California Recall

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Jaymann
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California Recall

Post by Jaymann »

Democrat Gavin Newsom is facing a recall vote in California. The only criticism I know of is he was busted at a dinner party during the lockdown, and he didn't re-open schools fast enough for some. Not often a Governor is subject to recall with a $75B budget surplus.

My concern is Repugnicans will start using recall as a cudgel to harass any office holder they don't like. They have done worse.
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Re: California Recall

Post by El Guapo »

He's facing a recall mainly because the idiotic mechanisms of the California recall procedure give the California GOP (which long ago abandoned the path of reason for madness) their main plausible way to win statewide. You need a relatively small % of signatures to start a recall election (maybe 10%)? Then, it's one vote (Part A - do you recall the governor; and Part B - if Part A passes, who should be the new governor?). There's no "part B" election, and the curent governor can't be a candidate on the "Part B" portion of the ballot.

Which means that the governor's party has to choose between running candidates against its own party's incumbent governor (helping to increase the odds that "Part A" passes) or not running candidates (which means that if Part A passes, they will lose the governorship even if most people support their party).

It's unclear whether the California GOP can win statewide in CA right now, so they're doing what they always do - try to find some way to win with a minority of the vote.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Unagi »

Is there and good idea on where this is leaning ?

I mean, I’d like to think having a low bar (number of signatures) for recall would equate to an unlikely recall, ultimately.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

Unagi wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 12:14 pm Is there and good idea on where this is leaning ?
Not too much polling is available yet I believe.
I mean, I’d like to think having a low bar (number of signatures) for recall would equate to an unlikely recall, ultimately.
For the problem El Guapo alluded to. The chances go *up*. The problem is that the recall is a 2-part. Part 1 is recall as straight Yes/No. On the same ballot you have to vote for the replacement governor. The replacement can't be the incumbent. So you have to either run 0 democrats and hope the recall fails or run a Democrat "backup" and split the vote potentially.

This is how Arnold became Governor. There were lessons learned on the Democratic side but the math of this is difficult. It's not a bad process per se but the low hurdle to initiate is the root problem. It requires 12% of the cast votes in the last election for executives. Curiously it's 20% for judges and legislators. Anyway, it's dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb with a capital dumb. It amounts to many signatures to collect but many less than the number of Republicans in the state by a decent margin.
Last edited by malchior on Tue May 11, 2021 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Defiant »

The handful of polls show the recall losing, by anywhere from 4% to 16%.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Defiant »

malchior wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 12:50 pm The chances go *up*. The problem is that the recall is a 2-part. Part 1 is recall as straight Yes/No. On the same ballot you have to vote for the replacement governor. The replacement can't be the incumbent. So you have to either run 0 democrats and hope the recall fails or run a Democrat "backup" and split the vote potentially.
Wait, if you vote yes, you can't vote for the backup? Or is the worry that if someone has to choose a Democrat replacement, they're more likely to vote for the recall?
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Re: California Recall

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 12:56 pm
malchior wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 12:50 pm The chances go *up*. The problem is that the recall is a 2-part. Part 1 is recall as straight Yes/No. On the same ballot you have to vote for the replacement governor. The replacement can't be the incumbent. So you have to either run 0 democrats and hope the recall fails or run a Democrat "backup" and split the vote potentially.
Wait, if you vote yes, you can't vote for the backup? Or is the worry that if someone has to choose a Democrat replacement, they're more likely to vote for the recall?
No, the restriction is just that the incumbent governor can't be a candidate on the 'replacement' portion of the ballot. The challenge for the incumbent party is that if you run a Democratic candidate in the election other than the governor, you will probably increase the number of people willing to vote to recall the current governor (because you will almost certainly have a nonzero number of people who aren't crazy about the current governor, like other Democrats, but don't like the Republican candidates).

Also it's difficult for alternative Democrats to campaign in that environment - you don't want them criticizing the governor even though they're basically running to oust and replace them. So they're basically stuck with a message along the lines of "the current governor is good, but on the off chance that you disagree, you should pick me because I'll do X Y and Z".

