attack. Since Washington's run defense is its weak spot, I expect Michigan to take advantage. I'd like to see them run JJ more, but that's been pretty sparing over his career despite his excellent legs.

Prediction time! I think the team that scores more points will win. #analysis

[Skinypupy]

This will be the best offense - particularly passing offense - that Michigan has faced all year. This will also be the best defense that Washington has faced all year. Washington's O-line won the Joe Moore award this year largely on pass protection, but I'm hoping that Michigan can at least get some pressure on Penix and maybe force a turnover worthy pass or two.

If you can get Penix outside the pocket, his completion percentage drops dramatically. Couldn't find the exact stats with a quick search, but last I saw it goes from something 68% in the pocket to 35% when he has to move.

If Michigan get sustain a pass rush and get Penix off his spot (which I suspect they can), Washington could be in big trouble.

[Pyperkub]

This will be the best offense - particularly passing offense - that Michigan has faced all year. This will also be the best defense that Washington has faced all year. Washington's O-line won the Joe Moore award this year largely on pass protection, but I'm hoping that Michigan can at least get some pressure on Penix and maybe force a turnover worthy pass or two.

If you can get Penix outside the pocket, his completion percentage drops dramatically. Couldn't find the exact stats with a quick search, but last I saw it goes from something 68% in the pocket to 35% when he has to move.

If Michigan get sustain a pass rush and get Penix off his spot (which I suspect they can), Washington could be in big trouble.

That percentage of time when he's forced to move is extremely low tho.

In other news, I agree with Lawboy's analysis - it's all about who scores more points:)

[Scuzz]

I assume Washington’s main RB is out? Johnson?

[Scuzz]

I assume Washington’s main RB is out? Johnson?

[ImLawBoy]

Last I heard he was playing and they claim he's 100%. Not sure how accurate that is given he was carted off one week ago, but that's what they're going with unless something changed in the last day or so.

[Hyena]

Considering our experience against Michigan last year, it will be interesting to see how they compete against Washington. I think Penix is one of the best arms I've seen in college football in a while. His long ball against Texas was devastatingly accurate, and I think if the line can give him time (a BIG if) I think he can pick their secondary apart. Their run game could potentially take a drastic hit from the RB not being 100%, but we'll see.

I'm just in it to watch a great game, but I'd like to see Washington win because...they're purple? That's about the level of importance I see this game at to me.

[LawBeefaroni]

Keys for Michigan:
Keep Penix under pressure.
Ride Corum early and often.
Save the trickery for big leads or big deficits.

[Jaymann]

The Huskies are severely hurting at running back. I expect to see a lot of run and gun.

[Pyperkub]

The Huskies are severely hurting at running back. I expect to see a lot of run and gun.

I think with Penix healthy again, we'll see some zone read again like we did against Texas, maybe with RPO to boot.

But mostly, we'll see if Penix + OL + WRs can beat Michigan's defense.

If not, it will be a long night.