Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:56 am And the complication gets in do you affect more people being binary or nuanced? It seems the official messages are pretty good with gray. While I think the CDC is a bit slow with updates, they overall do a good job of messaging. It gets messy when "experts" (the quotes are for lack of representative sampling as opposed to lack of credentials) are interviewed and then the message is then delivered by a non-expert... just like most science messaging.
I learned yesterday that the term for that type of person is an ultracrepidarian.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

NY Times
‘Excess Deaths’ in 2020 Surpassed Those of 1918 Flu Pandemic

A surge in deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic created the largest gap between the actual and expected death rate in 2020 — what epidemiologists call “excess deaths,” or deaths above normal.

Aside from fatalities directly attributed to Covid-19, some excess deaths last year were most likely undercounts of the virus or misdiagnoses, or indirectly related to the pandemic otherwise. Preliminary federal data show that overdose deaths have also surged during the pandemic.

A New York Times analysis of U.S. death patterns for the past century shows how much 2020 deviated from the norm.

Since the 1918 pandemic, the country’s death rate has fallen steadily. But last year, the Covid-19 pandemic interrupted that trend, in spite of a century of improvements in medicine and public health.

In the first half of the 20th century, deaths were mainly dominated by infectious diseases. As medical advancements increased life expectancy, death rates also started to smooth out in the 1950s, and the mortality rate in recent decades — driven largely by chronic diseases — had continued to decline.

In 2020, however, the United States saw the largest single-year surge in the death rate since federal statistics became available. The rate increased 16 percent from 2019, even more than the 12 percent jump during the 1918 flu pandemic.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70100
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:09 pm or indirectly related to the pandemic otherwise. Preliminary federal data show that overdose deaths have also surged during the pandemic.
I'd imagine suicides and deaths related to being unable or unwilling to receive medical also went up.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:13 pm
malchior wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:09 pm or indirectly related to the pandemic otherwise. Preliminary federal data show that overdose deaths have also surged during the pandemic.
I'd imagine suicides and deaths related to being unable or unwilling to receive medical also went up.
Suicides declined, fairly significantly actually.

Deaths from delay in care or lack of care are difficult to track.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Table:

Enlarge Image
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70100
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:21 pm
LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:13 pm
malchior wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:09 pm or indirectly related to the pandemic otherwise. Preliminary federal data show that overdose deaths have also surged during the pandemic.
I'd imagine suicides and deaths related to being unable or unwilling to receive medical also went up.
Suicides declined, fairly significantly actually.

Deaths from delay in care or lack of care are difficult to track.

I would never have guessed that.

Also interesting to jumps in diabetes and heart related deaths but significant decline in respiratory deaths. Don't know what it means but it's interesting.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

I'm guessing some external factors that drive suicide weren't present or there was a 'substitution' effect from COVID-19.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:27 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:21 pm
LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:13 pm
malchior wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:09 pm or indirectly related to the pandemic otherwise. Preliminary federal data show that overdose deaths have also surged during the pandemic.
I'd imagine suicides and deaths related to being unable or unwilling to receive medical also went up.
Suicides declined, fairly significantly actually.

Deaths from delay in care or lack of care are difficult to track.

I would never have guessed that.

Also interesting to jumps in diabetes and heart related deaths but significant decline in respiratory deaths. Don't know what it means but it's interesting.
Diabetes and cardiac could be due to delayed care. But it could also be due to everyone putting on 20 lbs. Some of the cardiac may be undiagnosed COVID.


As malchior said, suicide decline is probably somehow related to COVID. Interesting to note that it was basically back to 2016 levels.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Oh, and in case you wondering, yes there are still people that should know better chiming in with total crap:


MIT researchers —neither of whom have background in ID epi or virology.. say “hey ⁦@Stanford⁩ hold my Beer mug" Pile of poo
But I guess because they're from MIT they magically know things.
MIT professors Martin Z. Bazant, who teaches chemical engineering and applied mathematics, and John W.M. Bush, who teaches applied mathematics, developed a method of calculating exposure risk to Covid-19 in an indoor setting that factors in a variety of issues that could affect transmission, including the amount of time spent inside, air filtration and circulation, immunization, variant strains, mask use, and even respiratory activity such as breathing, eating, speaking or singing.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

I mean it could be right but this is a variant of what I was saying about Nate's sins. Develop the model and then run it by an expert. This isn't hard folks. Interdisciplinary science collaboration is hardly a new thing.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

At least read the abstract because that's not what they said at all.

