Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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Drazzil
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:56 pm Prove me wrong then. I would love for there to be some hope for you.
Because I have never espoused the ideas? Jesus dude. You threw an accusation at me, based on not a shred of evidence because I wondered how much better staying in a system that does not serve the vast majority of people, and is getting worse. There's a massive distance between saying "let an exploitative system fail" and "Shovel massive amounts of people we don't like into mass graves"
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Drazzil wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:34 pm and this plan o mine would UNDOUBTEDLY cause some sort of harm to billions of people, not millions.
Covfefe!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:03 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:34 pm and this plan o mine would UNDOUBTEDLY cause some sort of harm to billions of people, not millions.
There's a difference between throwing people into depression era circumstances temporarily and deporting them to death camps. Furthermore. Trying to smear me as espousing nazi like ideals is a shitty thing to do. I'm left to wonder if its because you have no idea how to fix things yourself, and reject mine out of hand because you're afraid I might actually be right.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Is there though? People….a lot of people….would starve to death.
Covfefe!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:08 pm Is there though? People….a lot of people….would starve to death.
A depression is way different then shoving someone's grandmother into an oven. Ways to get food, ways to work outside a system built by corporations. Further; If all you're going to do is try and tie me to Nazi ideals, I'd honestly rather we not interact.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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As long as you keep proposing violence and suffering as a solution, I’ll probably keep doing that. So that’s probably for the best. Although I do reserve the right to express disbelief whenever you call for another violent overthrow of any group that doesn’t fall into lock step with your beliefs.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Name one time when an economic collapse didn’t consolidate power among the wealthy and privileged? Not only is the “burn it all down” attitude stupid, but it’s counter productive.

The more people who opt out or to let it all burn down means the more people who aren’t participating in and demanding improvements or voting to remove the Republicans who will make things worse.

How many times do we have to point out that your attitude is part of the political problem? And bad for your mental health.

Seriously, get some help. People do not deserve to die because you feel powerless and impotent.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:16 pm Name one time when an economic collapse didn’t consolidate power among the wealthy and privileged? Not only is the “burn it all down” attitude stupid, but it’s counter productive.

The more people who opt out or to let it all burn down means the more people who aren’t participating in and demanding improvements or voting to remove the Republicans who will make things worse.

How many times do we have to point out that your attitude is part of the political problem? And bad for your mental health.

Seriously, get some help. People do not deserve to die because you feel powerless and impotent.
1929.

This argument you are making is disingenuous. Economic collapse doesn't make wealthy people wealthier unless you count concentration of wealth among fewer and fewer people. At some point the system breaks. No matter how many times you bail it out. Without a significant amount of people with money to keep the system going, it collapses. Why do you think the stock market is so high when everyone else is scraping to get by? Artificial stimulation.

And we are waaaaaay off topic btw.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Drazzil, your ideals don’t fix shit. You can’t explain how depression might make corporations go away. You can barely address the human suffering it would cause.

Talk to someone who escaped Russia or Ukraine or Haiti and you would know that anarchy leads to corruption and oppressive totalitarianism.

The US system does work for a lot of people .. and all those in Afghanistan and Central America desperate to get into America prove that what we have is better than the bullshit suffering you yearn for.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
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“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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The rich didn’t starve in 1929. If your argument comes down to a year, you have grossly oversimplified. The market is more regulated and banking is less risky. We don’t have destructive protectionist tattoos. We’re not in chronic oversupply of all goods. We’re not between major world wars.

Simply put, you’re wrong. Fair warning: How much macroeconomics, political economy and tax policy have you studied?
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I'm beginning to think that everyone here has a huge ideological blindspot that isn't going to change, ever. I'm wasting my breath. The fact is that the system we have, which is not going to change, is ALREADY indirectly killing millions, and it's getting worse, every day, no matter which way we vote, how we protest, or how we spend our money (if we have it)
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Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Another prediction: Votes are taken but the reconciliation bill doesn’t get finished until November. You can clutch your pearls all you want, but something gets passed by the Democrats eventually.

President Biden will twist arms at the end, and Manchin + Sienna become blamed/take credit. Republicans cry crocodile tears about socialism, trying to drive people to stay home or vote for crazy.

The way for Trumpism to survive is to radicalize leftists against voting because they think it doesn’t matter because it’s not anarchy. And to make it hard for ordinary people to vote. It’s the only way a minority white racist vote can keep power.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:38 pm Another prediction: Votes are taken but the reconciliation bill doesn’t get finished until November. You can clutch your pearls all you want, but something gets passed by the Democrats eventually.

