RECAP: Red Wings drop 7-6 shootout decision to Sabres
Detroit gains a point, but is eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention for seventh straight season
NHL 2022-23 Season
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- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I could post about the crazy Avs game last night, up 2-0, then down 4-2, then winning in OT 5-4, with the last two Avs goals coming on MacKinnon PP bombs. Or maybe about the Bruins being Pretty Very Good And All That™. But I just saw this draft lottery idea and it may be the most entertaining idea in the history of sports. So it can never happen. But...
Here's an idea so absurd it might be brilliant.
Here's an idea so absurd it might be brilliant.
As a bonus, one team would have to draft the Leafs.It’s a topic that I’ve railed about before: The draft order, how best to determine it, and the related issues of tanking and fan bases checking out on the season. As it stands now, we encourage bad teams to lose as much as possible, assign some odds based on the final standings, and then let a barrel full of ping-pong balls sort it out. Surely, there has to be a better way.
By now, you know my view on that one. I’m a big fan of the Gold Plan, the idea that we should determine draft order based on how many points a team earns after being eliminated from the playoffs. It’s a great system, one that gives an advantage to the worst teams while still forcing them to win their way to the top pick and giving their fans a reason to cheer them on and stay engaged. Yes, there are objections, and no, none of them are especially convincing, a case I make here. The Gold Plan rules.
But there are other options. We could scrap the draft entirely. We could go to some sort of auction-based system. We could keep the lottery but change how it works, maybe by flattening the odds so three or five or all of the non-playoff teams (or even all the teams period) have the same shot at the top pick. Maybe you flip the script and give the better picks to the best non-playoff teams, instead of the worst. Maybe we steal the NBA’s idea for The Wheel that they considered but never implemented. Or maybe we even make all the bad teams stick around to compete in a postseason tournament for the top pick, and hope against hope that the exhausted players would actually try. (They wouldn’t)
All solid enough ideas, each with pros and cons. And all of them at least a tiny bit realistic. Today’s idea probably isn’t realistic. It’s also awesome. Let’s get into it.
Here are the key details:
We’re keeping the current system that gives the worst teams the best odds at the top pick, without guaranteeing it. But we’re scrapping the lottery. Not changing it, or tweaking it. It’s gone. No more ping-pong balls.
On the surface, that doesn’t make sense. If there’s no lottery, how do we decide which bad team gets the coveted No. 1 pick?
Simple: By pairing each bad team with one of the good teams that made the postseason. If the playoff team that you’re paired with wins the Stanley Cup, you win too, because you get the first pick.
Let’s assume the Blackhawks finish dead last this year, and use them as an example. Instead of getting top odds and then hoping they get lucky in the lottery, they end up getting paired with this year’s heavy Cup favorites, the Boston Bruins. If the Bruins win it all, the Hawks win the top pick.
Here’s the neat part: The actual odds don’t change all that much. Right now, whichever team finishes dead last has a 25.5 percent chance of “earning” the No. 1 pick in the lottery. Depending on what model you like, the Bruins have very similar odds of winning the Cup. (Dom’s model has recently had them bouncing between 21 percent and 24 percent.) Not quite the same, but pretty close.
Dom’s second-best team right now is the Avs, at 13 percent, almost exactly matching the second-worst team’s 13.5 percent lottery odds. Dom’s third favorite comes in at 12 percent. The lottery odds for that slot are 11.5 percent. Fourth spot is 10 percent for Dom, 9.5 percent for lottery odds.
It’s eerily close. That won’t necessarily be the case every year, but in the parity era, it’s not going to swing wildly. And of course, now that Seattle has joined the league, we’ve got a perfect split between playoff teams and non-playoff teams, with 16 of each. Everyone can pair up.
The Cup winner’s partner team get the first pick in the draft. The second pick goes to the team paired up with Cup Final loser. Third pick to whoever has the conference finals loser that lasts longest, and on down the line, for each of the first 16 picks.
By this point, I’m guessing that you think this sounds silly but find yourself weirdly intrigued. Good. Now comes the question you’re probably wondering about. How do we decide which team gets paired up with which? Not all playoff teams are created equal, so how do we decide which ones are actually better? Do we just rely on regular-season points? Go by the playoff seedings? What about factoring in playoff matchups, or injuries, or who finished strong, or all the other factors that go into deciding who should be considered Cup favorites? How do we assign the teams in a way that ends up being fair?
That’s the beauty of it. We don’t worry about any of that. Those non-playoffs teams do, because each one gets to draft its partner team.
Welcome to the draft pick draft
(OK, the name might need work. I’m open to suggestions.)
