Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:50 pm
Deaths are forecast to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival.
That's actually great news! Lunar Year 2023 will usher in a decline in deaths.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by WYBaugh »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:16 pm Oy. I'm afraid to ask if you're able to get access to Paxlovid based on where you live...
Just took my first dose.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Glad to hear it!
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:04 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:50 pm
Deaths are forecast to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival.
That's actually great news! Lunar Year 2023 will usher in a decline in deaths.
I guess we'll see. And then we'll see again in the third week of February the result of whatever is happening now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Pyperkub »

Yup - definitely wear your N95 while flying!
Although China has largely abandoned COVID-19 case reporting, evidence of its massive wave of infection readily shows up in airports outside its borders.

On a December 26 flight from the southeastern city of Wenzhou, China, to Milan, Italy, 42 percent of the 149 passengers on board tested positive for COVID-19 upon arrival, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Eurosurveillance.

The Italian researchers behind the study also looked at test-positivity rates of three other flights from eastern cities in China to Italy, two to Milan and two to Rome, all at the end of December. Collectively, 23 percent of the passengers from the four flights (126 of 556 passengers) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. The other three flights had positivity rates of 19 percent, 11 percent, and 14 percent.

The passengers were tested either with rapid-antigen tests or PCR tests. Positive antigen tests were confirmed with PCR tests. The testing most likely captured people with mild or asymptomatic cases, as well as those who had recently recovered. PCR tests can remain positive for weeks following an infection.

Similar to the Italian data, The Washington Post reported about a week ago that it had seen data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency indicating that 23 percent of short-term visitors from China to Korea (314 out of 1,352 tested at the airport) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 2 and 6.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:17 amIt's an extension of the from/with COVID death arguments that popped up last year and I'm kinda surprised it's coming back again. Although considering our focus now on hospitalizations and deaths due to the complete lack of testing, I guess if the goal is to chip away at data, it makes sense. All that is left now is to maybe go after wastewater surveillance?

Anyway, minimizers gonna minimize.
Late to the party but caught up and saw this misinformation storyline began with another Leana Wen article. When I read it I was surprised by how the Washington Post published this piece which is premised on her discussion with *2* people.
Two infectious-disease experts I spoke with believe that the number of deaths attributed to covid is far greater than the actual number of people dying from covid. Robin Dretler, an attending physician at Emory Decatur Hospital and the former president of Georgia’s chapter of Infectious Diseases Society of America, estimates that at his hospital, 90 percent of patients diagnosed with covid are actually in the hospital for some other illness.

“Since every hospitalized patient gets tested for covid, many are incidentally positive,” he said. A gunshot victim or someone who had a heart attack, for example, could test positive for the virus, but the infection has no bearing on why they sought medical care.
Wut? This was literally the far-right wingnuts' argument last year (as partially alluded). Published in the Washington Post and then run on blast by the rest of the media. The shame is there is probably something along the lines of a real argument about public health data issues. Unfortunately the way it is delivered pretty much gives bolstered the credibility of radical centrist/far-right minimizers and anti-vax folks.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, Wen is now apparently aligned with RFK Jr. Musk, Dr. Drew and so many other anti-vax / COVID minimizers now. And Information coming from what should be trusted/respected authorities (CDC, CDC Director, Dr. Jha)? Nothing. Not a single word.

There are public health people speaking out, but no one with a megaphone as big as RFK Jr. or Musk - not even close.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

I'm only half way through this, but thought it was a good discussion.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Watching the video and... Tinnitus can be a vaccine side effect? I've been waking up with tinnitus (I've had problems for years but never really bad and never waking up in the night with it overwhelming me) for about six months now and I have been fearing it's my blood pressure and I'm going to have a heart attack in my sleep in presently. Now I'm stuck wondering if it's just somehow exacerbated by the vaccine.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:04 pm I'm only half way through this, but thought it was a good discussion.

Seconded.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Grifman »

Nothing to see hear:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

I swear smoove and Issy were just making the appeal that this wasn't the case, that deaths are invisible because they are a qaulity of the sick and elderly.

