Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Unagi
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Unagi »

Grifman wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 7:46 pm Trump says he will run even if indicted
Because anyone on the planet earth thought otherwise?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kurth »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:

I’ll say it again: There is no threat to this country like Donald J. Trump. None.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kurth »

El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:06 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
Yes.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:27 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:06 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
Yes.
Ok, well, be sure to tell those people out there somewhere that they are wrong, then.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kurth »

El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:08 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:27 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:06 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
Yes.
Ok, well, be sure to tell those people out there somewhere that they are wrong, then.
Are you really telling me you haven't seen a not insignificant number of talking heads suggesting that it's a viable strategy for the Democrats to boost the worst and most extreme MAGA candidates in GOP primaries in order to secure general election victory?

We've had discussions about that here as well.

It's not like this is some obscure idea. Honestly, I'm missing the point of the snark here.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

I think there was discussion about Democrats boosting local (county? state?) MAGA lunatics. I'm not sure I've seen anyone suggesting the Democrats try and boost TFG in any capacity, but I'll fully defer to others that might be following this more closely.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:01 pm I think there was discussion about Democrats boosting local (county? state?) MAGA lunatics. I'm not sure I've seen anyone suggesting the Democrats try and boost TFG in any capacity, but I'll fully defer to others that might be following this more closely.
I was going to say the exact same thing. The Democrats are terrible at risk management but I don't think this idea extends to Trump himself. Everyone outside MAGA recognizes the danger. Excepting notably all the people who have the actual power to do anything about it. :grund:
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:58 am
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:08 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:27 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:06 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
Yes.
Ok, well, be sure to tell those people out there somewhere that they are wrong, then.
Are you really telling me you haven't seen a not insignificant number of talking heads suggesting that it's a viable strategy for the Democrats to boost the worst and most extreme MAGA candidates in GOP primaries in order to secure general election victory?

We've had discussions about that here as well.

It's not like this is some obscure idea. Honestly, I'm missing the point of the snark here.
We have talked about whether it makes sense for Democrats to boost particular Republican extremists in specific races to boost their odds of winning those races. I haven't read or heard a single person suggesting that Democrats boost Trump in order to win the 2024 presidential race (nor anyone suggest that it's *always* a good idea for Democrats to boost extremists).

Obviously there's an idiot for every opinion and the like, but I don't think that boosting Trump is something that people are seriously toying with.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kurth »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:10 pm
Kurth wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:58 am
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:08 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:27 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:06 pm
Kurth wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:18 pm Not the transcript, but the closing remarks I believe:

Trump claimed that the country, as he sees it, “will be lost forever” if he does not prevail in 2024.

“This is the final battle – they know it, I know it, you know it, everybody knows it. Either they win, or we win. And I promise you this: If you put me back in the White House, their reign will be over, and America will be a free nation once again,” Trump said.
But sure, let’s keep playing with the idea that it’s a sound Democratic strategy to boost Trump because he’s sure to lose in the general. :roll:
Is anyone saying that?
Yes.
Ok, well, be sure to tell those people out there somewhere that they are wrong, then.
Are you really telling me you haven't seen a not insignificant number of talking heads suggesting that it's a viable strategy for the Democrats to boost the worst and most extreme MAGA candidates in GOP primaries in order to secure general election victory?

We've had discussions about that here as well.

It's not like this is some obscure idea. Honestly, I'm missing the point of the snark here.
We have talked about whether it makes sense for Democrats to boost particular Republican extremists in specific races to boost their odds of winning those races. I haven't read or heard a single person suggesting that Democrats boost Trump in order to win the 2024 presidential race (nor anyone suggest that it's *always* a good idea for Democrats to boost extremists).

Obviously there's an idiot for every opinion and the like, but I don't think that boosting Trump is something that people are seriously toying with.
Ok, fair enough. Maybe I was thinking about the talk of boosting down-ballot MAGA candidates. I hereby accept your snark as well-deserved and retract my original eye roll emoji.

I guess I was kind of triggered by this article from Brookings I read the other day:
Is this the end of Trump? Yes, but that's not good news for Democrats.

I'm both skeptical that it's really the end for Trump and incredulous that anyone would care about how that plays out for Democrats given how important it is for this country that Trump be banished from the political stage.

But, in case anyone ever does get the idea that boosting Trump is a good idea, you heard it here first: It's not! :D
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Yeah, that Brookins article is dumb in a couple ways. First, it does seem to suggest that Democrats shouldn't be happy about a transition from a Trumpist GOP party to a non-Trumpist / sane but more successful GOP party. That's dumb - even if it means losing additional elections, Democrats should welcome a healthy / sane GOP due to the impact on the country.

