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Too early to think about 2022?

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malchior
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Defiant »

Cawthorn didn't stand a chance. :whistle:
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by malchior »

Mastriano has a real shot at winning this despite all the people talking about how people will reject how unsuitable he is. This has potentially huge consequences for 2024.



Greg Sargent wrote a good piece about the risk. He also scolds his peers to stop being negligent.


After Mastriano prevailed by double digits on Tuesday night, news accounts noted Mastriano’s key role in trying to overturn Trump’s loss. He helped bus in Trump supporters and attended the rally on Jan. 6, 2021; as state senator he argued for the invalidation of Joe Biden’s electors; and he’s continued falsely claiming election fraud ever since.

In light of these facts, the story everywhere is, “election denier won nomination,” or in another iteration, “election conspiracist won.” But Mastriano is not just an “election denier” or an “election conspiracist.”

These phrases create the impression that Mastriano is merely delusional in some backward-looking sense. The suggestion is that he’s obsessing over already-settled matters that won’t be reopened, or that he actually believes the election was stolen and can’t let go of that myth out of personal loyalty to Trump.

The situation is worse than this. Mastriano may be delusional or given to conspiracy theorizing, but this is largely beside the point. What’s important is that Mastriano is making a statement about his forward-looking intentions as governor.

Mastriano is running on what is functionally an open vow to use the power of the governor’s office to nullify future election losses, even if they are procedurally legitimate, and even if he knows this to be the case.

This becomes unavoidable once you look closely at Mastriano’s own conduct. And his Christian nationalist sympathies underscore the point.

When Mastriano tried to help Trump in 2020, he adopted the radical argument that the Pennsylvania legislature had the “sole authority” to reappoint new electors for Trump, because Biden’s win was “compromised.”

...

As governor, Mastriano would likely handpick a secretary of state who would resist certifying a razor-thin legitimate Democratic victory. And Mastriano would likely try to certify sham electors for Trump or another GOP candidate.

The 2024 election in Pennsylvania might not be close; either the Republican or the Democrat might win easily. Alternatively, such an effort by Mastriano might fail. But let’s be clear: He’s telegraphing a willingness to attempt such a thing, and that he’d likely see it as a righteous act as well, even if there’s little actual voter fraud, and even if he knows this.

This may seem like a leap, but to experts in Christian nationalism, it makes perfect sense. Sarah Posner, a scholar of the religious right, has extensively demonstrated that Mastriano’s efforts for Trump were infused with Christian nationalist fervor, which holds that Trump was installed in the White House by God as “restorer of America’s white Christian heritage.”

Mastriano hinted at this in his victory speech Tuesday night. “God is good,” Mastriano said. “He uses people like you and me to change history.”

The idea that Mastriano’s victory shows God using him to “change history” is a textbook Christian nationalist trope, notes Posner. As she says, this worldview holds that the United States was founded as a Christian nation, and that this is being subverted by satanic and secular forces that Christian nationalists are duty-bound to resist.

...

It should be obvious that phrases like “election denialist” and “election conspiracist” don’t do justice to what we’re really seeing here. Getting it right on what’s at stake in places like Pennsylvania is truly urgent.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Holman »

malchior wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:44 am Mastriano has a real shot at winning this despite all the people talking about how people will reject how unsuitable he is. This has potentially huge consequences for 2024.

Something to remember is that Shapiro (Dem nominee for Governor) was running unopposed and that Fetterman was so far ahead in all polling as to be beyond doubt. That has an effect on turnout in a primary.

But Shapiro's whole campaign will be focused (as it should be) on saving 2024's presidential election from a Governor Mastriano.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Holman wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:08 pm
malchior wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:44 am Mastriano has a real shot at winning this despite all the people talking about how people will reject how unsuitable he is. This has potentially huge consequences for 2024.

Something to remember is that Shapiro (Dem nominee for Governor) was running unopposed and that Fetterman was so far ahead in all polling as to be beyond doubt. That has an effect on turnout in a primary.

But Shapiro's whole campaign will be focused (as it should be) on saving 2024's presidential election from a Governor Mastriano.
Does PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty? If Shapiro was unopposed, given the state of the GOP race it's not crazy to think that some democrats or democratic leaning independents might have voted in the GOP primary.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:27 pmDoes PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty?
You have to be a registered member of the party to vote in their primary. Fetterman was way ahead but still it seems that not many people are going to flip to vote that way. I think this reflects two things. The GOP primary was more 'competitive' so that drew people out but also there is a legitimate enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats reflected in a lot of polling across many elections.
Last edited by malchior on Thu May 19, 2022 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:27 pm
Holman wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:08 pm
malchior wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:44 am Mastriano has a real shot at winning this despite all the people talking about how people will reject how unsuitable he is. This has potentially huge consequences for 2024.

