Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70097
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:43 pm Yeah, as Zaxxon pointed out, the masking issue is probably the biggest thing wrong and will likely go down as the "mission accomplished" element of this pandemic in America. Telling people that were vaccinated to remove masks made sense (scientifically), but then expecting unvaccinated folks to just continue to wear them was foolish. We've now normalized mask removal and I am having a hard time imagining going back, possibly ever again. Culturally it just doesn't work in America and that's unfortunate. But in terms of doing the bare minimum to protect those that can't be vaccinated? Indoor mask mandates should have remained in place and without a practical/realistic way to verify vaccination status and reliably trust the general public to do the right thing, that means everyone should have continued to wear masks indoors.

The problem is that we knew people were going to resist vaccinating - not hesitate, but actually resist. We also knew that people weren't going to vaccinate their kids - which of all the things, I can actually empathize with in terms of grappling with a decision to do so. Masks were the only practical/easy way to mitigate spread and yet socially/culturally they were (and are) unacceptable to so many - no just adults, but especially the idea that we'd "force" children to wear them.

I guess when pushed, the federal government (and then the states) ultimately decided that they'll just appeal to the better nature of the average American and assume they'll do the right thing. I wish I could have been there when the discussion was happening because I would have firmly been on the other side of the argument pointing out what had just happened over the last 12+ months.
People were all chomping at the bit to come back to the office. We opened the office to no pre-approval required. We now must mask in shared spaces and when when traveling throughout the office. Not one additional person is coming in since opening the office for optional return. Inevitably many of the folk who are so bothered to make an occasion to commute have no respect for the masking requirements when they are bothered to be here. Humanity. This, quite frankly, is why we should take little comfort in the part of Trump having lost in 2020. There is sense of individualist entitlement that makes people experts on everything until the bad stuff happens to them.

And we aren't going back. The only good thing is most of the office is vaccinated. It's going to be stinker for those who aren't when MIOSHA and the auto industry (the most restrictive of the two guidance at any given time is the one we follow) ease restrictions for vaccinated people but not for non-vaccinated people as is already becoming the case. There is already talk of disgust because "what about the people who have built antibodies" aka those who went out and got infected and got better. :x I dare those ... to say that in front of the guy here whose 20 year old son was hospitalized for a few months and used to be a cross country runner. I say used to because nearly year later, that's still off the table.

/rant
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

An update on Mississippi:
Twelve children in Mississippi are in intensive care with COVID-19, including 10 on ventilators, Mississippi’s state health officer, Dr. Thomas Dobbs, said Monday in tweet.

The Delta variant of the coronavirus has been reported to have a greater effect on younger people, and the rapid spread of the variant is causing concern across the nation.

...

On Tuesday, the State Department of Health reported 219 new cases of COVID-19 and 10 new deaths.

Dobbs tweeted on Monday that almost all current COVID-19 cases in Mississippi are the Delta variant, and that he’s worried that seven percent of recent COVID deaths were vaccinated people.
Beyond frustrating.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

I can only imagine that you see people pushing their kids to go play in traffic while they ignore your calls for simple ways to keep them alive.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Skinypupy
Posts: 20331
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
Location: Utah

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Skinypupy »

Tennessee Department of Health abandons all vaccine outreach to minors. Not just the COVID vaccine...any vaccine.

I can only assume burning doctors at the stake for witchcraft is the next logical step for these dolts.
The Tennessee Department of Health will halt all adolescent vaccine outreach – not just for coronavirus, but all diseases – amid pressure from Republican state lawmakers, according to an internal report and agency emails obtained by the Tennessean. If the health department must issue any information about vaccines, staff are instructed to strip the agency logo off the documents.

The health department will also stop all COVID-19 vaccine events on school property, despite holding at least one such event this month. The decisions to end vaccine outreach and school events come directly from Health Commissioner Dr. Lisa Piercey, the internal report states.

Additionally, the health department will take steps to ensure it no longer sends postcards or other notices reminding teenagers to get their second dose of the coronavirus vaccines. Postcards will still be sent to adults, but teens will be excluded from the mailing list so the postcards are not “potentially interpreted as solicitation to minors,” the report states.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63524
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Could be a lot of free land come available soon in TN.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I did mention the vaccine stuff (and others) in the other COVID-19 thread we have, fwiw.

