The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
User avatar
Defiant
Posts: 21045
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Tongue in cheek

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Defiant »

Biden is giving a speech about what lies ahead saying that the focus will now be on:

1. Making it easier to vaccinate - moving from big vaccination sites to lots more local pharmacies (and into rural locations).
2. Trying to convince people who are hesitant about vaccines
3. If the vaccine gets approval for 12-15 year olds, rolling it out to them.

He also rolled out a new site where it's easy for everyone to find a close and convenient vaccine appointment, vaccines.gov

He's also setting a goal of 70% of adults having at least a first shot by July 4th.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41247
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by El Guapo »



Seeing this a bunch on my FB feed.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
The Meal
Posts: 27987
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:33 pm
Location: 2005 Stanley Cup Champion

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by The Meal »

District Rt > 1, close the schools. District Rt < 1, allow full live instruction.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
User avatar
Blackhawk
Posts: 43496
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:48 pm
Location: Southwest Indiana

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Blackhawk »

El Guapo wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:15 pm Plus obviously there's a big difference between reopening a school that has a revamped HVAC, plenty of windows and outdoor space, etc., in a community where mask usage is common, then a school where none of that is in place.
The problem is that reality seems to be the opposite. The communities that hand-wave masks and school precautions are the ones most likely to open early.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
User avatar
Jaymon
Posts: 3006
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 12:51 pm

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Jaymon »

the local school district here sends a weekly report on number of positive cases known. District has 6800 students

Date / student / staff
April 13 / 4/ 1
April 20 / 4 / 0
April 27 8 / 0
May 4 / 10 / 1

thats not a rolling total, thats new cases per week.

In addition to the known positive cases, there are a number of students in quarantine due to exposure either in or out of school.
Currently 8.6 percent of the student body is in quarantine
Bunnies like beer because its made from hops.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 1:01 pmAll about the money and what adults want. I genuinely thing NJ/NY are taking a gamble and hoping vaccinations outpace spread. But they're both still only focused on adults.
I missed this yesterday. I'll make the same observation I did last year. It's about Memorial Day. Murphy is a very rich guy and he listens to his business peers chirping in his ear. Mostly because they stuff his war coffers with gold. This is one of the principal reasons I think he is abysmal.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

Yup. I'm pretty confident it's all about Memorial Day. My local social media is already filled with people excited to get back in the bars and hang out, laughing that there's no way to enforce masks or distances at some point. It's going to be great.

In other news, an interesting data point on the police:

Meanwhile, more active-duty police officers died of COVID-19 in 2020 than all other causes combined.
Remarkable.

Cops in many cities have very low vaccinations rates:

NYC: 39%
Las Vegas: 38%
Atlanta: 36%

“I hate to sound like I don’t care, but I really don’t,” said one union rep.

Citizens, obvi, don't get to choose whether they interact w/ cops.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82087
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Isgrimnur »

ODMP.org

Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

So, just by way of (another) example, anti-vaccination groups are ramping up nationwide to try and dismantle existing laws on childhood vaccinations. They're doing so in anticipation of being told it will be a required childhood vaccination and taking advantage of the anti-vaccination sentiment that's been building in America related to COVID-19. The idea that people are actively trying to remove all childhood vaccination laws is downright frightening. I know it's cliche, but won't somebody think of the children?

Again, it's being done to target COVID-19 vaccination, but they're shotgun blasting all vaccines.


CALL TO ACTION!!

We just found out that SB 1669 (touted as the "no vaccine passport" bill) got a committee hearing scheduled for Thursday morning.

This is a BAD BILL - it aims to COMPLETELY ELIMINATE SCHOOL IMMUNIZATION REQUIREMENTS!

Please ACT NOW!
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

More of this please:
Florida's new law prohibiting businesses from asking whether employees or customers have been vaccinated against Covid-19 may take a toll on its cruise business.

The CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. said Thursday it could cause the company to suspend Florida departures and move its ships elsewhere.

....

"In Florida, your personal choice regarding vaccinations will be protected and no business or government entity will be able to deny you services based on your decision," DeSantis said.

