Poll Watch. Here's the site I've been monitoring

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msduncan
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Poll Watch. Here's the site I've been monitoring

Post by msduncan »

Well.... we're at crunch time my friends. I honestly wish we all lived close so we could have an election night party. We could divide the living room into Red and Blue, get the drinks pouring, and watch the state by state results roll in like a football game. I think that'd be a load of fun!

Anyway, the latest, head to head:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

and

Three way:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html


I also want to let everyone know that I have an out of town training class on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I'm leaving the evening of the 2nd.

So you won't hear from me until that weekend after the election. I just wanted to give a heads up in case the election does not go the way I want it to...and you all think I went into hiding or something. :wink:[/url]
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godhugh
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Post by godhugh »

Here's the poll site I keep track of...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Can't get any closer :).
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Crabbs
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Post by Crabbs »

godhugh wrote:Here's the poll site I keep track of...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Can't get any closer :).
Oh and since there have been ongoing denial of service attacks against Electoral-vote.com...... you can also use

http://www.electoral-vote2.com/
http://www.electoral-vote3.com/
http://www.electoral-vote4.com/
http://www.electoral-vote5.com/
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Eco-Logic
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Re: Poll Watch. Here's the site I've been monitoring

Post by Eco-Logic »

msduncan wrote:Well.... we're at crunch time my friends. I honestly wish we all lived close so we could have an election night party. We could divide the living room into Red and Blue, get the drinks pouring, and watch the state by state results roll in like a football game. I think that'd be a load of fun!

Anyway, the latest, head to head:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

and

Three way:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
It's amazing to me how much the CNN/Gallup poll has changed in 1 week.

I agree, an election party with these everyone here would be a blast.
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Crabbs
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Post by Crabbs »

I really think unless either side makes a HUGE blunder, turnout is gonna be the KEY.
Can the Democrats motivate the lazy welfare loving non voting base to turn out in better numbers than in past years?

Can the Republicans thump the Bible enough to get the Religious right to swarm the polls?

No one will know until election night, oh how much fun its gonna be :)
'The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time.'
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Crabbs
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Post by Crabbs »

So which polls due the true insiders use? I mean do they hire partisan groups to show them what they want to see or what they need to see?

Consistently some polls tilt one way or another.... e.g. Strategic Vision (R) vs Snell/Perry (D). How does it benefit one side or the other to skew polls this way? Attempting to demoralize the other side? I don't understand how allowing your biases in will not interfere with your true aim of helping your candidate.
'The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time.'
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msduncan
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Post by msduncan »

I usually watch Zogby very closely. He predicted the last election within 1 tenth of 1 percent.

Gallup is always all over the damn place.... as pointed out here -- they varied by 10 points in 2 weeks. WTF is up with that?
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RunningMn9
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Post by RunningMn9 »

Crabbs wrote:So which polls due the true insiders use? I mean do they hire partisan groups to show them what they want to see or what they need to see?
If by "true insiders" you mean the campaigns, they have their own internal polling, and both camps will allege that it is more accurate than what we get. And I would guess that the polls tell them what they need to hear, not what they want to hear. If you want to be President, it doesn't do any good to have "yes" men blowing sunshine up your ass. That's the fastest way to lose.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Poll Watch. Here's the site I've been monitoring

Post by Defiant »

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Last edited by Defiant on Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Crabbs
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Post by Crabbs »

Thanks Nade great links.

As for the Electoral-Vote map, yeah I have been following it closely, but usually dig a little deeper into each state to see with way the trends are going and not just taking the map at face value.

Another good collection is at Slate - Election Scorecard with a brief trend alanlysis and listing of the "Swing" states.
'The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time.'
- Bertrand Russell -

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