"There is now overwhelming evidence that indoor airborne transmission associated with relatively small, micron-scale aerosol droplets plays a dominant role in the spread of COVID-19 (4, 5, 7, 17⇓–19, 22), especially for so-called “superspreading events” (25⇓⇓–28), which invariably occur indoors (29). For example, at the 2.5-h-long Skagit Valley Chorale choir practice that took place in Washington State on March 10, some 53 of 61 attendees were infected, presumably not all of them within 6 ft of the initially infected individual (25). Similarly, when 23 of 68 passengers were infected on a 2-h bus journey in Ningbo, China, their seated locations were uncorrelated with distance to the index case (28). Airborne transmission was also implicated in the COVID-19 outbreak between residents of a Korean high-rise building whose apartments were linked via air ducts (30). Studies have also confirmed the presence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 virions in respiratory aerosols (31) suspended in air samples collected at distances as large as 16 ft from infected patients in a hospital room (3). Further evidence for the dominance of indoor airborne transmission has come from an analysis of 7,324 early cases outside the Hubei Province, in 320 cities across mainland China (32). "

"
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

The paper - right at the beginning - includes the following sentence:
By assuming that the respiratory droplets are mixed uniformly through an indoor space,
They are math geniuses that built an entire model on an assumption that is entirely false. An assumption they would have known was a bad premise if they were infectious disease doctors or in any way affiliated with someone that had ID knowledge.

The article is crap; that it was published is crap. Their paper shouldn't have cleared peer review, and yet here we are. And I have no doubts this kind of crap will get shared a thousand times over social media as "proof" that wearing masks is pointless and the government is trying to control everyone and keeping restaurants empty for no reason at all. Because MIT said the 6 foot rule is nonsense.

I mean, I don't know anything and I can see that's an issue a mile away.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:11 pm The paper - right at the beginning - includes the following sentence:
By assuming that the respiratory droplets are mixed uniformly through an indoor space,
They are math geniuses that built an entire model on an assumption that is entirely false. An assumption they would have known was a bad premise if they were infectious disease doctors or in any way affiliated with someone that had ID knowledge.

The article is crap; that it was published is crap. Their paper shouldn't have cleared peer review, and yet here we are. And I have no doubts this kind of crap will get shared a thousand times over social media as "proof" that wearing masks is pointless and the government is trying to control everyone and keeping restaurants empty for no reason at all. Because MIT said the 6 foot rule is nonsense.

I mean, I don't know anything and I can see that's an issue a mile away.
Why wouldn't aerosol droplets be mixed uniformly?

Also, they are mask proponents, "Our theoretical model quantifies the extent to which transmission risk is reduced in large rooms with high air exchange rates, increased for more vigorous respiratory activities, and dramatically reduced by the use of face masks."
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:52 pm Why wouldn't aerosol droplets be mixed uniformly?
To name a few reasons: humidity, air currents, droplet size, force/nature of ejection. ID scientists, epidemiologists and virologists have been genuinely discussing this for over a year now, some getting really heated over the details. That's why this is insulting.
Also, they are mask proponents, "Our theoretical model quantifies the extent to which transmission risk is reduced in large rooms with high air exchange rates, increased for more vigorous respiratory activities, and dramatically reduced by the use of face masks."
And yet you are probably the only non-scientist that read the paper and not the headline.

But they also specifically said this in the news article:
“What our analysis continues to show is that many spaces that have been shut down in fact don’t need to be. Often times the space is large enough, the ventilation is good enough, the amount of time people spend together is such that those spaces can be safely operated even at full capacity and the scientific support for reduced capacity in those spaces is really not very good,” Bazant said. “I think if you run the numbers, even right now for many types of spaces you’d find that there is not a need for occupancy restrictions.”

Six-feet social distancing rules that inadvertently result in closed businesses and schools are “just not reasonable,” according to Bazant.
There you go. Math-man ran the numbers and said the six-foot rule is unreasonable.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:04 pmTo name a few reasons: humidity, air currents, droplet size, force/nature of ejection. ID scientists, epidemiologists and virologists have been genuinely discussing this for over a year now, some getting really heated over the details. That's why this is insulting.
Congrats?

Nobody has a lock on peer reviewed data science. I'd think you'd like to inject some math and fluid dynamics people. I mean it was at least 6 months before we thought aerosols might be a transmission vector.