Second, the article doesn't really reckon with the fact that there isn't really a healthy / sane / non-Trumpist GOP on the horizon.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

I can't believe Chris Christie is genuinely trying to offer his thoughts:
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie does what other 2024 Republican presidential contenders rarely do by condemning presumptive frontrunner Donald Trump, even if the rebuke comes two election cycles too late.

Christie idled on a chance to chastise Trump when they shared a debate stage in 2016 – something he now calls a "strategic error." He supported the former president in 2016 and 2020, helping with debate preparation and more.

But the final straw for Christie came on election night in 2020, when Trump stood behind the presidential seal and falsely claimed the election had been stolen.

"When you put yourself ahead of our democracy as president of the United States, it's over," Christie said.

...

Christie said Republicans need to find someone who can do to Trump what he did to Marco Rubio in a 2016 debate, when Rubio awkwardly repeated talking points as Christie knocked him off his game. That's the only thing that will defeat Trump, Christie said.
Note, the final straw wasn't when TFG tried to kill Christie by giving him Covid during debate preparation.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

Former Arkansas governor announced he's running for President:
“I’m confident that people want leaders that want the best of the America, not those who appeal to their worst instincts,” Hutchinson told ABC’s “This Week” in an interview aired Sunday. He said he would make a formal announcement in April in Arkansas.

...

Hutchinson, 72, left office in January after eight years as governor. He has ramped up his criticism of the former president in recent months, calling another Trump presidential nomination the “worst scenario” for Republicans and saying it likely benefit President Joe Biden’s chances in 2024.

In addition to Trump, Hutchinson joins a Republican field that also includes former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to jump into the race in the summer, while U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are among those considering bids.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Apr 02, 2023 1:15 pm Former Arkansas governor announced he's running for President:
“I’m confident that people want leaders that want the best of the America, not those who appeal to their worst instincts,” Hutchinson told ABC’s “This Week” in an interview aired Sunday.
That's cute.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »



MAGA loves indictments.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Yeah, not sure a poll from March 31st to April 3rd tells us much about the impact of the impact of what happened on April 4th. Even understanding that the indictment was reported on Thursday, not sure the poll is that useful in understanding even the impact of the reporting of the indictment.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm confident support for TFG went up after yesterday - because this is absolutely the worst timeline.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:01 pm I'm confident support for TFG went up after yesterday - because this is absolutely the worst timeline.
Also the reaction now doesn't really matter. What's the impact going to be two months from now? Six months?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Alefroth »

His support may be higher among those who were going to vote for him anyway. DeSantis was flailing even before the indictment announcement.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

He’s got his base and that’s it:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

Plus everyone that will just vote for whatever trash heap the GOP nominates because doing anything else is unthinkable.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kraken »

A poll of 566 adults isn't very illuminating. You need 1,000+ if you want to generalize the result. Still encouraging, just not very meaningful.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 9:08 am Plus everyone that will just vote for whatever trash heap the GOP nominates because doing anything else is unthinkable.
This. I don't take much solace in the poll results. Whether people think favorably of TFG is irrelevant. We know from experience that they will likely hold their noses and vote for him anyway. :(

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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll but you're probably talking about accurate level of 25-30% really. The margin error doesn't dramatically jump until you get to a couple thousand or so.

In any case, that's a dip but not a huge dip from his unfavourability in 2016 which was 35% or so. We have to figure people's opinions have hardened about him at this point. You know what you are getting. We know he is an unstable, racist, authoritarian thug for sure. And we don't know how people will vote for him despite that but the EC makes him a viable candidate nonetheless. This result doesn't change that math IMO especially with Biden rocking shit numbers too.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Unagi »

malchior wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:32 pm It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll

Enlarge Image

sorry. :(
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:32 pm It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll but you're probably talking about accurate level of 25-30% really. The margin error doesn't dramatically jump until you get to a couple thousand or so.

In any case, that's a dip but not a huge dip from his unfavourability in 2016 which was 35% or so. We have to figure people's opinions have hardened about him at this point. You know what you are getting. We know he is an unstable, racist, authoritarian thug for sure. And we don't know how people will vote for him despite that but the EC makes him a viable candidate nonetheless. This result doesn't change that math IMO especially with Biden rocking shit numbers too.
My assumption is that Trump's indictment(s) will move the long-term equilibrium on Trump for a material number of independent and low-information voters. I think "Trump seems corrupt and/or unethical" is already baked in, but actual indictments will probably influence people's sense of how acute the issue is. But I agree that the impact won't be enough to make Trump a non-viable candidate given the Electoral College.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by YellowKing »