Just saw this about what's going on int Texas:


10 days later and were closing in on 8% [positivity rate]

Or back where we were in early March.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

And to keep the good news rolling, a speculative piece about what we might see for the Fall school year based on what's happening now with camps:
The U.S. has seen a string of COVID-19 outbreaks tied to summer camps in recent weeks in places such as Texas, Illinois, Florida, Missouri and Kansas, in what some fear could be a preview of the upcoming school year.

In some cases the outbreaks have spread from the camp to the broader community.

The clusters have come as the number of newly confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the U.S. has reversed course, surging more than 60% over the past two weeks from an average of about 12,000 a day to around 19,500, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The rise in many places has been blamed on too many unvaccinated people and the highly contagious delta variant.
Perspective from the inside:
Elsewhere the situation is better. The roughly 225 overnight camps and thousands of day camps run by local YMCAs are mostly open this summer, though with slightly reduced capacity, said Paul McEntire, chief operating officer for YMCA of the USA.

McEntire said he is aware of a few cases of Y camps where people tested positive for the virus, but no instances of significant spread. He said many camps are taking precautions such as serving meals in shifts or outside and trying to keep youngsters in separate groups. Most are requiring masks indoors, but he acknowledged it can be a challenge.

“To be frank, there are some parents that didn’t want to send their kids unless they were assured that masking was being used indoors,” he said. “There were others that took the exact opposite viewpoint.”
However:
Schaffner said he thinks schools won’t face similar outbreaks because they tend to be more structured and disciplined than camps and because most got used to making adjustments over the past year and a half. But he said the best way to reduce the risk is to get most people vaccinated.

“There are many parts of the country that simply have not grasped this,” he said.
Yeah, if their structure includes mask use. But if parents demand mask-free children? Good luck.

So far only California and NYC have indicated they will require masks in schools. NJ is leaving it up to the locals. That's all I know.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Just seeing this now:


NEW: U.S. reports more than 41,000 new coronavirus cases, the highest since early May, including 3-day backlog from Florida
Hold on to your butts.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

I assume the three day backlog means that the 41,000 number includes three days worth of cases from Florida? Not that that's not still bad, but the daily cases per day would be lower, right?
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I think so, though I'm guessing more detailed breakdowns will be coming in the next 24 hours as things are seemingly ratcheting up. I am watching, because I can't not watch. Also, I am tired of watching.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63524
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Im not sure how much more backwards we can go. Im sure the state GOP will demonstrate new ways.

Top Tennessee health official says she was fired after efforts to get teens vaccinated

Dr. Michelle Fiscus, a pediatrician, was fired Monday as the medical director for vaccine-preventable diseases and immunization programs at the Tennessee Department of Health.

Enlarge Image
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Unagi
Posts: 26376
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:14 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Unagi »

Kansas seems like an interesting hot-spot as well.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Thoughts and prayers.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

7/14/20 in NJ? 423 new cases
7/14/21 in NJ? 371 new cases

If you don't look at the demographic details, it's almost like the vaccine doesn't exist, though it's arguable that 2020 actuals were higher and we had poorer testing protocols/ability. Regardless, our Rt went up again today to 1.08, just a slight increase from yesterday but again suggesting COVID-19 is spreading.

At this point, classic public health practice would say, current control measures are not working - we need to review what we're doing and adopt additional control measures to stem spread.

<crickets>
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
coopasonic
Posts: 20966
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 11:43 pm
Location: Dallas-ish

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

So I am getting the feeling attending that board game convention I am so excited for this November in Dallas is going to be a really bad idea. They have sold tickets to 70% of their previous numbers and are talking about opening up more if things look good. If they do that...
-Coop
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
Ralph-Wiggum
Posts: 17449
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

South Carolina just hit 8% positivity today after being ~2 - 3% for weeks. If we really try, I'm sure we can get to double digits by the end of the week.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Mask indoors in public. This is the best effort to reward ratio option we have. But no, we're just not going to go back to that because we graduated.