This is where the advantage for the bad teams comes in. You finish dead last, you get first pick in the draft of all the playoff teams. In our example, we’re assuming the Blackhawks would take the Bruins, but maybe they’d prefer a team with an easier path through the weaker Western Conference. That’s their choice to make. Then the 31st-place team gets to pick the best of the rest, and so on until all 16 non-playoff teams have their playoff partner.
One more thing, and I hope this goes without saying. Those picks will happen at a special draft that we’ll televise the night before the playoffs start, because dear lord would that ever make for a fascinating night.
You’re telling me you wouldn’t drop absolutely everything to be in front of your TV when each non-playoff team has to announce which team they’re taking as their draft pick ride-or-die? Imagine being a fan of one of those bad teams, arguing with your fellow fans over which team they should take, then watching teams come off the board while you’re waiting for your pick to come up. Or imagine being a fan of one of the playoff teams, sitting there simmering as you watch your team get snubbed with pick after pick while teams you know are worse teams get taken ahead of them.
How would GMs of non-playoff teams decide who to pick? Do you trust your analytics folks, or the pro scouts? Would they let history or rivalries influence their choices? If the Habs ended up last this year, would they actually take Boston? If they did, and you’re a Montreal fan, is the lure of Connor Bedard enough to make you cheer for the hated Bruins to win it all? Imagine a year where the Flames had a chance to pick the Oilers, or the Islanders got the Rangers. And how many friendships between golfing buddies would be destroyed when some GM snubbed his pal’s quasi-contender?
Now imagine watching the playoffs, knowing that both the Stanley Cup and the first pick were on the line. I wouldn’t have thought that it was possible to make the playoffs even more important than they already are, but we just did. As a fan, you might go from being vaguely aware of a contender from the other conference to knowing everything about them as you cheered them on to a Cup win that would give your team the top pick.
I don’t know about you, but I think this sounds a lot more fun than cheering for ping-pong balls or Bill Daly flipping cards for a few minutes.
- stimpy
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
The only thing there that makes any kind of sense is the points after getting eliminated, but that would never work because teams get eliminated at different times. Therefore it would never be an equal amount of games.
I'm all for changing how the picks are determined, but none of what he suggests are viable options.
I'm all for changing how the picks are determined, but none of what he suggests are viable options.
He/Him/His/Porcupine
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
That's the point. Teams with the worst records have a slight advantage, just like the lottery.
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- Zaxxon
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- Zaxxon
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- The Meal
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I made 7 preseason predictions. How’d I do?
From that group NJD really really elevated (due, in no small part, to goaltending), CLB really really cratered (due to everything), and BUF > OTT > DET but these three < The Playoff Line. It will remain fascinating watching these teams rise as new blood in the East in the years ahead.
This was the slam-dunkiest easy prediction to hit. Both WAS and PIT aged out (together, of course) in the East and in the West we lost STL, CGY, and NSH. Fresh blood are NJD, NYI, VGK, SEA, and WPG.
Playoff prediction. I’m less bold about the Rangers not being the EC champs, but overall this seems an easy one to stand by.Lots of folks elevating the Rangers as the Eastern Conference favorite (not I). Carolina seems to be the number two favorite. I’ll take the field (Panthers, if pushed).
OTT and VAN both missed (but Ottawa made strides; Vancouver was a tire fire). The Pacific race was crazy tight to the very end.North of the border folks excited to promote the rise of Ottawa and Vancouver this season. The Pacific playoff race promises to be exciting down the wire.
I’m watching closely the five teams in the East trying to rise to relevance: New Jersey, Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and Columbus. Hard to rank among that group. Likely comes down to goaltending and health.
From that group NJD really really elevated (due, in no small part, to goaltending), CLB really really cratered (due to everything), and BUF > OTT > DET but these three < The Playoff Line. It will remain fascinating watching these teams rise as new blood in the East in the years ahead.
This was also a playoff prediction, but one that’s already failed. In ‘21-‘22 these were the two #1 seeds in the West. In ‘22-‘23, CGY missed the playoffs. A big miss on my part.I’d take Colorado over Calgary in the West. Kings should be a fun story. St Louis is intriguing how they respond to the off season roster losses.
The Panthers squeezed into the postseason with an amazing final third of the season, but they’re up against a biblically strong Bruins in the first round. This is a post-season prediction, and right now it’s not looking too promising.Florida over the Avs for me.
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- pr0ner
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
You're not alone in that CGY miss, Meal. Some poor goaltending combined with awful end game/OT results = no playoffs.
Winning even half of their OT losses gets them in the playoffs.
Winning even half of their OT losses gets them in the playoffs.
Hodor.
- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
It seems that if Markstrom had eliminated even half of his league-leading 'if you're a goaltender, tend the goal!' entries this year, they'd have made it.
- pr0ner
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Yeah, probably so! I really am not sure what happened with him this season.
Hodor.
- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I'm not on this bandwagon, but the Presidents' Trophy curse has entered the chat.