President Biden will twist arms at the end, and Manchin + Sienna become blamed/take credit. Republicans cry crocodile tears about socialism, trying to drive people to stay home or vote for crazy.
You might just be right. I have it better then most for being so poor. I don't know why I'm so angry at the system. It actually serves me pretty well. I think what I really need is another week away from R&P. I get enough of seeing about the failures of the system when I take a walk outside.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Talk with someone who had to bribe their local Russian housing authority to not have a non-related fourth family moved into their apartment every quarter. And that you could be followed on those walks by an untouchable local criminal organization looking to profit off you while your walk took you past a store with nothing on the shelves.

Maybe then you’ll see how it actually works for you better than the alternatives. In her words, Americans are spoiled and have no idea about suffering.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:35 pm destructive protectionist tattoos.
Is that your new rockabilly band?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:52 pm Talk with someone who had to bribe their local Russian housing authority to not have a non-related fourth family moved into their apartment every quarter. And that you could be followed on those walks by an untouchable local criminal organization looking to profit off you while your walk took you past a store with nothing on the shelves.

Maybe then you’ll see how it actually works for you better than the alternatives. In her words, Americans are spoiled and have no idea about suffering.
I might be spoiled, but most Americans aren't. They're working three jobs to get by, or are facing homelessness or are dying of preventable diseases because idiots wont get vaccinated. Things are bad but most American's won't complain because they're conditioned to think it's their fault, and too busy keeping a roof over their head.

I just have too damn much time to think about things. Again. I think it might be best for me to take a week off, because I'm only frustrating myself, and no one is having their minds changed. Oh well.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Drazzil wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:22 pm
Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:52 pm Talk with someone who had to bribe their local Russian housing authority to not have a non-related fourth family moved into their apartment every quarter. And that you could be followed on those walks by an untouchable local criminal organization looking to profit off you while your walk took you past a store with nothing on the shelves.

Maybe then you’ll see how it actually works for you better than the alternatives. In her words, Americans are spoiled and have no idea about suffering.
I might be spoiled, but most Americans aren't. They're working three jobs to get by, or are facing homelessness or are dying of preventable diseases because idiots wont get vaccinated. Things are bad but most American's won't complain because they're conditioned to think it's their fault, and too busy keeping a roof over their head.

I just have too damn much time to think about things. Again. I think it might be best for me to take a week off, because I'm only frustrating myself, and no one is having their minds changed. Oh well.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-m ... 47068.html
Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!
American men are spoiled.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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:pop:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Victoria Raverna wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:29 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:22 pm
Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:52 pm Talk with someone who had to bribe their local Russian housing authority to not have a non-related fourth family moved into their apartment every quarter. And that you could be followed on those walks by an untouchable local criminal organization looking to profit off you while your walk took you past a store with nothing on the shelves.

Maybe then you’ll see how it actually works for you better than the alternatives. In her words, Americans are spoiled and have no idea about suffering.
I might be spoiled, but most Americans aren't. They're working three jobs to get by, or are facing homelessness or are dying of preventable diseases because idiots wont get vaccinated. Things are bad but most American's won't complain because they're conditioned to think it's their fault, and too busy keeping a roof over their head.

I just have too damn much time to think about things. Again. I think it might be best for me to take a week off, because I'm only frustrating myself, and no one is having their minds changed. Oh well.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-m ... 47068.html
Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!
American men are spoiled.
Only as much as a bottle of mayo left out overnight.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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brand new, squeeze top. :ninja:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Unagi wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:24 am brand new, squeeze top. :ninja:
I've left mayo bottles out tons. Forgot em overnight, fine in the morn. I think the vinegar keeps it safe. Anyway. I'm off for another week. I prefer to concentrate on the good in my life.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I feel like the Democratic centrists haven't really come to terms with how much leverage the progressive wings have in this. They both need each other, but if this all blows up and the Biden presidency comes crashing down, its the moderates who will get swept out of office first.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:45 pm I feel like the Democratic centrists haven't really come to terms with how much leverage the progressive wings have in this. They both need each other, but if this all blows up and the Biden presidency comes crashing down, its the moderates who will get swept out of office first.
:handgestures-fingerscrossed:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:45 pm I feel like the Democratic centrists haven't really come to terms with how much leverage the progressive wings have in this. They both need each other, but if this all blows up and the Biden presidency comes crashing down, its the moderates who will get swept out of office first.
It is like they can't see that almost everything in the proposal is very popular with the public. It's bad policy and politics to play this game. The usual Democratic party circular firing squad at its worst.