But if you don't run any other Democratic candidates, then you'll wind up with a Republican governor if the recall is successful, even if they might only be able to command 30% or what have you support in a regular election.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Unagi »

I would think the best 'team' strategy here would be for the governors team to give a "This is our replacement, and he stands with our Governor" candidate - and make that person basically go out and defend the Governor.

I mean, if the powers that be are in a position to have 'no Democrat run against the Governor', then surely they could gets someone that's a popular advocate (perhaps already elected to a position, etc.) that could represent that slot?
I'm not saying it's a no-brainer/slam-dunk, but I would think that would be the way to go, strategically.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:06 pmAlso it's difficult for alternative Democrats to campaign in that environment - you don't want them criticizing the governor even though they're basically running to oust and replace them. So they're basically stuck with a message along the lines of "the current governor is good, but on the off chance that you disagree, you should pick me because I'll do X Y and Z".
Yup - if the threshold was saner the messaging wouldn't be dramatically better but at least it'd be easier to believe that they need to run someone as a legitimate replacement.
But if you don't run any other Democratic candidates, then you'll wind up with a Republican governor if the recall is successful, even if they might only be able to command 30% or what have you support in a regular election.
Or what happened last time which was multiple Democrats and Republicans and not serious candidates ran which split up the electorate as well. You somehow have to convince only one alternative Democrat to run just in case the recall happens so that they don't split the Democratic remainder base. It's a tricky math problem because the incumbent's party loses if they fail the recall side implicitly. If the polls were bad you might even see the incumbent's party favoring the recall and telling people to vote the replacement.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Defiant »

Unagi wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:12 pm I would think the best 'team' strategy here would be for the governors team to give a "This is our replacement, and he stands with our Governor" candidate - and make that person basically go out and defend the Governor.
Yeah, someone like a Lt Governor. (Or whomever it is who replaces the governor if they resign or something).
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

That's the real answer to the idea of a recall. Most states have a recall process that just treats it like a vacancy like a resignation. The "jungle primary" on top (or to be more accurate the rest of the ballot) appears more democratic but has all sort of issues that disfavors the incumbent's party.
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Re: California Recall

Post by naednek »

Newsome isn't going anywhere.

The anti-maskers, anti-vaxers (they're the same) are unhappy because they don't understand science and goodwill are trying to get their way, but they will fail miserably.
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Re: California Recall

Post by El Guapo »

The other wildcard here is that if the recall looks likely to succeed Newsom could just resign in favor of the Lt. Governor before the vote.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Jaymann »

Latest poll looks good for Newsom, not so much for Caitlyn.

@JacobRubashkin
New Berkeley/IGS poll (April 29-May 5) of California.

Support for recalling Newsom:
Support- 36%
Oppose- 49%

Newsom approval: 52%

Recall election ballot test:
Faulconer (R)- 22%
Cox (R)- 22%
Ose (R)- 14%
Jenner (R)- 6%
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Re: California Recall

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Is there another Democrat running?
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Re: California Recall

Post by Jaymann »

El Guapo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 3:26 pm Is there another Democrat running?
I think some city council member.'

'Actually 2:

Luis Huang, candidate in the 2020 Irvine mayoral election
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato, business owner

Had to beat Izzy.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Pyperkub »

Jaymann wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:56 am My concern is Repugnicans will start using recall as a cudgel to harass any office holder they don't like. They have done worse.
Ya think? this is 100% because it has been almost 30 years now that the GOP has been able to install a Governor without it being a recall election. They have shown zero interest in becoming a party that can win statewide office in CA without it being a recall.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Isgrimnur »

Jaymann wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 3:30 pm Had to beat Izzy.
I'm on work vacation this week, so my hours of uptime are completely randomized.
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Re: California Recall

Post by LordMortis »

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:06 pm I'm on work vacation this week, so my hours of uptime are completely randomized.
What does it mean when AI says this? Is that a maintenance window code speak?
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Re: California Recall

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and beta testing
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

Newsom recall might be a photo finish - and much like last time the replacement might end up being a media personality.
The latest Emerson College/Nexstar poll of the California gubernatorial recall election finds voters remain split, with 46% in favor and 48% against the recall of Gov. Newsom. Six percent (6%) of likely voters are still undecided. Since earlier in July, when the recall was at 43% in favor and 48% against, the number of undecided voters has fallen 3%, while 3% more have reported that they are in favor of the recall.

