Ukraine

[malchior]

That seems like it should be huge news this morning.

I find myself saying this a lot lately. The media is failing us utterly.

[LordMortis]

Not even on CNN's front page where there is a featured section on "Russia's War in Ukraine"

https://www.cnn.com/

[malchior]

WaPo ran a story that largely aligns with the AP story - they have a partnership so that tracks. NY Times covered the Prime Minister stepping down a few days ago but nothing. It didn't make the morning news reel where they talked endlessly about MSU. It's all clicks all the time and practically no Americans even know that Moldova exists - there are no clicks in it.

[Max Peck]

‘They Didn’t Understand Anything, but Just Spoiled People’s Lives’

On the night of February 24, 2022, the sound of missiles jolted Viktor Marunyak awake. He saw flashes in the sky and billowing black smoke; then he got dressed and went to work. Marunyak is the mayor of Stara Zburjivka, a village just across the Dnipro River from Kherson, and he headed immediately to an emergency meeting with leaders of other nearby villages to discuss their options. They quickly realized that they were already too late to connect with the Ukrainian army. Their region was cut off. They were occupied.

Occupied. Marunyak had been expecting the war to break out, but he had no sense of what a Russian occupation of his village might mean. Like his colleagues, Marunyak is an elected official—genuinely elected, since 2006, under Ukrainian laws giving real power to local governments, not appointed following a falsified plebiscite, as a similar official might have been in the Soviet era or might be in modern Russia. That meant that when the occupation began, he felt an enormous responsibility to stay in Stara Zburjivka and help his constituents cope with a cascade of emergencies. “Already, within a few days, there were families lacking food,” he recalls. “There was no bread or flour, so I was trying to buy grain from the farmers … Many residents began contributing the food they could share, and so we created a fund, providing assistance on demand.”

Similar plans were made to locate and distribute medications. Because the Ukrainian police had ceased to function, citizens formed nighttime security patrols staffed with local volunteers. Marunyak prepared to negotiate with whoever the Russians sent to Stara Zburjivka. “I told people not to be afraid, saying, when the Russians would come, I’ll be the first to talk to them.”

He was. And he paid a horrific price for it.

[Daehawk]

[Max Peck]

1st class of Ukraine fighters finishes advanced US training

The first class of 635 Ukrainian fighters has finished a five-week advanced U.S. training course in Germany on sophisticated combat skills and armored vehicles that will be critical in the coming spring offensive against the Russians, the Pentagon said Friday.

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said that additional training is already underway at the Grafenwoehr training area, and will involve about 1,600 more Ukrainian troops. The completion of the first class coincided with a visit to the base by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, giving him his first chance to see Ukrainian soldiers training there.

The first group of Ukrainian forces arrived at the base on Jan. 15 and was put through an intense course that prepared them to take Bradley fighting vehicles and M109 Paladins into battle. The Bradleys and Paladins are two of the many armored vehicles and tanks that the U.S. and allies have pledged to the Ukrainians to help them punch through entrenched Russian troop lines. The Paladin is a self-propelled howitzer that runs on tracks rather than wheels.

Ryder said another battalion of Ukrainian troops began training on the Bradley fighting vehicle two weeks ago, and a field artillery battalion started instruction on the Paladin. Those two units total about 710 troops. Another field artillery unit and a Stryker battalion will start training next week, involving about 890 troops. That will be the first Ukrainian battalion to get training on the Stryker, an armored personnel carrier.

[Unagi]

M109 Paladin

/Thunderous Smite ~15 miles

[Defiant]

Over the past year, as Western governments have ramped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Moscow, U.S. and European security services have been waging a parallel if less visible campaign to cripple Russian spy networks. The German case, which also involved the arrest of a senior official in the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence service, followed roll-ups of suspected Russian operatives in the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Poland and Slovenia.


The moves amount to precision strikes against Russian agents still in Europe after the mass expulsion of more than 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers from Moscow’s embassies across the continent last year.