I mean we can even keep unmasked outdoor crowd events.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70097
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jul 14, 2021 2:47 pm Mask indoors in public.
That plus masking around known non vaccinated people in private are the rules I will live by until ???

We're getting ready to have our first departmental lunch since Dec 2019. I'm not sure if I will be pushing to eat out doors or not. I already crossed the rubicon for eating publicly indoors twice with my parents. Once at Costco and once at... Golden Coral... :roll: I will say, GC did make everyone wear masks and gloves including patrons not at their tables. That's more than I can say for Target, where patrons and employees seems to have totally ended the pandemic. (not going back to Target for the foreseeable future. Even it's reasonable and I am the one who is unreasonable, I was not ready and I just wanted to get out as quickly as possible.)
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Re-adopting indoor masking requirements costs absolutely nothing and it's something everyone should easily be able to comply with. The fact that we won't do it then is beyond frustrating.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:00 pm Re-adopting indoor masking requirements costs absolutely nothing
It costs muh freedumb!!
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Canada low-key getting it done


With Canada vaccinating 1.2% of their population each day, and US <0.2%, they will exceed US fully vaccinated in the next 2 days.
1st dose, total population: Canada 70% vs US 55%
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

Maybe we can use some Jingoism to get vaccination rates up? #BeatCanada
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Just saw this factoid in one of the various updated articles covering my state today:
According to Johns Hopkins University, with more than 4.05 million people having died from complications related to the virus.

The U.S. has reported the most cases (more than 33.92 million) and deaths (more than 607,800) than any other nation.
:(
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28906
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Holman »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:01 pm Just saw this factoid in one of the various updated articles covering my state today:
According to Johns Hopkins University, with more than 4.05 million people having died from complications related to the virus.

The U.S. has reported the most cases (more than 33.92 million) and deaths (more than 607,800) than any other nation.
:(
Are the comparisons accurate, though?

There has been plenty of reporting on China and India (and they're surely not the only ones) fudging their numbers.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

That's fair, we've reported the most. However, across the boards, I'm telling you everyone is under-reporting. Some intentionally, most inadvertently.

EDIT: Case in point


NY data shenanigans. Does not count #COVID19 deaths that occur in home or in prisons (are these the undead?). The toll also includes only deaths that were lab confirmed. @NCHS rocks for excellent & timely mortality data & standards to count deaths.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kurth »

So, my general impression from everything I’ve read/heard was that the Delta variant was a lot more dangerous in terms of its likelihood to produce severe cases of COVID requiring hospitalization or leading to death.

But, this morning, the NYT is telling me that is bullshit. Hopeful News on Delta: The Delta variant is more contagious. It does not appear to be more severe.

According to this article, Delta is more contagious, but not any more severe than prior COVID variants:
There are two basic questions to ask about any variant of the Covid-19 virus: Is it more contagious than earlier versions of the virus? And is it more severe?

When a variant is more contagious, it leads to a rise in the number of infections, especially among the unvaccinated. When a variant is more severe, it causes worse symptoms for the average person who gets the virus and leads to a greater percentage of cases that result in hospitalization or death.

It is easy to confuse these two different concepts when a variant — like Delta — begins spreading. If the variant is more contagious, it often appears to be more severe as well because the increase in caseloads leads to an increase in the raw number of hospitalizations and deaths, as Dr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, explained to me.

In response, journalists and some experts talk about the new variant being “worse,” “riskier” or “more dangerous” — broad concepts that muddy the difference between contagiousness and severity. “Part of the problem is imprecision in language,” Dr. Rebecca Wurtz, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota, said.

The difference between the two concepts is important. If a new variant is not actually more severe, it doesn’t present a greater threat to a typical person who contracts Covid. Vaccinated people would remain protected. For children too young to be vaccinated, serious Covid symptoms would still be exceedingly rare — rarer than many other everyday risks, like riding in a car — and still concentrated among children with other health problems.

After the Alpha variant began spreading late last year, many people assumed that it was both more contagious and more severe. The data soon told a different story, though: Alpha seems to be only more contagious.

