Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[RunningMn9]

I’m not making a real strong claim to being “correct”, as I’m an idiot. I have a bad feeling, which I also happened to have in 2008. I didn’t feel shit in 1999/2000 because I was too young to know what can happen. I wasn’t “right” in 2008. I just happened to be really nervous as candidates where trashing the economy, and happened to have my money out of the market.

This bull market has been running for almost 12 years. When this ends, it probably won’t be exactly like 2008 (housing crisis) or 1999 (tech insanity). Maybe the problem here will be too much stupid money in the market doing weird irrational things.

I don’t know what it will be. But how much longer do we imagine it will last given that it’s already the longest bull market in history?

Hell if I know. And I get that this guy is a Negative Nancy. I’m just feeling negative with him.

[Isgrimnur]

Meanwhile, I've thrown back in after solidifying my losses by exiting in early March.

Back into S&P 500 GROWTH ETF and American Funds 2045 Target Date Retirement Fund.

You have been warned.

[malchior]

I don’t know what it will be. But how much longer do we imagine it will last given that it’s already the longest bull market in history?

Hell if I know. And I get that this guy is a Negative Nancy. I’m just feeling negative with him.

Fair - one thing to chew on is that the economy technically went through a sharp recession and then a sharp recovery. I have the glimmer of a thought that this short circuited a bit of the business cycle. I don't have a lot of actual evidence for that yet. More just a hypothesis. Being a consultant I saw several clients implement drastic cost-saving/cash preservation measures when the pandemic hit. I figured as a discretionary service that my business line (cybersecurity) was fucked. We then hit the best numbers we ever did across the whole firm. That said, we weren't winning as much *new work* but I watched clients re-organize their companies. In fact, I participated in re-designing entire functions including writing the job descriptions for new roles.

It sure felt like corporate management reacted appropriately to prepare the company in the sociopathic way that corporations do. And then the economy snapped back partially and I suspect much of the loss lives in 'main street'. I think part of that dynamic is being priced in. The crisis may have squeezed waste out of the machine that a normal recession usually accomplishes.

[RunningMn9]

If it helps, the rationalizing that goes into "this really can go on forever" is one of my red flags.

Not being an economist, it's hard for me to know whether or not what happened in Q2 really qualifies. I mean, the US economy contracted 31.4% in Q2 2020, but I'm not sure how "real" that was, given that everyone knew that it was temporary (more temporary than normal anyway). It's not like the economy was gang-busters going into that either. The economy had been slowing down all through 2019. That is nothing like what happened in 08 and 09 though, where we effectively had a year and a half of contraction (save for Q2 08). This felt too much like "don't really worry about this, as soon as the lockdowns are over, everything will go back to normal".

It's hard to consider it the economic reset that 08/09 was, given that the cause of this wasn't the economy (outside of the economy already slowing, heading into it).

I dunno. I see insane valuations. I see the utter insanity of the crypto markets, and it all feels like a house of cards.

Edit to add: Comparisons to 08/09 are likely unfair though, since that was (hopefully) a once in a lifetime type event.

[malchior]

If it helps, the rationalizing that goes into "this really can go on forever" is one of my red flags.

Yeah but that isn't what I meant. It was more along the lines, did we get a 5-6 year circuit breaker on the business cycle? It is possible but again this is just based on what I saw in about 5-6 Fortune 50 size clients. The Global Fortune 5 I was mainly attached too also had the oil price crisis last year hit at the same time and they made drastic cuts. But contextually, that company also is in the midst of a transformation from traditional O&G to a broad based energy company and likely used it for an excuse to kickstart their long-term strategy. Which is always risky because I saw some of their best people take packages.

I dunno. I see insane valuations. I see the utter insanity of the crypto markets, and it all feels like a house of cards.

Right. I get it. I still think it's too focused on the outliers but I get it. It could be the same pattern.

Edit to add: Comparisons to 08/09 are likely unfair though, since that was (hopefully) a once in a lifetime type event.