U.S. and European security officials caution that Russia retains significant capabilities but said that its spy agencies have sustained greater damage over the past year than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The magnitude of the campaign appears to have caught Russia off-guard, officials said, blunting its ability to carry out influence operations in Europe, stay in contact with informants or provide insights to the Kremlin on key issues including the extent to which Western leaders are prepared to continue stepping up arms deliveries to Ukraine.

If so, the fallout may add to the list of consequences that Russian President Vladimir Putin — a former KGB officer in East Germany — failed to anticipate when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-arrests/

[Kraken]

(WaPo) Why Biden's trip to Kyiv matters

Biden is far from the first Western leader to call on Zelensky, but the occupant of the White House carries a different weight, argued Eliot Cohen, a former George W. Bush administration official and professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “While the president clearly intended to bolster the confidence of Ukraine, and the commitment of ambivalent Europeans and neo-isolationist Americans, his real audiences lay elsewhere, as his remarks about Western strength indicated,” he wrote.

“Russia has cycled through a series of theories of victory in Ukraine — that Kyiv’s leaders would flee, that Ukraine’s population would not fight, that its army would be crumpled up by a sudden blitz or by grinding assaults,” Cohen went on. “It has been reduced to one last hope: that Vladimir Putin’s will is stronger than Joe Biden’s. And Biden just said, by deed as well as word, ‘Oh no it’s not.’” He added that Biden’s appearance was a “gut punch” to Putin.
...
The years before the Russian invasion saw much hand-wringing over the need for European “strategic autonomy” as the United States turns either more inward or toward Asia or both. The Munich Security Conference in 2020 agonized over an age of “Westlessness,” a neologism that captured a sense of uncertainty and lack of coherence of what the West represented or stood for.

Then Putin made his move on Feb. 24, and the United States responded in careful but emphatic fashion: It surged support to Ukraine while coordinating and driving the transatlantic response. European ambassadors in Washington routinely sing Biden’s praises on this front, suggesting that the scale and efficacy of the Western effort to help Ukraine would have been hard to replicate without such a dyed-in-the-wool Atlanticist leading the way.

[Defiant]

[malchior]

And naturally the Republican party reminds us that it is populated with pro-evil Russophiles and traitors. Biden did something unquestionably brave and righteous and they lost their minds about <insert made up issue>. Or real issues which could credibly be pinned on the Republicans like the Ohio train derailment. Biden stuck his thumb in Putin's eye and the Republicans reminded Putin that our country is a bipolar basket case and he should continue to meddle in our elections.

Just picked a video off the pile to show how stupid even the supposed "moderate" Republicans are.

[LordMortis]

Wait, GOP are the party of deregulation and let's not forget things like prepared statements from the President like Covfeefee and most especially some of the usual suspects on the lesser 4th of July holiday...

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-sho ... sna1119676

Or other emissaries during the Trump admin sent to advocate for Putin's spies...

https://abcnews.go.com/International/se ... d=57057225

[malchior]

Breaking news that gives up an indication that Biden's trip has become a huge domestic issue for Putin. Putin betrays how weak his position is.

It'll be interesting to see who has a freak out *here* about Ukraine.

Russia suspends adherence to New START nuclear reduction treaty. Edit: I should rephrase that perhaps. There was widespread belief they were lying about their compliance anyway and perhaps this was as good a excuse as any to formalize their resistance to compliance inspections.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that Moscow was suspending its participation in the New START treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States — sharply upping the ante amid tensions with Washington over the fighting in Ukraine.

Speaking in his state-of-the-nation address, Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, a move that would end a global ban on nuclear weapons tests in place since Cold War times.

Explaining his decision to suspend Russia’s obligations under New START, Putin accused the U.S. and its NATO allies of openly declaring the goal of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

“They want to inflict a ‘strategic defeat’ on us and try to get to our nuclear facilities at the same time,” he said.