Data and science is data and science. I can deal with your criticism of Nate Silver. He's not peer reviewed. These guys are. If there's a flaw in their work then fine. But this ad hominem stuff is nonsense.
There you go. Math-man ran the numbers and said the six-foot rule is unreasonable.
I thought we've known that for a while. It's a public policy guidance, not some significant risk mitigation range.

This goes back to the other thread and risk evaluation. There's a crap ton of stuff that doesn't add up and I'm a layman. For an r0 of 1.2 (w/ mitigation) to 4 (no mitigation) we're treating this thing like the measles. I understand why, but there's not a lot of transparency here.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I think you're misinterpreting me here. These two mathematicians in all their hubris, ran some numbers and made commentary on public health policy without having the sense to involve the people that research this for a living as pat of their work. It's amazingly awesome that math people want to conduct research and add their expertise. But that's not what they did here. They used their expertise in math to design a study (that they likely passed around to their math peers) related to policy recommendations for a public health emergency. Now they're internet famous and on TV discussing how they've modeled that the 6 foot rule is absurd and businesses shouldn't be closed. They're undermining what has already been a labored effort to promote a message.

Actual researchers are still trying to figure out how this all works - we have no idea. We know more than we did a year ago, but for these two to come out and declare things settled and add fuel to the "mah freedoms" fire is really, really problematic.

EDIT: Also, the focus on the Rt numbers - they're mutable. The numbers we use are averages - generated after years and years of research. Trying to figure out the Rt now for COVID-19 is still impossible. Sure, there are guesses, but we don't know all the variables. On top of that, there are now variants - variants that have different abilities to infect random people. We have no way to monitor in real time what specific variant is circulating in any given restaurant. Maybe it's more than one. Maybe having variant A and C together has a synergistic impact on infectiousness. I can't repeat this enough - we're still learning. So our practice (historically) is to default to recommendations that are likely overly cautious because we don't know all the answers. So far, it's seemingly more transmissible than the flu but not as bad as measles. That might change next year. I get that people want hard line answers, but we're not there yet.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:30 pm I can't repeat this enough - we're still learning.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Blackhawk
Posts: 43488
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:48 pm
Location: Southwest Indiana

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

Crossing disciplines and having mathematicians and engineers give their input and expertise is awesome and something that I think should be encouraged. The problem is that if they run the math with the wrong numbers, they're going to get wrong answers. And if you skimp on having subject matter experts involved, there's a good chance you're going to be starting with the wrong numbers. The sad thing is that with more wisdom and common sense, the time, money, and expertise involved here might have resulted in some really useful data.

But how does it help anyone to have a beautifully rendered statistical and mathematical model... of a situation that doesn't exist and doesn't apply? What they did is like calculating how to cut emissions on highway travel if all the cars are driving underwater.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
User avatar
Lorini
Posts: 8282
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:52 am
Location: Santa Clarita, California

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

I'm very sorry to hear that Smoove. Just posted on my FB page for people to ignore the study and continue to wear their masks. How that could pass peer review just tells how terrible peer review is.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
Lorini
Posts: 8282
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:52 am
Location: Santa Clarita, California

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:24 am Crossing disciplines and having mathematicians and engineers give their input and expertise is awesome and something that I think should be encouraged. The problem is that if they run the math with the wrong numbers, they're going to get wrong answers. And if you skimp on having subject matter experts involved, there's a good chance you're going to be starting with the wrong numbers. The sad thing is that with more wisdom and common sense, the time, money, and expertise involved here might have resulted in some really useful data.

But how does it help anyone to have a beautifully rendered statistical and mathematical model... of a situation that doesn't exist and doesn't apply? What they did is like calculating how to cut emissions on highway travel if all the cars are driving underwater.
They clearly had ulterior motives here and MIT should call them out on it.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
Blackhawk
Posts: 43488
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:48 pm
Location: Southwest Indiana

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

It was published in a peer reviewed journal. I think they need to reconsider which peers review which content.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

A couple of my friends in academia actually were talking about this last night in a thread on FB. Another issue they raised is that PNAS is an interdisciplinary journal so an ID paper is publishable but controls seem to have failed at the Editorial level. They were questioning why PNAS published material without validating they included an expert at least a little adjacent to the subject matter. Instead it was a mathematician and a chemical scientist. In any case, the whole thing is a bit of a black eye for PNAS as well.