Something to remember is that Shapiro (Dem nominee for Governor) was running unopposed and that Fetterman was so far ahead in all polling as to be beyond doubt. That has an effect on turnout in a primary.

But Shapiro's whole campaign will be focused (as it should be) on saving 2024's presidential election from a Governor Mastriano.
Does PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty? If Shapiro was unopposed, given the state of the GOP race it's not crazy to think that some democrats or democratic leaning independents might have voted in the GOP primary.
There were a lot of races on the ballot, so the kind of person who does vote in primaries probably wouldn't want to skip their local election choices just to influence the GOP. (For example, the race I felt strongest about my choice of local State House representative.)

Mastriano was known to be a lock from the moment Trump endorsed him. The three-way Oz/McCormick/Barnette GOP primary was the most dramatic, but all three candidates were thought by Dems to be equally TrumpyMAGA. There wasn't a sane choice to support or suppress in that race.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Fwiw, the Philadelphia Inquirer did *not* endorse a Republican candidate for the first time ever, to my understanding. They were all disturbed in their own unique ways.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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<facepalm>
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Saying the quiet part out loud.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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El Guapo wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:27 pm Does PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty? If Shapiro was unopposed, given the state of the GOP race it's not crazy to think that some democrats or democratic leaning independents might have voted in the GOP primary.
Just an aside, Masshole to Masshole -- I'm thinking of taking a R ballot in the MA primary in order to vote against Diehl and for the moderate Baker-style underdog whose name nobody knows. Healy has a lock on governor so I'd like to vote against MAGA instead of anointing her.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:05 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:27 pm Does PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty? If Shapiro was unopposed, given the state of the GOP race it's not crazy to think that some democrats or democratic leaning independents might have voted in the GOP primary.
Just an aside, Masshole to Masshole -- I'm thinking of taking a R ballot in the MA primary in order to vote against Diehl and for the moderate Baker-style underdog whose name nobody knows. Healy has a lock on governor so I'd like to vote against MAGA instead of anointing her.
I think about voting for the lesser R in the primaries but I feel as though my vote only counts in the primaries with regard to which D I will be forced to vote for in the general, so the primary is my real vote, my real choice.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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LordMortis wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:34 am
Kraken wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:05 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 4:27 pm Does PA let democrats vote in GOP primaries or re-register without much difficulty? If Shapiro was unopposed, given the state of the GOP race it's not crazy to think that some democrats or democratic leaning independents might have voted in the GOP primary.
Just an aside, Masshole to Masshole -- I'm thinking of taking a R ballot in the MA primary in order to vote against Diehl and for the moderate Baker-style underdog whose name nobody knows. Healy has a lock on governor so I'd like to vote against MAGA instead of anointing her.
I think about voting for the lesser R in the primaries but I feel as though my vote only counts in the primaries with regard to which D I will be forced to vote for in the general, so the primary is my real vote, my real choice.
Disclaimer: I still vote in the Democratic primary myself (Illinois)…


But I imagine this is about a given states choices that are being given to all.
And would one be better served by directing what choices others even have available to them.


So, analogy time.

A vegetarian who’s diner would be decided by the winner of:
(Salad vs. Rice Dish) vs. (Bean Dish vs. Steak)
…may be best served by taking Steak off the table , even if they really don’t like beans or even rice all that much.

I’ve never (future presidential elections aside) felt the need was there, in my state.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by malchior »

Here in NJ - we don't have to register for a party. You vote for either GOP or DEM ballot. My GOP ballot had a few choices. Almost certainly populated with people I'd find unsupportable if not deplorable. Unfortunately, my DEM ballot is a politburo ballot with absolutely no alternative choices. It doesn't matter how I fill it out. Those people are going to be nominated and they will win. If we weren't facing the end of our democracy I'd bother. I really wish there was a 'None of the Above' option so I could register my disapproval.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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malchior wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:45 am Here in NJ - we don't have to register for a party. You vote for either GOP or DEM ballot. My GOP ballot had a few choices. Almost certainly populated with people I'd find unsupportable if not deplorable. Unfortunately, my DEM ballot is a politburo ballot with absolutely no alternative choices. It doesn't matter how I fill it out. Those people are going to be nominated and they will win. If we weren't facing the end of our democracy I'd bother. I really wish there was a 'None of the Above' option so I could register my disapproval.
That's a lot like our open primaries in MA. When Dems face challengers at all, it's usually centrist vs progressive. But the outcome is often preordained (as with Healy for governor) and many down-ballot races are uncontested. I never vote for unopposed candidates unless I actively support them, so I wind up blanking the majority of a Dem primary ballot.