But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it will not allow cruise lines to resume normal operations unless at least 98% of crew members and 95% of passengers have been vaccinated.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

More response to the article in the Atlantic (and others) - Wearing A Mask For Covid-19 Protection Is Scientific And Perfectly Normal:
I’d hardly say that we are in a post-pandemic world. While cases in the US pale in comparison to India (or earlier in our waves) there was a 7-day average of 46,603 cases, 40,287 hospitalizations, and 701 deaths yesterday, per the NYTimes. In the South, only a third have received even one vaccine dose; in the Northeast, that rises to 55-60%. That means large swaths of the population remain unvaccinated, putting themselves and others at risk.

...

“There are a TON of COVID pundits who are trying to add a psychology degree to their armchair epidemiology and risk communication credentials. It's not "irrational" to be cautious, particularly when the pandemic is not over. Although it's great that cases are going down in the US and immunization is going up, the 7-day average for new cases nationally is still higher than it was this time last year to the tune of 20,000 cases. And we've seen state governors of both parties reopen prematurely only to get hit with surges in cases. Making educated personal risk-benefit calculations is both scientific and highly rational, and we are not making it any easier for ourselves or our communities by shaming people who might be reluctant to take their political leaders' word for it that policies are aligning with the most current and reliable evidence.

...

So, there is nothing irrational or unscientific about people still choosing to be cautious. We all have to make our own risk calculations based on our health and that of our families. That is neither unscientific nor hysterical nor “crazy.” It is a sign of being careful and at a different point on the continuum of comfort.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by malchior »

I was looking at the NJ dashboard this morning and it struck me that the numbers weren't great despite all the vaccinations. Cases, hospitalizations, ventilator, and ICU numbers around the levels seen in early November. A big difference is they are trending down now versus up then. It's getting better but it isn't irrational to still take precautions. However, it isn't really a good faith discussion IMO from a lot of folks (not talking here).
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

I think it's important to not allow the extremists to get ahold of the conversation.

Anyone wanting to run around with a mask is well within reasonable precaution.

Anyone wanting to run around inside without a mask is foolish.

However, where there should be reasonable debate is about the activities that either can or should take place with appropriate risk mitigation measures or level of personal and public vaccination.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:55 am I was looking at the NJ dashboard this morning and it struck me that the numbers weren't great despite all the vaccinations. Cases, hospitalizations, ventilator, and ICU numbers around the levels seen in early November. A big difference is they are trending down now versus up then. It's getting better but it isn't irrational to still take precautions. However, it isn't really a good faith discussion IMO from a lot of folks (not talking here).
The data I have access to (town level reporting) has some really interesting hot-spots throughout the state in terms of positivity. Without question, things are better and trending in the right direction, but there's pockets of concerning communities throughout the entire state.

I guess we'll see how things look in another month; I suspect Memorial Day weekend is going to chart the path of the summer.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:08 pm However, where there should be reasonable debate is about the activities that either can or should take place with appropriate risk mitigation measures or level of personal and public vaccination.
I get that people want to have this debate and I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but the number of people that have (1) access to the data and (2) understand how to interpret is pretty small. So at some point the general public has to trust that scientists, researchers, data collectors, public officials, etc... are making decisions for them in a way that uses all this data and serves to protect the greater community.

That's where there's a breakdown. People don't trust that their local, county and state officials know what they're talking about or are making rules in the public's best interest. They feel they know better and/or that the government is lying.

