The Trump Trial Tribulations Thread
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- hepcat
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I would love to learn King Gorilla bought Trump for 2 packs of cigarettes in the pen, but he won’t get any form of punishment whatsoever. He’s created a cult and there’s too many now.
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- El Guapo
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Honestly at the end of the day, probably depends on the 2024 election.
Black Lives Matter.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I'm perfectly fine with an actuarial table win.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Yep. If justice/consequences comes in the form of natural causes, I’m 100% fine with that as well, just as long as it comes sooner rather than later.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
O yes please, let's canonize him and move on. He's already displaced St. Reagan.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Same.
In other news, he definitely is attempting to kick off a battle in NYC and making an implicit appeal to the NYPD. Cool. And the GOP has the nerve to project about 'third world' status?
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
This is a terrible case things indict Trump on:
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Anything he can do to delay is a win. Will it work this time? Probably.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
This is really a silly analysis that pretends to lean on pragmatism. He is basing his opinion on the results of one trial? One jury? Frum has had a bad week for critical thinking. Legal experts rate this case on mixed terms for sure but predicting based on this factor? And then doubling down on that by talking about jury biases...I don't get it.
Edit: He also makes a point about it not being the best case at the right time which Marshall at TPM talks about in the right terms. IMO it'd be FAR WORSE if we found out multiple jurisdictions were somehow communicating to influence their timing and decisions based on other legal cases. Frum has unfortunately not thought this out to the appropriate depth.
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- Kurth
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Leaning too hard into the Edwards precedent isn’t super persuasive, but it is one data point, and the truth is, we don’t have many of those when it comes to pursuing these kinds of charges. I wouldn’t give it too much weight, but it is interesting to note that in one of the only other cases of charges of this type - arguably stronger than the charges against Trump - were brought, they went down in flames.
Here’s the problem I see with this: The weakness in these charges against Trump just lend credence to the notion that he’s being targeted. I don’t want Garland-style caution and inaction necessarily, but I do want to believe that the people who are deciding to prosecute are doing their best to at least appear that they’re more of less above the political fray. Bragg’s prosecution of Trump doesn’t have that appearance at all. In fact, it’s the opposite.
And, as a result, Fox News is able to bring out credible analysts - not batshit crazy Q idiots - who can sanely mount a defense for Trump and attack the prosecution as politically-biased. Case in point from this morning: Elliot Felig is a former prosecutor at the Manhattan DA’s Office. Fox had him on this morning (link to video) to talk about why the case against Trump is so weak and, specifically, why the prosecution is so outside the norms for the office. I worked with Elliot at the Manhattan DA’s Office when he was a new ADA and I was a paralegal thinking about law school. He’s a good guy, and while we don’t exactly see eye to eye on politics, he’s very, very far from batshit crazy. I just think it’s an unfortunate and bad look to be giving Trump and his allies low hanging fruit to swing at while the authorities may be on the verge of bringing real, substantive charges against him for serious crimes.
Every win Trump gets helps him in the eyes of the MAGA cult, and I think it’s a mistake to believe that cult is a monolith - like all others, there’s a spectrum of belief, despite what we see on social media every day.
Here’s the problem I see with this: The weakness in these charges against Trump just lend credence to the notion that he’s being targeted. I don’t want Garland-style caution and inaction necessarily, but I do want to believe that the people who are deciding to prosecute are doing their best to at least appear that they’re more of less above the political fray. Bragg’s prosecution of Trump doesn’t have that appearance at all. In fact, it’s the opposite.
And, as a result, Fox News is able to bring out credible analysts - not batshit crazy Q idiots - who can sanely mount a defense for Trump and attack the prosecution as politically-biased. Case in point from this morning: Elliot Felig is a former prosecutor at the Manhattan DA’s Office. Fox had him on this morning (link to video) to talk about why the case against Trump is so weak and, specifically, why the prosecution is so outside the norms for the office. I worked with Elliot at the Manhattan DA’s Office when he was a new ADA and I was a paralegal thinking about law school. He’s a good guy, and while we don’t exactly see eye to eye on politics, he’s very, very far from batshit crazy. I just think it’s an unfortunate and bad look to be giving Trump and his allies low hanging fruit to swing at while the authorities may be on the verge of bringing real, substantive charges against him for serious crimes.