Eh that is probably more accurate than Grantham who thinks we are looking at 1929. He could be right but sometimes I wonder if these big money guys talked to someone who has an economics background. Back in 1929, they didn't have the work of Keynes, Nash, and Friedman to work off of, or the benefit of high frequency trading.

[noxiousdog]

RM9, I think you're right. The Buffett Indicator has a good track record and it's really, really high right now.

However, I acknowledge the counter arguments. GDP has less meaning as we go to multinationals and that interest rates are super low, so what else are you going to do with your money? The S&P PE is approximately 40 at the moment which is about a 2.5% earnings yield. 10 Year t-bills are 1.2%. With a 5-10 year time horizon, you're still better off in stocks even allowing for risk.

[Carpet_pissr]

FWIW there have been some hard corrections in that 12 year bull cycle.

But I’m really not making a case either way - struggling to Susa out some meaning and direction myself.

But I think we can ALL agree, as rational investors, that the answer to the question posited is unknowable. We have pages (including myself of course) of people making cases for and against whether or not the market is overheated, ready to burst, etc. Or not.

We. Don’t. Know.

If we make investing decisions STARTING from the premise that future market movements are unknowable, doesn’t it make sense to just stay in...always...and average out the bull/bear runs? We know they happen. That’s the one thing we know. That the market is cyclical.

Sure, that’s a boring as hell approach, and it’s one Ive struggled with mightily ever since I’ve had the sense enough to understand its power and logic.

[RunningMn9]

doesn’t it make sense to just stay in...always...and average out the bull/bear runs? We know they happen. That’s the one thing we know. That the market is cyclical.

That depends on your time horizon. That strategy would work perfectly for my 19 yr old son. It would work fine for my 46 year old self. Probably not a not as ideal for my parents.

If you have time, it doesn't really make sense to worry about it, if you are invested in the market (something like VTI). But that's not the question that I was thinking about, I was just thinking about whether or not we are currently in a bubble. To me, it feels like we are.

I still have all of my money invested one way or another, so it's not like I'm sitting on a pile of gold bars or something. My 401(k) is still doing what it does, and if the market tanks, I'll just dollar cost average on the way down. That's a different question though, than whether or not we are in a bubble.

[RunningMn9]

We're in a world where people are paying money for dogecoins.

[malchior]

If we make investing decisions STARTING from the premise that future market movements are unknowable, doesn’t it make sense to just stay in...always...and average out the bull/bear runs? We know they happen. That’s the one thing we know. That the market is cyclical.

For most of us, I suspect this is the way. If you are an active investor it really should be money you can gamble with. Otherwise, set your portfolio to match your risk tolerance and let it ride. Revisit it periodically to match current risk profile, rinse, repeat.

Edit: FWIW - I actually just had an in-depth discussion around this with my financial advisor. He mentioned I could take a whole lot less risk and still hit my target (retire at 58). I need about 5% to get there going forward. He said I'm in an interesting position where I can take on more risk right now because I might be able to shave a couple years off if I can average 7-8% and the downside if I miss is probably near a wash. Time is still on my side there. Nothing is certain to be sure but it made sense. That has certainly impacted my thinking about how to plan.

Sure, that’s a boring as hell approach, and it’s one Ive struggled with mightily ever since I’ve had the sense enough to understand its power and logic.

It is the only rational one for most of us. When you get wealthy enough, you can choose to take on more risk, set up hedge strategies, or simply get defensive but most of us don't have that luxury. We need time working for us.

[LordMortis]

doesn’t it make sense to just stay in...always...and average out the bull/bear runs? We know they happen. That’s the one thing we know. That the market is cyclical.

That depends on your time horizon. That strategy would work perfectly for my 19 yr old son. It would work fine for my 46 year old self. Probably not a not as ideal for my parents.

If you have time, it doesn't really make sense to worry about it, if you are invested in the market (something like VTI). But that's not the question that I was thinking about, I was just thinking about whether or not we are currently in a bubble. To me, it feels like we are.

