Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

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Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Yes
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65%
No
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Not sure
9
18%
 
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El Guapo
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by El Guapo »

I guess one thing I'm trying to figure out is what the best strategy is to get Manchin on board. One route is hoping he gets frustrated enough to say fuck it, but maybe that never happens. I assume that Schumer et al are appealing to his electoral self-interest....just not sure what the best option is.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Schumer's play seem to be to run a series of votes through June that McConnell may block in toto or let some slip through tactically - but culminating in a vote on 'For the People'. The idea to probably beat Manchin over the head that his position is untenable. I just read an article that Biden is also trying to de-escalate the whole situation and this dove tails with it. So it is appeasement. It might work but it seems amazingly naïve.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Smoove_B »

At some point they (Biden, most Democrats) are going to figure out Manchin (and others in the GOP) have no interest in governance. How they handle that, I don't know but as they continue to pussy foot around and act like compromise or consensus building can actually happen, the GOP continues to run out the clock to get us 2022.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Octavious »

We all know that Mitch will do it the nanosecond he can and they will all line up. I fn hate them all.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 1:38 pm Schumer's play seem to be to run a series of votes through June that McConnell may block in toto or let some slip through tactically - but culminating in a vote on 'For the People'. The idea to probably beat Manchin over the head that his position is untenable. I just read an article that Biden is also trying to de-escalate the whole situation and this dove tails with it. So it is appeasement. It might work but it seems amazingly naïve.
There's just so much that we're guessing at in terms of what's going on with Manchin. One problem I suspect is that going big 'to the people' in terms of making a big public spectacle probably wouldn't help with Manchin.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Drazzil »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 1:41 pm At some point they (Biden, most Democrats) are going to figure out Manchin (and others in the GOP) have no interest in governance. How they handle that, I don't know but as they continue to pussy foot around and act like compromise or consensus building can actually happen, the GOP continues to run out the clock to get us 2022.
They already know. They don't care. They are all in this together it's stage managed to avoid making the very necessary changes that would upset the donors that they both share. Its politics run like WWE.
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malchior
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Did Manchin wake up from a coma?

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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Remus West »

malchior wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 3:11 pm Did Manchin wake up from a coma?

He is putting on a show. He still won't do jack shit abut it. Maybe call Mitch a very bad man. Then log on to check his bank account numbers and grin.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 3:11 pm Did Manchin wake up from a coma?
As noted earlier, he's very distressed.

Oh well. He tried. What are you gonna do?
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 3:31 pm
malchior wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 3:11 pm Did Manchin wake up from a coma?
As noted earlier, he's very distressed.

Oh well. He tried. What are you gonna do?
He posted a statement on Twitter. It is currently ratioed at 3 to 1 with people just pretty much screaming at him. the odd thing is recording the statement in the first place. It feels like sick performance art. I can't even figure out who he is trying to convince.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Holman »

I think an unacknowledged problem with the Senate is that they're all co-workers, and most co-workers form relationships where it's easy to give the benefit of the doubt. Manchin probably believes Mitch McConnell sincerely means well, and isn't that all we can ask of anyone? Can't we just politely disagree? [QAnon lunatic sets fire to Rotunda]

Plus, you *know* every Republican treats Manchin with all the respect and chummy friendliness they can muster. If they're rude to Elizabeth Warren, he thinks, well, maybe she should try harder to get along?
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Drazzil »

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 1:33 pm I guess one thing I'm trying to figure out is what the best strategy is to get Manchin on board. One route is hoping he gets frustrated enough to say fuck it, but maybe that never happens. I assume that Schumer et al are appealing to his electoral self-interest....just not sure what the best option is.
Blackmail. Threats to his job, finances, personal safety, investigations, you name it. We really need to Johnson our way outta this. Nothings off the table
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Even Cillizza is dunking on Manchin. If Chris Cillizza has figured out your bullshit game then it is staring at the sun obvious.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

And here's the toughest part for Democrats: There's no real argument -- at least no political one -- that they could use to sway Manchin. He is a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Republican state. Serving as a block on the national Democratic agenda is good politics for Manchin. And liberal groups savaging him for doing so simply helps him make the case back home that he isn't just another Washington Democrat.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by raydude »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:52 pm
And here's the toughest part for Democrats: There's no real argument -- at least no political one -- that they could use to sway Manchin. He is a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Republican state. Serving as a block on the national Democratic agenda is good politics for Manchin. And liberal groups savaging him for doing so simply helps him make the case back home that he isn't just another Washington Democrat.
He really should start thinking about his legacy. Does he want to be remembered for an event like John McCain's thumbs down on the Obamacare vote, or remembered for being spineless like Jeff Flake?
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

raydude wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:04 pmHe really should start thinking about his legacy.
Oh, I think he is. But the question is probably closer to "Do I want to be fondly remembered by my constituents, or by coastal liberals?"
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Smoove_B »

His "legacy". Hilarious. He's doing everything he can to not make waves until he can retire in 2025 (at age ~77). My money is now on him going the route of Boehner, writing a book after he's out detailing all the things he should have done or how he disagrees with the state of affairs in 2025.