Edit: Though they didn't seem to hold PNAS in high esteem to begin with. This was essentially them saying...well that's PNAS. FWIW.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:39 am hey were questioning why PNAS published material without validating they included an expert at least a little adjacent to the subject matter. Instead it was a mathematician and a chemical scientist. In any case, the whole thing is a bit of a black eye for PNAS as well.
Because they were dazzled by the fact that two MIT researchers wanted to published a study about COVID in PNAS. It's the same when a Harvard professor wants to get on the news about the pandemic or write an OpEd for the NYT. It doesn't matter that they're an economist, they're from Harvard!

And no, I'm not being elitist; I'm about as low on the totem pole as you can be in public health. It's a matter of knowing the source. When I'm getting updated material for food safety, I'm not combing through journals on Atmospheric Science or Particle Physics.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Blackhawk
Posts: 43488
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:48 pm
Location: Southwest Indiana

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

I've been poking around about it. Apparently it's tough to get published, and review process is thorough. Unless you're a member of the National Academy of Sciences, at which point you get to bypass part of the review process, and (according to one blurb I read) pick which reviewer will handle your submission (this sounds wrong for so many reasons.) I read that 98% percent of papers from members get published vs 18% from non-members. One source said that a lot of the appeal of submitting there was that getting published in PNAS was faster because there were fewer reviews and they were less likely to nitpick than other journals, which appealed to scientists afraid of getting their discovery scooped.

All in all, it sounds less like a scientific journal and more like a fraternity newsletter. It just happens that the fraternity in this case is hugely prestigious.

In the interest of fairness, I did read that they've been making progress on addressing some of this over the past decade.

I did read that PNAS is informally known as, "Papers Not Accepted by Science." (As in the journal Science.) Also, it shall, forever more, be pronounced P-NAS.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

There was a similar issue earlier this week during an Ohio House Committee meeting:


@VoteJenaPowell cited this Medical Hypotheses study in a House committee this morning on a bill to eliminate the state's mask mandate.

@EmiliaSykesOH pointed out that all studies are not equal and using the Stanford name makes the item appear more credible than it is.
It's apparently a "study" that's being passed around social media by parents and anti-vax people as a way to help them argue why schools should be open and mask mandates eliminated by the state of Ohio.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Ralph-Wiggum
Posts: 17449
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Re: PNAS. The Academy member publishing thing is a problem. It has lead to some wildly off-the-wall papers getting through. But the vast majority of articles in any given issue aren’t by Academy members. And those articles should state that’s the case upfront, but I’m sure that it gets overlooked by most people.

I don’t know if that was the case for this specific article and I would hope the editor would have had at least one epidemiologist review the paper, but hard to know since reviewers are usually anonymous. I’m any case, one paper like that shouldn’t be the basis for making any policy decisions.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
Moat_Man
Posts: 1653
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:44 am
Location: Burnaby, BC

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Moat_Man »

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:08 am
malchior wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:39 am hey were questioning why PNAS published material without validating they included an expert at least a little adjacent to the subject matter. Instead it was a mathematician and a chemical scientist. In any case, the whole thing is a bit of a black eye for PNAS as well.
Because they were dazzled by the fact that two MIT researchers wanted to published a study about COVID in PNAS. It's the same when a Harvard professor wants to get on the news about the pandemic or write an OpEd for the NYT. It doesn't matter that they're an economist, they're from Harvard!

And no, I'm not being elitist; I'm about as low on the totem pole as you can be in public health. It's a matter of knowing the source. When I'm getting updated material for food safety, I'm not combing through journals on Atmospheric Science or Particle Physics.
Dammit. I hate when you're right.
Atmospheric Science

Particle Physics
End of line
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I cannot even begin to comprehend what's happening in India right now



We really need to send our stockpiled AZ shots to them as there's no chance of Americans using them.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Jaymon
Posts: 3006
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 12:51 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Jaymon »

I have many friends in India. They are all smart capable people who are no doubt taking every precaution. But they still need groceries and have to leave the house sometimes. But its simply not possible to go when it "isn't crowded". Its India, its always crowded. I am worried for their health far more worried than any of my friends from other parts of the world.
Bunnies like beer because its made from hops.
User avatar
Zarathud
Posts: 16433
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:29 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zarathud »

