The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

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Pyperkub
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Pyperkub »

Smoove_B wrote:Again, wtf is the White House negotiating anything? The GOP terrorists keep doing this kind of crap because it works


Summary of deal as I understand it:
— Debt ceiling raised 2 years
— Domestic programs frozen next year, up 1% ‘25. Inflation-adjusted cut
— Boosts defense, VA $
— Some tightening of work requirements on TANF, SNAP
— Energy permitting (details tbd)
— Claw back some new IRS $
Maybe, just maybe, it's a long play.

This gives Mccarthy what looks like a small win, but one he can trumpet and probably keep his Speakership, without getting removed for one of the bomb throwers.

And if he is removed, the biggest threat from the bomb throwers is removed, at least through after the 2024 election.

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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:22 am I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).
Same difference to me and I think it's just plain wrong. The Republicans win because they again get away with taking a hostage and largely extract most of their patron's policy preferences anyway -- and frankly many "centrist" Democratic are happy to go along as well since it keeps campaign coffers flush.
We'll most likely play a different version of the same game two years hence (depending on the makeup of the next government -- I foresee a narrow Dem majority in the House, a R Senate, and the presidency is a tossup at this point).
Exactly it's the same game. The one where either the Republicans win an election and institute oligarch policy preferences or one they draw even or lose and force a crisis to institute oligarch policy preferences. That many people think this is "democracy is messy" shit is beyond frustrating.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Octavious »

Would be "funny" if they don't get enough votes. I'm guessing it shouldn't be too hard to get through the house, but you never know. ;)
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Blackhawk »

Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:22 am I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).
In a normal negotiation this is true. This isn't a normal negotiation. One side is likely asking for a bit too much from a mostly reasonable foundation, while the other side is asking for absurdities from a foundation of hate, lust for power, and greed.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by YellowKing »

The fact that MAGAs are melting down over this deal tells me all I need to know to be on board.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Octavious »

From the details I've seen it seems like he didn't give up a ton. He shouldn't have had to give up anything, but what you gona do?
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Unagi »

YellowKing wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 7:15 pm The fact that MAGAs are melting down over this deal tells me all I need to know to be on board.
Only what we already knew, that ANYTHING short of totally destroying the country that Biden is leading - is a failure in their eyes.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Unagi »

Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:22 am I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).

We'll most likely play a different version of the same game two years hence (depending on the makeup of the next government -- I foresee a narrow Dem majority in the House, a R Senate, and the presidency is a tossup at this point).
I get it, but I can't help but feel like:

A gang of psychopaths held up a bank and took 20 people hostage. They demanded to be allowed to leave with all the money and no police chase, etc... or they would kill everyone. To prove it they shoot 5 of the people dead on the spot.

So immediately the police move aside, let the gang all go, and point out that a lot of the psychotic gang members actually wanted to shoot all the hostages - and we are lucky to get the 15 we have back alive... and the money is just going to have to be the price of that victory.

... Oh, and an alarm at the other bank down the street just sounded.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Everything I’m seeing is that this is still tentative, so not yet a done deal, correct?
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Unagi
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Unagi »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 10:52 pm Everything I’m seeing is that this is still tentative, so not yet a done deal, correct?
Yeah, not remotely.
The real news will be when the house has a vote, and what it’s actually a vote on. Until then, brinkmanship.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Blackhawk »

And given that they said 72 hours to read the deal, then a few days to vote on it, they really only have one chance. If it doesn't pass there won't be time left for renegotiation.

And the far ends of both sides will be pissed about the compromise.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 9:14 pm
Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:22 am I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).

We'll most likely play a different version of the same game two years hence (depending on the makeup of the next government -- I foresee a narrow Dem majority in the House, a R Senate, and the presidency is a tossup at this point).
I get it, but I can't help but feel like:

A gang of psychopaths held up a bank and took 20 people hostage. They demanded to be allowed to leave with all the money and no police chase, etc... or they would kill everyone. To prove it they shoot 5 of the people dead on the spot.

So immediately the police move aside, let the gang all go, and point out that a lot of the psychotic gang members actually wanted to shoot all the hostages - and we are lucky to get the 15 we have back alive... and the money is just going to have to be the price of that victory.