The joke will be on him as one of the first things the GOP will do when Trump is re-elected is get rid of books - they're filled with bad ideas.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Most Senators are fated to be forgotten but he definitely is in the running for being recorded as a poster child for the worst of the corrupt, entitled, narcissistic fools who underestimated the risk, cared about number one instead of the health of our democracy, and generally was overmatched by the moment. All the bad stuff that happens is going to be paired with video of him downplaying the consequences. A lot of reporters have been chasing him down and he has become increasingly belligerent to them lately. They sense the gravity of the moment. It'll make for a great documentary someday and he is likely going to be remembered as a gigantic jackass.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Alefroth »

There doesn't seem to be as much talk about Sinema, and she doesn't even have the excuse of being from a deeply red state.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by El Guapo »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:21 pm There doesn't seem to be as much talk about Sinema, and she doesn't even have the excuse of being from a deeply red state.
Part of that is that Manchin's statements on the filibuster and the like have been less equivocal than Sinema's. So I strongly suspect that if the Democrats can get Manchin on board, then Sinema will follow.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Smoove_B »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:21 pm There doesn't seem to be as much talk about Sinema, and she doesn't even have the excuse of being from a deeply red state.
I keep hoping the media will uncover financials that demonstrate she's been compromised, but so far...nothing.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:21 pmThere doesn't seem to be as much talk about Sinema, and she doesn't even have the excuse of being from a deeply red state.
Also, it's important to note that Manchin and Sinema are the designated fall guys for the DNC on this issue. It actively helps their re-election chances to take a pro-filibuster stance, so they're generally happy to take the flak.

But there are not 48 other Democratic votes in the Senate for ending the filibuster (or HB 1, or anything else really) If Manchin and Sinema were replaced tomorrow by AOC clones, there would suddenly be another 2 or possibly 3 Democratic Senators with 'reservations' about ending the filibuster. The Democrats are a very wide party - they never vote in lockstep the way the GOP does.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

I've heard this argument before. I don't think it makes much sense. I think the flaw is in framing this as 'killing the filibuster'. They don't have to 'kill the filibuster' outright. And the example is Machin's predecessor. Manchin replaced Senator Byrd who over the years worked to reform the filibuster and changed it incrementally over the years. That is all a Manchin or putative replacement Democrat in this context has to do. They could have said that the insurrection was so important that we need to change the rules in a narrow way to allow the 1/6 commission to move forward or S1 or whatever. That he is 100% in opposition and is expressing unsupportable ideas about 'destroying the government' is insane and an antithetical to what his *actions* are actually doing. When Byrd lowered the filibuster threshold to 60 the government didn't implode, and everyone knows that fact. It's just a broken system full of broken, corrupt jackasses who can't get out of their own way to head off the disaster.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:23 pmI think the flaw is in framing this as 'killing the filibuster'. They don't have to 'kill the filibuster' outright.
The Democrats only have 50 votes. There's no threshold they can lower it to that will let them move legislation without Republican support that does not kill it outright.

And smart Senators are aware that the Democrats play defense in the Senate way more than they play offense.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:36 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:23 pmI think the flaw is in framing this as 'killing the filibuster'. They don't have to 'kill the filibuster' outright.
The Democrats only have 50 votes. There's no threshold they can lower it to that will let them move legislation without Republican support that does not kill it outright.
They don't need to lower the threshold. They just need to change filibuster applicability like they did for SCOTUS nominations. A simple majority is all they need to 'modify/reform' the filibuster for this purpose.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

I am just getting around to reading my backlog after a busy day but this is *totally normal*. I wonder how long it'll tak until they'll be handwaved off as 'alarmists'.


WaPo wrote:Now, in a striking intervention, more than 100 scholars of democracy have signed a new public statement of principles that seeks to make the stakes unambiguously, jarringly clear: On the line is nothing less than the future of our democracy itself.

“Our entire democracy is now at risk,” the scholars write in the statement, which I obtained before its release. “History will judge what we do at this moment.”

And these scholars underscore the crucial point: Our democracy’s long-term viability might depend on whether Democrats reform or kill the filibuster to pass sweeping voting rights protections.

“We urge members of Congress to do whatever is necessary — including suspending the filibuster — in order to pass national voting and election administration standards,” the scholars write, in a reference to the voting rights protections enshrined in the For the People Act, which passed the House and is before the Senate.

What’s striking is that the statement is signed by scholars who specialize in democratic breakdown, such as Pippa Norris, Daniel Ziblatt and Steven Levitsky. Other well-known names include Francis Fukuyama and Jacob Hacker.