Of course, Hickey confirms my bias, so he must be preaching gospel...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

No, we were saying that elders are still #1, and to clarify your comment earlier, broadly public health labels anyone 65 or older as "elder". Make your peace with it now. :wink:

Here's the SITREP from CIDRAP:
Most US COVID-19 markers declined last week, but health officials are closely watching the continued steady rise of the Omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant, which is already dominant in much of the East and rising in all regions of the country.

...

The CDC said in its weekly overview that the 7-day average for new daily cases is 47,459, down nearly 24% compared to a week ago. For the week ending Jan 16, the virus was hospitalizing just over 5,000 new patients each day, down 16.4% from the previous week. However, the CDC's new respiratory virus hospitalization tracker, called RESP-NET, suggests that COVID-19 hospitalizations are likely increasing as of Dec 31 among adults ages 65 and older.

The 7-day average of new fatalities suggests that 565 people are dying every day from their infections, down 6.1% from the week before. Other tracking metrics such as test positivity, wastewater sampling, and community levels also show declines.
So it's "good" news, I guess - certainly better than post Xmas 2021. Apparently we're going to do this the hard way and push society forward on piles of dead people and the backs of magnitudes more that have chronic illness.

Anecdotally, the numbers in my state do line up with what CIDRAP is reporting overall - at least in terms of hospitalizations and ICU use - trending down. I've given up looking at the daily reported cases now; it's meaningless.

I guess we'll just wait and see what's next because there's no other choice, 3+ years on.

I'll have to see if I can find it, but over the last few days I'd seen some report on how adults still weren't clear that they were eligible for a bivalent booster and that they should be getting one. Complete and total failure on messaging - nationally and locally.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gbasden »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:15 pm

I'll have to see if I can find it, but over the last few days I'd seen some report on how adults still weren't clear that they were eligible for a bivalent booster and that they should be getting one. Complete and total failure on messaging - nationally and locally.
It is, but it may also be an excuse for people who can't be bothered. I mean, maybe it's because I live in a communist utopia, but I got a number of messages from both the department of public health and my doctor to come get one.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

We've reached the point where even on the old community transmission map we're no longer high nor substantial but rather 'moderate.'

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Will need to read more about this study:
COVID-19 is associated with higher risks of cardiovascular disease and death in the short- and long-term, according to a study in nearly 160,000 participants published today in Cardiovascular Research, a journal of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).1 Compared to uninfected individuals, the likelihood of COVID-19 patients dying was up to 81 times higher in the first three weeks of infection and remained five times higher up to 18 months later.

“COVID-19 patients were more likely to develop numerous cardiovascular conditions compared to uninfected participants, which may have contributed to their higher risks of death,” said study author Professor Ian C.K. Wong of the University of Hong Kong, China. “The findings indicate that patients with COVID-19 should be monitored for at least a year after recovering from the acute illness to diagnose cardiovascular complications of the infection, which form part of long COVID.”
Of note:
This study compared the occurrence of cardiovascular conditions and death in infected versus uninfected individuals recruited before December 2020, when no vaccines were available in the UK.

...

Professor Wong said: “This study was conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, and future research should evaluate subsequent outbreaks. Previous research has indicated that COVID-19 vaccination may prevent complications, and further studies are needed to investigate its effectiveness in reducing the risks of cardiovascular disease and death after COVID-19 infection in patients with COVID-19 vaccination compared to those without vaccination.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

So I spotted this interesting study. It directly compares unvaccinated people who got covid for the first time with similar people (age, gender, comorbidities, etc) who got vaccinated (but hadn't been infected previously), and looked 6-12 months out from when they got covid or got vaccinated.

Turns out, the "natural immunity" from getting infected did make them less likely to get another infection in the six months following compared to the likelihood of vaccinated people to get their first infection in that time.

Meanwhile, people who were vaccinated were less likely to visit an ER, be hospitalized or die in the following six months than that person with "natural immunity". And it also holds true for different age groups (although it's most prominent in older people).

https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/f ... 022.307112
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Defiant wrote: Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:02 pm Turns out, the "natural immunity" from getting infected did make them less likely to get another infection in the six months following compared to the likelihood of vaccinated people to get their first infection in that time.