Also the noise around this demonstrates how unserious we are. The 'very serious people' are clamoring that no one wants to work and then tut tut about the reality about why people are having trouble getting back into the workforce.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Damn good recap by Greg Sargent at WaPo how people like Manchin and Sinema have warped the narrative. I snipped this but the whole piece is worth a read. He also makes a pretty decent forecast of what'll happen next week when we get to the self-imposed deadline (Sep 27) to vote on the bipartisan bill in the House. He thinks they won't have the votes and Pelosi will convince the moderates to pull the bill until reconciliation is done. In any case, it's still a high wire act.
As Democrats hurtle into the final stretch of negotiations over the multi-trillion-dollar reconciliation bill, centrists holding out against its spending levels are spinning a new narrative about how we got here.

Don’t let them get away with this rewrite. If President Biden’s agenda does implode — which seems at least possible — the centrists themselves will be the ones to blame.

This also should prompt a reconsideration of the mythology that centrists, unlike progressives, are distinguished by their steely, clear-eyed determination to make Washington “work,” and their refusal to let hard governing realities get obscured by gauzy ideological nebula clouds.

The latest standoff concerns the process by which House Democrats will pass the $1 trillion bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill that passed the Senate, and the $3.5 trillion “human” infrastructure reconciliation bill.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) has made similar threats. Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) wants a reconciliation “pause."

This is likely posturing. Centrists want to reduce the spending and taxes in the reconciliation package, and want Democrats to pass the infrastructure bill on Sept. 27 — as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has agreed to try to do. But progressives are vowing to vote down that bill, until the Senate completes a reconciliation one. So such centrist threats seem designed to increase leverage.

The centrists’ story here is that they piously want to get something done. But they are being held “hostage” by progressives in thrall to in-the-clouds ideological fantasies so radical that voting for this would be worse politically for them than imploding Biden’s entire agenda.

A review is in order.

This situation largely flows from the fact that centrists such as Manchin and Sinema insisted on pursuing a bipartisan infrastructure bill in the Senate. Progressives opposed this, believing (correctly) that it would squander valuable time, and because Democrats always could pass everything by reconciliation alone.

But progressives essentially accepted this outcome. Remember: Back in March, progressives reached a general understanding with the White House. They would swallow the need for moderates to try for Republican support on infrastructure, on the understanding that progressive priorities would pass by reconciliation later.

So progressives made accommodations at the outset. The “two track” strategy arose to ensure that the two sides would exert leverage on one another, holding the party together. But a small band of centrists threatened to oppose a procedural vote to start the reconciliation process, forcing Democratic leaders to rupture the two tracks with a planned Sept. 27 infrastructure vote.

There was never any serious rationale for that, but regardless, it is in response to that move that progressives are threatening to vote no. In so doing, progressives are just trying to maintain the original two-track strategy, which is rooted in a hardheaded appraisal of both factions’ needs.

By no means have progressives been blameless. They’re often too quick to accuse moderates of being squishy sellouts. And it’s still unclear whether progressives will accept reductions in the reconciliation bill needed to keep centrists on board. But on balance, progressives have been the true realists here.

As Jamelle Bouie writes, centrists enjoy the image of being “grown-ups," because they tend to come from swing districts and supposedly have a “sense of the possible.” But as Bouie notes, progressives have already reduced their reconciliation demands. And they have a more realistic assessment of the politics. What’s at stake is the success of the Biden agenda: The party will rise and fall with that together.

<snip>
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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She clearly intends to be the next McCain. I don't know if that course is still viable in our hyper-partisan age.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Odds of this self-destructing just went up significantly. In any case, something will still pass something but the odds it will be anywhere near as ambitious as advertised is much, much slimmer. Pelosi just essentially signaled they are surrendering to Manchin/Sinema. Saying you should be happy to get 30% instead of closer to 70%.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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More detail on the sudden shift - Manchin was playing a long game the entire time. The reason he wasn't negotiating is he didn't have to. He just had to wait for the crisis to appear.

Edit: As to the quote at the end of the snippet...fuck Joe Manchin.
Pelosi explained her thinking in a rare Monday night caucus session, saying she and President Joe Biden are continuing to push the Senate on negotiations related to the social spending package, but the House must move ahead on infrastructure this week before surface transportation funding expires Thursday.


The speaker had declared earlier this summer that the House would only pass Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill if both chambers had also agreed to the party’s broader social spending plan. The California Democrat privately told members that the thinking began to change 10 days ago when she learned that Democrats would need to scale back the initial $3.5 trillion price tag for that spending bill — a massive legislative task.

“It all changed, so our approach had to change," Pelosi told her caucus Monday, according to Democrats present.

“We had to accommodate the changes that were being necessitated.” And we cannot be ready to say, she added, “Until the Senate passed the bill, we can’t do [infrastructure].”