“We wanted to create a strong statement from a wide range of scholars, including many who have studied democratic backsliding, to make it clear that democracy in America is genuinely under threat,” Lee Drutman, senior fellow at New America and a leading organizer of the letter, told me.

“The playbook that the Republican Party is executing at the state and national levels is very much consistent with actions taken by illiberal, anti-democratic, anti-pluralist parties in other democracies that have slipped away from free and fair elections,” Drutman continued.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:13 pm
Little Raven wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:36 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:23 pmI think the flaw is in framing this as 'killing the filibuster'. They don't have to 'kill the filibuster' outright.
The Democrats only have 50 votes. There's no threshold they can lower it to that will let them move legislation without Republican support that does not kill it outright.
They don't need to lower the threshold. They just need to change filibuster applicability like they did for SCOTUS nominations. A simple majority is all they need to 'modify/reform' the filibuster for this purpose.
Yeah, this is what's maddening with Manchin. He can loudly proclaim the majesty of the filibuster, while reforming it to exempt a couple key areas where things really need to pass (like voting protection). He gets to preserve the majesty of the Senate, while allowing things to pass in areas where he wants them to pass. But (so far at least) he's not even doing that.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:19 pmHe gets to preserve the majesty of the Senate, while allowing things to pass in areas where he wants them to pass. But (so far at least) he's not even doing that.
Well the obvious reason is he doesn't want them to pass or doesn't take the risk seriously. There are hundreds of experts imploring him to act. Either he is corrupt, malovolent, or an idiot. There is no flattering case for the guy.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Smoove_B »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:16 pm If Manchin and Sinema were replaced tomorrow by AOC clones, there would suddenly be another 2 or possibly 3 Democratic Senators with 'reservations' about ending the filibuster. The Democrats are a very wide party - they never vote in lockstep the way the GOP does.
Indeed. Shared here:
“A lot of members are happy Joe Manchin is the tip of the spear, getting shot at every day,” a Democratic aide told The Daily Beast. “Seven or eight of them stand behind him.”
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:13 pmThey don't need to lower the threshold. They just need to change filibuster applicability like they did for SCOTUS nominations. A simple majority is all they need to 'modify/reform' the filibuster for this purpose.
Uh huh. I can see it now - "The filibuster shall not apply to any legislation that the Democrats think is important, but SHALL still apply to all other legislation."

Image

I think the big disconnect here is that most liberals assume that McConnell will kill the filibuster the first chance he gets anyway, so why bother preserving it? But I think holdout Democratic Senators believe McConnell will never let the filibuster die on his watch, although he will ruthless exploit it when/if the Democrats kill it.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:55 pmI think the big disconnect here is that most liberals assume that McConnell will kill the filibuster the first chance he gets anyway, so why bother preserving it? But I think holdout Democratic Senators believe McConnell will never let the filibuster die on his watch, although he will ruthless exploit it when/if the Democrats kill it.
Well yeah. They're all in denial or in on it.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Holman »

Surely no one believes that McConnell wouldn't kill the filibuster the moment it became an obstacle?

There wouldn't even be hand-wringing about it. It would just be done. If they had to, they'd deliver soundbites about how it was necessary in order to protect the country from Far-Left Socialism, or something.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

Holman wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:40 pmSurely no one believes that McConnell wouldn't kill the filibuster the moment it became an obstacle?
Lots of people believe that. Not because they think McConnell is a great person or anything, but because they believe that 9 times out of 10, the filibuster serves his interests, and McConnell is smart enough to play the numbers.

Remember, whatever McConnell is, he is NOT a Trumper. Trumpers want to DO things. (terrible things, but things) McConnell belongs to the sect of the Republican Party that basically wants to keep things as they are. The filibuster is fantastic tool for that purpose, and one that he will gleefully wield against reactionary Republicans and Democrats alike. He will never allow it to expire on his watch.

Or at least, that's what a lot of people who have worked with McConnell for decades think.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Pyperkub »

Little Raven wrote:
Holman wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:40 pmSurely no one believes that McConnell wouldn't kill the filibuster the moment it became an obstacle?
Lots of people believe that. Not because they think McConnell is a great person or anything, but because they believe that 9 times out of 10, the filibuster serves his interests, and McConnell is smart enough to play the numbers.

Remember, whatever McConnell is, he is NOT a Trumper. Trumpers want to DO things. (terrible things, but things) McConnell belongs to the sect of the Republican Party that basically wants to keep things as they are. The filibuster is fantastic tool for that purpose, and one that he will gleefully wield against reactionary Republicans and Democrats alike. He will never allow it to expire on his watch.