There are communities in NJ right now that are quite concerning with their level of circulating virus. But out where I live? Very different. That doesn't mean I should base my behavior and risk-matrix on what I can see out my window; there's a ton of moving parts and as John Q Citizen, I'm seeing a very small slice.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:19 pmThe data I have access to (town level reporting) has some really interesting hot-spots throughout the state in terms of positivity. Without question, things are better and trending in the right direction, but there's pockets of concerning communities throughout the entire state.
I'm guessing Lakewood for sure. Also, all the hispanic communities - Perth Amboy, New Brunswick, etc. where there are a ton of people who I suspect don't trust the authorities.
I guess we'll see how things look in another month; I suspect Memorial Day weekend is going to chart the path of the summer.
Yup - and this weekend as well.
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63526
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Daehawk »

Oh I fully disbelieve my state leaders. They are republicans and all they do is for money and all they say is lies. We are fully reopen with no restrictions now. The plague is gone and cured ..no worries....f them. Ill do stuff I feel is safe and right.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
gilraen
Posts: 4313
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:45 pm
Location: Broomfield, CO

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by gilraen »

Just heard from one of our (hospital) clients that there's a big spike in cases in Kentucky after the Kentucky Derby. Who woulda thunk!
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:23 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:08 pm However, where there should be reasonable debate is about the activities that either can or should take place with appropriate risk mitigation measures or level of personal and public vaccination.
I get that people want to have this debate and I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but the number of people that have (1) access to the data and (2) understand how to interpret is pretty small. So at some point the general public has to trust that scientists, researchers, data collectors, public officials, etc... are making decisions for them in a way that uses all this data and serves to protect the greater community.

That's where there's a breakdown. People don't trust that their local, county and state officials know what they're talking about or are making rules in the public's best interest. They feel they know better and/or that the government is lying.

There are communities in NJ right now that are quite concerning with their level of circulating virus. But out where I live? Very different. That doesn't mean I should base my behavior and risk-matrix on what I can see out my window; there's a ton of moving parts and as John Q Citizen, I'm seeing a very small slice.
When the American Academy of Pediatrics is saying kids should be in school, I think we should listen to them. That's where the debate is.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

gilraen wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:38 pm Just heard from one of our (hospital) clients that there's a big spike in cases in Kentucky after the Kentucky Derby. Who woulda thunk!
Take anecdotal evidence with a grain of salt.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:45 pm When the American Academy of Pediatrics is saying kids should be in school, I think we should listen to them. That's where the debate is.
I don't know anyone saying kids shouldn't be in school. The issue is the adults and the communities that are (and were) letting the virus run rampant and then expecting schools to just "deal with it".

Instead of starting with the schools as the FIRST priority (what do we need to do in order to open schools?) communities nationwide (including NJ) instead wondered "what do we need to do to keep businesses open?"
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:52 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:45 pm When the American Academy of Pediatrics is saying kids should be in school, I think we should listen to them. That's where the debate is.
I don't know anyone saying kids shouldn't be in school. The issue is the adults and the communities that are (and were) letting the virus run rampant and then expecting schools to just "deal with it".

Instead of starting with the schools as the FIRST priority (what do we need to do in order to open schools?) communities nationwide (including NJ) instead wondered "what do we need to do to keep businesses open?"
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... 6#p2821326

You don't have to go back very far.

edit: This is one that's super important to me. All three of my kids have been disasters in virtual learning. We had the opportunity in December of 2020 to get them back in classroom. But because of all the mixed messaging ... and there was LOTS of mixed messaging ... we delayed and could only get 1 of the three in as they only allow semester changes at the high school. The AAP specified long ago they should be in school when appropriate safety measures were in place.

double edit: We chose fear over science and are now facing the consequences.
Last edited by noxiousdog on Fri May 07, 2021 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

Allow me to clarify, I don't know anyone in public health, infectious disease control, virology, public policy, epidemiology or the public sector saying schools shouldn't be open.

I understand fully why parents of children in school don't want them open and/or don't want to send their children to a school.

EDIT: Also, the AAP isn't the final arbiter here. They agree that kids should be in school for numerous reasons, many aligned with public health. But the AAP isn't offering their opinion as the end-all here. They are without question an important voice to consider but when COVID is raging through a community because the adults refuse to do anything the infringes on their freedoms and/or the local/county/state officials aren't using their legal authority to promote public health, the AAP doesn't win by fiat.

Back to the fear argument again? Seriously?
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:57 pm Allow me to clarify, I don't know anyone in public health, infectious disease control, virology, public policy, epidemiology or the public sector saying schools shouldn't be open.