The California Democrat said Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer continue to push Senate moderates to agree to a topline spending target, saying spending bill action in her chamber is effectively frozen until that happens.

"We are not going to pass a bill that won’t pass the Senate. And that's why we have to come up with a number," Pelosi told Democrats. "But we're not there yet.”

But even as Pelosi attempted to rally her caucus around the new plan, the senator who would be key to any deal showed no movement.

“It would be a shame if anyone took credit for sinking an infrastructure bill this country needs," said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), adding that those warnings would not affect him. “I don’t do really good on threats," he said.
Yet more detail - for those playing at home it sounds like they added flaming hoops to the high wire act.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Not unexpected. The negotiations will go into overtime and something will be passed in November.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Zarathud wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:52 am Not unexpected. The negotiations will go into overtime and something will be passed in November.
FWIW Jayapal seemed to be expressing some level of surprise and she is in the room. I agree something will be passed but the longer this drags out the worse it is for them. Especially if people don't like what comes out the other end.

Edit: What we learned last night was that unlike Trump - Biden does not appear to have enough pull with his own caucus. He spent the weekend working the phones. He apparently didn't change the math and it is looking like he and Pelosi miscalculated on their support for 'Build Back Better'. He may have announced an agenda that simply couldn't work in this environment. Especially since Manchin could solo tank on his own but probably has at least Sinema as an off-tank absorbing hits as well. And what's changing is that Biden's sliding poll numbers may have doomed an expansive reconciliation bill. Though the main sources of opposition are coming from solid blue districts in the House so it sure looks like corporate/wealthy tax defense has won again. It seems the mood shift we are seeing convinced the realists on the progressive side to start throwing in the towel already on getting anything 'big' done. I'm looking at Ro Khanna and Jamaal Bowman here. Though they are making statements still in support of BBB at the moment.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Manchin will not budge and worse he is digging in with new nonsense 11th hour alternative plans and 1990s era economic policy ideas.

Edit: One interesting story line that is coming out is that hill reporters are starting to needle Manchin and Sinema with questions about specific policies they'd like to see cut or what their spending targets are. They get nothing. This is echoing the speculation and leaks that there is no negotiation actually happening with them. They may very well want their 'bipartisan' bill only and this is just delay to put pressure on the House to take something over nothing.
Joe Manchin released a statement on Wednesday afternoon panning his colleagues’ spending plans as “fiscal insanity.” Then he started to lay out how he wants to work on President Joe Biden’s family plan.

As all of Washington hangs on his every word, Manchin said he did want to clinch a reconciliation bill even as some progressives fear he’s trying to kill the whole thing. But rather than approach the effort as the multi-trillion-dollar social spending and climate change bill envisioned by his colleagues, Manchin said Democrats needed to start with gutting the 2017 Trump tax cuts and go from there.

“I want to do a tax overhaul. One thing you understand that all Democrats agreed on, there’s not a lot of things we all agree on, is that the 2017 tax cuts are unfair and weighted toward the high end. Let’s fix that. That’s the reconciliation,” Manchin said. “I think we can get a good bill done. I really do, if we work in good faith.”

The House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill that Manchin helped negotiate on Thursday, but Manchin’s remarks aren’t helping his bill succeed. Progressives are eager to sink the legislation after he said Wednesday that it's "not possible" to get an agreement on the larger spending package before the infrastructure vote.

“This is why we’re not voting for the bipartisan bill until we get a reconciliation bill,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told reporters. “After that statement we probably have even more people willing to vote no.”

And for Manchin the timetable is months, not days or weeks. He said he would also focus on extending the child tax credit that expires at the end of the year, a strong signal that Dec. 31 may be the true deadline for passage of a reconciliation package even as congressional leaders desperately try to force action this fall.
Drazzil
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Drazzil »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:23 am Manchin will not budge and worse he is digging in with new nonsense 11th hour alternative plans and 1990s era economic policy ideas.

Edit: One interesting story line that is coming out is that hill reporters are starting to needle Manchin and Sinema with questions about specific policies they'd like to see cut or what their spending targets are. They get nothing. This is echoing the speculation and leaks that there is no negotiation actually happening with them. They may very well want their 'bipartisan' bill only and this is just delay to put pressure on the House to take something over nothing.
Joe Manchin released a statement on Wednesday afternoon panning his colleagues’ spending plans as “fiscal insanity.” Then he started to lay out how he wants to work on President Joe Biden’s family plan.