Education appears to impact voter attitudes toward the recall as respondents without a college degree were more in favor of the recall (54% recall/39% keep) than those with a college degree (36% recall/59% keep).

Hispanics are the only racial group in favor of the recall (54% recall/41% keep), while White respondents were split (48% recall/49% keep). Majorities of Black respondents (41% recall/57% keep) and Asian respondents (30% recall/49% keep) were in favor of keeping Newsom as Governor.

Majorities of Republicans (80% recall/16% keep) and Independents (54% recall/ 34% keep) are in favor of the recall. Democrats are largely in favor of keeping Newsom, but almost a quarter plan to vote to recall the Governor (23% recall/73% keep).

Men are split (47% recall/47% keep), while women are more in favor of keeping Newsom (44% recall/51% keep).

A plurality of voters (40%) are unsure which candidate they will choose for the second ballot question, who should replace Gov. Newsom in the case of his recall. Leading the field of candidates is talk radio host Larry Elder, at 23%. Since July’s poll, Elder has gained seven percentage points. Businessman John Cox and former Olympian and television personality Caitlyn Jenner are both polling at 7%, followed by California State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley at 5%, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer at 4%, and social media influencer Kevin Paffrath at 1%. Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents reported that they plan to vote for someone else.

A plurality (44%) of Republicans and nearly a third (29%) of Independents are planning to vote for Elder. A majority of Trump voters from 2020 (55%) are supporting Elder, while 70% of Biden 2020 voters are either undecided or voting for someone else.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Jaymann »

I got my ballot today. There were about 60 candidates IF the recall happens. Two of them were Green Party, an attorney and a hairdresser. I voted for the hairdresser, at least she should be looking good in office.
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Re: California Recall

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God this is terrifying. From that polling it's pretty clear that if Newsom gets recalled then the winner will be Elder, with the support of all of 20ish percent of the state. And it's a coin flip between Newsom and Elder, in effect.

Fucking hell we have the shittiest political system.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:14 am God this is terrifying. From that polling it's pretty clear that if Newsom gets recalled then the winner will be Elder, with the support of all of 20ish percent of the state. And it's a coin flip between Newsom and Elder, in effect.

Fucking hell we have the shittiest political system.
If you thought that was bad, look at this madness from the Democratic party. Just vote 'No' and leave the second question blank. WTF? I can't figure out the upside to that strategy. If all the No's voted for a solid Democrat at least they keep the Governor's mansion. [After reading story below] Oh - they didn't run a backup solid Democrat. That sounds right. The Democrats are the NY Mets of democracy.

Bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them
With ballots starting to head to registered voters for California’s gubernatorial recall election, those wishing to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom in office will have a straightforward answer to the ballot’s first question of whether to boot the first-term Democrat: No.

Things get a bit trickier on the ballot’s second question, which asks voters — regardless of how they voted on the first question — to select a potential Newsom replacement from the field of 46 certified candidates.

The governor and his party leaders are telling supporters: leave it blank. But some political experts warn that such an approach could backfire, leaving deep-blue California with a strongly conservative leader in the governor's mansion.

Newsom has made the strategy clear this week in comments to the Los Angeles Times and Politico, and his party leaders have amplified the message across social media platforms ahead of the Sept. 14 election, which is largely being conducted by mail.

California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks said in a tweet that leaving the second question blank will save voters time, energy, self-respect and “from casting your vote for a candidate who isn’t worthy of your support — or the support of California voters.”
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Re: California Recall

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malchior wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:34 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:14 am God this is terrifying. From that polling it's pretty clear that if Newsom gets recalled then the winner will be Elder, with the support of all of 20ish percent of the state. And it's a coin flip between Newsom and Elder, in effect.