Our Republican Party barely exists and is in the process of committing suicide, as the party leadership has been taken over by trumpsters. With popular Republican Charlie Baker stepping down, they are running Geoff Diehl, a MAGA nut who hasn't got a prayer of winning the general. But moderate Republicans (which still barely exist in New England) can't win primaries unless Dem-leaning voters like myself cross over and support them, as I'm considering doing.

Diehl is going to be their nominee, and he's going to lose by a landslide, so maybe it's best to stand back and let that happen.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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What's happening in FL?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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We're so boned. I feel like we need to start organizing for the fundamental structural / constitutional changes that we need but which will probably only become viable as we emerge from the coming shitstorm.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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El Guapo wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:27 pm We're so boned. I feel like we need to start organizing for the fundamental structural / constitutional changes that we need but which will probably only become viable as we emerge from the coming shitstorm.
We won't emerge from the shit storm in either of our lifetimes. Maybe during our children's.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Defiant wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 3:46 pm Cawthorn didn't stand a chance. :whistle:
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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That’s so wrong. :lol: :oops:
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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CNN
The House Committee on Ethics is launching an investigation into GOP Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina to determine whether he was involved in financial improprieties or had an improper relationship with an individual on his staff, the committee announced Monday.

The committee voted unanimously on May 11 to establish an investigative subcommittee.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Shout out to Texas on giving indicted Attorney General Paxton another shot. It really is a golden age of elite impunity. The courts can't touch the powerful and the credulous, dumb as rocks voters don't even give a shit that they are being fleeced and bamboozled.

Honorable mention to Georgia 14th District for giving MTG another shot at being the dumbest and most ignorant Congressperson. No small feat but easier now that Cawthorn is out of the picture.

I can't wait to hear the news anytime now that Mo Brooks is going to be a US Senator. As if we need more evidence tonight that this country is a garbage heap. Though to be fair this is less than certain, it'll probably be a runoff. Though it'd be great to see an ignorant racist like him get shut down.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Mailed in my California ballot today. Gavin Newsom, who survived a "Republican" recall vote is running for re-election as Governor. Sounds good to me. The senate race is a bit confusing, as appointed Democrat Alex Padilla is running for both a full term AND to complete a two-year term. I wonder what happens if he wins both races.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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I seriously don't know how people can get behind the current GOP that were not fully on board before.

For them to 'add' to their numbers under the current context is an enormous wrong. It's honestly making me change personalities. I'm starting to think I should honestly just not give a shit about anyone but myself, and this is totally against everything I've been raised to believe. I can't begin to describe how horrible I feel these days... I'm honestly starting to shed my compassion for other people, and I'm not the type of person to do that remotely lightly. And one of the main things holding back my mindset is how I understand that if my mindset were to 'fall', how can I hope that anyone even less inclined to care would ever care - ever would... I mean. shit... I think we are approaching the end of this because I honestly always thought of myself as being maybe "over the top" caring about others... and I'm starting to just not give a shit anymore... This is probably a 'meh' to most readers, but to my brain, it's kinda huge... I've gone from being hyper-concerned to being almost 'fuck-it-all'
... mainly because I just don't see anyone else actually giving a shit. It's not a "what's the point" so much as a realistic assessment of what could possibly be accomplished if no one else gives a shit. Maybe that's the same as 'what's the point', but I suppose it's more of a slowly admitted defeat.

To put this in a Memorial day context. Shit - what the hell did all these people die for? I'm just so disgusted to think of all the people and all the hopeless random situations in which they met their fate in the name of the United States of America, only to find that they defended this shitty America, with its fucked up views on what is critically important.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by LordMortis »

Unagi wrote: Mon May 30, 2022 12:16 am I seriously don't know how people can get behind the current GOP that were not fully on board before.
Because they aren't paying attention to politics and world events, only inflation. I'd love to say I'll be :shock: if it's as bad as they poll says but I've eaten crow on this before. If the GOP actually wins anything resembling the popular vote, then I think we, as a nation, are done. I can't see how that's possible, but again I don't know any more. Things are all too even where I live which hand things easily to the GOP and I think my state may be done due to gerrymandering for the foreseeable future. I keep hoping the nation is better than KKK north with a side of FREEDOM fries but my glasses aren't good enough to see that far.
It's honestly making me change personalities.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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As always, the people who dig deeper than the first headline they see are a tiny minority. And changes in numbers aren't always people changing sides. It's often people who sat out previous elections coming out to vote.