As all of Washington hangs on his every word, Manchin said he did want to clinch a reconciliation bill even as some progressives fear he’s trying to kill the whole thing. But rather than approach the effort as the multi-trillion-dollar social spending and climate change bill envisioned by his colleagues, Manchin said Democrats needed to start with gutting the 2017 Trump tax cuts and go from there.

“I want to do a tax overhaul. One thing you understand that all Democrats agreed on, there’s not a lot of things we all agree on, is that the 2017 tax cuts are unfair and weighted toward the high end. Let’s fix that. That’s the reconciliation,” Manchin said. “I think we can get a good bill done. I really do, if we work in good faith.”

The House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill that Manchin helped negotiate on Thursday, but Manchin’s remarks aren’t helping his bill succeed. Progressives are eager to sink the legislation after he said Wednesday that it's "not possible" to get an agreement on the larger spending package before the infrastructure vote.

“This is why we’re not voting for the bipartisan bill until we get a reconciliation bill,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told reporters. “After that statement we probably have even more people willing to vote no.”

And for Manchin the timetable is months, not days or weeks. He said he would also focus on extending the child tax credit that expires at the end of the year, a strong signal that Dec. 31 may be the true deadline for passage of a reconciliation package even as congressional leaders desperately try to force action this fall.
Manchin and Sinema are scum. They are sandbagging and working with Moscow's Bitch McConell to run out the clock. Pure and simple.
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Zarathud
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Zarathud »

Expected. Nothing on the tax side will get done until November-December. This is how the budget process works when no one compromises until the very end.

My guess is that Manchin doesn't want to defend climate change spending in his state.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Kraken »

Yeah, I think showering money on coal miners will ultimately sway Manchin. I'm trying not to pay too much attention to each turn of the sausage grinder. Whatever finally passes will make everyone unhappy to some degree, because that's how compromise works.

Expanding in-home elder care is my stake. If that gets lost or trivialized, then I'll blame Biden when I lose everything to check into a nursing home.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

I think the difference here is that there is something clearly new in the dysfunction we are seeing. This is a different dynamic than past negotiations in this era. People were used to the GOP obstructing. So once the Democratic party faithful saw that they had a clear line on a path via reconciliation, they thought they had a way to finally get things done. Now they have members of their own caucus obstructing the entire agenda. Worse people in the process say they aren't negotiating. Reporters picked that up and largely have shown at the very least that might be true. It certainly isn't clear how this will turn out. What it is though is *horrible politics*. Put aside the trouble with an eventual compromise not being popular. Though it is a problem they'll eventually have to deal with.

Instead there is an entire part of the party who believes they compromised, who believes they are in a position to get some wins after years of working, and is now getting hung out to dry by similar feeling forces. This is the type of pressure that cause parties to splinter. They were on the verge of getting something done and they got a knife in the back. I predicted months ago that this would cause intense in-fighting because trust levels were breaking down. We're seeing that now and they have seemingly irrational actors like Sinema in the mix. This a potentially volatile situation. As usual I think people are very much underestimating the risk levels we are seeing.
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El Guapo
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Bemoaning the damn Senate again today. I also got an e-mail yesterday evening about the possibility of a government shutdown after tomorrow. I'm guessing the Senate will *probably* pass a clean funding extension today or tomorrow but it's not a given. Not a big problem for me personally (especially since during the last shutdown they passed a bill providing that gov't employees will be paid after any current or future shutdowns), but just f'ing frustrating that we're stuck with this idiotic unrepresentative system for the foreseeable future. I hate Manchin and especially Sinema, but it's also just f'ing dumb that our system gives them that much importance.

It's also insane that we're having this internal democratic party showdown on funding bills when we're currently on track to have a one party Republican government by the end of the decade at the latest, and then they'll be able to just change any of this that they want anyway. I also assume that if the party cracks up over the spending bills, or winds up using all of their attention and time on them, that that'll kill any chances of getting a democracy protection bill passed.

Just insane.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

So weird how this is trending on all the conservative news websites:
Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin is pushing back on a Democratic plan to push a “Medicaid-like” measure through the reconciliation bill for one simple reason: it lacks the Hyde amendment, which bars the use of federal funds for abortion.

The moderate, pro-life West Virginia Democrat said the bill is “dead on arrival” in the Senate without the Hyde amendment, telling National Review that “it has to be" included.
Between this an the news that Sinema has been scheduling fundraisers with conservative PACs, it's pretty clear we're all boned.

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Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:00 am This a potentially volatile situation. As usual I think people are very much underestimating the risk levels we are seeing.
Risk levels? For what exactly? To speed the train actively falling off the cliff from intial inertia to terminal velocity? :D WATCH OUT EVERYBODY!! We're hitting the ground 3 seconds faster, now! :P
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