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- TheMix
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Indeed. Though that one hit was truly nasty. I'm amazed that the refs waived it off. He clearly bent his knees and then launched himself upward to hit the other player in the jaw/head with his shoulder. I thought that wasn't allowed. But apparently it's open season.
Which leaves me a bit torn. I want them to beat up on each other so that we have an easier match up. But I really think that the league would be improved if that kind of behavior went away. IMO, the game is about puck handling, passing, skating, shooting, goal tending, and scoring. But if you listen to the announcers, it seems like most of them believe it's about HITTING, HITTING, HITTING, fighting,..........................scoring.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Yeah, I don't understand that call, either. They reviewed the 5-min major call and I thought they were going to drop it to 2, but instead it goes 4-v-4. I get that DAL reacted, but it seems off that the end result is not a DAL power play. The puck was gone, I saw a bit of a launch, as well. I don't think it was 'dirty' per se, and I think the main issue for Pavelski was the way he landed (specifically, by starting with his head), but come on. Someone takes out McDavid that way, the whole team's going to the box.TheMix wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:32 amIndeed. Though that one hit was truly nasty. I'm amazed that the refs waived it off. He clearly bent his knees and then launched himself upward to hit the other player in the jaw/head with his shoulder. I thought that wasn't allowed. But apparently it's open season.
Which leaves me a bit torn. I want them to beat up on each other so that we have an easier match up. But I really think that the league would be improved if that kind of behavior went away. IMO, the game is about puck handling, passing, skating, shooting, goal tending, and scoring. But if you listen to the announcers, it seems like most of them believe it's about HITTING, HITTING, HITTING, fighting,..........................scoring.
Then again, they also weren't calling repeated clear cross-checks to Kaprizov, so what even is a penalty?
I hope Pavelski's ok, and I'd rather not see that type of injury. I do enjoy potential opponents playing an extra half-game each night, though.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I chuckled listening to color commentary from PK Subban in intermission and him defending the hit as something a defender has to do (looking for body contact to finish the check or whatever). Yeah...one of the dirtiest players of his day describing a hit as something he would do doesn't exactly ring the way he thinks.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Had the same thought.gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:58 am I chuckled listening to color commentary from PK Subban in intermission and him defending the hit as something a defender has to do (looking for body contact to finish the check or whatever). Yeah...one of the dirtiest players of his day describing a hit as something he would do doesn't exactly ring the way he thinks.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Jaymann
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I've only watched one game this year and it was a thriller. The Kings jumped out 3-0 over the Oilers and it looked like they would win going away. But Edmonton came storming back to tie it in the second period and force OT at 4-4 with just a couple minutes left. Then they won it with a length of the arena pass and a punch in.
I was rooting for the Kings, but a great game.
I was rooting for the Kings, but a great game.
Jaymann
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Black Lives Matter
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- El Guapo
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- gilraen
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
There may be no such thing as President's Trophy curse but...holy shit. That was something, all right.
- El Guapo
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Maybe this is revenge for the collapse they gave to the Maple Leafs 10ish years ago. Fortunately I am a very casual hockey fan, so this doesn't really hit me all that hard, but for the true Bruins faithful...man.
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- pr0ner
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- The Meal
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I was too overwhelmed with life to post my Round 1 predictions anywhere, but if you can trust me to post them on the eve of the closing of that Round, this honestly where I thought things would go (in order of most confidence to least)...
COL -- bzzt! (how could they ever lose? I didn't pick series lengths, but if I had, this would've been a five-gamer)
CAR -- ding ding ding! (I honestly didn't think much about this series, other than where are the goals gonna come from?)
WPG -- bzzt! (I really was feeling this one based on how things looked down the stretch, now VGK is in the discussion as West favorites)
LAK -- bzzt! (this was a pick with my heart, not my brain)
TBL -- bzzt! (two weeks before the playoffs started I was all-in on TOR in this series, but I hated how things at the end and flip-flopped)
DAL -- ding ding ding! (a part of me really considered whether this could be MIN's year, but ultimately NOPE!)
FLA -- DING DING DING! (some of this is my feeling like I saw the Bs at their worst, but a bigger part of this is because I picked them to win the Cup preseason, and I don't go back on my stupid worthless predictions)
NYR -- we'll see... (definitely says something that I was less confident on the Rangers than I was in the Panthers)
Should be a very fun night of watchin'.
COL -- bzzt! (how could they ever lose? I didn't pick series lengths, but if I had, this would've been a five-gamer)
CAR -- ding ding ding! (I honestly didn't think much about this series, other than where are the goals gonna come from?)