... Oh, and an alarm at the other bank down the street just sounded.
Let me try one more time.

(Not knowing the details yet) Given the circumstances, this is probably as fair (balanced) a deal as we could get.

I wish there weren't Republicans. I wish having a tiny majority in one branch didn't give extremists the power to blow up the economy. I wish so many of them weren't anti-American in the first place. I wish the Democrats had deep-sixed the debt ceiling when they had all three branches (thanks, Sinemanchin) and I hope they'll do it if they're ever in control again. I hope they'll reform SCOTUS. I wish they'd done/hope they'll do lots of things. If wishes were fishes they'd ride bicycles, or something like that.

Howthefuckever, this is America in 2023. Republicans want to reverse everything Dems accomplished over the past two years. They're holding a loaded gun and they're willing to use it. Yet it looks to me like they barely knicked their target and it will take them two years to reload.

There's nothing "fair' about Dems giving in to extortion, but what choice did they have beyond some constitutionally sketchy gambits that would've let the hostile SCOTUS say "LOL hold my beer"?
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Unagi »

Yeah, I hear you.
We are in agreement... I'd say you are looking at things optimistically, and myself pessimistically.... but I'm sure you don't feel optimistic either.

Reminds me of a saying...

"What's the difference between an optimist and a pessimist?
An optimist thinks this is the best of all worlds. A pessimist knows it."
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by waitingtoconnect »

Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:49 pm
Unagi wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 9:14 pm
Kraken wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:22 am I meant "fair" in the sense of balanced. If neither side likes the deal, neither side "won" (or both sides lost, if you prefer).

We'll most likely play a different version of the same game two years hence (depending on the makeup of the next government -- I foresee a narrow Dem majority in the House, a R Senate, and the presidency is a tossup at this point).
I get it, but I can't help but feel like:

A gang of psychopaths held up a bank and took 20 people hostage. They demanded to be allowed to leave with all the money and no police chase, etc... or they would kill everyone. To prove it they shoot 5 of the people dead on the spot.

So immediately the police move aside, let the gang all go, and point out that a lot of the psychotic gang members actually wanted to shoot all the hostages - and we are lucky to get the 15 we have back alive... and the money is just going to have to be the price of that victory.

... Oh, and an alarm at the other bank down the street just sounded.
Let me try one more time.

(Not knowing the details yet) Given the circumstances, this is probably as fair (balanced) a deal as we could get.

I wish there weren't Republicans. I wish having a tiny majority in one branch didn't give extremists the power to blow up the economy. I wish so many of them weren't anti-American in the first place. I wish the Democrats had deep-sixed the debt ceiling when they had all three branches (thanks, Sinemanchin) and I hope they'll do it if they're ever in control again. I hope they'll reform SCOTUS. I wish they'd done/hope they'll do lots of things. If wishes were fishes they'd ride bicycles, or something like that.

Howthefuckever, this is America in 2023. Republicans want to reverse everything Dems accomplished over the past two years. They're holding a loaded gun and they're willing to use it. Yet it looks to me like they barely knicked their target and it will take them two years to reload.

There's nothing "fair' about Dems giving in to extortion, but what choice did they have beyond some constitutionally sketchy gambits that would've let the hostile SCOTUS say "LOL hold my beer"?
In many countries we are seeing referendums on the past. Brexit was one of these. For some reason these “republicans” who have captured the party want to build a 19th century dystopia. And I expect some if given the chance would bring back slavery.

I think many nations afflicted by this malaise went into Iraq on 2003 despite knowing it was all a lie. This opened the way to Brexit and trump.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Carpet_pissr »

And there it is: “Debt ceiling deal includes surprise approval of natural gas pipeline championed by Manchin”

This motherfucker is always seemingly in the background (if not the foreground), mucking up the works. I wonder how much of the gridlock to date was caused by him needing to get this in the bill.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by malchior »

I have no doubts that his name being dangled along with No Labels was in the service of getting this pipeline for oligarchic interests. In the bill they talk about how a natural gas pipeline is of "vital national interest" and will somehow *reduce* carbon emissions.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Unagi »

malchior wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 9:05 am and will somehow *reduce* carbon emissions.
It's like the proverbial wife that talks about how much money she saved the household by buying all that totally useless crap on sale.