Every win Trump gets helps him in the eyes of the MAGA cult, and I think it’s a mistake to believe that cult is a monolith - like all others, there’s a spectrum of belief, despite what we see on social media every day.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Maybe. It is also possible it looks political because that is what is being screamed loudly at 130 dB.Kurth wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:46 amHere’s the problem I see with this: The weakness in these charges against Trump just lend credence to the notion that he’s being targeted. I don’t want Garland-style caution and inaction necessarily, but I do want to believe that the people who are deciding to prosecute are doing their best to at least appear that they’re more of less above the political fray. Bragg’s prosecution of Trump doesn’t have that appearance at all. In fact, it’s the opposite.
The problem here is that anything touching Trump is inherently political. It's very easy to over-rotate on the political question. But when anyone begins the analysis there it clouds the whole thing. It injects the bias from the get go.
How many otherwise reasonable people have we seen gone off the rails in the current political environment? Not to say he has but it is a risk we have to consider. Especially since it is Fox News. Edit: It doesn't help that the clip I linked below splits into him weighing in on Hunter Biden. Maybe he was a good guy at one point but he is sounding pretty MAGA adjacent.I worked with Elliot at the Manhattan DA’s Office when he was a new ADA and I was a paralegal thinking about law school. He’s a good guy, and while we don’t exactly see eye to eye on politics, he’s very, very far from batshit crazy. I just think it’s an unfortunate and bad look to be giving Trump and his allies low hanging fruit to swing at while the authorities may be on the verge of bringing real, substantive charges against him for serious crimes.
Even with that factor we need to consider he almost certainly has been cherry picked him for his viewpoint and his combination of experience at the office. And we don't get a sense of important questions. For instance, was his experience recent? Different DAs have different styles and operating parameters. I have a feeling his tenure wasn't recent and might not be a good source of insight about the current office.
In any case, my biggest concern is the clear problem of bias I mention above. In another spot (link here) Stuart Varney tees him up on this political angle, and he starts from the jump by analyzing it from a political framework. It's completely loaded and easy to steer from there.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I didn’t see that clip the way you did. He wasn’t arguing that Joe Biden or Hunter Biden should be prosecuted. He was arguing that there’s enough smoke to get some local yocal prosecutor in some MAGA-friendly jurisdiction to bring charges, even if they’re weak.
His point was that this case against Trump shouldn’t be a local case. It should be a federal prosecution if it should be at all. He is arguing that it’s dangerous to have local prosecutors stepping in to bring these types of charges, and his “shoe on the other foot” argument is one I think people shouldn’t dismiss.
His point was that this case against Trump shouldn’t be a local case. It should be a federal prosecution if it should be at all. He is arguing that it’s dangerous to have local prosecutors stepping in to bring these types of charges, and his “shoe on the other foot” argument is one I think people shouldn’t dismiss.
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- Smoove_B
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
It probably should be a federal case but for whatever reason there just doesn't seem to be any forward motion there. I know people keep saying these things take time and because it's never been done before it's going to take extra long, but meanwhile he's getting ready to launch his 2024 campaign and take another run at democracy. If what we're seeing at a federal level represents an "all hands on deck" legal response to 1/6, then we're boned.
Unrelated, it's nice to see paranoia among the deplorables
Unrelated, it's nice to see paranoia among the deplorables
A quick update: Pro-Trump influencers are trying to organize anti-indictment rallies tonight, one in NYC and one at Mar-a-Lago, mostly on Telegram.
Trump fans are mostly telling each other not to go, saying it's a fed trap. This mirrors most pro-Trump protest failures since 1/6.