Putin argued that while the U.S. has pushed for the resumption of inspections of Russian nuclear facilities under the treaty, NATO allies had helped Ukraine mount drone attacks on Russian air bases hosting nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

[Defiant]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

[Isgrimnur]

That's Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia (est. 2020) Dmitry Medvedev.

[Max Peck]

"As far as possible" is the key phrase in that statement.

[GreenGoo]

The way to win the war in Ukraine is to start (potentially) multiple wars on other fronts? Do I understand this correctly?

Is that confidence based on the resounding success in Ukraine?

[Blackhawk]

With A NATO member, nonetheless.

[$iljanus]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

Okay, but if that happens I think the Russian army will pretty much cease to exist as a viable military force since that whole “attack on one member of NATO” thing would go into effect along with the use of all conventional weapons at NATO’s disposal.

They know that of course but Russian politicians sure like to talk a lot of shit and it’s probably more for domestic consumption. I don’t think Poland is intimidated by these sorts of threats and if anything they’ll be more eager for some nice cutting edge Western weaponry.

[Carpet_pissr]

They know that of course but Russian politicians sure like to talk a lot of shit and it’s probably more for domestic consumption.

100% this IMO.

But even if you take that comment at face value, it's from the same think tank that thought invading Ukraine would be done in X days or whatever, so yeah, go right ahead. See how that works out for ya. Things are going so well and to plan in Ukraine, that you should TOTES open up another front with a NATO member.

Have we just been absurdly overestimating Russia for all these years as a more serious rival than we thought? Or maybe they have just degraded that much, as a threat over the past decade or so, due to corruption, etc.

[LordMortis]

Have we just been absurdly overestimating Russia for all these years as a more serious rival than we thought? Or maybe they have just degraded that much, as a threat over the past decade or so, due to corruption, etc.

Nukes. I don't think we ever feared their forces or economic might in my lifetime. What did we see? We had Rocky 4, Red Dawn, and Ivan Koloff. None of which were actually Russian. We did use fear of the spread of communism to our overlords advantage. But in my lifetime that bogeyman has changed to socialism. It went from paranoia of communist Russia to general collectivism then to specially socialist Europe.

But Nukes. They're real AFAIK.

[El Guapo]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

Okay, but if that happens I think the Russian army will pretty much cease to exist as a viable military force since that whole “attack on one member of NATO” thing would go into effect along with the use of all conventional weapons at NATO’s disposal.

They know that of course but Russian politicians sure like to talk a lot of shit and it’s probably more for domestic consumption. I don’t think Poland is intimidated by these sorts of threats and if anything they’ll be more eager for some nice cutting edge Western weaponry.

I doubt that Poland is worried about a formal invasion from Russia at this point - that would be pretty crazy. What Poland (and other Eastern European states bordering Russia) are probably worried about is: (1) Russia sending in its "little green men" (military forces not formally associated with Russia) to stir up armed revolt and create frozen secessionist states in the east (what Russia has done in Georgia / Azerbaijan / Ukraine 2014-2022); (2) Russian interference in its internal politics (a la what's going on in Moldova); (3) Trump getting elected in 2024 leading to the formal or informal crack up of NATO.

Plus any of the above (or the threats thereof) gives Russia leverage to bully concessions out of Poland.

[Alefroth]

Will Hungary block the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 023-02-25/

BUDAPEST, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff signalled on Saturday a possible further delay in Budapest's ratification of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, saying a vote may take place only in the second half of March.

[Default]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

Okay, but if that happens I think the Russian army will pretty much cease to exist as a viable military force since that whole “attack on one member of NATO” thing would go into effect along with the use of all conventional weapons at NATO’s disposal.

They know that of course but Russian politicians sure like to talk a lot of shit and it’s probably more for domestic consumption. I don’t think Poland is intimidated by these sorts of threats and if anything they’ll be more eager for some nice cutting edge Western weaponry.