Or at least, that's what a lot of people who have worked with McConnell for decades think.
McConnell wants the judges to do the GOP'S legislation from the bench. And that's already happening. Even if the dems pass, say, HR1, the idea is that it will be crippled.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by El Guapo »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:48 pm
Little Raven wrote:
Holman wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:40 pmSurely no one believes that McConnell wouldn't kill the filibuster the moment it became an obstacle?
Lots of people believe that. Not because they think McConnell is a great person or anything, but because they believe that 9 times out of 10, the filibuster serves his interests, and McConnell is smart enough to play the numbers.

Remember, whatever McConnell is, he is NOT a Trumper. Trumpers want to DO things. (terrible things, but things) McConnell belongs to the sect of the Republican Party that basically wants to keep things as they are. The filibuster is fantastic tool for that purpose, and one that he will gleefully wield against reactionary Republicans and Democrats alike. He will never allow it to expire on his watch.

Or at least, that's what a lot of people who have worked with McConnell for decades think.
McConnell wants the judges to do the GOP'S legislation from the bench. And that's already happening. Even if the dems pass, say, HR1, the idea is that it will be crippled.
Right - the filibuster as currently structured works just fine for McConnell's interests. He can do a lot of what he cares the most about (confirm judges + upper income tax cuts + deregulation) through reconciliation and other filibuster exceptions, while Democrats can't (since you can't pass new regulations as a general rule through reconciliation processes). Plus since the Senate is tilted in the GOP's favor, they're almost always going to have at least 41 Senators, and it will be easier for them to get to 60 than Democrats.

So yeah, McConnell will probably stick with the filibuster as currently written. That's a reason to repeal it (or gut it), not to stick with it.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:19 am
Pyperkub wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:48 pm
Little Raven wrote:
Holman wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:40 pmSurely no one believes that McConnell wouldn't kill the filibuster the moment it became an obstacle?
Lots of people believe that. Not because they think McConnell is a great person or anything, but because they believe that 9 times out of 10, the filibuster serves his interests, and McConnell is smart enough to play the numbers.

Remember, whatever McConnell is, he is NOT a Trumper. Trumpers want to DO things. (terrible things, but things) McConnell belongs to the sect of the Republican Party that basically wants to keep things as they are. The filibuster is fantastic tool for that purpose, and one that he will gleefully wield against reactionary Republicans and Democrats alike. He will never allow it to expire on his watch.

Or at least, that's what a lot of people who have worked with McConnell for decades think.
McConnell wants the judges to do the GOP'S legislation from the bench. And that's already happening. Even if the dems pass, say, HR1, the idea is that it will be crippled.
Right - the filibuster as currently structured works just fine for McConnell's interests. He can do a lot of what he cares the most about (confirm judges + upper income tax cuts + deregulation) through reconciliation and other filibuster exceptions, while Democrats can't (since you can't pass new regulations as a general rule through reconciliation processes). Plus since the Senate is tilted in the GOP's favor, they're almost always going to have at least 41 Senators, and it will be easier for them to get to 60 than Democrats.

So yeah, McConnell will probably stick with the filibuster as currently written. That's a reason to repeal it (or gut it), not to stick with it.
Right and that's the point. McConnell wants it for specific purposes. If a new need arises, he'd reform around it as needed. And that is essentially why we'd tell Democrats they should. It might be a race to the realpolitik bottom but it is go time now.

The sad thing is that this is all of this is window dressing mostly. If the United States can only maintain stability through this type of gimmickry then eventually it'll break under strain anyway. We're seeing a prime example of it right now.
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

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Founding Fathers: "And the stability of the system shall be maintained through the decency and moral integrity of the American people."

Me in 2021: "Oh you sweet summer child...."
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Little Raven »

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:34 amFounding Fathers: "And the stability of the system shall be maintained through the decency and moral integrity of the American people."
To be fair to the Founders, a great many of them would have said "Of COURSE this system will break down if you let EVERYONE vote. Most people are idiots."
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by Pyperkub »

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:34 am Founding Fathers: "And the stability of the system shall be maintained through the decency and moral integrity of the American people."

Me in 2021: "Oh you sweet summer child...."
What's this FF quote from? I'm not familiar with it, and (per Starship Troopers) I want to know more ;)
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Re: Should the Democrats get rid of the filibuster?

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:45 am
YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:34 amFounding Fathers: "And the stability of the system shall be maintained through the decency and moral integrity of the American people."
To be fair to the Founders, a great many of them would have said "Of COURSE this system will break down if you let EVERYONE vote. Most people are idiots."
This. They restricted the vote on purpose. The problem's inherent there in suppressing representation don't align with modern theories on electoral legitimacy. We expanded the franchise without any real controls on where that'd go.

I wonder if they'll look back at the United States and saw what is becoming apparent. When conditions were right the rich pumped the airwaves full of mind poison and built out a system that provided stable, ever expanding rents until they miscalculated and lost control of it.
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