I still have all of my money invested one way or another, so it's not like I'm sitting on a pile of gold bars or something. My 401(k) is still doing what it does, and if the market tanks, I'll just dollar cost average on the way down. That's a different question though, than whether or not we are in a bubble.

For my 50 year old self who is looking for how far ahead the exit ramp it doesn't make sense but we are also at There Ain't No Alternative. I had been building CDs to protect myself but CDs pay nothing. Right now I am coming to grips with building cash and not letting it burn a hole in my pocket. I want to build my VTI but I just can't justify the pace at which is climbing, so ironically I'm missing out on the climb. I had been buying on the dip but the climbs are outpacing the dips so extreme that I'm like ouch.

I am wholly ignorant of what keeps this floating. Retail investors with their $1200 and $600 checks isn't enough to do this. Gamblers without sports isn't enough to do this. Is not being able to travel and vacation and eat out and luxury spend enough? I don't know. It's enough to drive the new housing market to not be able to keep pace and the new starts drive a lot of secondary markets. All I know, is if could go back to November and take back my covered calls for SPY, VT, and VTI what seemed like outrageous valuations, I would. The rest I would continue playing but those cores of my portfolio, I should not have seen the $$ and just let them be. In November I was like how long can this thing last. What does the whole market think it's Tesla or Bitcoin? by the end of January I was How long can this thing last? What does the whole market think it's Tesla or Bitcoin? I am not on a train toward How long can this thing last? What does the whole market think it's Tesla or Bitcoin?

Really I think it's the combo of money printing/staying at home to save/and not seeing anywhere to put your money while the market divorces from valuation.

The tech bubble sure does seem like a reasonable history rhymes with a COVID and None Dare it Call it QE cherry and icing. Not the housing collapse but tech seems to be driving the stock market and every week there is a new hot spac knocking its initial evaluation out the window. It may be time to brush up one what popping fore shadow was and how it may or may not show again based on the difference between today and 1998.

[malchior]

RM9, I think you're right. The Buffett Indicator has a good track record and it's really, really high right now.[/url]

I'm in the middle of proving out the idea much of this is driven by outliers. Tesla's market cap is just shy of a trillion. Tesla's P/E is 1200. It is in ludicrous territory. A solid company like Proctor and Gamble has a market cap of 300 billion or so trading at a P/E of about 25. That isn't wacky territory. FWIW Kraft Heinz is trading at P/E of 120 and is Berkshire has 27% of it. So even Buffet is not following to some capacity the metric named after him.

However, I acknowledge the counter arguments. GDP has less meaning as we go to multinationals and that interest rates are super low, so what else are you going to do with your money? The S&P PE is approximately 40 at the moment which is about a 2.5% earnings yield. 10 Year t-bills are 1.2%. With a 5-10 year time horizon, you're still better off in stocks even allowing for risk.

Right but again if I'm right this figure is heavily distorted by outliers. I've been researching this for a few days and haven't found an easily consumable clean data export on it. That said, I did some manual work on it. Approximately only 60 or so of the 500 companies have a P/E above the average of ~40. I haven't calculated the median yet but I'd eyeball it in the low 20s. The MK.1 eyeball sees what appears to be a normal distribution on P/E ratio from 500 - 50 in the S&P 500. After that it quickly shoots off into space. That is why I wouldn't call it an overall market bubble. Instead, I think there is solid evidence there are a set of bubble stocks. Even then some of them are defendable. AMZN trading at 70 P/E is almost defendable considering its YoY growth history. Apple at 2.27T is trading at 34 or so. That actually isn't that crazy for some of the same reasons.

[noxiousdog]

RM9, I think you're right. The Buffett Indicator has a good track record and it's really, really high right now.[/url]

I'm in the middle of proving out the idea much of this is driven by outliers. Tesla's market cap is just shy of a trillion. Tesla's P/E is 1200. It is in ludicrous territory. A solid company like Proctor and Gamble has a market cap of 300 billion or so trading at a P/E of about 25. That isn't wacky territory. FWIW Kraft Heinz is trading at P/E of 120 and is Berkshire has 27% of it. So even Buffet is not following to some capacity the metric named after him.