I doubt that Poland is worried about a formal invasion from Russia at this point - that would be pretty crazy. What Poland (and other Eastern European states bordering Russia) are probably worried about is: (1) Russia sending in its "little green men" (military forces not formally associated with Russia) to stir up armed revolt and create frozen secessionist states in the east (what Russia has done in Georgia / Azerbaijan / Ukraine 2014-2022); (2) Russian interference in its internal politics (a la what's going on in Moldova); (3) Trump getting elected in 2024 leading to the formal or informal crack up of NATO.

Plus any of the above (or the threats thereof) gives Russia leverage to bully concessions out of Poland.

Um, you do NOT want to fuck with the Poles. The fact that they keep leaving tanks on the border with Ukraine with the keys in the ignition while they "go get a coffee" should be statement enough. They are irritated by NATOs lack of action.

"Little green men" would be a welcomed reason for the Polish military to go kick Russian ass.

[Alefroth]

Um, you do NOT want to fuck with the Poles. The fact that they keep leaving tanks on the border with Ukraine with the keys in the ignition while they "go get a coffee" should be statement enough.

Is that really happening? Why do they need to be surreptitious about it?

[Holman]

Have we just been absurdly overestimating Russia for all these years as a more serious rival than we thought? Or maybe they have just degraded that much, as a threat over the past decade or so, due to corruption, etc.

Nukes. I don't think we ever feared their forces or economic might in my lifetime. What did we see? We had Rocky 4, Red Dawn, and Ivan Koloff. None of which were actually Russian. We did use fear of the spread of communism to our overlords advantage. But in my lifetime that bogeyman has changed to socialism. It went from paranoia of communist Russia to general collectivism then to specially socialist Europe.

But Nukes. They're real AFAIK.

My understanding is that there was a period from the very early 1970s to the early 1980s when Russia's conventional military would have had a chance at getting to the Rhine and conquering West Germany, Denmark, and maybe even Benelux. Vietnam took a lot out of the Western alliance.

The big variable was when NATO would resort to tactical nukes and whether strategic nukes would come into play.

This balance shifted back to us with the 1980s military buildup (which was actually planned and begun by Carter, not Reagan).

[malchior]

Have we just been absurdly overestimating Russia for all these years as a more serious rival than we thought? Or maybe they have just degraded that much, as a threat over the past decade or so, due to corruption, etc.

Nukes. I don't think we ever feared their forces or economic might in my lifetime. What did we see? We had Rocky 4, Red Dawn, and Ivan Koloff. None of which were actually Russian. We did use fear of the spread of communism to our overlords advantage. But in my lifetime that bogeyman has changed to socialism. It went from paranoia of communist Russia to general collectivism then to specially socialist Europe.

But Nukes. They're real AFAIK.

My understanding is that there was a period from the very early 1970s to the early 1980s when Russia's conventional military would have had a chance at getting to the Rhine and conquering West Germany, Denmark, and maybe even Benelux. Vietnam took a lot out of the Western alliance.

Vietnam, the energy crisis, and a very different economic prioritization. The Soviet army had 200+ divisions when the Berlin wall fell versus about half that number in NATO. The below figure is from a now public NATO force estimate from the mid-80s.



Beyond the availability of men/materials, the Soviets major supply lines were much shorter. Estimated at max 750km versus 6000 km from the United States. This required the US to have a huge navy to maintain freedom of navigation. The Soviets had almost no navy in comparison. They bet big on ability to rush and conquer Europe quickly.

The big variable was when NATO would resort to tactical nukes and whether strategic nukes would come into play.

This was the main deterrent considering the asymmetries involved. This situation created a lot of political pressure which led to SALT/START/etc. arms treaties to create the perception of cooperation around the reduction of nuclear armaments while not really doing anything meaningful to reduce existential risks that persist even now.

This balance shifted back to us with the 1980s military buildup (which was actually planned and begun by Carter, not Reagan).

Ironically it was potentially unnecessary because the Soviet program of a prioritized military production economy churning out tanks, artillery, guns, and missiles led to a hallowed out public economy which created many of the issues that may have contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[Isgrimnur]

hallowed out

*hollowed

[Jaymann]

hallowed out

*hollowed

Unless it was blessed by the Russian Orthodox Church.