Part of the problem is that the potential pro-Trump NYC protest is at a heretofore non-public secret location, making it all seem sketchier to people who might want to go.
You have to sign up for an email list to find it and it's supposed to start in less than 4 hours.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about when Stuart Varney teed him up with a question about what do you think about the Hunter Biden thing over the weekend. He dropped a fairly straight MAGA folklore frame right around it. To wit, he said (to paraphrase), we were told it was Russian disinformation. Except that is wildly out of context. That is a reference to a group of national security experts who said the initial release of emails from Hunter Biden was potential Russian misinformation. And then he attached information from an unrelated case. In other words, he stood up a strawman and blew it down. Is that credible behavior? Eye of the beholder I guess. Anyway, all I'm saying is it along with the day's length Fox News parade sort of undercuts the claim he is just some fair-minded prosecutor giving us his unvarnished opinion. It's not like the Fox News brand is unvarnished itself.Kurth wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:28 pm I didn’t see that clip the way you did. He wasn’t arguing that Joe Biden or Hunter Biden should be prosecuted. He was arguing that there’s enough smoke to get some local yocal prosecutor in some MAGA-friendly jurisdiction to bring charges, even if they’re weak.
HIs argument has a significant problem though. He starts from the position that it shouldn't be a federal case. That is however arguably based on limited insight into the case. It is a still in progress presentation to a grand jury. He doesn't know all the details. None of us do. Yet he is making strong declarative statements about it. I've heard a decent round of talks about this case and generally speaking they aren't as declarative for these reasons. They'll talk in generalities but he is specifically arguing a narrow point which could look foolish if being accurate mattered. Which in this case...it doesn't.His point was that this case against Trump shouldn’t be a local case. It should be a federal prosecution if it should be at all.
We should absolutely dismiss it...until we have evidence that it should guide us. He can make much of the same argument in Fulton County too if he wanted. It'd be just as suspect too.He is arguing that it’s dangerous to have local prosecutors stepping in to bring these types of charges, and his “shoe on the other foot” argument is one I think people shouldn’t dismiss.
Just to cut from a different angle on the local vs. federal angle. Let's just assume the DA became aware that a crime was potentially committed in their locality. The Manhattan DA's office is supposed to make a charging decision based on their own lawful investigation and collected evidence. Independently. Sure they might analyze jurisdictional issues and even make inquiries to overlapping authorities. However, we don't have much information about efforts there. The Manhattan DA's office may very well have done that and found gaps/opportunities in the law, authorities, and otherwise found strong rationales for moving forward. Again we haven't seen the case that was presented.
Instead this sounds more to me like it is part of a trial by public opinion meant to undermine the potential prosecution before it begins. This is IMO premised on a clearly biased assumption that Bragg must be doing this for political reasons. This isn't a strong argument and there is significant risk he was brought on for a specific purpose; to divide us and muddle the issues. In other words, it's potentially propaganda. Maybe not as well, but we'll see if his argument holds up when we know more details.
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Oh, and yeah, There's always a tweet!
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
That one is cheating.Pyperkub wrote:Oh, and yeah, There's always a tweet!
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Zaxxon
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
No indictment today, and apparently won't be one tomorrow.
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Sorry, Couldn't find the SVU version?
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
And in related news, the usual suspects are at it again...
Right-Wing Radio Host Calls For Execution of Obama and Others if Trump’s Indicted
Oh dear lord.And ultimately, we demand, we absolutely demand that the criminals, the criminals in this country, if you want them held accountable, the criminals are Barack Obama, Eric Holder, Susan Rice, this entire criminal cabal that came about as a result of the murder of John F. Kennedy, the people that perpetrated the murder of John F. Kennedy, rise up to that.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
He keeps forgetting his lines and checks his notes. Not sure which is more dangerous. Really believing that nonsense or just doing it for the grift.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
It's so strange that he principally named for death former leaders who just happen to be black.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Who else would be pulling strings back in 1963 but a cabal of black 12-year-olds and toddlers and a black woman who wasn't even born yet? I mean that's probably how they got away with it.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
And Lee Harvey Oswald was actually attempting to purge transvestite grooming books from the depository.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I think Trump has proven that the real monster is the person that is actually both. A rare bird, but...LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:00 pm He keeps forgetting his lines and checks his notes. Not sure which is more dangerous. Really believing that nonsense or just doing it for the grift.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I hadn't even thought of that - CRT FTW!