Meanwhile, people who were vaccinated were less likely to visit an ER, be hospitalized or die in the following six months than that person with "natural immunity". And it also holds true for different age groups (although it's most prominent in older people).
Vaccinations in a nutshell. It's not surprising to learn that for SARS-CoV-2 the immune response to a "wild" exposure is stronger - that's true for many other vaccine preventable diseases. Instead, it's always the risk associated with getting sick. Overwhelmingly, most people are fine (for vaccine preventable diseases), but a not insignificant number of people will have chronic health problems and some (depending on the disease) will die.

I've repeatedly mentioned that I think we have a cohort of people that have completely forgotten and/or are completely ignorant about the burden communicable diseases put on our society prior to the 1960s. They were so successful people now believe that we don't need them.

Anyway, I hadn't seen that study and it is important at least to confirm it and get data on the protective benefits, regardless.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:40 amI've repeatedly mentioned that I think we have a cohort of people that have completely forgotten and/or are completely ignorant about the burden communicable diseases put on our society prior to the 1960s. They were so successful people now believe that we don't need them.
I'm not convinced many would care even if they knew.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Not sure how well this is being broadly communicated, so I share:

Image

I don't have the data set to see if that last block (starting at age 50) is really heavily weighted toward 60+ or if the risk for 50-59 is really as high as the cohort would have you believe. I want to believe it's the latter, but I can't say for sure.

The first one (for 0-1) is heartbreaking. It also clearly shows the difficulty with communication here for risk. Public health needs to be developing specific, targeted information for pregnant women and new mothers -and- adults aged 50+ based on this data. On top of that, communicating to the other age ranges how their decisions and behaviors influence what the data is demonstrating.

Well, that's the theory, anyway - what should be happening.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Fun story, tangentially COVID-related. This week my kiddos' elementary school has been struggling. How? 60+ kids (out of 225ish) are out sick. One 4th-grade class had 9 kids in and 20 out. It seems to predominantly be some form of stomach bug, but there are sniffles and other fun stuff going around, so I'm sure it's a mix of All The Things™.

The school sent out a nice communication reminding people to keep their sick agents of doom at home, and listing example symptoms along with the timeline for return after they clear. No mention of COVID or masking whatsoever, of course. They did cancel an evening event, which I give them credit for.

Anyway, that's not the interesting part. What's neat is that I found out yesterday that the children, of their own volition and in classes across the school, whipped out hand sanitizer and urged each other to use it; a significant bunch of them is masking on their own (and some subset is distributing spare paper masks to classmates); and they're voluntarily keeping distance, choosing not to join shared events in the gym, etc.

It seems that at this point even when parents are dumb, the kids can be impressively smart.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

That is inspiring to hear.

The amount of "collective forgetting" that is being pushed right now is unreal I'm questioning my own sanity at least 2x day at this point.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Alefroth »

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Of course they are quoting Leana Wen. And they seem to be selling this with or from COVID argument. Cool. I'm super glad that apparently disinformation without accountability has essentially saturated our body politic. Utterly depressing but that is modernity.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, exactly. I'm not familiar with the person that wrote this, but as soon as I saw Wen being quoted I knew where it was all headed. I know I sound like a tinfoil hat nut job saying it, but it really feels like there's a coordinated effort to saturate media with stories trying to minimize everything and cast doubt on what was done for the last 2+ years. I guess we're all just supposed to forget about the 1+ million deaths? Or is the plan to just try and slowly revise that down lower and lower and undermine future attempts to categorize deaths in the future with the hopes no one notices?

Every day this is getting more bizarre. Every. Day.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

It's not tinfoil hat stuff anymore. We're being blatantly lied to. These stories are contradicted by peer reviewed research from around the world in favor of the voice who happens to seemingly be speaking in voice of the oligarchs. It's no mystery what's happening. What's depressing to me is it so easily works.

Edit: FWIW I was just reminded that Leana Wen was the subject of tons of stories in these same outlets about her being unfairly 'canceled' when her own peers protested her speaking at a conference late in the summer. Those folks were called out as unreasonable when they were the goddamn experts. It's insanely frustrating how expertise is buried for the preferred message.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, she was scheduled to speak at the annual American Public Health Association on (checks notes) how to deal with backlash against the public health profession during the pandemic.