Now the story may be repeating itself with Delta. It is significantly more contagious than even Alpha by almost every measure. It does not appear to be more severe, based on the data available so far.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Know it is an anecdote but one of my friends is EMS. She was saying since the mask mandate was dropped several vaccinated cops have gotten mild COVID cases in multiple townships here in NJ . For Smoove_B, one hot spot she mentioned was cops in Parsippany. None of the cases were serious but hoping masks come back here if current trend continues. I imagine it won't happen until November...for reasons. :roll:
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:52 am Now the story may be repeating itself with Delta. It is significantly more contagious than even Alpha by almost every measure. It does not appear to be more severe, based on the data available so far.
Once again, the kicker is the vaccine, in terms of protecting the group we've already identified as the most vulnerable (elderly). I don't know that I've seen data suggesting Delta is worse for unvaccinated elders (65+) or the elder elders (75+), but I'm guessing someone is collecting it from whatever smaller pool of them remains (unvaccinated).

Since day one, everyone has been very focused on how "deadly" COVID-19 is (or is not), which is understandable; death is final. What I don't know (what no one knows) is whether or not Delta (or future variants) increase risk of chronic health problems in comparison to the original strain. Again, it would seem that symptomatic people (regardless of whether or not they're hospitalized) are at increased risk. So if Delta increases the chances of the virus working your body over like a speedbag, it would stand to reason that it increases your risk of chronic health impacts.

Regardless, the idea that we're continuing to allow (arguably, encouraging) uncontrolled spread is beyond frustrating.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:11 am Know it is an anecdote but one of my friends is EMS. She was saying since the mask mandate was dropped several vaccinated cops have gotten mild COVID cases in multiple townships here in NJ . For Smoove_B, one hot spot she mentioned was cops in Parsippany. None of the cases were serious but hoping masks come back here if current trend continues. I imagine it won't happen until November...for reasons. :roll:
I haven't seen updated data for NJ regarding police officers (states and local) and vaccine uptake. Those numbers might be above my pay grade, quite frankly, and a closely guarded data set.

I think it's pretty clear we're at that point where masks should be re-implemented now. If this really doesn't magically come back until after November, significant damage will have already been done.

NJ is now reporting 441 new cases today and a Rt 1.16 - still spreading. This is the third (reported) day where numbers are increasing. It's time; this is not the trend you want to start ~ a month before some NJ schools resume.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:24 pm

I think it's pretty clear we're at that point where masks should be re-implemented now. If this really doesn't magically come back until after November, significant damage will have already been done.

NJ is now reporting 441 new cases today and a Rt 1.16 - still spreading. This is the third (reported) day where numbers are increasing. It's time; this is not the trend you want to start ~ a month before some NJ schools resume.
It's a political dead end, no one has the balls. And unfortunately that's why we won't go back to masks unless/until there are overflowing ICUs and reefer trucks with bodies. Because those are worse political optics, but only just.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
Defiant
Posts: 21045
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Tongue in cheek

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:52 am So, my general impression from everything I’ve read/heard was that the Delta variant was a lot more dangerous in terms of its likelihood to produce severe cases of COVID requiring hospitalization or leading to death.

But, this morning, the NYT is telling me that is bullshit. Hopeful News on Delta: The Delta variant is more contagious. It does not appear to be more severe.

According to this article, Delta is more contagious, but not any more severe than prior COVID variants:
It looks like their argument is that hospitalizations and deaths haven't significantly risen. But in order to make a direct comparison, you would need to see how dangerous the disease is on the unvaccinated, since the original strain didn't have to contend with vaccinations at the time it did it's damage. (You'd also have to account for issues like age, comorbidities, etc)

I posted a link to a preprint paper in one of these covid threads that did that and it showed that the death rate was 2x when adjusting for those factors.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:52 pm
Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:52 am So, my general impression from everything I’ve read/heard was that the Delta variant was a lot more dangerous in terms of its likelihood to produce severe cases of COVID requiring hospitalization or leading to death.

But, this morning, the NYT is telling me that is bullshit. Hopeful News on Delta: The Delta variant is more contagious. It does not appear to be more severe.