I understand fully why parents of children in school don't want them open and/or don't want to send their children to a school.
Lawbeef put it way better than I could:
The [Atlantic fear] article bugs me because it elides over many reasons that some parents are choosing to keep their kids home, including reasons with scientific bases. When we last had to make the decision between remote and in-person learning, the news was full of scientific (or scientific-sounding, and I'm not sure it's fair to expect lay persons to be able to fully parse the science) reports that variants were increasing infection rates among children, including driving more serious illnesses among those children. Instead the article seems to want to draw a false equivalency between the science-denial of many on the right and the caution of many on the left.
It's certainly fair to point out that it could be bad journalism, but OO as a whole, and my impression of your stance was use virtual learning and only go to classroom if you absolutely have to.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:57 pm Back to the fear argument again? Seriously?
It was.

The infection rates in our district coupled with AAP (and Fauci for that matter) meant that a fact based decision would be to send them back to school.

Even with insider knowledge that contract tracing was showing that community transmission was far greater than school transmission, we decided they'd be safer at home.

I don't know how to characterize that as anything but fear.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
gbasden
Posts: 7664
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 1:57 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by gbasden »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:03 pm
It's certainly fair to point out that it could be bad journalism, but OO as a whole, and my impression of your stance was use virtual learning and only go to classroom if you absolutely have to.
I think it's highly dependent on what's happening. When California was blowing up with new cases, I didn't want my son anywhere near the school. Now that community transmission is fairly low and vaccinations are still rising, I would be fine with in person. I don't know how you can make the determination about whether to go back to school in person without looking at the greater community and how they are dealing with the pandemic. If I lived in a place with very low uptake of vaccines that scoffed at prevention I'd have a different feeling about exposing my son.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

gbasden wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:08 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:03 pm
It's certainly fair to point out that it could be bad journalism, but OO as a whole, and my impression of your stance was use virtual learning and only go to classroom if you absolutely have to.
I think it's highly dependent on what's happening. When California was blowing up with new cases, I didn't want my son anywhere near the school. Now that community transmission is fairly low and vaccinations are still rising, I would be fine with in person. I don't know how you can make the determination about whether to go back to school in person without looking at the greater community and how they are dealing with the pandemic. If I lived in a place with very low uptake of vaccines that scoffed at prevention I'd have a different feeling about exposing my son.
It is clearly a personal decision based on all kinds of factors. This goes back to we've need a nuanced set of risk guidelines for a long time.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82087
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Isgrimnur »

The media and most of the public don't do nuance.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Isgrimnur wrote:The media and most of the public don't do nuance.
Complete aside... Of all the features of American culture, I think this is the worst. I read an essay once that it goes right to our puritanical roots as a nation.

Things are either good or bad. Right or wrong. No dosage or gray area. For anything.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:03 pm It's certainly fair to point out that it could be bad journalism, but OO as a whole, and my impression of your stance was use virtual learning and only go to classroom if you absolutely have to.
To combo-comments from your other post, here's where I think you're still not able to perceive larger issues.

There are undoubtedly people that did not send kids to school over fear-related thinking. Issues that were likely tied to what was happening in their communities at any given time and what their own health status might be, along with the health status of their child(ren).

But there's another layer and that is by keeping a child home, you're reducing the overall burden on the school system to try and craft a plan to deal with increased student loads. Just as me staying home and minimizing indoor activity (like food shopping inside a store) helps to minimize the risk of community spread. Can I prove to you that me not going inside a supermarket since March of 2020 has resulted in at least one other person not getting COVID-19? Nope. In the bigger picture did my individual choices as a resident in a community make a collective difference? Absolutely - namely for the people working in the store.

My choices aren't borne out of fear but because I have options. There are absolutely people over the last year that had zero choice over children and schooling - they had to send them in. My decision to keep my daughter home helped someone else's child experience lower-risk conditions overall. It helped teachers and staff stay safer. Can I prove it 1:1? No.