It's a broad based metric, so you can't really follow it on individual stocks. Also, Buffett has gone on the record that Kraft Heinz was a bad investment in retrospect

I take your broader meaning though, and that's why stuff is so weird right now.

[malchior]

It's a broad based metric, so you can't really follow it on individual stocks. Also, Buffett has gone on the record that Kraft Heinz was a bad investment in retrospect

Yeah that was meant to be a bit of a joke. My financial advisor put it and a couple of other companies like it in my portfolio (MNST is another). I want some representation in that market sector for diversification. However, I think I'm going to make a case that I'd like to avoid these bubble stocks in the future. He clued me in that I can have a 'no buy' list.

I take your broader meaning though, and that's why stuff is so weird right now.

Right and I don't know if I care about the indicator right now as long as I'm investing outside the bubble. Maybe? If the top of the market takes a hit does it go broad-based? Where would the money go? Into cash? Sounds dubious. People even ran out of bonds last March. Weird is definitely a word for it.

[LawBeefaroni]

I take your broader meaning though, and that's why stuff is so weird right now.

Right and I don't know if I care about the indicator right now as long as I'm investing outside the bubble. Maybe? If the top of the market takes a hit does it go broad-based? Where would the money go? Into cash? Sounds dubious. People even ran out of bonds last March. Weird is definitely a word for it.

In a panic, people run from everything. Margins get called, people make bad decisions, etc. The "good" investments are the first to recover but that's not always immedidate.



I've decided that I can't time this market. I'm trimming but still putting money into runners like KOPN and APPH/APPHW.

Meanwhile, BTC broke $50K briefly this am. Currently $49.2K.

[LawBeefaroni]

WSB/retail craziness isn't dead yet. SCKT up 600% today, was up over 700% at one point.

Another one my group was watching due to low float. A few were in. One guy had it at $2s, got out in the $12s this morning. Another hopped on at $20 today and sold at $26.

[Carpet_pissr]

Good lord, I have NO idea what to do with APHA (Aphria, weed). It's up 20% again today, and not far from the point I bought it in a separate account, PRE-MARKET, like a dumbass, last week.

I think the smart thing to do is sell.
Reasons:
1. Canada is not the US. A lot of this recent weed stock rocketeering is due to the Biden admin comments, as well as some states moving to decriminalize. APHA is a Canadian company, but it's moving up as if it were here in the US. WTF.
2. If the pending merger between it and Tilray were to fall through, I think it would crush this stock.
3. Feelings???

"Eric Volkman: We don't know when [the merger] is going to close. They are still sewing it together. Basically, we can say it's going to be a beefed-up version of Aphria. Aphria is going to hold about 63% of the merged entity. It's going to be called Tilray. They didn't delve into the reasons why, but I suspect because Tilray is a more recognized name. There's more visibility with that company.

[The new Tilray is] going to be big. According to them, by the standard of 12 months trailing revenue, they will be the largest marijuana company in the world, which is a weird metric to use. But anyway, they're going to be one of the biggest companies in the world."

[pr0ner]

WSB/retail craziness isn't dead yet. SCKT up 600% today, was up over 700% at one point.

Another one my group was watching due to low float. A few were in. One guy had it at $2s, got out in the $12s this morning. Another hopped on at $20 today and sold at $26.

Apparently SCKT released a DuraSled scanner for iPhones today which helped spike the stock.

[LawBeefaroni]

WSB/retail craziness isn't dead yet. SCKT up 600% today, was up over 700% at one point.

Another one my group was watching due to low float. A few were in. One guy had it at $2s, got out in the $12s this morning. Another hopped on at $20 today and sold at $26.

Apparently SCKT released a DuraSled scanner for iPhones today which helped spike the stock.

No way that drives it to $27 though. It's worth a few bucks at most. $10 on a great day. The rest is piling on.

[malchior]

WSB/retail craziness isn't dead yet. SCKT up 600% today, was up over 700% at one point.