According to this article, Delta is more contagious, but not any more severe than prior COVID variants:
It looks like their argument is that hospitalizations and deaths haven't significantly risen. But in order to make a direct comparison, you would need to see how dangerous the disease is on the unvaccinated, since the original strain didn't have to contend with vaccinations at the time it did it's damage. (You'd also have to account for issues like age, comorbidities, etc)

I posted a link to a preprint paper in one of these covid threads that did that and it showed that the death rate was 2x when adjusting for those factors.
Is that 2x for unvaccinated people? Or 2x on average across different populations?
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kurth »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:21 pm
Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:52 am Now the story may be repeating itself with Delta. It is significantly more contagious than even Alpha by almost every measure. It does not appear to be more severe, based on the data available so far.
Once again, the kicker is the vaccine, in terms of protecting the group we've already identified as the most vulnerable (elderly). I don't know that I've seen data suggesting Delta is worse for unvaccinated elders (65+) or the elder elders (75+), but I'm guessing someone is collecting it from whatever smaller pool of them remains (unvaccinated).

Since day one, everyone has been very focused on how "deadly" COVID-19 is (or is not), which is understandable; death is final. What I don't know (what no one knows) is whether or not Delta (or future variants) increase risk of chronic health problems in comparison to the original strain. Again, it would seem that symptomatic people (regardless of whether or not they're hospitalized) are at increased risk. So if Delta increases the chances of the virus working your body over like a speedbag, it would stand to reason that it increases your risk of chronic health impacts.

Regardless, the idea that we're continuing to allow (arguably, encouraging) uncontrolled spread is beyond frustrating.
It's probably also worth noting that chronic health problems due to viral infection is not at all unique to COVID.
While there’s no doubt long Covid is a real condition worthy of diagnosis and treatment, “this isn’t unique to Covid,” Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine, said. Covid-19 appears to be one of many infections, from Ebola to strep throat, that can give rise to stubbornly persistent symptoms in an unlucky subset of patients. “If Covid didn’t cause chronic symptoms to occur in some people,” PolyBio Research Foundation microbiologist Amy Proal told Vox, “it would be the only virus that didn’t do that.”
I'm not discounting "long COVID," but in terms of risk analysis, it does concern me that to hear many in the media talk about it, you'd think it was a particularly high and specific risk resulting from COVID infections. There's "long flu," after all, but no one talks about that or focuses on it because we are all hyper focused on COVID. That's not at all surprising given we're in a COVID pandemic, but it does tend to skew risk analysis:
Death is not the only outcome that parents fear, of course. Yet “long Covid” and hospitalization have also been very rare in children. It’s just that society has been so focused on Covid that we have paid intense attention to the risks associated with it — even when they are smaller than other risks that we unthinkingly accept.

To take one example, we don’t use the phrase “long flu,” but it’s a real problem, including for children: One academic study has found that up to 10 percent of people who contract influenza later develop cardiac inflammation.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

The difference is that we've been studying all of these other diseases for decades. We have a good handle on the chronic potential for some and know what to look for in terms of mitigating risk. I've mentioned it before, but it's not just viruses - there's a whole separate school of thought on how a single foodborne illness (bacteria, parasites and viruses) might lead to a lifetime of health problems.

The issue for COVID-19 is that it's new and we have no idea what's coming. That we would promote conditions that arguably encourage exposure in unvaccinated children is...something to witness.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Defiant
Posts: 21045
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Tongue in cheek

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:56 pm

Is that 2x for unvaccinated people? Or 2x on average across different populations?
It looks like they didn't have info on vaccination status Here's a link and some of the relevant stuff:



After adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, and temporal trend, large and significant increases in the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death were seen with both N501Y-positive VOC, and probable delta variant infections, relative to non-VOC (Table 2).
Image
A key limitation of our dataset is that it lacks data on individual-level vaccination status.
User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kurth »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:04 pm The difference is that we've been studying all of these other diseases for decades. We have a good handle on the chronic potential for some and know what to look for in terms of mitigating risk. I've mentioned it before, but it's not just viruses - there's a whole separate school of thought on how a single foodborne illness (bacteria, parasites and viruses) might lead to a lifetime of health problems.