As someone helping to foment said backlash, I suppose she would have been an expert speaker.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Alefroth »

9/11: Never forget
2022-2023: Never remember
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

here in King County as of Friday, 43 people have died in January of C19 - and 100 from fenty OD :shock:
“A key indication of just how bad things are at the end of 2022 and likely to get worse [in] 2023, the medical examiner’s office is now struggling with the issue of storing bodies because the fentanyl-related death toll continues to climb,” Public Health Director Dr. Faisal Khan, a medical epidemiologist, said at a health board meeting this month.

Paramedics also are straining to keep up. There now are 20 drug overdose calls every day, roughly double from a year ago. (These are predominantly non-fatal overdoses.) Just in the month of December, “King County emergency medical services responded to 156 opioid overdoses in downtown Seattle,” an all-time record, the health department reported.
Inside city limits, Seattle saw twice as many drug overdose deaths last year (541) as COVID deaths (273), health department records show.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... sed-covid/
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Unrelated, but I was reading that fentanyl is now randomly being cut with veterinary tranquilizers (xylazine ) and the upshot is that Narcan is unable to reverse an overdose; it doesn't work with the xylazine present.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

The study was just published today so it'll be interesting to see what (if any) news reports come of it:
Question Where does COVID-19 rank as an underlying cause of death for children and young people aged 0 to 19 years in the US?

Findings Among children and young people aged 0 to 19 years in the US, COVID-19 ranked eighth among all causes of deaths, fifth in disease-related causes of deaths (excluding unintentional injuries, assault, and suicide), and first in deaths caused by infectious or respiratory diseases. COVID-19 deaths constituted 2% of all causes of death in this age group.

Meaning In this study, COVID-19 posed a significant disease burden for children and young people, so pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions continue to be important to limit transmission of the virus and to mitigate severe disease.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

I live in Tennessee and TN eradicated COVID last year bro. Yup no COVID here in TN...move along.



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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

I was in a town hall type meeting where one of the leaders mentioned how things are going in the "Post-COVID world" and my brain quickly corrected that to "Post-caring about COV world"

Honestly if it weren't for OO, my view would probably be that COVID really is over based on what I am seeing and hearing from all other sources.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

coopasonic wrote: Mon Jan 30, 2023 3:17 pm I was in a town hall type meeting where one of the leaders mentioned how things are going in the "Post-COVID world" and my brain quickly corrected that to "Post-caring about COV world"

Honestly if it weren't for OO, my view would probably be that COVID really is over based on what I am seeing and hearing from all other sources.
CNBC hit the point that we are in a the post COVID world three times in my casual listening today alone. It's something both politics and business really want to push.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I am thankful every day that my local bar is large, well ventilated, and usually at 5-10% capacity when I'm there.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gbasden »

I'm taking a bit of a risk going on my yearly nerd cruise, but I'm doing so because they are requiring vaccinations, testing before boarding, and universal masking in public areas on the ship. It should be one of the safer ways to see all of my friends.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kurth »

We just booked our first cruise since the pandemic started. We're doing a 7 night cruise from LA to Mexico hitting Cabo, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan and Ensenada at the very end of March. It's spring break here, and we can't wait to get away from the rain and PNW gloom.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

As I already suspected, it's coming:
President Joe Biden informed Congress on Monday that he will end the twin national emergencies for addressing COVID-19 on May 11, as most of the world has returned closer to normalcy nearly three years after they were first declared.

The move to end the national emergency and public health emergency declarations would formally restructure the federal coronavirus response to treat the virus as an endemic threat to public health that can be managed through agencies’ normal authorities.
What can we expect?
Congress has already blunted the reach of the public health emergency that had the most direct impact on Americans, as political calls to end the declaration intensified. Lawmakers have refused for months to fulfill the Biden administration’s request for billions more dollars to extend free COVID vaccines and testing. And the $1.7 trillion spending package passed last year and signed into law by Biden put an end to a rule that barred states from kicking people off Medicaid, a move that is expected to see millions of people lose their coverage after April 1.

The costs of COVID-19 vaccines are also expected to skyrocket once the government stops buying them, with Pfizer saying it will charge as much as $130 per dose. Only 15% of Americans have received the recommended, updated booster that has been offered since last fall.

Once the emergency expires, people with private insurance will have some out-of-pocket costs for vaccines, tests and treatment, while the uninsured will have to pay for those expenses in their entirety.
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