Another one my group was watching due to low float. A few were in. One guy had it at $2s, got out in the $12s this morning. Another hopped on at $20 today and sold at $26.

Apparently SCKT released a DuraSled scanner for iPhones today which helped spike the stock.

No way that drives it to $27 though. It's worth a few bucks at most. $10 on a great day. The rest is piling on.

Volume was 75 M 225M shares versus 0.25M typical. I suspect there is a healthy mix of algo trading in there. I'm beginning to form a belief that the retail guys are scaring up interest and the algos are moving in to 'tax them' by offering them up liquidity. Essentially, "If you want to be stupid we will rob you blind. Good luck with your stonks, gents."

Edit: Feed just refreshed on me.

[LordMortis]

The third Friday of the month after the Robinhood news week must be rolling around. The value of my options (covered calls sold) is going down much faster than the value of my stocks... Which is making my portfolio actually look more valuable (up .07%) in spite of being down about .5% today. It's a long way away from making my stupid covered calls on my index funds in the park of taking off the table and never being put back again, though.

I wonder what happens between now and Friday to the equities themselves and if people play hot potato with all of these options, trying to strike and sell while prices are what they are. (Or is that musical chairs?)

[Zaxxon]

I continue to play TSLA volatility via covered calls, puts, and the occasional tax-advantaged account straight share buy/sell. In at $769, out at $794 today.

Also added a tiny position in BTC for the hell of it so I can be like LawBeef. Fully plan to lose much of that, but having a small amount of skin in the game will cause me to follow it more closely.

[LawBeefaroni]

When I opened my Tzero account, I put $200 each in everything they offered (BTC, ETH, RVN). Wanted to see how each worked. I bought more BTC weekly or so and ETH a few times a month. Never touched RVN because why?

Checked it today and it was worth over $750. Sold $200 worth to drop cost basis to $0 and will let the rest ride.

[Zaxxon]

Nice.

[LawBeefaroni]

It shows how crazy this market is. I bought it just to see how the account cleared and what the gas fee was. Worse than throwing darts. And it was a 4x.

I'm not sure what to make of all this.

When it does roll over, it's going to roll over hard on the "little guys."

[Zaxxon]

It shows how crazy this market is. I bought it just to see how the account cleared and what the gas fee was. Worse than throwing darts. And it was a 4x.

I'm not sure what to make of all this.

When it does roll over, it's going to roll over hard on the "little guys."

Yep.

[pr0ner]

A couple of my stocks got the Buffet/Berkshire boost today, which I find much more reassuring than a WSB boost.

[LawBeefaroni]

BTC $54.5K.
APPHW getting some love.


Not much else to report, everything goes up, just another day in crazytown.

[LordMortis]

BTC $54.5K.
APPHW getting some love.


Not much else to report, everything goes up, just another day in crazytown.

It all went down yesterday, so whichever. I'll be closing my UNFI when the option gets bought but that's it for me. I was looking at PFE being down to $34.50 but then I keep reminding myself that I'm building cash. We'll see how I feel about that on Monday when the UNFI money comes back to my pocket.

[LawBeefaroni]

BTC $54.5K.
APPHW getting some love.


Not much else to report, everything goes up, just another day in crazytown.

It all went down yesterday, so whichever. I'll be closing my UNFI when the option gets bought but that's it for me. I was looking at PFE being down to $34.50 but then I keep reminding myself that I'm building cash. We'll see how I feel about that on Monday when the UNFI money comes back to my pocket.

I was flat yesterday, which in this environment felt like being down but by any measure others than daily we're at record levels.


RVN up 100% in a week. Another one I passed on putting more money in.

[xwraith]

Hmm,

I've legged in effectively into a couple of covered straddles in AMD right at $90 for March which the stock seems to be oscillating around. Next week I'm going to be looking at closing the calls and rolling out the puts to April, but if I stay ATM I'm really only getting $2 in credit and IV keeps trending down.