WPG -- bzzt! (I really was feeling this one based on how things looked down the stretch, now VGK is in the discussion as West favorites)
LAK -- bzzt! (this was a pick with my heart, not my brain)
TBL -- bzzt! (two weeks before the playoffs started I was all-in on TOR in this series, but I hated how things at the end and flip-flopped)
DAL -- ding ding ding! (a part of me really considered whether this could be MIN's year, but ultimately NOPE!)
FLA -- DING DING DING! (some of this is my feeling like I saw the Bs at their worst, but a bigger part of this is because I picked them to win the Cup preseason, and I don't go back on my stupid worthless predictions)
NYR -- we'll see... (definitely says something that I was less confident on the Rangers than I was in the Panthers)
Should be a very fun night of watchin'.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
- Hrdina
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
This goal should have been seen as a bad omen.
bzzt! (thankfully)
Conform or be cast out!
- The Meal
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Keeping with tradition, I thought I'd post my Round 2 predictions after the games started. (Believe 'em or don't.)
DAL, NJD, VGK, and FLA
Hilariously the past two nights have given us players who've scored 4 goals (which has only happened for 41 players in the NHL playoffs), both of whom lost the game (which has happened five times in the past). A new curse!
Of the 8 remaining teams in the playoffs, you have to go back to 2006 to find a Cup victory in their history. Exciting times for fans looking for some new blood at the top.
Apparently the EDM-VGK game last night was a real burner, but I didn't stay up for it nor have I watched the highlights yet. I'll listen to the recap on NHL Network Radio and seek out the highlights tonight.
DAL, NJD, VGK, and FLA
Hilariously the past two nights have given us players who've scored 4 goals (which has only happened for 41 players in the NHL playoffs), both of whom lost the game (which has happened five times in the past). A new curse!
Of the 8 remaining teams in the playoffs, you have to go back to 2006 to find a Cup victory in their history. Exciting times for fans looking for some new blood at the top.
Apparently the EDM-VGK game last night was a real burner, but I didn't stay up for it nor have I watched the highlights yet. I'll listen to the recap on NHL Network Radio and seek out the highlights tonight.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
- Unagi
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
The Chicago Blackhawks just won the NHL Draft Lottery.
Connor Bedard should be headed our way.
Connor Bedard should be headed our way.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Is that the only guy they need not to suck? Or are they going to do what the Bears did, and trade for a bunch of draft picks that might make a difference.
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- Unagi
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Bedard is predicted to be a franchise changer. And he’s 17.
You take him.
You take him.
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
I've seen so many of those shit the bed in every sport. It's possible to be completely dominant in every level below the big-time, then be utterly hopeless when competing with the best of the best. Since being a "franchise changer" could be interpreted both ways (he could change them to be even suckier), I rather agree with the way the Bears are going about mitigating risk and addressing multiple needs, as well a future flexibility. My concern is this guy could be Walter Payton on skates -- a phenomenal talent surrounded by dreck most of his career.
Now, hockey is more like baseball in that you often never hear of draftees again after draft day (although the can't-miss prospects do tend to be followed, even if along the lines of "his mother must be so disappointed"). This will always be the case with teenagers...their character is not yet developed and they could have all of the talent in the world and piss it away on hookers and blow (see Manziel, J.)
Should they draft him, they'd do well to keep him in the playpen for a few years while continuing to suck at the big-league level and maybe grab a supporting cast so that maybe, just maybe, we usher in the next generation of Toews/Kane/Keith.
Black Lives Matter
- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
Not gonna happen.
- pr0ner
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
There is no chance, at all, that the Blackhawks will pass on the chance of drafting Bedard.
And unless he gets hurt, he'll be in the NHL immediately.
The number of overall #1 draft pick busts in the NHL is remarkably small.
And unless he gets hurt, he'll be in the NHL immediately.
The number of overall #1 draft pick busts in the NHL is remarkably small.
Hodor.
- Zaxxon
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
And it's not like he's entirely green, here. He's been Gretzkying the WHL and WJC for a couple years now. Is he guaranteed to be the next McDavid/Crosby/MacKinnon? No. Is it overwhelmingly likely? Yeah.
- stimpy
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
They have sold at minimum over $6 million dollars of new season ticket plans since the draft lottery.
They would piss off a whole lot of people if they didnt sign him.
He/Him/His/Porcupine
- gilraen
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
There's always that possibility. How many cups does Connor McDavid have? (spoiler alert: none. Also, the Oilers haven't won the Cup since Gretzky/Messier years).
However, just because the Blackhawks will sign him now doesn't mean that he has to stay with them forever. Also, Blackhawks have proven that they can win in the cap era, so they may very well rebuild the team around him.
- pr0ner
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Re: NHL 2022-23 Season
The Arizona Coyotes time in Arizona is likely highly limited, as Tempe voters rejected all three arena related propositions that were on the ballot yesterday.
Hodor.
- Zaxxon
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