Fucking hell we have the shittiest political system.
If you thought that was bad, look at this madness from the Democratic party. Just vote 'No' and leave the second question blank. WTF? I can't figure out the upside to that strategy. If all the No's voted for a solid Democrat at least they keep the Governor's mansion. [After reading story below] Oh - they didn't run a backup solid Democrat. That sounds right. The Democrats are the NY Mets of democracy.

Bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them
With ballots starting to head to registered voters for California’s gubernatorial recall election, those wishing to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom in office will have a straightforward answer to the ballot’s first question of whether to boot the first-term Democrat: No.

Things get a bit trickier on the ballot’s second question, which asks voters — regardless of how they voted on the first question — to select a potential Newsom replacement from the field of 46 certified candidates.

The governor and his party leaders are telling supporters: leave it blank. But some political experts warn that such an approach could backfire, leaving deep-blue California with a strongly conservative leader in the governor's mansion.

Newsom has made the strategy clear this week in comments to the Los Angeles Times and Politico, and his party leaders have amplified the message across social media platforms ahead of the Sept. 14 election, which is largely being conducted by mail.

California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks said in a tweet that leaving the second question blank will save voters time, energy, self-respect and “from casting your vote for a candidate who isn’t worthy of your support — or the support of California voters.”
I get the logic of not running a mainstream Democratic alternative to some degree. The thinking is that if you have some great looking Democratic alternative, some material number of Democratic voters who aren't thrilled with Newsom will be tempted to vote yes and then for their alternative. Even if that's just 1% or 2% of the overall electorate, that could easily be enough to tip the result. If the choice is effectively "Newsom or a bunch of lunatics", then Newsom is much more likely to defeat the recall.

That's not a slam dunk choice, but I understand the logic of the approach.

What I completely cannot understand is how Democrats have had complete control of the state for some years and yet haven't rewritten the recall laws after the Gray Davis debacle.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

Sure. They got burned in 2003 by an alternative Democrat but this was clearly to protect one person versus the state. Worse Elder is running at 20%. The clear message should have been vote No but here is the alternative. Even if you lose Newsom by a point or two you almost certainly get a Democrat with the right public messaging. Instead, they might very well get a Trumpist/ultra Conservative during a pandemic. Not a smart bet at all.

As to why they haven't changed the election law, that's definitely a good question too. Especially since this is pretty much the only way they lose.
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Re: California Recall

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Larry Elder
Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, a Republican frontrunner in California's governor race, doubled down on past comments he made defending employers asking women if and when they plan to get pregnant.

Elder, who is running in the recall election to unseat Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, expressed his views on the subject in the 2002 book "Showdown: Confronting Bias, Lies, and the Special Interests that Divide America," Media Matters reported last week.
...
He also suggested women who have kids aren't "committed" to work, Media Matters reported.

When asked about the comments by the Associated Press on Wednesday, Elder stood by his past statements, responding, "government should not be intruding into the relationship between employer and employee."
Because that history is rife with success. :roll:
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Re: California Recall

Post by Jolor »

"The Government has no business in the boardrooms of Americans." If Pierre Trudeau had been an American. :wink:
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Re: California Recall

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Ballotpedia said the recall effort claimed to have turned in 2.1 million signatures. SecState said 1.72 million were verified.
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Re: California Recall

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What I don't understand is if the recall is successful, what's to keep the Democrats from immediately launching a recall against the bonehead the Repugnicans put in office, in a never ending cycle.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

Jaymann wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:21 pm What I don't understand is if the recall is successful, what's to keep the Democrats from immediately launching a recall against the bonehead the Repugnicans put in office, in a never ending cycle.
Because it'll take too long, take too much effort, and they'll probably win in only a year again anyway.
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Re: California Recall

Post by LawBeefaroni »

They should just revert to the previous Republican to hold the office. A total recall, if you will.
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Re: California Recall

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malchior wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:23 pm
Jaymann wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:21 pm What I don't understand is if the recall is successful, what's to keep the Democrats from immediately launching a recall against the bonehead the Repugnicans put in office, in a never ending cycle.
Because it'll take too long, take too much effort, and they'll probably win in only a year again anyway.
Which is fine unless Dianne Feinstein keels over in the meantime.
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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