The one April GME put I bought weeks ago is up 10% and the stock continues to drop. I envisioned a quicker drop though and I'm starting to wonder if I should just close it out for a small profit. Alternatively, I'm pondering converting it into a bear put spread by selling something around the $30 level. That said maybe just keep watching the stock drop and hope it crosses my breakeven point around 36.

[Carpet_pissr]

Sold a lot of weed (stonks:D) and really didn't find a compelling case to buy more of anything in my current portfolios. I'm either already WAY overweight in the ones I feel strongly about, or things in my watchlist seem super expensive.

To cash it goes I guess.

I put a little more in GM, just because they seem to really be ramping up and quite serious about EV with all their news in the past couple months. Just last year, I was slowly winding that position DOWN. :/ Still came out nicely on those, but would have come out much better if I had just held. I'm mostly intrigued and impressed by their deal with FEDEX with the new company. That EV logistics platform platform just might be a money factory for them. The global semiconductor shortage is real, and a real threat to them, but I plan to hold long term, so short term issues like production aren't as much of a concern.

"GM SPACtopus" has a nice ring to it:

"Morgan Stanley mobility analyst Adam Jonas is pretty adept at keeping his finger on the pulse of what’s hot with the investment community — and right now it’s all about SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) and EVs (Electric Vehicles). In a note to clients, Jonas highlights what he’s been hearing from the firm’s investors, namely that many are interested in exposure to “scalable technologies in electric, connected and autonomous vehicle end markets.”
Jonas suggests General Motors (GM) as a top pick in the space for these investors, because of its numerous EV and AV (autonomous vehicle) divisions. He likens these divisions, or arms if you will, as little "incubators" in the GM portfolio. In fact he has name for this portfolio: the ‘GM SPACtopus’

[LawBeefaroni]

Going to do a deep dive into COTY this weekend.

[Carpet_pissr]

Side note but related to my post above about GM:

Since they (GM) said no more gas vehicles in production by 2035, what does that do to the Exxon's of the world, as an investment?

What does Exxon (and BP, Chevron, etc of course) look like in 2035? Have they pivoted and turned half of their gas stations into charging stations? What does their stock look like? I have to believe they have seen this writing on the wall for a LONG time now, and likely have spent tens of millions studying it, if not more. When does Wall St. start to REALLY price in the inevitable EV future, for oil companies?

Maybe just as interesting: if the oil companies don't magically replace all the revenue they make from gasoline, where are the fund managers going to shift to as a result? Profits from gasoline won't go to zero by 2035, but I think we can assume they will be significantly less than they are today, right?

[Carpet_pissr]

Going to do a deep dive into COTY this weekend.

Why? Smell something?

[LawBeefaroni]

Going to do a deep dive into COTY this weekend.

Why? Smell something?

Got a few recommendations but always do my own homework. Unless it's a pure chart play.

[LordMortis]

Doubled down on PFE at $34.17 despite my earlier statement that I was exclusively building cash and putting it against VTI falling back in to the 190s to buy at 1 or 2 shares at a time... because I'm stupid.

[xwraith]

Sold some $90 April covered calls in AMD after closing them out when they hit 50% profit earlier this week.

My view is that AMD isn't going to break out anytime soon, but I'm looking to see if I can extract some value from the stock oscillating.

Still trying to roll out my AMD CSPs to April though being assigned wouldn't be the worse thing in the world. I'll just sell ATM Calls for a reasonable premium and based on market conditions see if I want to continue or just hold a small stock position after that.

Also decided to liquidate one of my old mutual funds -- the fund had closed a couple of years ago and it's performance has started to lag. I figured I'm going to rotate the funds out into a suitable ETF that had the same profile. Sold 1 106 April short put for IJR to start -- I'm a bit nervous about buying into these highs so keeping the rest in cash and see how things progress.

[pr0ner]

GME is spiking again today. Shares are back up to close to $80.

[xwraith]

GME is spiking again today. Shares are back up to close to $80.

It's heading up to $100 and somebody traded 10 million shares at one point. This makes no sense....