Think of all the trucks/trains that the pipeline will replace. And then stop thinking!
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by malchior »

Kaine has been vehemently opposed to this approach since the idea was first floated last year. Manchin has tried to ram this through over and over. It sure seems like Manchin also took some hostages (secretly). But that is apparently how substantive US policy is going to be forged now - via high stakes brinkmanship.

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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Octavious »

Well Graham is determined to tank it. So we.have that going for us.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Smoove_B »

Wasn't he just in Kyiv to receive instructions from Putin speak with Zelensky? Pushing the U.S. into default would certainly help someone...
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Apparently he’s been marked for assassination.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Smoove_B »

What a perfect cover - issue an arrest order (nudge, nudge) for someone that you're using as a chaos proxy.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

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Blackhawk wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:11 pm And given that they said 72 hours to read the deal, then a few days to vote on it, they really only have one chance. If it doesn't pass there won't be time left for renegotiation.

And the far ends of both sides will be pissed about the compromise.
I don't think that I'm at the far end of anything and I'm still pissed that once again we are cutting aid to the neediest while protecting tax cuts for the rich and the defense industrial complex because if we don't the Republicans will destroy the world economy. I seriously hate living in this country right now.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Blackhawk »

gbasden wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 4:27 am
Blackhawk wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:11 pm And given that they said 72 hours to read the deal, then a few days to vote on it, they really only have one chance. If it doesn't pass there won't be time left for renegotiation.

And the far ends of both sides will be pissed about the compromise.
I don't think that I'm at the far end of anything and I'm still pissed that once again we are cutting aid to the neediest while protecting tax cuts for the rich and the defense industrial complex because if we don't the Republicans will destroy the world economy. I seriously hate living in this country right now.
I was referring (unclearly, my fault) to the far ends of both sides that would try to sink it and allow a default because it isn't 100% ideal for them. So, yeah, I'm pretty unhappy about it as well, but that anger is directed more toward the system that put us in a situation where this was the best that we could hope for (and I'm not excluding either side, or the leadership, from blame.)
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Apollo »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 5:48 pm Wasn't he just in Kyiv to receive instructions from Putin speak with Zelensky? Pushing the U.S. into default would certainly help someone...
To be fair, Lindsey has been one of the most outspoken Anti-Kremlin members of the GOP. And when he said he couldn't vote for the bill, he did say he supported a 90 day extension of the debt limit to continue negotiations. But, Jesus, getting bent out of shape because the Defense budget is only increased by 3%?

I still hate the way he couldn't wait to beat a path to Trump's door as soon as McCain was in the ground... :evil:
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Kurth »

+1 for the pragmatic response of Kraken and YK.

Assuming this gets passed, this is the best outcome we could have hoped for. It also helps push back a bit on the narrative that the Biden administration is a clown show with no strategy.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 2:18 pm +1 for the pragmatic response of Kraken and YK.

Assuming this gets passed, this is the best outcome we could have hoped for. It also helps push back a bit on the narrative that the Biden administration is a clown show with no strategy.
Is it not as bad as it could have been assuming this doesn't derail? Sure. Did the Republicans easily win on messaging including convincing the public at large that this was just part of the process? You betcha. Did Biden essentially kick the crisis can down the road? Sure did.

I'm personally tired of failure being spun as victory in service of the same sense of "pragmatism" that has allowed increasing brinkmanship and crisis in the long-term. We need to stop lying to ourselves.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by YellowKing »

I don't see it as lying to ourselves, I see it as taking solace in small victories in a climate that doesn't allow for many. I think we're well aware the system is broken, but for better or for worse we're currently stuck playing by these rules. And within this terrible set of rules, we seemingly avoided the worst case scenario.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Octavious »

Well I won't get too excited until it's finally signed. Still lots of room for someone to nuke it from orbit. To me Biden's only goal should be to not let Trump back into office. I don't expect he will get anything meaningful done in the meantime. Of course Trump could try and run again in 2028, but that starts to get borderline ridiculous. Which means he will.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by LordMortis »