PM Modi (India’s very own Trump) had been declaring the “endgame” against COVID-19 and opening up that very populous country. Huge political rallies. Cricket games with thousands and millions at religious festivals on the Ganges.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Jaymon wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:38 pm I have many friends in India. They are all smart capable people who are no doubt taking every precaution. But they still need groceries and have to leave the house sometimes. But its simply not possible to go when it "isn't crowded". Its India, its always crowded. I am worried for their health far more worried than any of my friends from other parts of the world.
Same here. I was last in India in December 2019. I think about all the folks there and I can't help to think how devastating this must be. I too worry about them the most. It's impossible not to be exposed there and there is no fallback for them. Their rich are fleeing the country right now to wait it out somewhere without a collapsed health care system. It's about as bleak as any we can think of right now.
User avatar
Ralph-Wiggum
Posts: 17449
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Smoove_B wrote:
We really need to send our stockpiled AZ shots to them as there's no chance of Americans using them.
I read on Twitter that the contracts the Trump admin signed with the vaccine makers prevents the US from sending their vaccines to other countries. But even if the Biden admin can get around that, I am not sure how much good sending them those vaccines will do; it’s unclear to me whether Indias problems are more due to vaccine shortages vs the logistics of administering the vaccines they have.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, I was just about to post the same. I had no idea about the contract issues, but it does make sense. The White House issued a statement pledging all kinds of emergency supplies and I'm hoping they're also working towards address that contract stuff. Above and beyond the moral obligation, from a 100% pragmatic viewpoint, we (the entire globe) would be foolish to ignore what's happening in India - it absolutely affects us and until the entire planet has vaccinations and lower circulating virus, we're all still in danger.

I'm also not entirely sure about vaccines vs vaccine access, but the global health people I follow are calling for it, so I have to assume they know more than I do and believe sending vaccines would be helpful.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Another issue is that Indian infrastructure is to not put a fine point on it...horrible. Can we get the vaccines there and can they receive them? Can they store them? Can they actually get them into arms? We had better have damn good answers before we ship them there or anywhere. Should they sit around unused here? Nope but perhaps we are better off shipping them south or north of our border. I hope they are studying that right now.

Edit: Just seeing the last post - it may be that the global health people have already figured this out. Then that's one less 'excuse' not to do it other than avoiding the optics of howling Republicans who won't even tell their folks to go get it.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Zarathud wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:54 pm PM Modi (India’s very own Trump) had been declaring the “endgame” against COVID-19 and opening up that very populous country. Huge political rallies. Cricket games with thousands and millions at religious festivals on the Ganges.
Elections, baby. Get that vote in for me before you die!
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
hitbyambulance
Posts: 10233
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:51 am
Location: Map Ref 47.6°N 122.35°W
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

my sister-in-law is from Kashmir, and she's already lost at least one cousin and aunt over there (one directly to COVID, another from a reaction to an AZ vaccine that the hospital completely bungled the response to... they administered the wrong treatment and she died). heard story about another person who was in the hospital due to COVID, but wasn't being supervised and they got out of their bed, fell, hit their head on some furniture or something and died.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Damn, I'm so sorry to hear that, hba.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Retraction Watch
A study that warned of the perils of using face masks as a precaution against contracting Covid-19 appears slated for retraction, Retraction Watch has learned.

The 2020 paper, “Facemasks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis,” was written by Baruch Vainshelboim, who listed his affiliation as Stanford University and the VA Palo Alto Health System.
...
Stanford isn’t the only bogus credential Vainshelboim has used as an author. He often lists an affiliation with Rabin Medical Center, in Israel. However, according to an email we have seen from a faculty member at the institution, Vainshelboim has not been on staff there for at least eight years and never held a professorship, as he has claimed in biographies.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Huh. Imagine that. I'm sure it will be broadly shared and discussed on various antimask/anti-vax sites.

Speaking of masks, Michigan is not messing around:
As Michigan grapples with a surge of Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, state officials have expanded the mask mandate to include children as young as 2.
The mandate, which went into effect Monday, requires children ages 2 to 4 to wear face masks while in public spaces, including day care and camps. Before Monday, the mandate only extended to children ages 5 and older.
The change comes as the state is in the midst of one of the nation's worst Covid-19 outbreaks, even as vaccination numbers rise across the country.
NJ is loosening all kinds of restrictions over the next few weeks, all impacting businesses and gatherings. I know I said it before, but I genuinely fear we're slowly turning COVID-19 into a disease of children.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

That wasn't hard:

Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
Post Reply