The issue for COVID-19 is that it's new and we have no idea what's coming. That we would promote conditions that arguably encourage exposure in unvaccinated children is...something to witness.
I'm just regurgitating what I read, but that VOX article suggests we have very little clue in terms of handling chronic health conditions stemming from viral infection, generally.

In terms of risk analysis with COVID, I'm still not sure I'm following you. At the risk of stumbling into Rumsfeld territory, there are known risks and unknown risks and risks we know are out there but the magnitude is highly uncertain. It seems from what I've read that our current understanding is that the risk of chronic health problems associated with COVID-19 are no more or less serious than the risks of chronic health problems with any new virus.

We encounter unknown and unknowable risks every day and have to make decisions about what we're willing to accept and what we're not.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:11 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:04 pm The difference is that we've been studying all of these other diseases for decades. We have a good handle on the chronic potential for some and know what to look for in terms of mitigating risk. I've mentioned it before, but it's not just viruses - there's a whole separate school of thought on how a single foodborne illness (bacteria, parasites and viruses) might lead to a lifetime of health problems.

The issue for COVID-19 is that it's new and we have no idea what's coming. That we would promote conditions that arguably encourage exposure in unvaccinated children is...something to witness.
I'm just regurgitating what I read, but that VOX article suggests we have very little clue in terms of handling chronic health conditions stemming from viral infection, generally.

In terms of risk analysis with COVID, I'm still not sure I'm following you. At the risk of stumbling into Rumsfeld territory, there are known risks and unknown risks and risks we know are out there but the magnitude is highly uncertain. It seems from what I've read that our current understanding is that the risk of chronic health problems associated with COVID-19 are no more or less serious than the risks of chronic health problems with any new virus.

We encounter unknown and unknowable risks every day and have to make decisions about what we're willing to accept and what we're not.
I think the difference is this. We know very little about what "long COVID" will look like for the population at large and for different age groups. Our only time to prevent it is now (I mean, ideally a year ago, but we are where we are). If we let it go rampant, and then it turns out that the long COVID effects are very bad, then we have an enormous health emergency on our hands. Of course, there's also a chance that the long COVID effects are pretty mild on average. But we don't lose much in that scenario.

So maybe the risk that long COVID turns out to be awful might not be enough to justify full lockdowns everywhere for years, but it's a great reason to at least maintain sensible low cost restrictions (like masks and social distancing).
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Kurth wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:11 pm It seems from what I've read that our current understanding is that the risk of chronic health problems associated with COVID-19 are no more or less serious than the risks of chronic health problems with any new virus.
Serious isn't the same as likely. Namely, what is the incidence of "long COVID"? No one knows because we only have a little over a year's worth of data. Sure, it might not provide "serious" complications for the majority of children or adults, but it's a numbers game - like what we're seeing now with breakthrough infections. Allowing the virus to spread uncontrollably is a horrible strategy. My dad lost hearing (permanently) in one ear from a childhood mumps infection. Is that serious? On the scale of things that could have happened, probably not, but it's absolutely affected his life. For people with damaged lungs or hearts from COVID, is that "serious" if they're able to walk around and function without long-term assistance? Maybe no more sports or maybe it doesn't really impact their lives until they hit their 60s? Maybe it clips a few years off their lifespan.
We encounter unknown and unknowable risks every day and have to make decisions about what we're willing to accept and what we're not.
Absolutely. As a vaccinated person you're probably now more likely to die in your shower or in a car accident on the way to work.

However, we're still in a pandemic (despite what you might have heard) and the idea that we removed what is arguably the easiest and cheapest broad-scale protection for everyone (masking) while outbreaks were still occurring nationwide is something I'll never understand.

EDIT: I think so much of my frustration lately is coming from this general perception I have that the media and the public (in general) is over COVID-19 - it's no longer an issue. No only in terms of the number of cases and deaths, but having it just spread around now. It feels like (to me) there's been an effort to minimize impacts now that he vaccine is out and it's summer. Meanwhile, random bad actors in various states are pushing anti-vaccination agendas and continuing to dismantle public health, seemingly building off the general sentiment that it's no big deal (anymore).
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
Post Reply