While Biden is an unfavorable candidate, he's unfavorable in the traditional sense. I think if you put Biden up against an unknown, he's in trouble. Put him up against someone as deeply despised as Trump, and I still like his chances.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Grifman »

Another Republican may help split the field:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kurth »

Unagi wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:28 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:32 pm It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll

Enlarge Image

sorry. :(
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Unagi »

Kurth wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:50 am
Unagi wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:28 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:32 pm It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll

Enlarge Image

sorry. :(
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Unagi wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 1:30 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:50 am
Unagi wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:28 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:32 pm It'd 100% be better if they had a bigger poll

Enlarge Image

sorry. :(
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

Update on former NJ Governor Chris Christie and his dreams of being President:


Scoop: Multiple sources with direct knowledge are telling me that @ChrisChristie will be announcing a run for President in the coming days. The campaign will be focused on New Hampshire and will have the financial backing of Mets owner Steve Cohen, among others.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

I hope Christie does run, even though he's a turd and his chances of getting elected are effectively zero. Nothing's going to change on the GOP side unless and until someone is willing to say to GOP voters that Trump is a bad person who is not fit to be president. Christie's one of the few people who (especially with billionaire Cohen backing) can say that and attract media attention.

I don't think that anyone on the GOP primary is going to listen and I don't think that Christie is going to go anywhere, but people making that argument are part of any way out of this mess.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

It's sad that Christie would probably be the least problematic GOP actor in the race. A throwback to...2012...when the GOP was still mostly "only" about abuses of power in their self-interest. FWIW Christie's plan is better than DeSantis who is focusing on Iowa which seems ... dubious.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Fri May 19, 2023 1:59 pm It's sad that Christie would probably be the least problematic GOP actor in the race. A throwback to...2012...when the GOP was still mostly "only" about abuses of power in their self-interest. FWIW Christie's plan is better than DeSantis who is focusing on Iowa which seems ... dubious.
Indeed. Also sad that the best and brightest minds of the GOP surveyed their 2024 prospects and seem to have genuinely thought that calling Trump a loser was going to be enough for them to beat Trump.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

What's notable is that if you look at the last 3 Tweets from Chris Christie, they're all attacks on Trump:
More nonsense from Donald Trump last night. Fact: He promised to build a big beautiful wall on the border. Fact: He did not deliver & immigrants are pouring over the border. Fact: He said Mexico would pay for it. Fact: We have not gotten one peso yet. He failed us on immigration.

Donald Trump says he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours tonight on CNN. Despite how ridiculous that is to say, I suspect he would try to do it by turning Ukraine over to Putin and Russia. #Putin’sPuppet

Donald Trump refused to say tonight that he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia. More proof that he continues to be Putin’s puppet.
If that is going to be his strategy, well...I guess things are going to get interesting.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by ImLawBoy »

I'm personally looking forward to Christie helping out Trump with debate prep in the general election.

(Just kidding. Trump won't debate.)
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 19, 2023 2:15 pm What's notable is that if you look at the last 3 Tweets from Chris Christie, they're all attacks on Trump:
More nonsense from Donald Trump last night. Fact: He promised to build a big beautiful wall on the border. Fact: He did not deliver & immigrants are pouring over the border. Fact: He said Mexico would pay for it. Fact: We have not gotten one peso yet. He failed us on immigration.

Donald Trump says he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours tonight on CNN. Despite how ridiculous that is to say, I suspect he would try to do it by turning Ukraine over to Putin and Russia. #Putin’sPuppet

Donald Trump refused to say tonight that he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia. More proof that he continues to be Putin’s puppet.
If that is going to be his strategy, well...I guess things are going to get interesting.
Yeah, this is part of my point. The blunt "Trump is a bad person" market in the GOP field is completely empty. Now that's for a good reason (there probably aren't many anti-Trump GOP voters) BUT there is a small chance that there's a non-trivial number of such voters that are being ignored because everyone's just assuming that they don't exist. If Christie can get any traction at all with his arguments, that gives some hope for the future.

It's a wish and a prayer, to be sure, but I'm glad that someone is poised to at least try it.

Of course, the other problem (and part of the reason that the GOP and the country is in this mess) is that the GOP elite are not willing to give their voters any policy concessions on substance (e.g., progressive taxation) so they're stuck peddling culture war nonsense which Trump has a lock on. Can Christie get anywhere with anti-Trump arguments *and* regressive GOP policies? I doubt it, but who knows.
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Smoove_B
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Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

To be clear, I don't think it's going to have any impact on Trump or his trajectory. I think I'm more interested in seeing how the GOP en masse responds to someone (with a little bit of political capital) within their own party launching reasonable criticisms of their party's deity.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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