Octavious wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 3:07 pm Well I won't get too excited until it's finally signed. Still lots of room for someone to nuke it from orbit. To me Biden's only goal should be to not let Trump back into office. I don't expect he will get anything meaningful done in the meantime. Of course Trump could try and run again in 2028, but that starts to get borderline ridiculous. Which means he will.
...My only goal for Biden is to not let Trump back in office... Though I guess, technically it's a little more broad and to not let this iteration of Republicanism back in the office.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Kurth »

LordMortis wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 4:00 pm
Octavious wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 3:07 pm Well I won't get too excited until it's finally signed. Still lots of room for someone to nuke it from orbit. To me Biden's only goal should be to not let Trump back into office. I don't expect he will get anything meaningful done in the meantime. Of course Trump could try and run again in 2028, but that starts to get borderline ridiculous. Which means he will.
...My only goal for Biden is to not let Trump back in office...
This. 1000X this.

If Biden can just not lose to Trump, that’s all I ask, and, honestly, he will have delivered on the only reason a lot of people voted for him in the first place.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Apollo »

YellowKing wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 2:57 pm I don't see it as lying to ourselves, I see it as taking solace in small victories in a climate that doesn't allow for many. I think we're well aware the system is broken, but for better or for worse we're currently stuck playing by these rules. And within this terrible set of rules, we seemingly avoided the worst case scenario.
Well said, and I agree completely.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by geezer »

malchior wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 2:44 pm
Kurth wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 2:18 pm +1 for the pragmatic response of Kraken and YK.

Assuming this gets passed, this is the best outcome we could have hoped for. It also helps push back a bit on the narrative that the Biden administration is a clown show with no strategy.
Is it not as bad as it could have been assuming this doesn't derail? Sure. Did the Republicans easily win on messaging including convincing the public at large that this was just part of the process? You betcha. Did Biden essentially kick the crisis can down the road? Sure did.

I'm personally tired of failure being spun as victory in service of the same sense of "pragmatism" that has allowed increasing brinkmanship and crisis in the long-term. We need to stop lying to ourselves.
The only option other than "compromise" is "don't compromise," and I absolutely believe that would lead to a default. Well, there's a third option, but it's simply not in in Biden's core character to look at possiblymaybelegalmaybenotbutfuckitdoitanyway solutions that Trump made a regular practice of.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Biden’s legacy will be “I wasn’t Trump!”
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Pyperkub »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:53 pm Biden’s legacy will be “I wasn’t Trump!”
Biden prevented WW3 by building up our relationships with NATO and Zelensky after Trump torched them, and then hit exactly the right notes in preventing Ukraine from falling in the first week, supporting Ukraine so forcefully (yet in enough of a restrained manner), that China couldn't take the risk of invading Taiwan.

If he does NOTHING else, he's still been one of the most effective Presidents ever.

But, he has also done a good job at rebuilding infrastructure with an eye towards the future, getting us to the main covid finish line, and now, creating a bipartisan package which prevents the bomb-throwers from defaulting on the debt, while also keeping inflation in check after the bills for a massive Tax Cut and then massive Stimulus spending for Covid came due during a massive war which exploded gas and other prices to boot.

When one looks at at the things which were realistic to accomplish, he has overachieved massively.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by malchior »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:56 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:53 pm Biden’s legacy will be “I wasn’t Trump!”
Biden prevented WW3 by building up our relationships with NATO and Zelensky after Trump torched them, and then hit exactly the right notes in preventing Ukraine from falling in the first week, supporting Ukraine so forcefully (yet in enough of a restrained manner), that China couldn't take the risk of invading Taiwan.

If he does NOTHING else, he's still been one of the most effective Presidents ever.

But, he has also done a good job at rebuilding infrastructure with an eye towards the future, getting us to the main covid finish line, and now, creating a bipartisan package which prevents the bomb-throwers from defaulting on the debt, while also keeping inflation in check after the bills for a massive Tax Cut and then massive Stimulus spending for Covid came due during a massive war which exploded gas and other prices to boot.