That's what keeps getting lost. People (and articles) that continue to drive the narrative that individuals are making choices for themselves and only impacting themselves, completely ignoring the bigger picture.
The infection rates in our district coupled with AAP (and Fauci for that matter) meant that a fact based decision would be to send them back to school.

Even with insider knowledge that contract tracing was showing that community transmission was far greater than school transmission, we decided they'd be safer at home.
Another element that keeps getting lost - we aren't (still are not) been testing children in America at the same level of testing adults (which, as we know, was also sporadic, and slow). You cannot reasonably ask the general public to make risk-based decisions about today or a month from now when our data lag is (and was) so bad. Above and beyond gaps in the data, there's no practical way to make daily decisions about what to do. For my school district, they asked us in February to commit to a decision ~40 days in advance. I understand why they did and how they got there, but there's no way to run a risk calculation that far out. Sure, you can look at trends, but at some point, you're still extrapolating and guessing - guessing based on the insane variable that is human behavior.

Regardless, I wholly and completely reject the notion of fear-based decision making for schools. Instead, it's been a non-stop moving target that seemingly changes weekly based on any number of variables including holidays, vacations, sporting events and parental behavior. Next up we have the prom. Will cases go up? I'm not a gambler, but my guess is that they will, despite best intentions.

I get that you're very fixated on having information to make a definitive decision, but I'm telling you no one knows nearly as much as you're giving them credit for. We're all guessing (even still) - looking at shadows being cast on a wall and making a guess as to what we think is likely in the future based on old information. At some point we're going to be very wrong and then we need to go and figure out why - what did we miss? What changed? What variable didn't we account for? It's at this point the public will yell "You told us it was safe - you told us we could do [X] and people still got sick!"
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82087
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Isgrimnur »

noxiousdog wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:The media and most of the public don't do nuance.
Complete aside... Of all the features of American culture, I think this is the worst. I read an essay once that it goes right to our puritanical roots as a nation.

Things are either good or bad. Right or wrong. No dosage or gray area. For anything.
When the Italians send geologists to jail over failing to predict an earthquake, I have doubts that American exceptionalism is relevant to this, or any other, issue.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:51 pm To combo-comments from your other post, here's where I think you're still not able to perceive larger issues.
You are so risk adverse you can't possibly fathom someone understanding everything you just wrote and still coming to a different conclusion.

I completely agree with what you wrote. It's why in June, it was an absolute no brainer to send them virtual. By December we had twice as much data.... if not more.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by malchior »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:44 pm
Isgrimnur wrote:The media and most of the public don't do nuance.
Complete aside... Of all the features of American culture, I think this is the worst. I read an essay once that it goes right to our puritanical roots as a nation.

Things are either good or bad. Right or wrong. No dosage or gray area. For anything.
The book 'Fantasyland' describes it in great depth. Not only is it right or wrong but it also doesn't have to do anything with what is going on.
Isgrimnur wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:59 pm
noxiousdog wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:The media and most of the public don't do nuance.
Complete aside... Of all the features of American culture, I think this is the worst. I read an essay once that it goes right to our puritanical roots as a nation.

Things are either good or bad. Right or wrong. No dosage or gray area. For anything.
When the Italians send geologists to jail over failing to predict an earthquake, I have doubts that American exceptionalism is relevant to this, or any other, issue.
Eh, I get what you are saying but there was a lot more to that than the press here reported. IIRC the story was loosely that an official sent the seismologists to a town meeting to basically tell them a series of recent earthquakes was not a risk. They had a recording of the official telling someone that he sent them because another scientist was telling people a bigger earthquake was coming. He even plotted to concoct a loosely scientific sounding story about what to tell the locals to calm them. Something like lots of small earthquakes release the energy and make the resulting main earthquake less dangerous. Something crazy like that.

Obviously the seismologists couldn't have predicted an earthquake precisely but they as ordered overstated the case that it was safe. Those small quakes were foreshocks of a big quake, people stayed in their homes, and many died. This was spun here as look at these superstitious Italians when it was more about officials making unscientific claims to mollify locals to get them out of their hair. It was essentially a negligence case.