If every American had a neutral overview of the topics and candidates, and every American went out and voted, Republicans would be a micro-minority. That's why Republicans are so focused on preventing easy voting access. They couldn't win in a fair election.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Thanks to inflation in general and gas prices in particular, the midterms are sure to be a "throw the bums out" election. The Dems, being nominally in power, are the bums getting thrown out. Never mind that inflation is a global problem and the ARP, although contributory to some extent, isn't at fault. Most voters don't think that deep. It doesn't help that the face of the D Party is a deeply unpopular old man who appears weak and possibly addled.

Two things could still mitigate the damage -- the end of abortion rights, and the upcoming televised hearings on the insurrection. I don't have a lot of hope that voters will see the R's as the threat that they really are, or that they will care enough to forgive $5/gal gasoline.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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I wish more people would realize that there are only two 'in power' situations: The Rs are in power, or the Rs are preventing anyone else from being in power. We're currently in the latter state.

And I think one of the most discouraging elements about the last few years to me, and one that keeps me from having much real hope, is that anything that the Ds put into place, anything that they spend a year fighting for and finally achieve, will simply be crossed out a week after the Republicans take power back. They'll either repeal it outright, or, if it is something popular, they'll quietly pass something else that cripples it without directly addressing it. The end result is that the Republicans are the only ones in our government allowed to make decisions.

It's why the current administration/congress pisses me off so much. They were, quite possibly, our final chance to prevent Trumpist/McConnelist politics from becoming standard. Voting reform and closing the loopholes that allow the abuses of power are the only things that really matter. Anything else is just temporary, to be reversed before they even come into effect. And yet, Biden spent all of his political oomph on BBB, and we ended up with nothing.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Blackhawk wrote: Mon May 30, 2022 12:02 pm
It's why the current administration/congress pisses me off so much. They were, quite possibly, our final chance to prevent Trumpist/McConnelist politics from becoming standard. Voting reform and closing the loopholes that allow the abuses of power are the only things that really matter. Anything else is just temporary, to be reversed before they even come into effect. And yet, Biden spent all of his political oomph on BBB, and we ended up with nothing.
All of the oomph in the world won't eliminate the filibuster.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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So it's Fetterman vs. Oz.

It's hard to imagine a better example of authenticity vs. inauthenticity.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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I'm surprised Democratic participation is only down 3% from 2018, since that was a good year for Democrats.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by malchior »

What could go wrong?

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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Well, they're probably right about them being more beatable. Obviously higher risk for anyone who does wind up winning in the general, but at the same time I do wonder whether the difference between a "mainstream" Republican and a 1/6 person is significant enough to worry about that additional risk.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Kurth »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:44 am Well, they're probably right about them being more beatable. Obviously higher risk for anyone who does wind up winning in the general, but at the same time I do wonder whether the difference between a "mainstream" Republican and a 1/6 person is significant enough to worry about that additional risk.
It is. It’s not even a question that it’s a significant enough difference to worry about the additional risk. The risk if fucking huge.

This is the Democrats following tradition and doing the exact opposite thing they should be doing. In elections where there are not significant reasons to participate in the Democratic primary, where the laws allow, all Democrats should be changing party and grabbing an R primary ballot with the sole reason of keeping election-denying, insurrection-loving MAGAts OFF the ballot in the main contest.

Jesus Christ, is this stupid. :doh:
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Defiant »

It's dumb enough in normal times. It's downright idiotic in an election that likely will be a red wave.

If you want to do that, do what Republicans do - help *third party* candidates to help pull some of those conservative voters away from Republicans.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

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Kurth wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:52 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:44 am Well, they're probably right about them being more beatable. Obviously higher risk for anyone who does wind up winning in the general, but at the same time I do wonder whether the difference between a "mainstream" Republican and a 1/6 person is significant enough to worry about that additional risk.
It is. It’s not even a question that it’s a significant enough difference to worry about the additional risk. The risk if fucking huge.

This is the Democrats following tradition and doing the exact opposite thing they should be doing. In elections where there are not significant reasons to participate in the Democratic primary, where the laws allow, all Democrats should be changing party and grabbing an R primary ballot with the sole reason of keeping election-denying, insurrection-loving MAGAts OFF the ballot in the main contest.

Jesus Christ, is this stupid. :doh:
It's more that if the GOP controls the House in 2024 and if there's a push to toss out Biden electors in Congress, I have essentially zero hope that any GOP representative will vote against it, whether they are part of the nominally more extreme or less extreme part of the party. So in some ways I find the GOP officials who are better at hiding their crazy to be more dangerous.
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Re: Too early to think about 2022?

Post by Unagi »

Some very modest, good news:
COLUMBIA, S.C. — Republican Nancy Mace defeated Katie Arrington in one of South Carolina’s most hotly-contested primary congressional races Tuesday night, delivering another setback to Donald Trump’s primary endorsement record.
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