When one looks at at the things which were realistic to accomplish, he has overachieved massively.
Do you actually believe all this? Or is this sarcasm?
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Kraken »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:56 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:53 pm Biden’s legacy will be “I wasn’t Trump!”
Biden prevented WW3 by building up our relationships with NATO and Zelensky after Trump torched them, and then hit exactly the right notes in preventing Ukraine from falling in the first week, supporting Ukraine so forcefully (yet in enough of a restrained manner), that China couldn't take the risk of invading Taiwan.

If he does NOTHING else, he's still been one of the most effective Presidents ever.

But, he has also done a good job at rebuilding infrastructure with an eye towards the future, getting us to the main covid finish line, and now, creating a bipartisan package which prevents the bomb-throwers from defaulting on the debt, while also keeping inflation in check after the bills for a massive Tax Cut and then massive Stimulus spending for Covid came due during a massive war which exploded gas and other prices to boot.

When one looks at at the things which were realistic to accomplish, he has overachieved massively.
+1.
1. Passed the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package to increase investment in the national network of bridges and roads, airports, public transport and national broadband internet, as well as waterways and energy systems.

2. Helped get more than 500 million life-saving COVID-19 vaccinations in the arms of Americans through the American Rescue Plan.

3. Stopped a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence by signing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that created enhanced background checks, closed the “boyfriend” loophole and provided funds for youth mental health.

4. Made a $369 billion investment in climate change, the largest in American history, through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

5. Ended the longest war in American history by pulling the troops out of Afghanistan.

6. Provided $10,000 to $20,000 in college debt relief to Americans with loans who make under $125,000 a year.

7. Cut child poverty in half through the American Rescue Plan.

8. Capped prescription drug prices at $2,000 per year for seniors on Medicare through the Inflation Reduction Act.

9. Passed the COVID-19 relief deal that provided payments of up to $1,400 to many struggling U.S. citizens while supporting renters and increasing unemployment benefits.

10. Achieved historically low unemployment rates after the pandemic caused them to skyrocket.

11. Imposed a 15% minimum corporate tax on some of the largest corporations in the country, ensuring that they pay their fair share, as part of the historic Inflation Reduction Act.

12. Recommitted America to the global fight against climate change by rejoining the Paris Agreement.

13. Strengthened the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine after the Russian invasion by endorsing the inclusion of world military powers Sweden and Finland.

14. Authorized the assassination of the Al Qaeda terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri, who became head of the organization after the death of Osama bin Laden.

15. Gave Medicare the power to negotiate prescription drug prices through the Inflation Reduction Act while also reducing government health spending.

16. Held Vladimir Putin accountable for his invasion of Ukraine by imposing stiff economic sanctions.

17. Boosted the budget of the Internal Revenue Service by nearly $80 billion to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue.

18. Created more jobs in one year (6.6 million) than any other president in U.S. history.

19. Reduced healthcare premiums under the Affordable Care Act by $800 a year as part of the American Rescue Plan.

20. Signed the PACT Act to address service members’ exposure to burn pits and other toxins.

21. Signed the CHIPS and Science Act to strengthen American manufacturing and innovation.

22. Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act through 2027.

23. Halted all federal executions after the previous administration reinstated them after a 17-year freeze.

Source: Upworthy
One can quibble with many of those points; he doesn't deserve full credit for many of them, and there were some major missteps along the way (such as the Afghanistan withdrawal)...but Biden did have a remarkably consequential first two years.
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Pyperkub
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Pyperkub »

malchior wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 6:08 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:56 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:53 pm Biden’s legacy will be “I wasn’t Trump!”
Biden prevented WW3 by building up our relationships with NATO and Zelensky after Trump torched them, and then hit exactly the right notes in preventing Ukraine from falling in the first week, supporting Ukraine so forcefully (yet in enough of a restrained manner), that China couldn't take the risk of invading Taiwan.

If he does NOTHING else, he's still been one of the most effective Presidents ever.

But, he has also done a good job at rebuilding infrastructure with an eye towards the future, getting us to the main covid finish line, and now, creating a bipartisan package which prevents the bomb-throwers from defaulting on the debt, while also keeping inflation in check after the bills for a massive Tax Cut and then massive Stimulus spending for Covid came due during a massive war which exploded gas and other prices to boot.