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
For those wrestling with the state vs. federal issues - Just Security put together a survey of cases that contemplates a potential prosecution based on the legal precedents in NY state. Worth a read/skim if anyone is interested in the internals even if the picture is yet incomplete.
Just Security
Just Security
Of particular interest to me is this one:A core crime that the Manhattan District Attorney will likely include in an indictment of former President Donald Trump is “falsifying business records in the first degree,” a felony under New York State law (N.Y. Penal Code § 175.10). Prosecutors and indeed all of us are compelled by the rule of law to consider how such a charge compares to past prosecutions. Are like cases being treated alike?
Here it appears they are. Prosecution of falsifying business records in the first degree is commonplace and has been used by New York district attorneys’ offices to hold to account a breadth of criminal behavior from the more petty and simple to the more serious and highly organized. We reach this conclusion after surveying the past decade and a half of criminal cases across all the New York district attorneys’ offices.
I was under the impression Bragg would have to succeed at both proving the falsification and the predicate crime to secure a felony conviction for falsifying business records. That appears to not be the case. Based on what we know of the federal case and Cohen's public comments, there is a good body of evidence indicating Trump directed the falsification of business records. It'll come down to nature of the predicate crime charged, the ability to show intent, etc. but I am now getting a sense why folks who know NY law have said he faces real risk of conviction.The People of the State of New York v. Jason Holley (November 2016) — Convicted by jury of falsifying business records in the first degree but acquitted of the predicate crime, insurance fraud.
- Blackhawk
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Now, if we can just find enough people neutral on Trump to fill a jury box...
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
I'm sure you know this, but you don't have to be neutral. You just have to be able to set aside your feelings and judge the case based on the evidence presented.
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- Blackhawk
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Oh, I know. But between the two teams of attorneys, it's going to be one hell of a selection process.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Well, it’s more likely to be one team of attorneys and one team of clowns given the lawyers generally willing to work for Trump these days.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
There's a lot more to be gained defending Trump in a landmark criminal case than being his cleaner and gopher. I would expect a higher caliber here.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
True. Who will then ask, under penalty, "Have you heard any bad press or social media commentary about the defendant?" and use that to delay, delay, delay. And delaying may be Trump's best defense.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Remember the Republicans love to investigate and try and charge Democrats no matter who they are and whether they are candidates for president.
Will we see red state AG's trying to do the same to Dems as retaliation? Probably. It will be tit-for-tat and everyone will be the poorer. I'd really like to see Trump face justice on this; why is everyone waiting for the “perfect indictment”? That’s how he keeps getting away with this stuff!! People seem to want something totally obvious like gunning someone down in front of the White House rather than a “dodgy” State interpretation of the law or a coup attempt or trump university or etc etc.
Will we see red state AG's trying to do the same to Dems as retaliation? Probably. It will be tit-for-tat and everyone will be the poorer. I'd really like to see Trump face justice on this; why is everyone waiting for the “perfect indictment”? That’s how he keeps getting away with this stuff!! People seem to want something totally obvious like gunning someone down in front of the White House rather than a “dodgy” State interpretation of the law or a coup attempt or trump university or etc etc.
- pr0ner
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Not that Trump cares about optics much, but the look on this one is less than ideal.
Hodor.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
Now depoliticized.
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Re: Trump Indictment Watch
You can tell they are not real because there is one with Trump running