Jaymann wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:10 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:23 pm
Jaymann wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:21 pm What I don't understand is if the recall is successful, what's to keep the Democrats from immediately launching a recall against the bonehead the Repugnicans put in office, in a never ending cycle.
Because it'll take too long, take too much effort, and they'll probably win in only a year again anyway.
Which is fine unless Dianne Feinstein keels over in the meantime.
Yep and it is the same risk as Leahy in Vermont.
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Re: California Recall

Post by Isgrimnur »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:34 pm They should just revert to the previous Republican to hold the office. A total recall, if you will.
:clap:
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Re: California Recall

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Re: California Recall

Post by malchior »

In the face of apparent crumbling support for the recall Republicans and the base are starting to fall back on the usual media is against them and Democrats are cheating themes. We will see if this is true soon enough but it appears the strongest factor in a failure to recall will be both a lack of popular support and a weak GOP party structure in California. That Elder is the GOP front runner itself is an indication this might not be a serious challenge.
With 6 million ballots already cast, Democrats believe that polarization in the electorate is leaving them with a larger share of it. But Republican voters took a different lesson from 2020, with many believing that the race was stolen from Trump. In interviews over the weekend, supporters of the recall spoke of the friends and neighbors who wanted Newsom gone, and their disbelief at polling that shows just 43 percent of voters inclined to remove him.

“After 2018, it clicked in my brain that they've been cheating us here in California for years,” said Leah Kabaker, 62, who supported the recall. In that race, Newsom had won the endorsement of most elected Democrats and labor unions, and easily dispatched former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in an all-party primary. “Newsom is a White elitist from San Francisco. Villaraigosa was the mayor of Los Angeles. Now, I didn't like him. But in a state that's 40 percent Hispanic, you're telling me that Villaraigosa got buried by Gavin Newsom?”

Newsom is in a weaker position than in 2018, when anti-Trump sentiment in California led the party to a midterm landslide. An early-summer flurry of spending, including $354 million in stimulus checks that began arriving as the ballots went out, did not move sentiments on the recall. The first anti-recall message, “California is roaring back,” did not survive the arrival of the delta variant. His closing argument, that Elder would undo vaccine mandates, has been more effective.

...

Republican voters have tuned Newsom out, and to some extent, so have Republican candidates. At a Monday rally in Thousand Oaks, in one of the parking lots of the city's major mall, Elder spent more time disputing media coverage of his campaign than he did responding to Newsom.

Over 30 minutes, Elder repeatedly said he would speak slowly, so as not to be misinterpreted by CNN. He didn't get into the specifics of Newsom's housing plans but said that he had spoken to former HUD secretary Ben Carson and would adopt a shelved Trump-era plan to relocate the homeless to “large areas where we could build low-cost housing.” He spoke more generally, noting that it had been decades since a governor's veto was successfully overridden, and there was plenty he could mobilize voters against if he vetoed it.

“The lawmakers' phones start ringing and the constituents say: ‘Are you guys smoking crack?’” Elder joked. “So, we have more power than I thought. There's also the power to declare a statewide emergency. I have a line-item veto. I'll be appointing members of these very powerful commissions. I'll be bringing back sanity to Sacramento.”
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Re: California Recall

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Re: California Recall

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Re: California Recall

Post by Daveman »

Good grief, read that story and followed the link to the "fraud reporting" website and this is how it opens:
They say that in America, there are four boxes of liberty. The soapbox, the ballot box, the jury box, and the ammo box. When we vote we exercise our rights as Californians and as Americans to make our voices heard via the ballot box, having listened to others make theirs heard through the soapbox. We trust in our elected officials to safeguard that ballot box, such that its results will truly reflect our will as Californian’s. However, when those officials, either through laziness or incompetence, allow thieves to steal amidst the dead of night and cheat our ballot box, we can no longer rely on its contents. Will we now have to fight the California jury box, in the hope that the final box — the one most akin to Pandora’s – remains closed?
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