Edit: I just refreshed my memory. This is mostly right. One official ended up serving actual time because he was at the meeting and pushed the narrative. His boss was the other official on the recording and had his conviction overturned. Quality!

;tldr - this might very well be likened to the McDonald's case of earthquake-based prosecutions
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 4:18 pm You are so risk adverse you can't possibly fathom someone understanding everything you just wrote and still coming to a different conclusion.
But risk isn't the entirety of my personal calculation. Of course risk is in the mix, but it's not the only reason I'm choosing to do and not do things. Case in point:

I’m seeing a lot of “these people are over-estimating risk” chatter that doesn’t acknowledge that the probability you die if you get covid is always less than the probability *anyone* dies if you get covid.

It’s not “over-estimation” to consider community impacts.
By December we had twice as much data.... if not more.
All backwards-facing. Trying to use last month's data to make decisions about what you're doing tomorrow is complicated. Which is why we educate individuals and push for community polices. One doesn't work; both are needed.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

And yet the AAP says kids should be in school.
You disagree.

In my situation I've listened to both of you at different times.

Keeping my kids at home from March-December was the right answer. From December to today was the wrong answer.


Edit: localized the decision. Ymmv etc etc
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Smoove_B »

I've absolutely thought similar things - that maybe I should have sent her in (again, only using risk as a variable, not at all considering community benefit). However, that's arguably engaging in survivor bias - evaluating the current situation only based on the net-positive examples (i.e. kids, teachers and staff that didn't get COVID or didn't suffer complications or problems if they contracted it) and completely ignoring all the cases that were medically complex and/or deaths that occurred between the same two points in time.

If you could guarantee an outcome, who wouldn't go back and make different decisions? But you know it doesn't work that way - we're constantly being tasked with making decisions without fully understanding the true risk.All you can do as a parent is make the best decision for you and your family. All I can do as a practitioner or policy maker is try to communicate as much as we know and give you the best chance to make an informed decision. Again, ideally that's directed education, and emergency orders that shape behaviors (or outside of an emergency, laws that influence behavior).

In retrospect, it looks "crazy' that I would keep my daughter home. For my area, it was likely the safest between September and just before Thanksgiving. But I didn't have the luxury of having all that information when I was force to make a decision in August. Nor could I know what things would look like in December - February or so in my area, just as the vaccine was rolling out. That's what I was saying earlier - we're always guessing. Sometimes we're really good. Other times, not so much - but we're guessing nonetheless. Looking backwards with actual data (that you didn't have; that no one had) and evaluating your decisions isn't productive. It might help us make better models, but it shouldn't be used to evaluate decisions that were made in good faith.
And yet the AAP says kids should be in school.
You disagree.
I don't place all-knowing weight on the AAP. To repeat, I agree kids (specifically K-6) should likely be in school, but not when there are high levels of community transmission. There are other factors to consider and I'm pretty sure the AAP has said as much.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82087
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Isgrimnur »

Axios
Oklahoma has secured a $2.6 million refund for a malaria drug purchase once touted by former President Trump as a treatment for COVID-19, the state's attorney general announced Friday.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Zarathud
Posts: 16434
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:29 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Zarathud »

I will feel much better about my high risk type 1 diabetic children being in school once 12+ years are cleared for a vaccine. They’ll both qualify in August. Their emotional difficulties in directly conflict with their safety and school needs. There was no right answer about school.

We agreed to 2-day attendance knowing that their school attendance would be very low due to demographics and a few appointments they had scheduled knocked out a few days. The other decision to stay at home would have been just as logical.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
User avatar
Ralph-Wiggum
Posts: 17449
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

A new paper is out about the impacts of mitigation factors in schools in reducing Covid risk. Most interesting is that some “mitigation” factors, like plexiglass barriers, are actually associated with increased risk.

Black Lives Matter
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove, I didn't have time to get back to this conversation yesterday, but I want to make it clear that I find your insight extremely valuable.

I very much appreciate that I have access to your viewpoint.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
Post Reply