[waitingtoconnect]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

Of course it’s funny he says this as Russia already pushed back Poland’s borders (and gave the land to Ukraine and Belarus) at the end of world war 2…

[LordMortis]

This balance shifted back to us with the 1980s military buildup (which was actually planned and begun by Carter, not Reagan).

And that would explain why it's been that way in way my lifetime. I was 10 when Carter left office. I was maybe 11 when Firefox came out. I think I was 19 when the Berlin wall fell.

[Unagi]

I feel like we (the US) made the strongest propaganda material supporting the strength of Russia’s military.

The Potemkin Military.

[Daveman]

I'm sure the problems that are now evident in their conventional forces carry over to their nuclear arsenal as well, and would result in weapons that fail to launch, detonate or miss their target by a large margin.

But we're still talking about nuclear weapons... even if a large percentage fail its still bad news.

[Default]

Um, you do NOT want to fuck with the Poles. The fact that they keep leaving tanks on the border with Ukraine with the keys in the ignition while they "go get a coffee" should be statement enough.

Is that really happening? Why do they need to be surreptitious about it?

Because the West is so busy worrying about escalating the war. The West won't ship fighter planes to Ukraine, so Poland labels their fully functional fighter planes as airplane parts and transfers them to Ukraine that way. Poland knows what a threat the Russians are, and so they're not playing the same games that we are. Add to that, Poland is a NATO country with NATO doctrine armed forces and they could probably kick Russia's army without even breaking a sweat. They might even stop for pierogies afterwards.

[Max Peck]

They might even stop for pierogies afterwards.

One pierog. Many pierogi.

[malchior]

I'm sure the problems that are now evident in their conventional forces carry over to their nuclear arsenal as well, and would result in weapons that fail to launch, detonate or miss their target by a large margin.

Experts I've read suggest this isn't true. They aren't universally incapable. For example, the Soyuz program is an example that their engineering capabilities are still solid.

[Max Peck]

I'm sure the problems that are now evident in their conventional forces carry over to their nuclear arsenal as well, and would result in weapons that fail to launch, detonate or miss their target by a large margin.

Experts I've read suggest this isn't true. They aren't universally incapable. For example, the Soyuz program is an example that their engineering capabilities are still solid.

Except for the recent tendency for cooling system leakage, maybe.

[Default]

I highly recommend Perun's YouTube channel for insight.

[Alefroth]

Um, you do NOT want to fuck with the Poles. The fact that they keep leaving tanks on the border with Ukraine with the keys in the ignition while they "go get a coffee" should be statement enough.

Is that really happening? Why do they need to be surreptitious about it?

Because the West is so busy worrying about escalating the war. The West won't ship fighter planes to Ukraine, so Poland labels their fully functional fighter planes as airplane parts and transfers them to Ukraine that way. Poland knows what a threat the Russians are, and so they're not playing the same games that we are. Add to that, Poland is a NATO country with NATO doctrine armed forces and they could probably kick Russia's army without even breaking a sweat. They might even stop for pierogies afterwards.

In a supreme coincidence, I'm eating pierogi and sauerkraut right now.

Again, are they actually doing this? I can't find anything that says they have. They haven't been coy about being willing to send tanks and jets, so I'm just wondering what this charade would be for. To Russia, a Polish tank on the battlefield is a Polish tank. I don't think they care about the distinction between Ukraine just 'finding' one or Poland giving them one.

edit: So maybe what you're saying is that NATO is target of the ruse, not Russia.

[Max Peck]

I haven't seen anything to suggest that such a "ruse" has actually happened. I thought it was just creative license describing how Poland has been providing tanks to Ukraine whether the rest of NATO was on board or not. So far as I know, both Poland and Ukraine have been upfront about the fact that Poland has been providing tanks since quite early in the war. I've seen reports going back as early as April 2022 that Poland had transferred 240+ T-72s to Ukraine.