When one looks at at the things which were realistic to accomplish, he has overachieved massively.
Do you actually believe all this? Or is this sarcasm?
It's backed up vis a vis Ukraine:

RE:NATO
The Biden administration’s secret planning began in April 2021 when Russia massed about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. The buildup turned out to be a feint, but Blinken and other officials discussed U.S. intelligence about Russia’s actions with leaders of Britain, France and Germany at a NATO meeting in Brussels that month. Their message was, “We need to get ourselves prepared,” a senior State Department official said.
RE: UKRAINE PREP
CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to Moscow on Nov. 1 to warn President Vladimir Putin that the United States and its allies were prepared to arm Ukraine and impose crippling sanctions on Russia if he invaded. Putin apparently thought Biden wouldn’t be able to deliver.

Persuading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to take the invasion danger seriously wasn’t easy, initially. Blinken spoke to him at the COP 21 climate summit in Glasgow in early November and provided a summary of intelligence about Russia’s plans. “I basically had the task of telling him that we thought it was likely that his country was going to be invaded,” Blinken recalled. Zelensky was skeptical, according to a State Department official.
RE: PREVENTING FALL in 1st Week of War
U.S. intelligence provided Ukraine with a preview of Putin’s battle plan. Though Russia had surrounded Ukraine with 150,000 troops, Putin’s real strategy was a lightning, decapitating strike on Kyiv by a relatively small group of elite special forces. The Russians planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel, west of the capital, and then use it to quickly pump troops into Kyiv...

...The Ukrainians knew the Russians were coming. Burns had secretly traveled to Kyiv in January to brief Zelensky on the Russian plan, according to two knowledgeable officials. The Ukrainians used the U.S. intelligence to devastate the attacking force at Hostomel, in what may turn out to be the decisive battle of the war. “The Russians had no Plan B,” explained Marek Menkiszak, a Polish intelligence analyst with the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.
RE: CHINA (this is more supposition on my part, but I do think this article shows how China was aware of Russia's imminent invasion and wanted to use it for Chinese gains - IMHO, not just after the Olympics for TV, but also - in my mind - to invade Taiwan - YMMV, but that noise is a LOT lower after the West stopped Putin rather than rolling over AND hit Russia with historic sanctions - specifically booting them out of SWIFT and the Western Financial World - which would terrify China)
A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official....

...China held the closing ceremony of the Olympics on Feb. 20. The next day, Mr. Putin ordered more Russian troops to enter an insurgent-controlled area of eastern Ukraine after state television broadcast a meeting between him and his national security council and, separately, a furious speech in which he said Ukraine should be a part of Russia. Early on Feb. 24, the Russian military began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including carrying out attacks on cities with ballistic missiles, artillery and tanks.
It is extremely easy to just wave away the work the Biden Administration put in for over a year to prevent Ukraine from falling, but it happened and it was bloody hard work, especially after Trump was blackmailing Zelensky to provide dirt on Hunter Biden.

If Trump were President (he's even saying NOW that his plan to end the War in Ukraine is essentially to let Russia have it), Ukraine falls in a week (read above) which then pushes Putin's eye towards Poland - a NATO partner, and China sees that the West is as weak as they have been claiming, and invades Taiwan.

So yeah, the data is mostly there, but we aren't involved in a War in Poland and China right now. And Heck, most World Wars have started with the US on the sidelines - that didn't happen here.

Oh, and there does appear to be intelligence that China would invade Taiwan in 2022:
"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow."

The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."

The author concludes that Moscow's actions had inadvertently trapped Beijing, forcing the Chinese leadership to scuttle its own invasion plans.
China *did* conduct a massive "training" exercise in the Taiwan region in August 2022 as well.
Last edited by Pyperkub on Tue May 30, 2023 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Holman »

A thread a propos:

Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Pyperkub
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Re: The 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

Post by Pyperkub »

Holman wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 7:10 pm A thread a propos:

I can't read that post, I guess I need to be following that person.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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